Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Open accessAbstract
Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO 2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO 2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (−6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from −15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long‐term observing systems are implemented.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using two coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs and two biogeochemical schemes, Bopp et al. simulate a +1% CO2/yr increase to 2xCO2 and find a ~6% global decline in marine export production, with low-latitude decreases and high-latitude increases. The response is driven by increased stratification reducing nutrient supply and lengthening the growing season, but regional results depend strongly on ocean dynamics and biogeochemical complexity.
Key findings
- At 2xCO2 (years 65–75), all three simulations predict a global export-production decrease of about 6%: LG 13.1→12.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%), AG 9.5→8.9 GtC yr−1 (−5.9%), and LB 11.1→10.3 GtC yr−1 (−6.6%). Low latitudes decline (−10.1%, −10.9%, −11.0%) while high latitudes increase (+5.1%, +5.5%, +12.5%); the text reports tropical zonal decreases reaching −15 to −20% and subpolar increases greater than 10%.
- Mechanisms: increased upper-ocean stratification reduces nutrient supply (surface PO4 decreases; upwelling reduced nearly −10%) and increases light efficiency via a longer growing season, which lengthens by up to 50 days at 2xCO2. This produces a poleward shift of marine production.
- LB diagnostics show declines in total primary production (−8.9%), surface phytoplankton cell content (−6.3%), and surface chlorophyll (−8.5%). In the LG run extended to 4xCO2, export production is reduced by more than 15%; around 3xCO2 (year 110) it is reduced by 11%.
- Detectability: in the equatorial Pacific, Δ/σ reaches 1 after 30 years and 2 after 60 years; the detectability index reaches 2 after 30 years, or 45 years if interannual variability is doubled. The authors suggest detection may be possible when atmospheric pCO2 reaches 450 ppm.
Methods
- Offline biogeochemical simulations were forced by archived ocean advection and vertical diffusion from two coupled GCMs (LMD5/OPAICE and ARPEGE/OPAICE), both using the OPAICE ocean model. Control pCO2 was 350 ppm; the scenario increased CO2 at 1% yr−1 for 80 years to 2xCO2 (700 ppm), without flux correction.
- Two biogeochemical schemes were used: G (HAMOCC3, phosphate-based, no explicit biology) coupled to L and A, and B (P3ZD NPZD, explicit plankton) coupled to L, giving three pairs: LG, AG, and LB. Simulations were initialized from the final steady state of Aumont et al. [1999].
- Control runs were evaluated against observations (PO4, SeaWiFS chlorophyll, export production). Global warming response was analyzed as scenario minus control at 2xCO2 (years 65–75), with zonal means, sensitivity tests, and a detectability index.
Limitations
- Stated: two major uncertainties are ocean dynamics and biogeochemical scheme. AG and LG differ notably in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific; the Southern Ocean is particularly sensitive. Better hydrological cycle representation, subgrid-scale eddy mixing, downslope transport, and higher resolution are needed.
- Stated: phosphate-based schemes lack limitation by Fe, N, and Si and do not account for plankton species competition or external atmospheric iron deposition. B includes zooplankton grazing but omits other nutrients. Control biases include SST errors, inadequate Antarctic sea ice, mixed-layer depth biases, and overestimated chlorophyll in equatorial Pacific/HNLC regions.
- Evident from the text: regional conclusions are model-dependent; for example, LB shows no change in the North Pacific while LG and AG predict a 10–20% decrease, and Southern Ocean patterns differ among models. The paper itself notes that the link between the present ocean state and future changes is not clear.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 14 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingreasoning§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3
At 2xCO2, marine export production decreases globally by about 6%.
“Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (-6%)”
- Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13 · plain
- Findingown data§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3
At 2xCO2, regional changes in marine export production range from -15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean.
“regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from -15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3
Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes.
“Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13
All three models simulate a reduction of ~6% in global export production at 2xCO2.
“All three models simulate a reduction of ~ 6% (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13
Marine productivity in our global warming simulations was substantially altered, relative to the control with both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes.
“Marine productivity in our global warming simulations was substantially altered, relative to the control with both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13
This global decrease in export production is linked to a decrease of similar magnitude of the mean surface phosphate concentration.
“This global decrease in export production is linked to a decrease of similar magnitude of the mean surface phosphate concentration (Figure 6a).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13
Models AG, LG, and LB all predict a global decrease in export production at 2xCO2, i.e., during years 65-75.
“Models AG, LG, and LB all predict a global decrease in export production at 2xCO2, i.e., during years 65-75 (Figure 6b).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11
For simulation LBc, the link between export production and surface PO43- concentrations is not so evident because the mechanisms of export are more complex.
