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Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd
Open accessAbstract
Migration is a striking behavioral strategy by which many animals enhance resource acquisition while reducing predation risk. Historically, the demographic benefits of such movements made migration common, but in many taxa the phenomenon is considered globally threatened. Here we describe a long‐term decline in the productivity of elk (Cervus elaphus) that migrate through intact wilderness areas to protected summer ranges inside Yellowstone National Park, USA. We attribute this decline to a long‐term reduction in the demographic benefits that ungulates typically gain from migration. Among migratory elk, we observed a 21‐year, 70% reduction in recruitment and a 4‐year, 19% depression in their pregnancy rate largely caused by infrequent reproduction of females that were young or lactating. In contrast, among resident elk, we have recently observed increasing recruitment and a high rate of pregnancy. Landscape‐level changes in habitat quality and predation appear to be responsible for the declining productivity of Yellowstone migrants. From 1989 to 2009, migratory elk experienced an increasing rate and shorter duration of green‐up coincident with warmer spring–summer temperatures and reduced spring precipitation, also consistent with observations of an unusually severe drought in the region. Migrants are also now exposed to four times as many grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) as resident elk. Both of these restored predators consume migratory elk calves at high rates in the Yellowstone wilderness but are maintained at low densities via lethal management and human disturbance in the year‐round habitats of resident elk. Our findings suggest that large‐carnivore recovery and drought, operating simultaneously along an elevation gradient, have disproportionately influenced the demography of migratory elk. Many migratory animals travel large geographic distances between their seasonal ranges. Changes in land use and climate that disparately influence such seasonal ranges may alter the ecological basis of migratory behavior, representing an important challenge for, and a powerful lens into, the ecology and conservation of migratory taxa.
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TL;DR
A long-term study of the Clarks Fork elk herd found that migratory elk productivity declined while resident elk productivity increased, with the decline linked to drought-related changes in vegetation phenology and greater exposure to recovering grizzly bears and wolves. The results suggest that migration’s demographic advantages can weaken even in protected wilderness when climate and predation patterns shift.
Key findings
- Migratory elk calf recruitment fell by 73.5% from 1989 to 2009, while resident recruitment declined to a breakpoint around 2002 and then increased. Over four winters, pregnancy was 70.6% for migrants (n = 75) versus 89.2% for residents (n = 65); the best model showed a quadratic age effect and an independent lower pregnancy probability for migratory status (P = 0.04).
- Among migratory females aged 4–14, lactating elk had a 21.4% pregnancy rate (3/14) compared with 86.7% (13/15) for non-lactating elk (P < 0.001). Resident pregnancy did not differ by lactation status (86.7% vs. 100%, P = 0.57).
- On the migratory summer range, green-up duration shortened by 1.3 days per year, totaling 27 days over 21 years, while peak NDVI and maximum NDVI increment increased. April–August temperatures rose, July temperature increased by about 4°C, and April–May precipitation declined.
- Migratory elk were exposed to roughly four times as many grizzly bear groups and wolves as resident elk; average wolf numbers were 35.2 versus 8.1. In an overlapping study, bears caused 58–60% of calf deaths and wolves 15–17%.
Methods
- The study compared migratory and resident subpopulations of the approximately 4,500-animal Clarks Fork elk herd using winter helicopter and ground surveys from 1989 to 2009, summer recruitment surveys from 2007 to 2009, and captures in 2007–2008 with GPS or VHF collars. Pregnancy was assessed by PSPB analysis or palpation, and body condition, rump fat, and chest girth were measured.
- Analyses included piecewise regression, generalized linear mixed models with AIC selection, t tests, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, and Fisher’s exact tests. Vegetation phenology was measured with AVHRR NDVI from 1989 to 2009, climate data came from PRISM, and predator counts came from Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, National Park Service, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service time series.
- Seasonal ranges were delineated using minimum convex polygons from GPS-collared migratory and resident elk; forested cover was excluded from NDVI sampling, and irrigated field use by resident elk was quantified from GPS locations.
Limitations
- Stated: the authors did not directly estimate cause-specific calf mortality for their study population and instead assumed predation rates were similar to those from an overlapping 2003–2005 study. They also could not document population trends for black bears or mountain lions, and they were unsure why lower pregnancy among lactating migrants was not accompanied by lower body fat.
- Evident: the design is observational and correlational, so the links among drought, phenology, predator abundance, and elk demography are not experimentally isolated. Migratory and resident elk differ in range, management exposure, and age structure, and predator abundance is used as an index rather than a direct measure of predation on the study animals.
