Global carbon budget 2013
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Abstract
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).
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Fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with global net land carbon flux from 1979 to 2012 (ρ=−0.38 and ρ=−0.48, n=33, P<0.05 and P<0.01).
“Likewise, fire weather season length and long fire weather season affected area were significantly correlated with global net land carbon flux calculated from an analysis of the global carbon budget from 1979 to 2012 (ref. 48) (See Supplementary Methods) (ρ=−0.38 and ρ=−0.48, n=33, P<0.05 and P<0.01, respectively, Supplementary Fig. 9).”
From Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 (2015) · cites this paper as [48]
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Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use flux estimatesPreprint
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Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
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Cited by
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Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., et al. (2020) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020 · Cited by 2,544 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
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Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Hauck, J., Pongratz, J., Pickers, P. A., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., et al. (2018) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 · Cited by 1,645 · see citing works
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Self-citationPersistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M. R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2014) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2248 · Cited by 771 · see citing works
Self-citationEkolu, S. O. (2016) · Construction and Building Materials · doi:10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2016.09.056 · Cited by 250 · see citing works
- Authors
- Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Arvanitis, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Doney, S. C., Harper, A., Harris, I., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Körtzinger, A., Koven, C., Lefèvre, N., Maignan, F., Omar, A., Ono, T., Park, G.-H., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schwinger, J., Segschneider, J., Stocker, B. D., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., & Zaehle, S.
- Affiliations
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Appalachian State University (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO)
- Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (JP)
- Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KR)
- Montana State University (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE)
- Japan Meteorological Agency (JP)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Met Office (GB)
- ORCID
- Le Quéré, C.
- Peters, G. P.
- Andres, R. J.
- Andrew, R. M.
- Ciais, P.
- Friedlingstein, P.
- Houghton, R. A.
- Moriarty, R.
- Sitch, S.
- Tans, P.
- Arneth, A.
- Bakker, D. C. E.
- Bopp, L.
- Canadell, J. G.
- Chini, L. P.
- Doney, S. C.
- Harper, A.
- Harris, I.
- House, J. I.
- Jain, A. K.
- Jones, S. D.
- Kato, E.
- Keeling, R. F.
- Körtzinger, A.
- Koven, C.
- Lefèvre, N.
- Maignan, F.
- Omar, A.
- Ono, T.
- Pfeil, B.
- Poulter, B.
- Raupach, M. R.
- Regnier, P.
- Rödenbeck, C.
- Saito, S.
- Schwinger, J.
- Segschneider, J.
- Stocker, B. D.
- Takahashi, T.
- Tilbrook, B.
- van Heuven, S.
- Viovy, N.
- Wanninkhof, R.
- Wiltshire, A.
- Zaehle, S.
- Venue
- Earth System Science Data
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2014-06-17
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 235-263
- ISSN
- 1866-3508 (ISSN-L)
- 1866-3516
- OpenAlex
- W2915278450
- Cited by
- 450
- References
- 116
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 46 · 2016: 64 · 2015: 106 · 2014: 54 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 73.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth system science data (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Institutional Archive of Ifremer (French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea) (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Open Access Server of the Woods Hole Scientific Community (Woods Hole Scientific Community) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Dépôt institutionnel de l'Université libre de Bruxelles (Université Libre de Bruxelles) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DEAC05- 00OR22725, 1048827, 1243071)
- U.S. Department of Energy (AC05-00OR22725, DE--AC05--00OR22725, DE-AC05?, DESC0006706, Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725, 00OR22725)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AD94G, DE-AC05-00OR22725)
- Leverhulme Trust
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- European Commission (264879, 282672, 283080, 603542)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (226520)
- Ministry of Environment
- Norges Forskningsråd
- Office of Science (DEAC05- 00OR22725, AC05-00OR22725)
- Natural Environment Research Council (GA 01101, NE/I03002X/1, NE/J010154/1)
- Biological and Environmental Research (00OR22725, DE‐AC05–00OR22725)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (AC05-00OR22725, DE-AC05-00OR22725)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Keywords
- global carbon budget, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, fossil fuel combustion, cement production, land use change emissions, deforestation, ocean carbon sink, terrestrial carbon sink, atmospheric CO2 concentration, carbon cycle, uncertainty estimates, dynamic global vegetation models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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