Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review
Open accessAbstract
A large body of literature on the favorite–longshot bias finds that sports bettors in a variety of markets appear to have irrational biases toward either longshots (which offer a small chance of winning a large amount of money) or favorites (which offer a high chance of winning a small amount of money). While early studies in horse racing led to an impression that longshot bias is dominant, favorite bias has also now been found in a variety of sports betting markets. This review proposes that the evidence is consistent with both biases being present in the average sports bettor. Sports betting markets with only two potential outcomes, where the favorite therefore has a probability >0.5 of happening, often produce favorite bias. Sports betting markets with multiple outcomes, where the favorite’s probability is usually <0.5, appear more consistent with longshot bias. The presence of restricted odds ranges within any given betting market provides an explanation for why single studies support, at most, one bias. This literature review highlights how individual sports bettors might possess biases toward both highly likely, and highly unlikely, events, a contradictory view that has not been summarized in detail before.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524 · see citing works
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,700 · see citing works
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 · Cited by 28,810 · cited 2× · see citing works
“While the existence of either bias implies that sports bettors fall short of rational performance (Cortis et al. 2013; Vaughan Williams 1999), the literature has not come to a clear consensus on explaining why these biases emerge as they do across all sports betting markets.”
Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios
Coval, J. D., & Moskowitz, T. J. (1999) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00181 · Cited by 2,898 · see citing works
Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries
Thaler, R. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1988) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.2.2.161 · Cited by 621 · see citing works
Bettors Love Skewness, Not Risk, at the Horse Track
Golec, J. H., & Tamarkin, M. J. (1998) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/250007 · Cited by 415 · see citing works
Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors
Ali, M. M. (1977) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260600 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?
Levitt, S. D. (2004) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.x · Cited by 377 · see citing works
Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?
Snowberg, E., & Wolfers, J. J. (2010) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/655844 · Cited by 331 · see citing works
Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors
Griffith, R. M. (1949) · The American Journal of Psychology · doi:10.2307/1418469 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting
Hausch, D. B., Ziemba, W. T., & Rubinstein, M. (1981) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.27.12.1435 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL
Snyder, W. W. (1978) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02051.x · Cited by 237 · see citing works
Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence From The NFL Sports Betting Market
GRAY, P. K., & GRAY, S. F. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb01129.x · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Intuitive confidence: Choosing between intuitive and nonintuitive alternatives.
Simmons, J. P., & Nelson, L. D. (2006) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/0096-3445.135.3.409 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (1994) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04429.x · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias
Shin, H. S. (1992) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2234526 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Identifying Investor Sentiment from Price Paths: The Case of Football Betting
Avery, C. N., & Chevalier, J. A. (1999) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/209625 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Popescu, C. R. G., & Popescu, G. N. (2019) · Journal of risk and financial management · doi:10.3390/jrfm12040162 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Utility Analysis and Group Behavior: An Empirical Study
Weitzman, M. L. (1965) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/258989 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting
Cain, M., Law, D., & Peel, D. (2000) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/1467-9485.00151 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Racetrack betting and informed behavior
Asch, P., Malkiel, B. G., & Quandt, R. E. (1982) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(82)90012-5 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market Statistical tests
Golec, J. (1991) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(91)90034-h · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: a Survey
Williams, L. V. (1999) · Bulletin of Economic Research · doi:10.1111/1467-8586.00069 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Intuitive Biases in Choice versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds
Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., Galak, J., & Frederick, S. (2010) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/658070 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.