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55 Own result · 21 Own interpretation · 18 No full text of the sources · 11 Partly supported · 9 Sources not found · 6 Not checked yet · 6 No basis given · 4 Supported so far · 2 Supported · 2 Own method · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
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In the paper
“Following these periods of poor nutrition, feeding upon emergent vegetation at the onset of the growing season is adaptive because such highly digestible forage promotes fat gain and reproduction (Cook et al. 2004a, Parker et al. 2009).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cook et al. 2004a source
- Partly supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘Minimizing the maximum detriment to free-ranging ungulates’ section describes emerging shoots as high-quality forage and says ungulates should select nutritious food in spring. The ‘Conclusion and perspectives’ and ‘Body fat’ sections link nutrient intake, fat reserves, and reproduction, but place replenishment of reserves chiefly in summer and autumn; they do not specifically establish that feeding on vegetation at the onset of spring promotes fat gain. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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In the paper
“Most of this attention has focused on habitat degradation and conspicuous physical barriers to migration (e.g., fences and roads), which have reduced prominent migratory populations (Harris et al. 2009).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Harris et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Threats and Discussion sections identify habitat loss, fences, and transportation corridors as threats to migrations and migratory populations. The paper does not establish that most attention to migration declines has focused on those threats; it also identifies unsustainable hunting as a principal cause. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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In the paper
“For temperate species, the cold temperatures and deep snow of winter cause a steady decline in body mass (Parker et al. 2009)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Body Mass section says northern ungulates commonly lose body mass over winter, while the Energy Costs and Intake section describes increased movement costs in snow and cumulative energetic costs of cold. The paper does not establish that cold and deep snow cause a steady decline in body mass across temperate species specifically. The indexed passages do not provide page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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In the paper
“much empirical evidence indicates that pregnancy of temperate ungulates is influenced primarily by growing-season nutrition (Langvatn et al. 1996, Cook et al. 2004a, Parker et al. 2009).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Langvatn et al. 1996 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cook et al. 2004a source
- Supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 source
In “Animal condition: mass, body fat, body protein” (page not supplied), the paper says that conceiving and carrying a foetus to term are determined primarily by summer conditions and autumn body mass. “Conclusion and perspectives” adds that summer nutrient availability replenishes body reserves and drives subsequent reproductive success. (LLM, conf=0.91)
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In the paper
“Therefore, one likely mechanism for a climateinduced reduction in the reproductive performance of migratory elk is a ''mismatch'' between vegetation greenup and the period of lactation (Post and Forchhammer 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Post and Forchhammer 2008 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction describes a potential mismatch between plant growth and the resource demands of lactation, and the Abstract reports reduced reproductive success associated with that mismatch. The study concerns migratory caribou in West Greenland, not elk, so it does not establish the proposed mechanism specifically for elk. (LLM, conf=0.87)
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In the paper
“In temperate ungulates, parturition is timed to coincide with peak forage quality so that females can meet the high energetic demands of lactation (Parker et al. 2009).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Energy costs and intake section says lactation brings females’ highest daily energy costs, and the Conclusion says parturition is synchronized with the onset of spring green-up. But the Body protein section distinguishes species that calve near green-up and use dietary intake from earlier-calving species that rely on body stores. The paper therefore does not establish that parturition in temperate ungulates generally coincides with *peak forage quality*. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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In the paper
“Although the fecundity of adult females is more stable (Gaillard et al. 2000), poor summer-autumn forage conditions can reduce pregnancy probability among adults carrying the high costs of lactation (Cook et al. 2004a, Parker et al. 2009).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cook et al. 2004a source
- Supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 source
In the Body Fat section, the paper links summer–autumn nutrition to autumn fat reserves, notes the high energetic costs of lactation, and associates low fat reserves with failure to breed. In “Minimizing the maximum detriment to free-ranging ungulates,” it says lactational demands can lead to lower pregnancy rates when habitat nutrition is inadequate. Page numbers are not available in the supplied passages. (LLM, conf=0.93)
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In the paper
“we interpret the reduced pregnancy of Yellowstone migrants as being caused primarily by droughtinduced changes in habitat quality.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cook et al. 2004a source
- Partly supportedcites Parker et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Body Fat section (page unavailable) links poor nutrition and low body fat to reduced breeding in elk. The Conclusion and perspectives section says climatic changes can affect forage timing and maternal condition. Neither passage addresses reduced pregnancy in Yellowstone migrants or establishes drought-induced habitat change as its primary cause; the citing sentence presents that interpretation as the citing authors’ own. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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In the paper
“Migrants are also now exposed to four times as many grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) as resident elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“Here we describe a long-term decline in the productivity of elk (Cervus elaphus) that migrate through intact wilderness areas to protected summer ranges inside Yellowstone National Park, USA.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“summer surveys from 2007-2009 indicated that few calves remained in the migratory subpopulation by the end of summer, highlighting a role of summer conditions.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“a 4-year, 19% depression in their pregnancy rate”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“migratory elk spend substantial portions of calving and summer seasons within all four wolf territories.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“From 1989 to 2009, winter calf recruitment of migratory elk declined linearly by 73.5% (F 1,19 ¼ 53.4,P , 0.001; Fig. 2A).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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In the paper
“Among migratory elk, we observed a 21-year, 70% reduction in recruitment”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“but are maintained at low densities via lethal management and human disturbance in the year-round habitats of resident elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“surveys conducted from 2005 to 2009 indicated that 47.5% 6 0.03% (mean 6 SE) are currently migratory.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“From 1989 to 2009, migratory elk experienced an increasing rate and shorter duration of green-up”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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“yet a 21-year reduction in habitat quality was evident only on the summer range of migratory elk (Fig. 4C-F; Appendix C).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“During summers from 1989 to 2009, the number of grizzly bear groups observed on the migrants' range increased fourfold (F 1,19 ¼ 4.73, P ¼ 0.05; Fig. 5A)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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- Rests on an assumption: The grizzly bear group observation time series is a valid index of grizzly abundance on the migratory elk range.
