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Cited by 61Astro and Planetary ScienceStellar, planetary, and galactic studiesSpace Satellite Systems and Control

OSSOS: X. How to Use a Survey Simulator: Statistical Testing of Dynamical Models Against the Real Kuiper Belt

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Lawler, Samantha M., Kavelaars, J. J., Alexandersen, Mike, Bannister, Michele T., Gladman, Brett, Petit, Jean-Marc, Shankman, Cory·2018·Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
DOI 10.3389/fspas.2018.00014
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Abstract

All surveys include observational biases, which makes it impossible to directly compare properties of discovered trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) with dynamical models. However, by carefully keeping track of survey pointings on the sky, detection limits, tracking fractions, and rate cuts, the biases from a survey can be modelled in Survey Simulator software. A Survey Simulator takes an intrinsic orbital model (from, for example, the output of a dynamical Kuiper belt emplacement simulation) and applies the survey biases, so that the biased simulated objects can be directly compared with real discoveries. This methodology has been used with great success in the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) and its predecessor surveys. In this chapter, we give four examples of ways to use the OSSOS Survey Simulator to gain knowledge about the true structure of the Kuiper Belt. We demonstrate how to statistically compare different dynamical model outputs with real TNO discoveries, how to quantify detection biases within a TNO population, how to measure intrinsic population sizes, and how to use upper limits from non-detections. We hope this will provide a framework for dynamical modellers to statistically test the validity of their models.

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  • A validation exercise using simulated observations from a synthetic distribution and the OSSOS survey simulator was conducted as a check on the self-consistency of the statistical method.

    “As a check on the self-consistency of our statistical method, we conducted a validation exercise using simulated observations derived from a precisely defined synthetic distribution.This involved generating 100,000 orbits from on a synthetic distribution of TNOs characterized by a boxcar perihelion distribution within the 15-30 au interval, a Gaussian distribution of inclinations with a dispersion”

    From Generation of Low-inclination, Neptune-crossing Trans-Neptunian Objects by Planet Nine (2024) · cites this paper as Lawler et al. 2018

    Section 2.2 (page unavailable) describes using the OSSOS Survey Simulator to generate simulated detections from a user-defined distribution, and section 3 describes statistical comparisons using those detections. The paper does not report the specific synthetic-distribution validation exercise or say it was a check on the citing authors’ method’s self-consistency. (LLM, conf=0.82)

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Kavelaars, J. J., Gladman, B., Petit, J., Parker, J. W., and Jones, L. (2008b). "The CFEPS High Ecliptic Latitude Extension, " in AAS/Division for Planetary Sciences Meeting Abstracts #40 (Ithaca, NY: Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society), 481.
  2. Pike, R. E., Lawler, S., Brasser, R., Shankman, C. J., Alexandersen, M., and Kavelaars, J. J. (2017). The structure of the distant Kuiper belt in a nice model scenario. arXiv:1701.07041v1 · arXiv
  3. aaa19b · DOI · Paper page

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Authors
Lawler, S. M., Kavelaars, J. J., Alexandersen, M., Bannister, M. T., Gladman, B., Petit, J.-M., & Shankman, C.
Affiliations
  • Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics (CA)
  • Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica (TW)
  • Queen's University Belfast (GB)
  • University of British Columbia (CA)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
Corresponding author
Lawler, Samantha M.
ORCID
Venue
Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
Publisher
Frontiers Media SA
Published
2018-05-16
Volume
5
ISSN
2296-987X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3389/fspas.2018.00014
OpenAlex
W2963683659
Cited by
61
References
93
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 5
FWCI
4.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • NPARC (submittedVersion)
  • Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • arXiv (Cornell University)
Funders
  • Canadian Foundation for AIDS Research
  • Academia Sinica
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
  • Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/L000709/1, L000709/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astro and Planetary Science
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Space Satellite Systems and Control
Keywords
Kuiper belt, trans-Neptunian objects, survey simulation, dynamic modeling, detection limit, population size estimation, model validation, orbital dynamics

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