The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity
Open accessAbstract
Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth.We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010.We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%.One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth.Labor compensation and wages also declined in response.Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.
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The impact of population aging on SME digital transformation: Evidence from China
Xie, X., & Xu, X. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0300660 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Demographic change, human capital accumulation, and sectoral employment
Hirono, M. (2020) · Journal of Economics · doi:10.1007/s00712-020-00716-6 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?Preprint
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Pensions reforms, workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare
Croce, G., Ricci, A., & Tesauro, G. (2019) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2019.1581911 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Robots at work? Pitfalls of industry‐level data
Bekhtiar, K., Bittschi, B., & Sellner, R. (2024) · Journal of Applied Econometrics · doi:10.1002/jae.3073 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
de Rentería, P. G., Ferrer‐Pérez, H., Sanjuán, A. I., & Philippidis, G. (2022) · The European Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1007/s10198-022-01469-3 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The Puzzle of Falling Us Birth Rates Since the Great RecessionPreprint
Kearney, M. S., Levine, P. B., & Pardue, L. W. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3931808 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Chen, M., Kotsopoulos, N., Yen, A. M., Lin, K., & Connolly, M. P. (2024) · Human Reproduction · doi:10.1093/humrep/deae271 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
California’s Paid Family Leave Law and the Employment of 45- to 64-Year-Old Adults
Bartel, A. P., Kim, S., Ruhm, C. J., & Waldfogel, J. (2021) · Work Aging and Retirement · doi:10.1093/workar/waab022 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Determinants of the Elderly Share of Population: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis
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Talkin’ ‘Bout My Generation: More Educated, But Less Skilled CanadiansPreprint
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Age Discrimination across the Business Cycle
Dahl, G. B., & Knepper, M. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27581 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Yao, Y., Wang, Z., & Lei, C. K. (2024) · Sustainability Accounting Management and Policy Journal · doi:10.1108/sampj-12-2023-0889 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Ziesemer, T., & von Gaessler, A. E. (2020) · Portuguese Economic Journal · doi:10.1007/s10258-020-00176-2 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
EVAL Cane: Nonintrusive Monitoring Platform With a Novel Gait-Based User-Identification Scheme
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Getting too old for this: Population ageing and its economic consequences in Finland
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Determinants of Total Factor Productivity Growth in India
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Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?
Honda, J., & Miyamoto, H. (2020) · IMF Working Paper · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3652510 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Redefining Strategic Routes to Financial Resilience in ASEAN+3
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Population Aging, Silver Dividend, and Economic Growth
Park, D., & Shin, K. (2023) · doi:10.22617/wps230070-2 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Demographic Structure, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey
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NÜFUS ARTIŞI İLE KALKINMA ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: SAHRA-ALTI AFRİKA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ
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America in pain, the nation’s well-being at stake
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Self-citationIsmail, A. A., Abdelhamid, E. H., Khalil, G. M., & Abdelsalam, N. M. (2023) · The Egyptian Journal of Hospital Medicine · doi:10.21608/ejhm.2023.284330 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF AGEING POPULATION ON LABOUR MARKET
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Sosyal Harcama Türleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği
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Building Solid Foundations: How to Promote Potential Growth
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Dose the increasing burden of social endowment affect sustainable development of economy?
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Ageing and Economic Growth and Development
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Is the Rise in Illicit Opioids Affecting Labor Supply and Disability Claiming Rates?
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Self-citationWorkforce aging, labour productivity, and digital empowerment in Europe
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A Modest Proposal for Solving the Older Worker Productivity Problem
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The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Middle East Countries
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Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?
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How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies
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Toplam Faktör Verimliliği Artışı ve Demografi: Türkiye Örneği
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Population Aging and International Conflict
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Population Ageing and Entrepreneurship: Theory and Evidence From OECD Countries
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Labor market participation of the elderly: the role of family financial transfers in China
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Виклики і загрози демографічній стійкості України під час війни
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Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries
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- Authors
- Maestas, N., Mullen, K., & Powell, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern California (US)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2016-07
- OpenAlex
- W2501745975
- Cited by
- 220
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Demography › Retirement, Disability, and Employment
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- population aging, economic growth, GDP per capita, labor productivity, labor force growth, job creation, labor compensation, wages, older workers, state-level variation
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