“For simulation LBc, the mechanisms of export are more complex so that the link between export production and surface PO₄³- concentrations is not so evident.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 7
Both global warming simulations showed substantial change relative to their control runs.
“Both global warming simulations (As and Ls) showed substantial change relative to their control runs (Ac and Lc) [Barthelet et al., 1998a,b].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Barthelet et al., 1998a,b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data§ 3.3. Biogeochemical Global Warming Runs · p. 13
Except during the first 20 years of AG simulation, all models show a positive correlation between global export production and global mean surface PO43- concentration.
“Except during the first 20 years of AG simulation, all models show a positive correlation between global export production and global mean surface PO₄³- concentration.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11
In LBc, the total primary production is estimated to 64.7 GtC yr−1, which is near the upper limit of previous estimates.
“In LBc, the total primary production is estimated to 64.7 GtC yr−1, which is near the upper limit of previous estimates [Martin et al., 1987; Antoine et al., 1996].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Interpretationnone given§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3
At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails on marine production.
“At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11
Within the large uncertainties associated with the derivation, export production derived from observations is generally consistent with that simulated by our three models.
“Within the large uncertainties associated with such a derivation, export production derived from the observations are generally consistent with that simulated by our three models (Figure 5).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 5
Differences between simulated sea surface temperature at the end of the control simulations and present-day SST show some systematic biases.
“However, differences between simulated sea surface temperature (SST) at the end of the control simulations and the present-day SST [Levitus, 1982] show some systematic biases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Levitus, 1982
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction · p. 3
The upper ocean becomes globally more stratified owing to increases in surface temperature and precipitation.
“Additionally, the upper ocean becomes globally more stratified owing to increases in surface temperature and precipitation [Manabe et al., 1991; Manabe and Stouffer, 1993; Sarmiento et al., 1998].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Study design and conductcitation§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 5
The climate of the two control simulations remains stable over the duration of the simulation (80 years).
“The climate of our two control simulations, one with each coupled model (Lc and Ac), remains stable over the duration of the simulation (80 years) [Barthelet et al., 1998a,b].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Barthelet et al., 1998a,b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationnone given§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11
The simple phosphate-based G scheme causes export production to closely follow surface PO43- concentrations.
“The simple phosphate-based G scheme used in these two models causes export production to closely follow surface PO₄³- concentrations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11
Differences in export production between LGc and AGc result mainly from differences in vertical mixing intensity.
“As might be expected, differences in export production between these two models result mainly from differences in vertical mixing intensity (see section 3.2.1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- May combine two claims. 11
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 4
May combine two claims.
Findingown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11In the Southern Ocean, export production simulated in LGc and AGc is much larger than derived estimates; much better agreement is found with simulation LBc.
“In the Southern Ocean though, export production simulated in LGc and AGc is much larger than derived estimates. Conversely, much better agreement is found with simulation LBc, with its more sophisticated biogeochemistry.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 7The increase in precipitation over the ocean during the last decade of integration was +2-3% for Ls-Lc and +3-4% for As-Ac.
“The increase in precipitation over the ocean during the last decade of integration was +2-3% for Ls-Lc and +3-4% for As-Ac.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 7Most notable were increases in SST and near-surface ocean stratification, owing both to warming and increased precipitation.
“Most notable were increases in SST (Figure 2b) and near-surface ocean stratification, owing both to warming and increased precipitation (Figure 2c).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11Simulated EP is 13.1 GtC yr−1 in LGc, 9.5 GtC yr−1 in AGc, and 11.1 GtC yr−1 in LBc.
“Simulated EP is 13.1 GtC yr−1 in LGc, 9.5 GtC yr−1 in AGc, and 11.1 GtC yr−1 in LBc.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3At 2xCO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency.
“At 2xCO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ 1. Introduction · p. 3Coupled models simulate that Earth's surface warms by 1°-3°C when atmospheric CO2 reaches twice its preindustrial concentration.
“Coupled models converge to a global warming and simulate that Earth's surface warms by 1°- 3°C when atmospheric CO2 reaches twice its preindustrial concentration [Houghton et al., 1996].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Houghton et al., 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11These global estimates fall in the range of POC export production estimated from observations (3.5-20 GtC yr−1) and from simulations with other global carbon cycle models (8.5-15 GtC yr−1).
“These global estimates fall in the range of POC export production estimated from observations (3.5-20 GtC yr−1) [Berger and Wefer, 1991; Jahnke, 1996] as well as that from simulations with other global carbon cycle models (8.5-15 GtC yr−1)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Berger and Wefer, 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Jahnke, 1996 source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitation§ 2.3. Carbon-Climate Simulations · p. 5The G scheme, coupled to OPA, has been validated for the seasonal cycle of biogeochemical tracers and for the interannual variability of carbon fluxes to the ocean.
