Trends in Diabetes Incidence: The Framingham Heart Study
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: Obesity and type 2 diabetes continue to increase in prevalence in the U.S. Whether diabetes incidence continues to increase in recent times is less well documented. We examined trends in diabetes incidence over the previous four decades. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Framingham Heart Study participants ages 40–55 years and free of diabetes at baseline (n = 4,795; mean age 45.3 years; 51.6% women) were followed for the development of diabetes in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Diabetes was defined as either fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or use of antidiabetes medication. Poisson regression was used to calculate sex-specific diabetes incidence rates for a 47-year-old individual in each decade. Rates were also calculated among obese, overweight, and normal weight individuals. RESULTS: The annualized rates of diabetes per 1,000 individuals were 2.6, 3.8, 4.7, and 3.0 (women) and 3.4, 4.5, 7.4, and 7.3 (men) in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively. Compared with the 1970s, the age- and sex-adjusted relative risks of diabetes were 1.37 (95% CI 0.87–2.16; P = 0.17), 1.99 (95% CI 1.30–3.03; P = 0.001), and 1.81 (95% CI 1.16–2.82; P = 0.01) in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively. Compared with the 1990s, the relative risk of diabetes in the 2000s was 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.20; P = 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: In our community-based sample, the risk of new-onset diabetes continued to be higher in the 2000s compared with the 1970s. In the past decade, diabetes incidence remained steady despite the ongoing trend of rising adiposity.
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The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus has been steadily increasing over time.
“The prevalence of T2DM has been steadily increasing over time.”
From Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a systematic literature review of scientific evidence from across the world in 2007–2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [2]
That change represented an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus of 83.3%.
“That change represented an increase in the incidence of T2DM of 83.3%”
From Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a systematic literature review of scientific evidence from across the world in 2007–2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [2]
The increase in type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence was higher in males than females by a factor of 1.61.
“and was higher in males than females by a factor of 1.61.”
From Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a systematic literature review of scientific evidence from across the world in 2007–2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [2]
In the Framingham Heart Study, overall annualized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus per 1000 persons increased from 3.0 in the 1970s to 5.5 in the first decade of the 2000s.
“Using data from the Framingham Heart Study, Abraham et al. [2] noted that the overall annualized incidence rates of the disease per 1000 persons increased from 3.0 in the 1970s to 5.5 in the first decade of the 2000s.”
From Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a systematic literature review of scientific evidence from across the world in 2007–2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [2]
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- Authors
- Abraham, T. M., Pencina, K. M., Pencina, M. J., & Fox, C. S.
- Affiliations
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Boston University (US)
- Duke University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Fox, Caroline S.
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2014-12-31
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 482-487
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- PMC
- PMC4338506
- OpenAlex
- W2121087499
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2025: 4 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 4
- FWCI
- 6.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc25195-41-0-1)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01‐HC25195, N01-HC-025195)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Keywords
- type 2 diabetes, diabetes incidence trends, obesity, adiposity, sex differences, middle-aged adults, Framingham Heart Study, incidence rates, relative risk, fasting blood glucose, community-based cohort, overweight, normal weight, diabetes risk factors
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Obesity, Risk, United States, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Prevalence, Adiposity, Overweight
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