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In the paper
“we observed low pregnancy rates of migratory elk in early winter (e.g., as low as 57% in January 2007; Fig. 3A)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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“a one-sided K-S test indicated that the migratory subpopulation was older than the resident subpopulation (D 1,85 ¼ 0.28, P ¼ 0.03; Fig. 3B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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“We found that poor performance of lactating females can also result from a reduction in the overall duration of optimal foraging opportunities associated with green-up.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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“On average, migratory elk experienced higher and later peak NDVI values than resident elk (Fig. 4B; Appendix C)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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“yet tended to be fatter in winter than resident elk (Appendix B)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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“as well as a reduction in green-up duration (P , 0.001; Fig. 4F) of 1.3 days per year, or a total of 27 days over 21 years.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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“and peak NDVI (P , 0.001)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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“with an added effect of migratory status (i.e., pregnancy was lower for migratory elk independently of age; P ¼ 0.04).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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“For the migratory elk we studied, the reduced pregnancy of young and lactating females coincided with phenological changes (Fig. 4F, D) that are consistent with observations of a severe, long-term drought in Yellowstone and the surrounding region.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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“the percentage of body fat in September of non-lactating migrants (17.4% 6 0.5%) was greater (P , 0.001) than that of non-lactating residents (12.9% 6 0.5%; Fig. 3D; Appendix B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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“In the migratory subpopulation, the pregnancy rate of lactating females from 4 to 14 years old (21.4%, 3/14) was lower (P , 0.001) than that of non-lactating females (86.7%, 13/15; Fig. 3C).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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“By contrast, the pregnancy rates of lactating (86.7%, 13/15) and non-lactating (100%, 6/6) residents did not differ (P ¼ 0.57).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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“Over four winters of sampling, the pregnancy rate of migrants was 70.6% (n ¼ 75), vs. 89.2%(n ¼ 65) for residents.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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In the paper
“July temperature was negatively related to the duration of green-up (July, F 1,19 ¼ 6.47, P ¼ 0.02, r 2 ¼ 0.25).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“In contrast, no grizzlies were detected on the year-round range of resident elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“In our own study, migratory elk experienced the higher risk of wolf predation (Fig. 6B, C), yet tended to be fatter in winter than resident elk (Appendix B)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“Over 21 years, April-August temperatures increased markedly (F 1,19 ¼ 10.93, P ¼ 0.001; Appendix D).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“and weakly associated with a prolonged duration of green-up (F 1,19 ¼ 2.63, P ¼ 0.12, r 2 ¼ 0.12).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Our best-fitting model indicated that pregnancy was a quadratic function of age (i.e., pregnancy probability was lowest for young and old females; P , 0.001)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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In the paper
“lactator body fat levels did not differ (P ¼ 0.76) between migrants (10.5% 6 0.6%) and residents (10.7% 6 0.5%) (Fig. 3D; Appendix B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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In the paper
“Cumulative April-May precipitation also declined (F 1,19 ¼ 5.11, P ¼ 0.04; Appendix D).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“Recent summer range surveys (2007)(2008)(2009) revealed that the calf : cow ratio of the migratory subpopulation had declined approximately to the wintertime level by the end of each summer (15:100 6 0.58:100, mean 6 SE; Fig. 2B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
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In the paper
“Particularly striking was an increase in July temperature of approximately 48C (F 1,19 ¼ 5.87, P ¼ 0.03).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“Not only did we fail to detect comparable phenological trends on the range of resident elk”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“These include increasing trends in the maximum NDVI increment (P ¼ 0.04; Fig. 4D)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“Cumulative April-May precipitation was negatively related to peak NDVI (F 1,19 ¼ 6.08, P ¼ 0.02, r 2 ¼ 0.24)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“Due to spatial patterns of large-carnivore recovery in the GYE, migratory elk in our study population now encounter far higher numbers of grizzly bears and wolves than do resident elk (Fig. 5A, B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“In addition to experiencing similarly disparate patterns of predation and land use, migratory and resident elk in our study have experienced a divergence in the duration of the summer period when high-quality forage is available to them.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“Comparable calf : cow ratios collected during summers 2007-2009 suggest that calf numbers had reached wintertime levels by the end of summer.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“The number of calves observed per 100 adult females in each subpopulation during winter from 1989 to 2009 indicates a long-term decline in the recruitment of migratory elk”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“These phenological trends were related to reduced spring precipitation and warmer spring-summer temperatures (Appendix D: Fig. D1A, B).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) that accounted for individual recaptures (see Results) indicated that migrants had lower rates of pregnancy than residents after accounting for a quadratic function of age.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“a recent modeling study based on the life history of a GYE elk population indicated that changes in elk calf survival explained 93% of the variation in calf : cow ratios (Harris et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Harris et al. 2008 source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Selection for ephemeral, high-quality forage is the primary driver of migration in ungulates (Fryxell et al. 1988, Fryxell andSinclair 1988).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell et al. 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Fryxell and Sinclair 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“monitoring of elk movements during the course of this work did not reveal any individuals switching between migratory strategies”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > FORUM