“This G scheme, coupled to OPA (Océan Parallélisé), has been validated both for the seasonal cycle of biogeochemical tracers [Aumont, 1998] and for the interannual variability of carbon fluxes to the ocean [Le Quéré et al., 2000].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Aumont, 1998
- cites Le Quéré et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 5The overall atmospheric and oceanic circulations simulated in both control simulations are generally consistent with modern observations and capture the gross features of the present-day climate.
“The overall atmospheric and oceanic circulations simulated in both control simulations are generally consistent with modern observations and thus capture the gross features of the present-day climate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11The maximum in export production in the central and western equatorial Pacific is not due to higher productivity than in the eastern part; it is explained by a larger vertical extent of production in this region due to a deep mixed layer, unlike in the east where all production occurs within the top 30 m due to a shallow mixed layer.
“Thus the maximum in export production in the central and western equatorial Pacific is not due to higher productivity than in the eastern part. Instead, it is explained by a larger vertical extent of production in this region (due to a deep mixed layer) unlike in the east where all production occurs within the top 30 m (due to a shallow mixed layer).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ Potential impact of climate change on marine export production · p. 3The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.
“The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoning§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11All three of our biogeochemical schemes are phosphate based and lack limitation by other nutrients such as Fe, N, and Si; they will thus necessarily fail to reproduce many patterns.
“Again, we emphasize that all three of our biogeochemical schemes are phosphate based. They lack limitation by other nutrients such as Fe, N, and Si. They will thus necessarily fail to reproduce many patterns”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown data§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 7Both estimates of global average surface warming fall within the range of other CMIP models (1°-3°C).
“Both estimates fall within the range of other CMIP models (1°-3°C).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ 2.3. Carbon-Climate Simulations · p. 5The B scheme explicitly includes plankton dynamics.
“Our second biogeochemical scheme is more true to that term since it explicitly includes plankton dynamics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Aumont et al., 2000
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ 3.1. Climate Runs · p. 11The deeper that POC production occurs, the less it is regenerated in the first 100 m by grazing or remineralization, and the more it is exported.
“The deeper that POC production occurs, the less it is regenerated in the first 100 m by grazing or remineralization, and the more it is exported.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Future climate change will affect marine productivity.
“Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.
“Phytoplankton growth depends on the local conditions of light, temperature, and vertical eddy diffusion, which acts to homogenize the concentration of phytoplankton cells throughout the complete mixed layer.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the top 100 m of the water column, POC sinks at a constant rate.
“In the top 100 m of the water column, POC is assumed to sink at a constant r a s sd ( om depth and thereby contribute to particulate export production as defined for this paper.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Any such changes in marine productivity would propagate up to the marine foodweb.
“Any such changes would obviously propagate up to the marine foodweb.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Conclusion's latitude changes conflict with Table 2
MajorThe conclusion reports a 20% decrease at low latitudes and a 30% increase at high latitudes. Table 2 reports low-latitude decreases of 10.1-11.0% and high-latitude increases of 5.1-12.5% for the three models.
“Climate-induced changes in the ocean decreased export production by 20% in the low latitudes but increased export production by 30% in the high latitudes.”
“| High Latitude | 0.87 | 0.91 (+5.1%) | 0.87 | 0.93 (+5.5%) | 0.27 | 0.30 (+12.5%) | | Midlatitude | 6.5 | 6.1 (-5.1%) | 5.2 | 4.9 (-4.7%) | 4.0 | 3.9 (-0.5%) | | Low Latitude | 5.8 | 5.2 (-10.1%) | 3.5 | 3.1 (-10.9%) | 6.8 | 6.1 (-11.0%) |”
AGs is assigned the L-model climate forcing
MinorTable 1b assigns AGs the Ls climate forcing, but the paper identifies AG as the A-model experiment; Table 1a names its scenario forcing As.
“| AGs | HAMOCC3 | Ls |”
“| As | Scenario | ARPEGE/OPAICE |”
North Pacific comparison cites the wrong Plate 2 panels
MinorThe text cites panels 2d and 2e for the LG-versus-LB climate-change comparison. The caption identifies those panels as the AG change and the LB control; the LG and LB change panels are 2b and 2f.
“slight increase of export (Plates 2d and 2e).”
“Plate 2. Export Production (in gC m−2 yr−1) for (a) LGc, (b) LGs-LGc at 2xCO2, (c) AGc, (d) AGs-AGc, (e) LBc, and (f) LBs-LBc.”
