Incidental Emotions and Hedonic Forecasting: The Role of (Un)certainty
Open accessAbstract
The impact of incidental emotions on decision making is well established. Incidental emotions can be differentiated on several appraisal dimensions, including certainty-uncertainty. The present research investigates the effect of certainty-uncertainty of incidental emotions on hedonic forecasting. The results of four experimental studies indicate that uncertainty-associated incidental emotions, such as fear and hope, compared with certainty emotions, such as anger and happiness, amplify predicted utility. This amplification effect is confirmed for opposite utility types; uncertainty-associated emotions, when compared with their certainty counterparts, lead to an overprediction of positive utilities and to an underprediction of negative utilities. This effect is mediated by the prediction task uncertainty, providing evidence for a carryover process of the incidental emotion. The effect of task uncertainty on predicted utility is, in turn, partly mediated by attention to the task, suggesting that an affective adaptation process lies behind the amplification of forecasts. Taken together, these findings extend the impact of certainty-uncertainty to the context of hedonic forecasting and further corroborate the impact of incidental emotions in judgment and decision making.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Privacy and security concerns about ChatGPT may lead to fear, followed by emotional uncertainty, hindering future experiences of human-AI interactions.
“Such concerns may lead to fear, followed by emotional uncertainty (Polyportis, 2020;Polyportis et al., 2020), hindering future experiences of human-AI interactions.”
From Navigating the perils of artificial intelligence: a focused review on ChatGPT and responsible research and innovation (2024) · cites this paper as Polyportis, 2020
Privacy and security concerns about ChatGPT may lead to fear, followed by emotional uncertainty, hindering future experiences of human-AI interactions.
“Such concerns may lead to fear, followed by emotional uncertainty (Polyportis, 2020;Polyportis et al., 2020), hindering future experiences of human-AI interactions.”
From Navigating the perils of artificial intelligence: a focused review on ChatGPT and responsible research and innovation (2024) · cites this paper as Polyportis et al., 2020
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Development and validation of brief measures of positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales.
Watson, D., Clark, L. A., & Tellegen, A. (1988) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.54.6.1063 · Cited by 32,433 · see citing works
Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267 · Cited by 5,955 · see citing works
A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.
Kahneman, D. (2003) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.58.9.697 · Cited by 5,540 · see citing works
Patterns of cognitive appraisal in emotion.
Smith, C. A., & Ellsworth, P. C. (1985) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.48.4.813 · Cited by 4,068 · see citing works
Mood and judgment: The affect infusion model (AIM).
Forgas, J. P. (1995) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.117.1.39 · Cited by 3,470 · see citing works
A Survey Method for Characterizing Daily Life Experience: The Day Reconstruction Method
Kahneman, D., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D. A., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1103572 · Cited by 3,422 · see citing works
Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.81.1.146 · Cited by 3,325 · see citing works
Lerner, J. S., Li, Y., Valdesolo, P., & Kassam, K. S. (2015) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-010213-115043 · Cited by 2,913 · see citing works
Beyond valence: Toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice
Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. (2000) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/026999300402763 · Cited by 2,386 · see citing works
Relations among emotion, appraisal, and emotional action readiness
Frijda, N. H., Kuipers, P., & ter Schure, E. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.2.212 · Cited by 2,379 · see citing works
Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct.
(2002) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.57.12.1060 · Cited by 1,911 · see citing works
Appraisal Considered as a Process of Multilevel Sequential Checking
Scherer, K. R. (2001) · Appraisal Processes in Emotion · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195130072.003.0005 · Cited by 1,907 · see citing works
Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct.
(2015) · American Psychological Association eBooks · doi:10.1037/14805-030 · Cited by 1,680 · see citing works
Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
Gilbert, D. T., Pinel, E. C., Wilson, T. D., Blumberg, S. J., & Wheatley, T. P. (1998) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.617 · Cited by 1,547 · see citing works
Cabanac, M. (1971) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.173.4002.1103 · Cited by 1,521 · see citing works
Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.81.6.973 · Cited by 1,441 · see citing works
Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion
Kahneman, D. J., Krueger, A. B., Schkade, D. A., Schwarz, N., & Stone, A. A. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1129688 · Cited by 1,258 · see citing works
Prospection: experiencing the future
Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1144161 · Cited by 1,238 · see citing works
Mental contamination and mental correction: Unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations.
Wilson, T. D., & Brekke, N. (1994) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.117 · Cited by 1,157 · see citing works
Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility
Loewenstein, G. F., O’Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355303322552784 · Cited by 1,079 · see citing works
Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.81.6.973 · Cited by 1,051 · see citing works
Portrait of the angry decision maker: how appraisal tendencies shape anger's influence on cognition
Lerner, J. S., & Tiedens, L. Z. (2006) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.515 · Cited by 1,002 · see citing works
Heart Strings and Purse Strings: Carryover Effects of Emotions on Economic Decisions
Lerner, J. S., Small, D. A., & Loewenstein, G. (2004) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00679.x · Cited by 959 · see citing works
Cognitive determinants of emotion: A structural theory.