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In the paper
“Landscape-level changes in habitat quality and predation appear to be responsible for the declining productivity of Yellowstone migrants.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“they are more reliable in the open habitats characteristic of our study area (Bonenfant et al. 2005)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bonenfant et al. 2005 source
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In the paper
“we subsequently validated that the MCPs were representative of both subpopulations by determining that 83.8% 6 4.6% of summer locations of migrants and 92.8 6 3% of year-round locations of residents fell inside their boundaries.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“We attribute this decline to a long-term reduction in the demographic benefits that ungulates typically gain from migration.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“Because grizzly bears and wolves hunt young calves (Barber-Meyer et al. 2008)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber-Meyer et al. 2008 source
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In the paper
“these removals typically occur in late summer and fall, after most elk calf predation in this system (Barber-Meyer et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber-Meyer et al. 2008 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“After arriving on high-elevation summer ranges, northern temperate migrants continue to benefit from high forage quality associated with cool weather and prolonged snowmelt, allowing them to attain higher body mass and pregnancy rates than their resident counterparts (Albon andLangvatn 1992, Hebblewhite andMerrill 2007).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We show that two factors, large-carnivore recovery and a severe, long-term drought, appear to be reducing the benefits of migration in this population.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
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In the paper
“largely caused by infrequent reproduction of females that were young or lactating.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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In the paper
“Whereas prior research conducted from 1979 to 1980 found that 81% of elk in our study population were migratory (Rudd et al. 1983)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Rudd et al. 1983
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings suggest that large-carnivore recovery and drought, operating simultaneously along an elevation gradient, have disproportionately influenced the demography of migratory elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
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- Rests on an assumption: The observed decline in migratory elk productivity is not primarily due to other predators or unmeasured factors.
In the paper
“For a portion of the migratory period, dominant predators such as lions (Panthera leo) and wolves (Canis lupus) must tend their young at den sites that were established on the dry-season or winter range of migratory prey, and are thus temporarily limited from following prey to the wet-season or summer range (Fryxell et al. 1988).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell et al. 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“In general, the fecundity of young females is highly sensitive to environmental variation (Gaillard et al. 2000), including climatic and phenological conditions similar to those we have documented (Fig. 4D, F).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Gaillard et al. 2000 source
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In the paper
“a rigorous study of this question, one which included sampling of migratory calves from our study population, was conducted in an overlapping area from 2003to 2005(Barber-Meyer et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber-Meyer et al. 2008 source
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None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“In contrast to classic predictions of the benefits of migration in ungulates (Fryxell et al. 1988, Fryxell andSinclair 1988), our analysis revealed poor performance of elk that migrate annually into wilderness habitats of YNP.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell et al. 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Fryxell and Sinclair 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our findings suggest that when the ecological conditions that favor migration are diminished, declines might occur even in wilderness land- scapes that are highly protected.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such disparate rates of predation on migratory ungulates, occurring across management jurisdictions along a wilderness frontier, are an unintended and littlerecognized consequence of restoring large carnivores to the landscapes they once occupied.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“Thus, our work suggests a new mechanism by which large-scale changes in vegetation phenology may reduce a key benefit of ungulate migration.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“probably because of a high rate of lethal removal (24% per year, due to chronic wolf-cattle conflict) on the range of resident elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
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In the paper
“There, lower predation on resident elk that benefited from wolf avoidance of urban habitat resulted in the dominance of resident over migratory elk by an order of magnitude (Hebblewhite et al. 2005).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hebblewhite et al. 2005 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“probably because so many migratory females lose their FORUM 1252 Ecology, Vol.94, No. 6 FORUM nursing calves early in the growing season via direct predation (Barber-Meyer et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber-Meyer et al. 2008 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coupled with the low pregnancy rate of migratory elk, high rates of summer calf predation are consistent with the low numbers of migratory calves we observed at summer's end.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Rates of calf predation are very similar for the migratory elk studied.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, we suspect that a negative plane of nutrition associated with late-summer drought in the weeks prior to breeding may account for the low pregnancy of migrant lactators.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
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In the paper