Detectability comparison names the wrong scenario run
MinorThe equatorial-Pacific detectability analysis is described as using the LB model and its LBs scenario, but the significance statement instead compares LGs with LBc.
“When DI reaches 2, simulated export in LGs is significantly different from that in LBc at a 95% confidence level.”
“The evolution of export production in the equatorial Pacific, simulated with LBs, shows a rapid decline.”
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Orr, J. C., Fabry, V. J., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Gnanadesikan, A., Gruber, N., Ishida, A., Joos, F., et al. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04095 · Cited by 4,590 · see citing works
Self-citationMultiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P. R., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., et al. (2013) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013 · Cited by 1,682 · see citing works
“…ocean stratification and changes in ocean mixing and ventilation that could induce indirect effects, which in turn reduce subsurface dissolved O 2 concentrations (Plattner et al., 2001) and supply of nutri-ents to the euphotic layer, increasing nutrient stress for phytoplankton (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationHuman-induced nitrogen–phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe
Peñuelas, J., Poulter, B., Sardans, J., Ciais, P., van der Velde, M., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Goddéris, Y., Hinsinger, P., Llusià, J., et al. (2013) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms3934 · Cited by 1,525 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Prentice, I. C., Farquhar, G. D., Fasham, M. J. R., GOULDEN, M. L., Heimann, M., Jaramillo, V. J., Kheshgi, H. S., Quéré, C. L., Scholes, R. J., Wallace, D. W. R., et al. (2001) · HAL · Cited by 1,128 · see citing works
Self-citationSummer heatwaves promote blooms of harmful cyanobacteria
Jöhnk, K., Huisman, J., Sharples, J., Sommeijer, B. P., Visser, P., & Stroom, J. M. (2007) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01510.x · Cited by 1,098 · see citing works
“Warming of surface layers will increase vertical stratification, which suppresses the upward flux of nutrients (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004).”
BackgroundLeckie, R. M., Bralower, T. J., & Cashman, R. (2002) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/2001pa000623 · Cited by 976 · see citing works
“Coupled atmosphereocean general circulation models with two different biogeochemical schemes predict that rising levels of CO2 and global warming will cause increased ocean stratification leading to reduced nutrient supply to the euphotic zone and increased light efficiency (longer growing season), with both effects c…”
BackgroundZooplankton fecal pellets, marine snow, phytodetritus and the ocean’s biological pump
Turner, J. T. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.08.005 · Cited by 981 · see citing works
“…of the export flux through the biological pump, particularly in alreadystratified waters of the tropics and subtropics (Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyce et al., 2010; Doney, 2006; Huisman et al., 2006; Matear and Hirst, 1999; Norris et al., 2013; Sarmiento et al., 1998, 2004;…”
BackgroundKwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897 · see citing works
“Earth system model projections consistently show enhanced stratification and associated reductions in euphotic zone nutrient concentrations under scenarios of climate change (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Cabré et al., 2014; Fu et al., 2016).”
BackgroundSelf-citationResponse of ocean ecosystems to climate warming
Sarmiento, J., Slater, R., Barber, R., Bopp, L., Doney, S., Hirst, A., Kleypas, J., Matear, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Monfray, P., et al. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2003gb002134 · Cited by 982 · see citing works
“Cycles, 18, GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationUpper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., & Lindsay, K. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002220 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
“Basin- and global-scale ecosystem modeling studies have been published during the past decade, but most have not included iron as a limiting nutrient [i.e., Sarmiento et al., 1993; Six and Maier-Reimer, 1996; Oschlies and Garçon, 1999; Bopp et al., 2001; Palmer and Totterdell, 2001].”
BackgroundResultEcosystem dynamics based on plankton functional types for global ocean biogeochemistry models
Quéré, C. L., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Claustre, H., da Cunha, L. C., Geider, R. J., Giraud, X., et al. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.1004.x · Cited by 851 · see citing works
“(2001) and include results from ocean models (Maier-Reimer et al., 1996; Sarmiento et al., 1998; Joos et al., 1999; Matear & Hirst 1999; Bopp et al., 2001; Dutay et al., 2002) and terrestrial models (Cramer et al.”
BackgroundSelf-citationA Global Pattern of Thermal Adaptation in Marine Phytoplankton
Thomas, M. K., Kremer, C. T., Klausmeier, C. A., & Litchman, E. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1224836 · Cited by 847 · see citing works
Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., et al. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-979-2010 · Cited by 635 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change and the future for coral reef fishes
Munday, P. L., Jones, G. P., Pratchett, M. S., & Williams, A. J. (2008) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00281.x · Cited by 610 · see citing works
“…in primary productivity caused by increased thermal stratification of the water column and reduced nutrient input from cooler, deeper waters, combined with increased metabolic rates of most organisms at higher ocean temperatures (Bopp et al. 2001, 2005; Loukos et al. 2003; Hobday et al. 2006).”
