Emission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation
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Abstract
Abstract. This study examines the impacts of emissions from aviation in six source regions on global and regional temperature. We consider the NOx-induced impacts on ozone and methane, aerosols and contrail-cirrus formation, and calculate the global and regional climate metrics Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) and Absolute Regional Temperature change Potential (ARTP). GWPs and GTPs vary by a factor 2–4 between source regions. We find the highest aviation aerosol metric values for South Asian emissions, while contrail-cirrus metrics are higher for Europe and North America, where contrail formation is prevalent, and South America plus Africa, where the optical depth is large once contrails form. The ARTP illustrate important differences in the latitudinal patterns of radiative forcing (RF) and temperature response: The temperature response in a given latitude band can be considerably stronger than suggested by the RF in that band, also emphasizing the importance of large-scale circulation impacts. To place our metrics in context, we quantify the temperature response in the four broad latitude bands following a one-year pulse emission from present-day aviation, including CO2. Aviation over North America and Europe cause the largest net warming impact in all latitude bands, reflecting the higher air traffic activity here. For all regions, the largest single warming contribution is from contrail-cirrus 20 years after the emissions, while CO2 becomes dominant at 100 years, although contrail-cirrus remain important in several regions also on this time scale. Our emission metrics can be further used to estimate regional temperature impact under alternative aviation emission scenarios. A first evaluation of the ARTP in the context of aviation suggests that further work to account for vertical sensitivities in the relationship between RF and temperature response would be valuable for further use of the concept.
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The GWPs and GTPs for soot and sulfate reported here are larger in magnitude (positive and negative) than previous estimates.
“while soot and sulfate numbers are larger in magnitude (positive and negative) than previous estimates (Fuglestvedt et al., 2010; Lund et al., 2017).”
From The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018 (2021) · cites this paper as Lund et al., 2017
The GWPs and GTPs for contrail cirrus and water vapor reported here are similar to, albeit slightly smaller than, corresponding results previously reported.
“GWPs and GTPs for contrail cirrus and for water vapor reported here are similar to, albeit slightly smaller than, corresponding results previ ously reported”
From The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018 (2021) · cites this paper as Lund et al., 2017
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Lund, M. T., Aamaas, B., Berntsen, T., Bock, L., Burkhardt, U., Fuglestvedt, J. S., & Shine, K. P.
- Affiliations
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE)
- University of Reading (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Lund, Marianne T.
- Aamaas, Borgar
- Berntsen, Terje
- Bock, Lisa
- Burkhardt, Ulrike
- Fuglestvedt, Jan S.
- Shine, Keith P.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Earth System Dynamics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2017-07-10
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 547-563
- ISSN
- 2190-4979 (ISSN-L)
- 2190-4987
- OpenAlex
- W2586065957
- Cited by
- 63
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 3.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth System Dynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- elib (German Aerospace Center) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Federal Aviation Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Keywords
- aviation emissions, global warming potential, global temperature change potential, NOx emissions, ozone, methane, contrail cirrus, radiative forcing, regional temperature change, CO2 emissions, source regions, large-scale circulation
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