“In a second study area, wolf removal, hay feeding, and prescribed burning outside the park subsidized resident elk, causing a fourfold increase in their numbers relative to migratory elk within BNP (Hebblewhite et al. 2006).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hebblewhite et al. 2006 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, cultivation in the lower elevation foothills brings human disturbance, predator control, and cropland irrigation that can function as subsidies to resident ungulates (Hebblewhite et al. 2006).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hebblewhite et al. 2006 source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In revealing the declining productivity of migratory elk inhabiting one of North America's best protected wilderness areas, our findings also highlight a new and difficult challenge to the conservation of migratory ungulates.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings suggest that landscape-level changes in vegetation phenology and predation pressure represent an important additional mechanism capable of reducing the demographic benefits of migration in ungulates.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Probably not a substantial claim. 21
- It may state two separate claims as one. 37
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“high annual NDVI increments (i.e., rapid vegetation emergence) have been negatively related to juvenile growth and survival (Pettorelli et al. 2007).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Pettorelli et al. 2007 source
The Discussion reports a negative effect of rapid green-up on juvenile growth and an associated negative effect on survival. The Vegetation dynamics and early performance section specifies that the relationship varied by population: maximal NDVI increase was not related to mountain goat kid survival at Caw Ridge. (LLM, conf=0.91)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Indeed, elk density and winter severity have been decreasing in the system for many years (Wilmers andGetz 2005, Eberhardt et al. 2007).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Wilmers and Getz 2005 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Weather Data Analysis and Discussion sections report declining winter snow depth and a shorter period of snow cover since 1948, supporting the winter-severity part of the claim. They do not report that elk density has been decreasing for many years; the Discussion instead predicts higher elk densities if snow levels continue to decline. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Eberhardt et al. 2007 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“In recent years, however, concern has grown over global declines in ungulate migration, including such diverse species as wildebeest (Connochaetus taurinus), saiga (Saiga tatarica), pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) (Berger 2004, Bolger et al. 2008, Festa-Bianchet et al. 2011).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Berger 2004 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bolger et al. 2008 source
- Supportedcites Festa-Bianchet et al. 2011 source
The Caribou declines section reports that some western mountain caribou herds have stopped migrating between traditional seasonal ranges. That supports the caribou example for which this source is cited; the sentence also cites other works for the other species. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Prior research has revealed diverse influences of recent drought on the region's wildfire activity and snowpack (Westerling et al. 2006), amphibian populations (McMenamin et al. 2008), and bat reproduction (Adams 2010).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Westerling et al. 2006 source
- Supportedcites McMenamin et al. 2008 source
The Abstract links recent drought and wetland desiccation to severe declines in Yellowstone amphibians. The Results likewise report reduced amphibian populations and diversity linked to changes in the region’s hydrology. The other effects in the citing sentence are attributed to different sources. (LLM, conf=0.94)
- Not matchedcites Adams 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In migratory birds in Europe, such a mismatch between the springtime arrival of migrants and the phenology of their breeding range may be linked to recent population declines (Both et al. 2006).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Both et al. 2006 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The supplementary Table 1A reports recent population declines in several pied flycatcher populations in the Netherlands and gives caterpillar peak dates for their breeding areas. The passages available from our copy do not establish a mismatch between spring arrival and breeding-range phenology or link that mismatch to the declines. (LLM, conf=0.78)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This latter finding is consistent with the observations that elk in Yellowstone do not strongly avoid wolves during winter (Fortin et al. 2005, Mao et al. 2005) and do not avoid foraging on two preferred browse species, willow and aspen, even in high-risk areas of the ecosystem (Creel et al. 2009, Kauffman et al. 2010).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fortin et al. 2005 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Mao et al. 2005 source
- Partly supportedcites Creel et al. 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract reports that elk shifted from grazing to browsing when wolves were present, which supports the general point that they continued to browse. It does not identify willow or aspen, or establish that elk continued foraging on those species in high-risk areas. The winter wolf-avoidance clause is attributed to other citations in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.82)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“In the only prior case for ungulates that we know of, recent arctic warming advanced vegetation green-up more rapidly than female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) advanced their parturition date, with negative effects on calf production (Post and Forchhammer 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Post and Forchhammer 2008 source
The Results and discussion report that plant growth advanced by approximately two weeks while the onset of caribou parturition remained comparatively stable. They link that shift to increased calf mortality and a fourfold decline in calf production. The phrase “only prior case known to the authors” describes the citing authors’ knowledge, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.93)
hedgeddirectSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“recent work found no differences in the body fat levels and pregnancy rates of Yellowstone elk before and after wolf reintroduction (White et al. 2011).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites White et al. 2011 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract reports nearly identical age-adjusted body fat before and after wolf restoration, and the Results report similar pregnancy rates for elk aged 4–9 years. But the Results also report higher post-wolf body fat and pregnancy rates for elk older than 9 years. Thus, saying there were no differences across Yellowstone elk overgeneralizes the findings. (LLM, conf=0.89)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“some caribou declines may be linked to subtler changes in plant phenology, fire regimes, the accessibility of caribou to their predators, and densities of alternative prey (Vors andBoyce 2009, Festa-Bianchet et al. 2011).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Vors and Boyce 2009 source