BackgroundIncreasing importance of small phytoplankton in a warmer ocean
Morán, X. A. G., López‐Urrutia, Á., Calvo‐Díaz, A., & Li, W. K. W. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01960.x · Cited by 610 · see citing works
“…on the biomass and production of phytoplankton assemblages in the context of global ocean warming have been addressed in several studies (Bopp et al., 2001; Richardson & Schoeman, 2004; Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Li et al., 2006a), but seldom focused specifically on the smallest size…”
BackgroundWarming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change
Gruber, N. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0003 · Cited by 588 · see citing works
Abyssal food limitation, ecosystem structure and climate change
SMITH, C., Deleo, F., Bernardino, A. F., SWEETMAN, A., & Arbizu, P. M. (2008) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.05.002 · Cited by 578 · see citing works
Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food‐web models
Siegel, D. A., Buesseler, K. O., Doney, S. C., Sailley, S. F., Behrenfeld, M. J., & Boyd, P. W. (2014) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2013gb004743 · Cited by 498 · see citing works
Doney, S. C. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/444695a · Cited by 481 · see citing works
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity
Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P. P., Bopp, L., Lima, I. D., Doney, S. C., John, J. G., & Beaulieu, C. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010 · Cited by 489 · see citing works
“Similarly, an experiment with an earlier version of the IPSL model, forced with a CO2 doubling scenario, demonstrated that it took between 30 and 60 years to detect changes in export production in the equatorial Pacific (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationUnderstanding the export of biogenic particles in oceanic waters: Is there consensus?
Boyd, P. W., & Trull, T. W. (2006) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2006.10.007 · Cited by 473 · see citing works
Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health
Moore, S. K., Trainer, V. L., Mantua, N. J., Parker, M. S., Laws, E. A., Backer, L. C., & Fleming, L. E. (2008) · Environmental Health · doi:10.1186/1476-069x-7-s2-s4 · Cited by 462 · see citing works
“These studies suggest that the warmer upper ocean temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios will increase stratification of the water column and differentially influence phytoplankton growth in the global oceans [23,30-34].”
BackgroundResponse of diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: A global model study
Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Cadule, P., Alvain, S., & Gehlen, M. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl023653 · Cited by 455 · see citing works
“Subsequent higher productivity at high latitudes is more than counter-balanced by an increase in the severity and the spatial extent of the oligotrophic regions [Bopp et al., 2001], thus leading to a mean reduction of global ocean primary productivity.”
BackgroundSelf-citationBoyd, P. W., Rynearson, T. A., Armstrong, E. A., Fu, F., Hayashi, K., Hu, Z., Hutchins, D. A., Kudela, R. M., Litchman, E., Mulholland, M. R., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063091 · Cited by 429 · see citing works
“To date, much of the progress in understanding how climate change will manifest itself in the ocean has come from projections obtained from global modelling experiments using general circulation or coupled ocean atmosphere models [1,2].”
BackgroundSouthern Ocean Phytoplankton in a Changing Climate
Deppeler, S., & Davidson, A. T. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00040 · Cited by 446 · see citing works
“Some studies suggest that an increase in open ocean habitat will increase production in this region (Bopp et al., 2001; Behrenfeld et al., 2006).”
BackgroundMajor impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems
Sweetman, A. K., Thurber, A. R., Smith, C. R., Levin, L. A., Mora, C., Wei, C., GOODAY, A. J., Jones, D. O. B., Rex, M. A., Yasuhara, M., et al. (2017) · Elementa Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.1525/elementa.203 · Cited by 433 · see citing works
“Major changes in the upper ocean resulting from global warming are likely to include increased sea-surface temperatures and thermal stratification, and reduced nutrient upwelling over vast areas of the open ocean (Bopp et al., 2001; Gregg et al., 2003; Fischlin et al., 2007; Smith et al., 2008).”
