The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis
Open accessAbstract
Abstract. Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.
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Cites
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., et al. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3800.1 · Cited by 2,902
Self-citationClimate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity
Behrenfeld, M. J., O’Malley, R. T., Siegel, D. A., McClain, C. R., Sarmiento, J. L., Feldman, G. C., Milligan, A. J., Falkowski, P. G., Letelier, R. M., & Boss, E. S. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature05317 · Cited by 2,485
Mesoscale Iron Enrichment Experiments 1993-2005: Synthesis and Future Directions
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Sarmiento, J. L., Hughes, T. M. C., Stouffer, R. J., & Manabe, S. (1998) · Nature · doi:10.1038/30455 · Cited by 899 · cited 1×
“Two different regimes for change in PP and EP are identified, that were already discussed previously in the literature (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 1998).”
BackgroundUpper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., & Lindsay, K. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002220 · Cited by 889
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Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
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Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems
Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett Duffy, J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., Grebmeier, J. M., Hollowed, A. B., Knowlton, N., et al. (2012) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 · Cited by 3,014
Self-citationProcesses and patterns of oceanic nutrient limitation
Moore, C. M., Mills, M. M., Arrigo, K. R., Berman-Frank, I., Bopp, L., Boyd, P. W., Galbraith, E. D., Geider, R. J., Guieu, C., Jaccard, S. L., et al. (2013) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1765 · Cited by 2,236
Self-citationMultiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., et al. (2013) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013 · Cited by 1,649
Self-citationKwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897
Self-citationA Global Pattern of Thermal Adaptation in Marine Phytoplankton
Thomas, M. K., Kremer, C. T., Klausmeier, C. A., & Litchman, E. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1224836 · Cited by 847
Metadata
- Authors
- Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., & Segschneider, J.
- Venue
- Biogeosciences
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2010-03-11
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 979-1005
- ISSN
- 1726-4170 (ISSN-L)
- 1726-4189
- OpenAlex
- W2065947563
- Cited by
- 634
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 32.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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