The Conclusion (page not provided) links changes in plant phenology to reduced calf production and higher calf mortality, and reports that increased forest-fire frequency has adversely affected caribou condition and movement. The section on spatiotemporal species overlap explains how alternative prey support more predators and increase predation pressure on caribou. Together, these passages support the claim’s cautious wording that such changes may be linked to some declines. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Partly supportedcites Festa-Bianchet et al. 2011 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Boreal and Mountain caribou section links declines to habitat changes, predation, altered alternative-prey abundance, and wolves’ travel efficiency; it also says increasing fire events could reduce recruitment and survival. The Migratory Tundra caribou section discusses changing plant-growth timing, but says that change may benefit caribou rather than linking it to declines. No page numbers were available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“population declines may be linked to trophic mismatch (Both et al. 2006)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Both et al. 2006 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The supplementary table lists pied flycatcher population trends and caterpillar peak dates, but does not say that a mismatch between breeding and food availability is linked to the declines. Searches for “mismatch” and for breeding timing relative to caterpillar peaks found no decisive passage; the main article text appears absent from our copy. (LLM, conf=0.70)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Could not verify
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we detected no influence of density dependence (regression of calf : cow ratio on abundance, F 1,12 ¼ 1.0, P ¼ 0.34) or winter severity (regression of calf : cow ratio on cumulative snow water equivalent [Wolverine Creek SNO-TEL, 10 km northwest of the core winter range of migrants], F 1,21 ¼ 3.02, P ¼ 0.1).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“coincident with warmer spring-summer temperatures and reduced spring precipitation”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contrast, among resident elk, we have recently observed increasing recruitment and a high rate of pregnancy.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Long-term monitoring has revealed an associated shift in the spatial distribution of the population over 21 years, driven by high recruitment levels (see Fig. 2A) and eastward expansion in the resident subpopulation (Appendix A).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We detected a similar warming trend on the year-round range of resident elk, but no change in spring precipitation (Appendix D).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Though only 0.01% of the residents' year-round range is irrigated, 23% (3/13) of resident females spent 47-52% of their time in irrigated fields during July and August.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Calf recruitment of resident elk declined to a breakpoint (2002 6 1.5, P , 0.001), then steadily increased (F 1,19 ¼ 5.71, P ¼ 0.007; Fig. 2A).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The calf : cow ratio of resident elk (gray circles) declined to a breakpoint (2002 6 1.5, P , 0.001) and then steadily increased (F 1,21 ¼ 5.71, P ¼ 0.007).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From 1989 to 2009, maximum NDVI increment (C) did not change on the resident range but (D) increased on the migratory range”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over the same period, green-up duration (E) did not change on resident range but (F) decreased on migratory range”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Lactating females were pregnant at a lower rate than non-lactators in the migratory population, whereas lactation did not affect the pregnancy rate of residents.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Several wolf packs now occupy the year-round range of migratory elk (pack numbers shown above bars), but only one pack has occupied the resident elk range.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The body fat (mean þ SE) of lactating migrants was significantly lower than that of non-lactating migrants, but did not differ from that of lactating residents.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A one-sided K-S test (see Results) indicated that migratory elk had a higher proportion of older individuals than the residents, consistent with recent reductions in calf recruitment.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) groups (shown with fitted solid line and 95% CI in dashed lines) counted during summer observation flights from 1990 to 2008 within the year-round range of migratory elk increased over 21 years (no grizzlies were observed in flights over the range of resident elk).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Peak protein intake of temperate mountain ungulates has been shown to coincide with the annual maximum increment in NDVI (Hamel et al. 2009)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hamel et al. 2009 source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Agency observations were classified at the subpopulation level based on winter range associations of migratory and resident elk established previously via very high frequency (VHF) telemetry (Rudd et al. 1983), and validated through our own Global Positioning System (GPS) collaring during 2007-2010.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Rudd et al. 1983
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Migration is thought to have evolved in ungulates because in seasonal environments it affords prolonged access to high-quality forage and can reduce predator exposure (Fryxell and Sinclair 1988).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell and Sinclair 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Accordingly, the migrations of species such as Serengeti wildebeest, and Greater Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemonius) track vegetation green-up (Holdo et al. 2009, White et al. 2010, Sawyer and Kauffman 2011).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Holdo et al. 2009
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites White et al. 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Sawyer and Kauffman 2011 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contrast, resident elk are likely subsidized by the removal of large carnivores and by irrigated agriculture, contributing to their recent expansion.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Thus, reduced mortality due to predation is thought to benefit migratory individuals by increasing juvenile survival (Bolger et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bolger et al. 2008 source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In relatively pristine landscapes, such fitness benefits have promoted the abundance of migratory ungulates, which can outnumber their resident counterparts in some cases by an order of magnitude (Fryxell et al. 1988).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell et al. 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For instance, in the Serengeti Ecosystem, predation was found to be lower for migratory than for resident wildebeest (Sinclair 1984), and in Alberta, migratory elk reduced their wolf exposure by 70% in comparison with resident elk (Hebblewhite and Merrill 2007).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > INTRODUCTION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Sinclair 1984