BackgroundCoccolithophores and the biological pump: responses to environmental changes
Rost, B., & Riebesell, U. (2004) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-06278-4_5 · Cited by 408 · see citing works
“Recent model calculations indicate large regional differences in the effects of climate change on the marine ecosystem, predicting a 20% decrease in export production in low latitudes and a 30% increase in high latitudes for a 2 × CO2 scenario (Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundMarine viruses and global climate change
Danovaro, R., Corinaldesi, C., Dell’Anno, A., Fuhrman, J. A., Middelburg, J. J., Noble, R. T., & Suttle, C. A. (2010) · FEMS Microbiology Reviews · doi:10.1111/j.1574-6976.2010.00258.x · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita, M. N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E. T., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Hashioka, T., et al. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015 · Cited by 396 · see citing works
“Further, top– down control affects the onset of the spring bloom (Behrenfeld, 2010; Behrenfeld et al., 2013), influences primary production in a trait-based ecosystem model (Prowe et al., 2012) and affects NPP and export production changes on regional scales (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationSchmittner, A., Oschlies, A., Matthews, H. D., & Galbraith, E. D. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002953 · Cited by 400 · see citing works
“They increase at high latitudes because of reduced sea ice cover and a longer growing season in agreement with earlier findings by Bopp et al. [2001]. North of about 55!N, plankton abundance increases in the North Atlantic because of deeper mixed layers and a northward shift in convections sites.”
ResultThe biological pump in a high CO2 world
Passow, U., & Carlson, C. (2012) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps09985 · Cited by 401 · see citing works
“While we can predict changes due to individual forces (Table 2), or a combination of forces (Bopp et al. 2001), we are currently unable to predict with certainty if the global biological pump will strengthen or weaken in the next 100 yr.”
BackgroundReduced mixing generates oscillations and chaos in the oceanic deep chlorophyll maximum
Huisman, J., Thi, N. N. P., Karl, D. M., & Sommeijer, B. P. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04245 · Cited by 393 · see citing works
Science Plan and Implementation Strategy
Young, B., Noone, K. J., & Steffen, W. (2006) · Cited by 387 · see citing works
Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Doney, S. C., Long, M. C., & Misumi, K. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00566.1 · Cited by 389 · see citing works
Alvain, S., Moulin, C., Dandonneau, Y., & Loisel, H. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003154 · Cited by 348 · see citing works
“…biological pump participates in regulating the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and is thought to be very sensitive to the forthcoming climate change [Cox et al., 2000; Bopp et al., 2001; Dufresnes et al., 2002; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Le Quéré and Metzl, 2004; Le Quéré et al., 2006].”
BackgroundRost, B., Zondervan, I., & Wolf-Gladrow, D. A. (2008) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps07776 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
“…further extension of nutrient-limited, low-productivity regions such as subtropical gyres (Bopp et al. 2001, Behrenfeld et al. 2006), and increases in productivity in high-latitude regions currently light-limited owing to pronounced vertical mixing can be expected (Bopp et al. 2001, Doney 2006).”
BackgroundClimate‐induced oceanic oxygen fluxes: Implications for the contemporary carbon budget
Bopp, L., Quéré, C. L., Heimann, M., Manning, A. C., & Monfray, P. (2002) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2001gb001445 · Cited by 339 · see citing works
“[46] To test the robustness of this relationship, two other simulations were used [Friedlingstein et al., 2001; Bopp et al., 2001].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationEnvironmental control of open‐ocean phytoplankton groups: Now and in the future
Boyd, P., Strzepek, R., Fu, F.-X., & Hutchins, D. A. (2010) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.4319/lo.2010.55.3.1353 · Cited by 323 · see citing works
“On this basis, some modeling studies (Bopp et al. 2001; Behrenfeld et al. 2006) predict that climate change may increase net primary production at high latitudes but decrease it in low-latitude waters.”
BackgroundDecline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation
Schmittner, A. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03476 · Cited by 328 · see citing works
“In the case of enhanced future global warming, additional effects such as increased stratification due to upper ocean warming will affect marine productivit”
BackgroundSensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change
Riebesell, U., Körtzinger, A., & Oschlies, A. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0813291106 · Cited by 323 · see citing works
Gruber, N. (2008) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-372522-6.00001-3 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
“On the other hand, export production in the mid-to high-latitudes may actually increase due to lower light stress in a shallower mixed layer (Bopp et al., 2001).”
