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The Big March: Migratory Flows after the Partition of India
Open accessAbstract
The partition of India in 1947 along ostensibly religious lines into India, Pakistan, and what eventually became Bangladesh resulted in one of the largest and most rapid migrations in human history. We compile district level census data from archives to quantify the scale of migratory flows across the sub-continent. We estimate total migratory inflows of 14.5 million and outflows of 17.9 million, implying 3.4 million "missing" people. We also uncover a substantial degree of regional variability. Flows were much larger along the western border, higher in cities and areas close to the border, and dependent heavily on the size of the "minority" religious group. The migratory flows also display a "relative replacement effect" with in-migrants moving to places that saw greater out-migration.
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The replacement effect was significant and very large for both India and Pakistan.
“The replacement effect was found to be significant and very large for both India and Pakistan (Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008).”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
The distance to the border effect was statistically significant only in India and generally of small size.
“The distance to the border effect was found to be only statistically significant in India and generally of small size (Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008).”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
Migratory inflows tended to be greater in the major urban centres of India and Pakistan (big city effect).
“Another important pattern the Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian (2008) study uncovers is the tendency of migratory inflows to be greater in the major urban centres of India and Pakistan.”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
An estimated 14.5 million people were displaced within a short span of just four years after partition.
“An estimated 14.5 million people were displaced within a short span of just four years after partition (Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008, p. 39).”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
The big city effect held strongly for India and was not statistically significant for Pakistan.
“The big city effect was found to hold strongly for India and was not statistically significant for Pakistan (Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008).”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
Districts that experienced greater evacuee outflows also received greater refugee inflows (replacement effect).
“Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian (2008) identify a 'replacement effect' according to which districts that experienced greater evacuee outflows also received greater refugee inflows.”
From Displacement and development: Long term impacts of population transfer in India (2019) · cites this paper as Bharadwaj, Khwaja, and Mian, 2008
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bharadwaj, P., Khwaja, A. I., & Mian, A. R.
- Affiliations
- University of California San Diego (US)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bharadwaj, Prashant
- ORCID
- Bharadwaj, Prashant
- Venue
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008
- ISSN
- 1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2146796783
- Cited by
- 68
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 5
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › South Asian Studies and Diaspora
- Social Sciences › Demography › Migration, Health, Geopolitics, Historical Geography
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › South Asian Studies and Conflicts
- Keywords
- Partition of India, mass migration, religious minorities, missing persons, migration flows, census data, border migration, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh
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