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hebblewhite and Merrill 2007 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The influence of differential carnivore recovery and predation on the performance of partially migratory elk has previously been investigated in and around Banff National Park (BNP) in Alberta, Canada.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“suggesting a summer influence on the probability of conception that is at odds with the proposed mechanism.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“For instance, sexual maturity was delayed in populations of European red deer (Cervus elaphus) that experienced warmer springs and advanced phenology (Langvatn et al. 1996), probably because of reduced growth rates among calves and yearlings (Cook et al. 2004a).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Fluctuations in short-term energy balance are known to influence the pregnancy probability of domestic ungulates (e.g., National Research Council 1985, Fitz-Rodriguez et al. 2009), and may occur without large changes in body fat levels.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites National Research Council 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Fitz-Rodriguez et al. 2009 source
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“recent studies have described regional climatic changes as anomalous (within 1000-year [Pederson et al. 2011] and 14 000-year [Shuman 2011] contexts) and consistent with anthropogenic forcing (Barnett et al. 2008, Shuman 2011).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The latter climate effect was thought to be mediated by a nutritional limitation on lactating females, similar to recent findings among Rocky Mountain bats, including migratory populations (Adams 2010).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Adams 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Additionally, newly reintroduced wolves caused 15-17% of calf deaths, favoring young calves in summer (Barber-Meyer et al. 2008).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barber-Meyer et al. 2008 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Recent increases in the recruitment of resident elk are consistent with a likely nutritional subsidy from irrigated fields, coupled with lower rates of calf predation by grizzlies and wolves.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: In the year-round habitats of resident elk, large carnivores are limited by management removals following livestock depredations, and bears may be further limited by low tolerance for human activity.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An additional factor contributing to the reduced pregnancy rate of the migratory subpopulation was its older age structure (Fig. 3B), a likely result of sustained low recruitment in recent years.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“A secondary reason put forth for the historical dominance of migratory ungulates is that their seasonal movements reduce their exposure to predation (Fryxell et al. 1988, Fryxell andSinclair 1988).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryxell et al. 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Fryxell and Sinclair 1988
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“During that study, bears (primarily grizzlies) caused 58-60% of calf deaths (Barber-Meyer et al. 2008), more than three times the proportion estimated 15 years earlier in the same area 1).(Singer et al. 1997).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings newly link the region's drought to changes in vegetation phenology and the demographic benefits of ungulate migration.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, in the year-round habitats of resident elk, large carnivores are limited by management removals following livestock depredations, and bears may be further limited by a low tolerance for human activity.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: In the year-round habitats of resident elk, large carnivores are limited by management removals following livestock depredations, and bears may be further limited by low tolerance for human activity.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This apparent decline in the demographic benefits of migration coincided with growing numbers of large carnivores that prey on elk calves and a severe, long-term drought that appears to have reduced habitat quality.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The low pregnancy rate of migrants resulted in part from poor reproduction of young and lactating females (Fig. 3B, C), consistent with prior study of ungulates under nutritional limitation.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation appear to facilitate rapid growth of vegetation and reduce the time in which it is available to Yellowstone migrants on their summer range.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Female elk under nutritional stress may give birth to lighter calves with reduced growth rates, which can increase the window of calf vulnerability and risk of calf mortality (Singer et al. 1997, White et al. 2010).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Singer et al. 1997 source
- Not matchedcites White et al. 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Though birds are also known to benefit from abundant resources (Levey and Stiles 1992) and reduced predation risk (McKinnon et al. 2010) on disparate seasonal ranges”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“human influences on seasonal resource availability and nest predation have long been a concern in studies of Neotropical migratory birds (Robinson et al. 1995).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Robinson et al. 1995 source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As land migrants, ungulates appear particularly vulnerable to the physical obstruction of their migration routes in comparison with other migratory taxa.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper relies on this without support.
Many migratory elk calve before their spring migration.
“many migratory elk calve prior to their spring migration”
The paper relies on this without support.
The observed decline in migratory elk productivity is not primarily due to other predators or unmeasured factors.
“Although black bears (Ursus americanus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) also occur in the study area, we were unable to document trends for these species.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The grizzly bear group observation time series is a valid index of grizzly abundance on the migratory elk range.
“To evaluate patterns of grizzly abundance, we used a time series of bear group observations conducted in mid-summer flights by the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The wolf number time series from NPS and USFWS is a valid index of wolf abundance on the elk ranges.
“To evaluate patterns of wolf abundance, we used a time series from the National Park Service (1996)(1997)(1998) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (1999-2009; available online).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Rates of calf predation are very similar for the migratory elk studied.
“Here, we are assuming that rates of calf predation are very similar for the migratory elk we studied.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the year-round habitats of resident elk, large carnivores are limited by management removals following livestock depredations, and bears may be further limited by low tolerance for human activity.