BackgroundModelling regional responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate change
Boyd, P., & Doney, S. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2001gl014130 · Cited by 347 · see citing works
“To account for the effect of multidecadal to centennial trends in upper thermocline nutrient fields, the subsurface nutrient fields are reduced uniformly by 10% after Bopp et al. [2001]. Note, that accurate predictions of the biotic response to reduced nutrients require data on algal uptake kinetics in relation to cha…”
MethodOn the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources
Stock, C. A. A., Alexander, M. A., Bond, N. A., Brander, K., Cheung, W. W. L., Curchitser, E., Delworth, T. L., Dunne, J. P. P., Griffies, S. M., Haltuch, M. A., et al. (2010) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.001 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Temperature–nutrient interactions exacerbate sensitivity to warming in phytoplankton
Thomas, M. K., Aranguren‐Gassis, M., Kremer, C. T., Gould, M. R., Anderson, K., Klausmeier, C. A., & Litchman, E. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13641 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTROLLING PHYTOPLANKTON PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN1
Boyd, P. W. (2002) · Journal of Phycology · doi:10.1046/j.1529-8817.2002.t01-1-01203.x · Cited by 305 · see citing works
“…Nelson et al. 2001) and Indian (modeling, Pondaven et al. 2000) sectors by Nelson et al. (2001). climate variability and change At present, global circulation models predict that climate change will have a marked effect on the South- ern Ocean (Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundMatear, R. J., & Hirst, A. C. (2003) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2002gb001997 · Cited by 303 · see citing works
“2 Gt C (7 decline) by 2100. The decline in the zonally export production occurs at all latitudes but the North Atlantic displays the greatest decline per unit area.”
BackgroundValenti, D., Denaro, G., Ferreri, R., Genovese, S., Aronica, S., Mazzola, S., Bonanno, A., Basilone, G., & Spagnolo, B. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00112-z · Cited by 295 · see citing works
Yool, A., Popova, E. E., & Anderson, T. R. (2013) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1767-2013 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Climate-Driven Basin-Scale Decadal Oscillations of Oceanic Phytoplankton
Martinez, É., Antoine, D., D’Ortenzio, F., & Gentili, B. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1177012 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
Fu, W., Randerson, J. T., & Moore, J. K. (2016) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-13-5151-2016 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Global change and the future of harmful algal blooms in the ocean
Fu, F., Tatters, A. O., & Hutchins, D. A. (2012) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps10047 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Estimating global impacts from climate change
Hitz, S., & Smith, J. B. (2004) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.010 · Cited by 277 · see citing works
“We examined one study that analysed changes in the production of marine ecosystems due to climate change: Bopp et al. (2001).”
BackgroundMetrics that matter for assessing the ocean biological carbon pump
Buesseler, K. O., Boyd, P. W., Black, E. E., & Siegel, D. A. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1918114117 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Feng, Y., Warner, M. E., Zhang, Y., Sun, J., Fu, F., Rose, J. M., & Hutchins, D. A. (2008) · European Journal of Phycology · doi:10.1080/09670260701664674 · Cited by 269 · see citing works
“Models have predicted that sea surface temperature (SST) will be elevated by at least a further 1–4°C in some areas of the ocean by the end of this century (Bopp et al , 2001 ; Sarmiento et al , 2002 ).”
BackgroundThe role of nutricline depth in regulating the ocean carbon cycle
Cermeño, P., Dutkiewicz, S., Harris, R., Follows, M. J., Schofield, O., & Falkowski, P. G. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0811302106 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
“Current evidence and modeling analyses suggest that climate warming will increase ocean stratification, and hence reduce nutrient exchange between the ocean interior and the upper mixed layer (21, 22).”
BackgroundSimulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO 2 ‐enhanced biotic carbon export
Oschlies, A., Schulz, K. G., Riebesell, U., & Schmittner, A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003147 · Cited by 266 · see citing works
“: RAPID INCREASE IN OCEANIC SUBOXIA 2 of 10 GB4008 upwelling of nutrients [Bopp et al., 2001].”
BackgroundFeng, Y., Hare, C. E., Leblanc, K., Rose, J. M., Zhang, Y., DiTullio, G., Lee, P., Wilhelm, S. W., Rowe, J., Sun, J., et al. (2009) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08133 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
“At the same time, warming associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has been predicted to raise sea surface temperature (SST) by 1 to 4°C over the next 100 yr (Bopp et al. 2001, Alley et al. 2007).”
BackgroundCan we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?