Pleskac, T. J., & Hertwig, R. (2014) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0000013 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
An Exception to the Risk Preference Anomaly
Busche, K., & Hall, C. D. (1988) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/296436 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football
Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2007) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840701522895 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting
Asch, P., Malkiel, B. G., & Quandt, R. E. (1984) · The Journal of Business · doi:10.1086/296257 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Why is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets
Williams, L. V., & Paton, D. (1997) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/1468-0297.00147 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets
Dowie, J. (1976) · Economica · doi:10.2307/2553203 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
A Note on the Hayek Hypothesis and the Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting
Hurley, W. J., & McDonough, L. (1995) · American Economic Review · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Vlastakis, N., Dotsis, G., & Markellos, R. N. (2007) · Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1002/for.1085 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market
Dixon, M. J., & Pope, P. F. (2004) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.007 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Rosett, R. N. (1965) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/259086 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (2001) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00385.x · Cited by 80 · see citing works
The Favourite‐Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets
Cain, M., Law, D., & Peel, D. (2003) · Bulletin of Economic Research · doi:10.1111/1467-8586.00174 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting
Sobel, R. S., & Raines, S. T. (2003) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840110111176 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Optimal Betting and Efficiency in Parimutuel Betting Markets with Information Costs
Terrell, D., & Farmer, A. (1996) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2235361 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
TESTING FOR EFFICIENCY IN LOTTO MARKETS
Scott, F. A., & Gulley, O. D. (1995) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01855.x · Cited by 63 · see citing works
New light on the longshot bias
Coleman, L. (2004) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840410001674240 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others
Buhagiar, R., Cortis, D., & Newall, P. (2018) · Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationWhy are some favourite-longshot biases positive and others negative?
Williams, L. V., & Paton, D. (1998) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/000368498324841 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Newall, P. W. S. (2015) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004630 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationTESTING THE EFFICIENCY OF MARKETS IN THE 2002 WORLD CUP
Gil, R., & Levitt, S. D. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v1i3.504 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
EFFICIENCY IN BETTING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM ENGLISH FOOTBALL
Deschamps, B., & Gergaud, O. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v1i1.420 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
National Sentiment and Economic Behavior
Braun, S. T., & Kvasnicka, M. (2011) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002511414718 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for UK football
Graham, I., & Stott, H. P. (2007) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840701728799 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Racetrack wagering and the “uninformed” bettor: A study of market efficiency
Swidler, S. M., & Shaw, R. (1995) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/1062-9769(95)90071-3 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Forrest, D., & McHale, I. G. (2007) · European Journal of Finance · doi:10.1080/13518470701705736 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Bruce, A. C., & JOHNSON, J. E. V. (2000) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/1099-0771(200010/12)13:4 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds
Bird, R., & McCrae, M. (1987) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.33.12.1552 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Cortis, D. (2015) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v9i1.987 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Reverse Favourite–longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (2003) · Bulletin of Economic Research · doi:10.1111/1467-8586.00165 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market
Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v7i2.630 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Efficient Market Results in an Asian Setting
Busche, K. (2008) · World Scientific handbook in financial economic series · doi:10.1142/9789812819192_0061 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
On utility function estimation of racetrack bettors
Kanto, A., Rosenqvist, G., & Suvas, A. (1992) · Journal of Economic Psychology · doi:10.1016/0167-4870(92)90006-s · Cited by 31 · see citing works
DECISION COSTS AND BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY
Busche, K., & Walls, W. D. (2000) · Rationality and Society · doi:10.1177/104346300012004006 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Neural Networks and Betting Strategies for Tennis
Candila, V., & Palazzo, L. (2020) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks8030068 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Do betting costs explain betting biases?
Paton, D., & Williams, L. V. (1998) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/758524413 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The Efficiency of Australian Football Betting Markets
Brailsford, T., Gray, P. K., Easton, S. A., & Gray, S. (1995) · Australian Journal of Management · doi:10.1177/031289629502000204 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Peel, D. A., & LAW, D. (2008) · Economica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00736.x · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Comparison of Home Advantage in European Football Leagues
Marek, P., & Vávra, F. (2020) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks8030087 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Balancing the book: Is it necessary and sufficient?