“By contrast, in the year-round habitats of resident elk, large carnivores are limited by management removals following livestock depredations, and bears may be further limited by a low tolerance for human activity.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Comparative demography
“Calf recruitment of resident elk declined to a breakpoint (2002 6 1.5, P , 0.001), then steadily increased (F 1,19 ¼ 5.71, P ¼ 0.007; Fig. 2A).”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
“The calf : cow ratio of resident elk (gray circles) declined to a breakpoint (2002 6 1.5, P , 0.001) and then steadily increased (F 1,21 ¼ 5.71, P ¼ 0.007).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Abstract
“Migrants are also now exposed to four times as many grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) as resident elk.”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
“In contrast, no grizzlies were detected on the year-round range of resident elk.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > Landscape-level changes influencing Yellowstone migrants
“During summers from 1989 to 2009, the number of grizzly bear groups observed on the migrants' range increased fourfold (F 1,19 ¼ 4.73, P ¼ 0.05; Fig. 5A)”
§ Animal migration amid shifting patterns of phenology and predation: lessons from a Yellowstone elk herd > DISCUSSION
“The number of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) groups (shown with fitted solid line and 95% CI in dashed lines) counted during summer observation flights from 1990 to 2008 within the year-round range of migratory elk increased over 21 years”
Citations
Cites
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Parmesan, C., & Yohe, G. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01286 · Cited by 11,265
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176
Trophic Downgrading of Planet Earth
Estes, J. A., Terborgh, J., Brashares, J. S., Power, M. E., Berger, J., Bond, W. J., Carpenter, S. R., Essington, T. E., Holt, R. D., Jackson, J. B. C., et al. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1205106 · Cited by 4,087
Scared to death? The effects of intimidation and consumption in predator-prey interactions
Preisser, E. L., Bolnick, D. I., & Benard, M. F. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-0719 · Cited by 1,840
Temporal Variation in Fitness Components and Population Dynamics of Large Herbivores
Gaillard, J.-M., Festa-Bianchet, M., Yoccoz, N. G., Loison, A., & Toïgo, C. (2000) · Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.367 · Cited by 1,729
Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird
Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C. M., & Visser, M. E. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04539 · Cited by 1,461
Regional Forest Fragmentation and the Nesting Success of Migratory Birds
Robinson, S. K., Thompson, F. R., Donovan, T. M., Whitehead, D. R., & Faaborg, J. (1995) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.267.5206.1987 · Cited by 1,442
Wolves influence elk movements: Behavior shapes a trophic cascade in Yellowstone National Park
Fortin, D., Beyer, H. L., Boyce, M. S., Smith, D. W., Duchesne, T., & Mao, J. S. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-0953 · Cited by 1,351 · cited 1×
“This latter finding is consistent with the observations that elk in Yellowstone do not strongly avoid wolves during winter (Fortin et al. 2005, Mao et al. 2005) and do not avoid foraging on two preferred browse species, willow and aspen, even in high-risk areas of the ecosystem (Creel et al. 2009,…”
ResultHuman-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Hidalgo, H. G., Bonfils, C., Santer, B. D., Das, T., Bala, G., Wood, A. W., Nozawa, T., Mirin, A. A., et al. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152538 · Cited by 1,193
High and Far: Biases in the Location of Protected Areas
Joppa, L., & Pfaff, A. S. P. (2009) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008273 · Cited by 1,175
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Rudd W. J, 1983, Do split hunting seasons influence elk migration from Yellowstone National Park?, Wildlife Society Bulletin, 11, 328
- Sinclair A. R. E, 1984, Dynamics of the Serengeti ecosystem: pattern and process, Serengeti: dynamics of an ecosystem, 1
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Large herbivores surf waves of green-up during spring
Merkle, J. A., Monteith, K. L., Aikens, E. O., Hayes, M. M., Hersey, K. R., Middleton, A. D., Oates, B. A., Sawyer, H., Scurlock, B. M., & Kauffman, M. J. (2016) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.0456 · Cited by 366
Self-citationDiel predator activity drives a dynamic landscape of fear
Kohl, M. T., Stahler, D. R., Metz, M. C., Forester, J. D., Kauffman, M. J., Varley, N., White, P. J. C., Smith, D. W., & MacNulty, D. R. (2018) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1002/ecm.1313 · Cited by 315
Self-citationLife‐history characteristics of mule deer: Effects of nutrition in a variable environment
Monteith, K. L., Bleich, V. C., Stephenson, T. R., Pierce, B. M., Conner, M. M., Kie, J. G., & Bowyer, R. T. (2014) · Wildlife Monographs · doi:10.1002/wmon.1011 · Cited by 297
The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore
Aikens, E. O., Kauffman, M. J., Merkle, J. A., Dwinnell, S. P. H., Fralick, G. L., & Monteith, K. L. (2017) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12772 · Cited by 269
“Nutritional condition has been linked to the timing of migration in mule deer (Monteith et al. 2011) and habitat selection in elk (Long et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationEmerging Perspectives on Resource Tracking and Animal Movement Ecology
Abrahms, B. L., Aikens, E. O., Armstrong, J. B., Deacy, W. W., Kauffman, M. J., & Merkle, J. A. (2020) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.018 · Cited by 255
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Middleton, A. D., Kauffman, M. J., McWhirter, D. E., Cook, J. G., Cook, R. C., Nelson, A. A., Jimenez, M. D., & Klaver, R. W.
- Affiliations
- University of Wyoming (US)
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department (US)
- National Council for Air and Stream Improvement (US)
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service (US)
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- Corresponding author
- Middleton, Arthur D.
- Venue
- Ecology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1245-1256
- ISSN
- 0012-9658 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-9170
- OpenAlex
- W1985547247
- Cited by
- 268
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 23 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 16
- FWCI
- 19.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- lib.dr.iastate.edu
- Locations
- Ecology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Iowa State University Digital Repository (Iowa State University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Keywords
- animal migration, elk, red deer, Yellowstone National Park, predation risk, drought, grizzly bear, wolf, recruitment (biology), pregnancy rate, climate change, habitat quality
- MeSH terms
- Altitude, Animals, Ursidae, Deer, Environmental Monitoring, Female, Humans, Human Activities, Male, Population Dynamics, Predatory Behavior, Time Factors, Wyoming, Ecosystem, Wolves, Animal Migration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-29, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-29 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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