Roseman, I. J. (1984) · Cited by 902 · see citing works
Beyond simple pessimism: Effects of sadness and anger on social perception.
Keltner, D. J., Ellsworth, P. C., & Edwards, K. (1993) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.64.5.740 · Cited by 894 · see citing works
Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(03)01006-2 · Cited by 885 · see citing works
Schaefer, A., Nils, F., Sanchez, X., & Philippot, P. (2010) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/02699930903274322 · Cited by 875 · see citing works
Does Living in California Make People Happy? A Focusing Illusion in Judgments of Life Satisfaction
Schkade, D. A., & Kahneman, D. J. (1998) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00066 · Cited by 860 · see citing works
The biopsychosocial model of arousal regulation
Blascovich, J., & Tomaka, J. (1996) · Advances in Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60235-x · Cited by 721 · see citing works
Feelings and Consumer Decision Making: The Appraisal‐Tendency Framework
Han, S., Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. J. (2007) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1016/s1057-7408(07)70023-2 · Cited by 701 · see citing works
Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility
Kahneman, D. J., & Thaler, R. H. (2006) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/089533006776526076 · Cited by 639 · see citing works
Beyond simple pessimism: Effects of sadness and anger on social perception.
Keltner, D. J., Ellsworth, P. C., & Edwards, K. (1993) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.64.5.740 · Cited by 637 · see citing works
Happiness and reminiscing: The role of time perspective, affect, and mode of thinking.
Strack, F., Schwarz, N., & Gschneidinger, E. (1985) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.49.6.1460 · Cited by 612 · see citing works
Lerner, J. S., Goldberg, J. H., & Tetlock, P. E. (1998) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167298246001 · Cited by 609 · see citing works
Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T. P., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. K. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.821 · Cited by 603 · see citing works
Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T. P., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. K. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.78.5.821 · Cited by 564 · see citing works
Wouldn’t it be nice? Predicting future feelings
Loewenstein, G. F., & Schkade, D. A. (1999) · Cited by 529 · see citing works
Attentional control of the processing of neutral and emotional stimuli
Pessoa, L., Kästner, S., & Ungerleider, L. G. (2002) · Cognitive Brain Research · doi:10.1016/s0926-6410(02)00214-8 · Cited by 525 · see citing works
Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like?
Kahneman, D. J., & Snell, J. (1992) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.3960050304 · Cited by 520 · see citing works
On bad decisions and disconfirmed expectancies: The psychology of regret and disappointment
Zeelenberg, M., DIJK, W. W. V., Manstead, A. S. R., & van der Pligt, J. (2000) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/026999300402781 · Cited by 509 · see citing works
Explaining Away: A Model of Affective Adaptation
Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2008) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1745-6924.2008.00085.x · Cited by 500 · see citing works
Emotions, Arousal, and Stereotypic Judgments: A Heuristic Model of Affect and Stereotyping
Bodenhausen, G. V. (1993) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-088579-7.50006-5 · Cited by 482 · see citing works
The Pleasures of Uncertainty: Prolonging Positive Moods in Ways People Do Not Anticipate.
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.88.1.5 · Cited by 476 · see citing works
Rage and reason: the psychology of the intuitive prosecutor
Goldberg, J. H., Lerner, J. S., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0992(199908/09)29:5/6 · Cited by 468 · see citing works
The Future Is Now: Temporal Correction in Affective Forecasting
Gilbert, D. T., Gill, M. J., & Wilson, T. D. (2002) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.2001.2982 · Cited by 429 · see citing works
The feeling of uncertainty intensifies affective reactions
Bar-Anan, Y., Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2009) · Emotion · doi:10.1037/a0014607 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding
Griffin, D. W., & Ross, L. (1991) · Advances in Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60333-0 · Cited by 404 · see citing works
Beyond valence in the perception of likelihood: The role of emotion specificity.
DeSteno, D. A., Petty, R. E., Wegener, D. T., & Rucker, D. D. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.78.3.397 · Cited by 401 · see citing works
Affect and decision making: a “hot” topic
Peters, E. M., Västfjäll, D., Gärling, T., & Slovic, P. (2006) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.528 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
Beyond valence in the perception of likelihood: The role of emotion specificity.
DeSteno, D. A., Petty, R. E., Wegener, D. T., et al. (2000) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.78.3.397 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
New Challenges to the Rationality Assumption
Selten, R. (1994) · Cited by 301 · see citing works
Miswanting: Some Problems in the Forecasting of Future Affective States
Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511618031.031 · Cited by 292 · see citing works
Dread Risk, September 11, and Fatal Traffic Accidents
Gigerenzer, G. (2004) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00668.x · Cited by 269 · see citing works
Emotion as a process: Function, origin and regulation
Scherer, K. R. (1982) · Social Science Information · doi:10.1177/053901882021004004 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others.