Stark, D., & Cortis, D. (2017) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v11i1.1280 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk Love and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Evidence from German Harness Horse Racing
Winter, S., & Kukuk, M. (2006) · Schmalenbach Business Review · doi:10.1007/bf03396738 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The utility of gambling and the favourite-longshot bias
Cain, M., & Peel, D. A. (2004) · European Journal of Finance · doi:10.1080/1351847042000199051 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Bookmaker and pari-mutuel Betting: is a (reverse) favourite-longshot Bias Built-in?
Koch, A. K., & Shing, H.-F. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v2i2.440 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Sung, M., Johnson, J. E. V., & Dror, I. E. (2008) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.629 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Newall, P. W. S., & Cortis, D. (2019) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004897 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationAxén, G., & Cortis, D. (2020) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks8030088 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationWAGERING PREFERENCES OF NFL BETTORS: DETERMINANTS OF BETTING VOLUME
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v6i1.496 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
PROFITING ON INEFFICIENCIES IN BETTING DERIVATIVE MARKETS: THE CASE OF UEFA EURO 2012
Cortis, D., Hales, S., & Bezzina, F. H. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v7i1.597 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationOn Developing a Solvency Framework for Bookmakers
Cortis, D. (2019) · Variance · doi:10.66573/001c.121914 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationRosett, R. N. (2008) · World Scientific handbook in financial economic series · doi:10.1142/9789812819192_0010 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
A Public (Mis)interpretation of Brazil’s World Cup Performance
Cortis, D., & Briguglio, M. (2016) · Journal of Sports Management and Commercialization · doi:10.18848/2381-6937/cgp/v07i03/25-33 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationChincarini, L. B., & Contreras, C. (2013) · The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics · doi:10.5750/jgbe.v4i3.560 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 24
- Asch, Peter, Burton G. Malkiel, and Richard E. Quandt. 1982. Racetrack betting and informed behavior. Journal of Financial Economics 10: 187-94.
- Brailsford, Timothy J., Philip K. Gray, Stephen A. Easton, and Stephen F. Gray. 1995. The efficiency of australian football betting markets. Australian Journal of Management 20: 167-95.
- Braun, Sebastian, and Michael Kvasnicka. 2013. National sentiment and economic behavior evidence from online betting on european football. Journal of Sports Economics 14: 45-64.
- Bruce, Alistair C., and Johnnie E. V. Johnson. 2000. Investigating the roots of the favourite-longshot bias: An analysis of decision making by supply-and demand-side agents in parallel betting markets. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13: 413-30.
- Buhagiar, Ranier, Dominic Cortis, and Philip WS Newall. 2018. Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others? Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 18: 85-93.
- Cain, Michael, David Law, and David Peel. 2000. The favourite-longshot bias and market efficiency in UK football betting. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 47: 25-36.
- Cain, Michael, David Law, and David Peel. 2003. The Favourite-Longshot bias, bookmaker margins and insider trading in a variety of betting markets. Bulletin of Economic Research 55: 263-73.
- Constantinou, Anthony, and Norman Fenton. 2013. Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the european football gambling market. The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 7: 41-70.
- Coval, Joshua D., and Tobias J. Moskowitz. 1999. Home bias at home: Local equity preference in domestic portfolios. The Journal of Finance 54: 2045-73.
- Deschamps, Bruno, and Olivier Gergaud. 2012. Efficiency in betting markets: Evidence from english football. The Journal of Prediction Markets 1: 61-73.
- Golec, Joseph, and Maurry Tamarkin. 1991. The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market: Statistical tests. Journal of Financial Economics 30: 311-23.
- Gray, Philip K., and Stephen F. Gray. 1997. Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market. The Journal of Finance 52: 1725-37.
- Kanto, Antti J., Gunnar Rosenqvist, and Arto Suvas. 1992. On utility function estimation of racetrack bettors. Journal of Economic Psychology 13: 491-98.
- Paul, Rodney J., and Andrew P. Weinbach. 2012. Wagering preferences of nfl bettors: Determinants of betting volume. Journal of Prediction Markets 6: 42-55.
- Pleskac, Timothy J., and Ralph Hertwig. 2014. Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 143: 2000-19.