Griffin, D. W., Dunning, D. A., & Ross, L. D. (1990) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.59.6.1128 · Cited by 254 · see citing works
Preferences for separating or combining events.
Linville, P. W., & Fischer, G. W. (1991) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.60.1.5 · Cited by 254 · see citing works
Toward Delivering on the Promise of Appraisal Theory
Smith, C. A., & Kirby, L. D. (2001) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195130072.003.0006 · Cited by 250 · see citing works
The Effect of Sexual Arousal on Expectations of Sexual Forcefulness
Loewenstein, G. F., Nagin, D. S., & Paternoster, R. (1997) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi:10.1177/0022427897034004003 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Preferences for separating or combining events.
Linville, P. W., & Fischer, G. W. (1991) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.60.1.5 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions.
Baron, J. (1992) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.63.2.320 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
The Role of Emotion in Economic BehaviorPreprint
Rick, S. I., & Loewenstein, G. F. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.954862 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
Why the brain talks to itself: sources of error in emotional prediction
Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2009) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2008.0305 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
American Psychological Association (2016) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/amp0000102 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Predicting reactions to environmental change.
Loewenstein, G. F., & Frederick, S. (1997) · Cited by 138 · see citing works
The Arithmetic of Emotion: Integration of Incidental and Integral Affect in Judgments and Decisions
Västfjäll, D., Slovic, P., Burns, W. J., Erlandsson, A., Koppel, L., Asutay, E., & Tinghög, G. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00325 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Intuitive Hedonics: Consumer Beliefs About the Dynamics of Liking
Snell, J., Gibbs, B., & Varey, C. A. (1995) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1207/s15327663jcp0401_02 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
In the winning mood: Affect in the Iowa gambling task
de Vries, M., Holland, R. W., & Witteman, C. L. M. (2008) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500000152 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Selective exposure partly relies on faulty affective forecasts
Dorison, C. A., Minson, J. A., & Rogers, T. (2019) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2019.02.010 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
The disgust-promotes-disposal effect
Han, S., Lerner, J. S., & Zeckhauser, R. (2012) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1007/s11166-012-9139-3 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Buechel, E. C., Zhang, J., & Morewedge, C. K. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0000306 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Inbar, Y., & Gilovich, T. D. (2011) · Social Psychological and Personality Science · doi:10.1177/1948550611401426 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Emotions that associate with uncertainty lead to structured ideation.
Baas, M., Dreu, C. K. W. D., & Nijstad, B. A. (2012) · Emotion · doi:10.1037/a0027358 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Yang, Y., Gu, Y., & Galak, J. (2016) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1093/jcr/ucw052 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Emotion Appraisal Tendencies and Carryover: How, Why, and … Therefore?
Yates, F. J. (2007) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1016/s1057-7408(07)70026-8 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Bagneux, V., Font, H., & Bollon, T. (2013) · Motivation and Emotion · doi:10.1007/s11031-013-9346-5 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
The Construct of State-Level Suspicion
Bobko, P., Barelka, A. J., & Hirshfield, L. M. (2013) · Human Factors The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society · doi:10.1177/0018720813497052 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Curiosity about a positive or negative event prolongs the duration of emotional experience
Kaneko, M., Ozaki, Y., & Horike, K. (2017) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/02699931.2017.1324766 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Leahy, R. L. (2018) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203711095-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Kahneman D. Snell J. (1990). “ Predicting utility,” in Insights in Decision Making: A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn, ed. Hogarth R. M. (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), 295– 310.
- Keltner D. Lerner J. S. (2010). “ Emotion,” in Handbook of Social Psychology, eds Gilbert D. T. Fiske S. T. Lindzey G. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc), 317– 352.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Polyportis, A. (2024) · Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.3389/frai.2023.1324398 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citationPolyportis, A., & Pahos, N. (2024) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-023-02464-6 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Polyportis, A., Kokkinaki, F., Horváth, C., & Christopoulos, G.
- Affiliations
- Athens University of Economics and Business (GR)
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Polyportis, Athanasios
- Venue
- Frontiers in Psychology
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2020-10-09
- Volume
- 11
- Pages
- 536376-536376
- ISSN
- 1664-1078 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7581671
- OpenAlex
- W3092321710
- Cited by
- 15
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 0.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Frontiers in Psychology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DR-NTU (Nanyang Technological University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- European Commission (MIS-5000432)
- State Scholarships Foundation (MIS5000432, ΟΠΣ 5000432)
- European Social Fund (MIS -5000432)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Psychological Well-being and Life Satisfaction
- Keywords
- incidental emotions, fear, hope, anger, happiness, task uncertainty, attention, affective adaptation, judgment and decision making
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review