- Shin, Hyun Song. 1992. Prices of state contingent claims with insider traders, and the favourite-longshot bias. The Economic Journal 102: 426-35.
- Snowberg, Erik, and Justin Wolfers. 2010. Explaining the Favorite-Long shot bias: Is it risk-love or misperceptions? Journal of Political Economy 118: 723-46.
- Stark, Dudley, and Dominic Cortis. 2017. Balancing the book: Is it necessary and sufficient? The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 11: 1-6.
- Sung, Ming-Chien, Johnnie Eric Victor Johnson, and Itiel E. Dror. 2009. Complexity as a guide to understanding decision bias: A contribution to the favorite-longshot bias debate. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 22: 318-37.
- Terrell, Dek, and Amy Farmer. 1996. Optimal betting and efficiency in parimutuel betting markets with information costs. The Economic Journal 106: 846-68.
- Vaughan Williams, Leighton, and David Paton. 1997. Why is there a favourite-longshot bias in british racetrack betting markets? The Economic Journal 107: 150-58.
- Winter, Stefan, and Martin Kukuk. 2006. Risk love and the favorite-longshot bias: Evidence from german harness horse racing. Schmalenbach Business Review (Sbr) 58: 349-64.
- Woodland, Linda M., and Bill M. Woodland. 1994. Market efficiency and the favorite-longshot bias: The baseball betting market. The Journal of Finance 49: 269-79.
- CrossRef · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets
Angelini, G., Angelis, L. D., & Singleton, C. (2021) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.05.012 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Hing, N., Browne, M., Rockloff, M., Russell, A. M. T., Tulloch, C., Lole, L., Thorne, H. B., & Newall, P. W. S. (2023) · Journal of Behavioral Addictions · doi:10.1556/2006.2023.00065 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationBetting on a buzz, mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks
Ramirez, P., Reade, J. J., & Singleton, C. (2022) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Weak Form Efficiency in Sports Betting Markets
(2023) · American Journal of Management · doi:10.33423/ajm.v23i2.6051 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Conversational Collective Intelligence (CCI) using Hyperchat AI in a Real-world Forecasting Task
Schumann, H., Rosenberg, L. B., Mani, G., & Willcox, G. (2025) · International HCI and UX Conference in Indonesia (CHIuXiD) · doi:10.1109/chiuxid68326.2025.11323746 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Prospect Theory and the Favorite Long-Shot Bias in Baseball
Nutaro, J. J. (2023) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks11050095 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Li, S., Xiao, J., Li, Y., & Chen, X. (2024) · Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems · doi:10.3233/jifs-232932 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Betting Without BetaPreprint
Moskowitz, T. J., & Vasudevan, K. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3845505 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, G., De Angelis, L., & Singleton, C. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3505287
The Importance of Betting Early
Innocenti, A., Nannicini, T., & Ricciuti, R. (2021) · Risks · doi:10.3390/risks9040067
Ryan, M. E., & Smolsky, D. (2023) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2023.2244254
Separating insider and informed behavior: Evidence from a natural setting
Hegarty, T. (2024) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/soej.12690
The Influence of Sports Betting on Classroom Attendance Among Ghanaian University StudentsPreprint
Luguterah, A. W., & Mohammed, S. M. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5036331
Shams, M. (2025) · Qeios · doi:10.32388/7a61rs
Kefeli, O. D., Özkaya, D., Eriç, S., & İnce, G. (2026) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-34519-6_37
- Authors
- Newall, P. W. S., & Cortis, D.
- Affiliations
- Central Queensland University (AU)
- University of Malta (MT)
- Corresponding author
- Newall, Philip W. S.
- Venue
- Risks
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2021-01-12
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 22
- ISSN
- 2227-9091 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3120981661
- Cited by
- 14
- References
- 75
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 3
- FWCI
- 0.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Risks (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Keywords
- favorite-longshot bias, sports betting, horse racing betting, betting odds
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