Taucher, J., & Oschlies, A. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl045934 · Cited by 237 · see citing works
“In this regard, our results are consistent with results from previous studies [Bopp et al., 2001; Cox et al., 2000; Fung et al., 2005], which all project a decrease in”
BackgroundResultBiomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean
Chust, G., Allen, J. I., Bopp, L., Schrum, C., Holt, J., Tsiaras, K. P., Zavatarelli, M., Chifflet, M., Cannaby, H., Dadou, I., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12562 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
“Bopp et al., 2001, 2013; Steinacher et al., 2010; Vichi et al., 2011), but relative and absolute magnitudes differ among models and regions. As in our case, multimodel comparisons (Steinacher et al., 2010; and Bopp et al., 2013) and the marine ecosystem model of Follows et al. (2007) with modifications (Dutkiewicz et…”
BackgroundSelf-citationCathalot, C., van Oevelen, D., Cox, T. J. S., Kutti, T., Lavaleye, M., Duineveld, G., & Meysman, F. J. R. (2015) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2015.00037 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Toward a better understanding of fish‐based contribution to ocean carbon flux
Saba, G. K., Burd, A. B., Dunne, J. P. P., Hernández‐León, S., Martin, A. H., Rose, K. A., Salisbury, J. E., Steinberg, D. K., Trueman, C. N., Wilson, R. W., et al. (2021) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.1002/lno.11709 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
“…(2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: LGc§ 100 13.1 2.1 Bopp et al. (2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: LBc¶ 100 11.1 1.8 Bopp et al. (2001) Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation: AGc** 100 9.5 1.5 Moore et al. (2001a,b) Prognostic ecosystem model†† NR 7.9…”
InfluentialBiogeography of the Global Ocean’s Mesopelagic Zone
Proud, R., Cox, M. J., & Brierley, A. S. (2016) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2016.11.003 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling
Zepp, R. G., Erickson, D. J., PAUL, N. D., & Sulzberger, B. (2007) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/b700021a · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Annual net community production and the biological carbon flux in the ocean
Emerson, S. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2013gb004680 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
Doney, S. C., Lima, I. D., Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Behrenfeld, M. J., Westberry, T. K., Mahowald, N. M., Glover, D. M., & Takahashi, T. (2008) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.015 · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Oceanographic and Biogeochemical Insights from Diatom Genomes
Bowler, C., Vardi, A., & Allen, A. E. (2009) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081051 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
On the magnitude of positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle
Dufresne, J., Fairhead, L., Treut, H. L., Berthelot, M., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., & Monfray, P. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2001gl013777 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
“This seems to be in contradiction with previous ocean only model studies [Sarmiento et al., 1998; Joos et al., 1999; Bopp et al., 2001] which all simulated that climate change reduces ocean carbon uptake.”
ResultSelf-citationThe Biological Carbon Pump in the North Atlantic
SANDERS, R. J., Henson, S. A., Koski, M., Rocha, C. L. D. L., Painter, S. C., Poulton, A. J., Riley, J. S., Salihoğlu, B., Visser, A. W., Yool, A., et al. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.05.005 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
“climate in the future (Bopp et al., 2001; Feely et al., 2004).”
Marinov, I., Doney, S. C., & Lima, I. D. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-3941-2010 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
“In contrast, a longer growing season and decreased ice cover has been suggested to lead to increased marine biomass and thus production at high latitudes (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004; Doney, 2006; Steinacher et al., 2010).”
BackgroundSources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors
Frölicher, T. L., Rodgers, K. B., Stock, C. A. A., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2016) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2015gb005338 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
“…1998; Capotondi et al., 2012], leading not only to a reduced supply of nutrients to the surface ocean and decreasing net primary productivity (NPP) [Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010] but also to a reduced resupply of oxygen to the ocean's interior sustaining deoxygenation and an…”
BackgroundNutrient limitation suppresses the temperature dependence of phytoplankton metabolic rates
Emilio Marañón, C., Lorenzo, M. N., Cermeño, P., & Mouriño‐Carballido, B. (2018) · The ISME Journal · doi:10.1038/s41396-018-0105-1 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
“ductivity, as a result of enhanced thermal stratification and lower nutrient supply from sub-surface waters [9, 10].”
BackgroundAdaptation of phytoplankton to a decade of experimental warming linked to increased photosynthesis
Schaum, C., Barton, S., Bestion, E., et al. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0094 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
“ = − + − + − b T E kT kT b T ln( ( )) 1 1 ln( ( )) ln 1 e (5) E kT kT a c c 1 1 h h”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialBridging ocean color observations of the 1980s and 2000s in search of long‐term trends
Antoine, D., Morel, A., Gordon, H. R., et al. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jc002620 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
“Their response to physical forcing is from hours to decades, the latter being probably typical of their slow response to global environmental changes [e.g., Bopp et al., 2001]; hence the need for long-term records.”
BackgroundZondervan, I. (2007) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.12.004 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
“Greenhouse warming may cause a warming of the ocean (Barnett et al., 2005) and a shallowing of the mixed layer (Levitus et al., 2000), changing nutrient concentrations and light conditions (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2004).”
BackgroundEmergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model
Rodgers, K. B., Lin, J., & Frölicher, T. L. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
“, 1998), leading to a reduced supply of nutrients to the euphotic zone (Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010), but also to a reduced resupply of oxygen to the ocean’s”
The trophodynamics of marine top predators: Current knowledge, recent advances and challenges
Young, J. W., Hunt, B. P. V., Cook, T. R., Llopiz, J. K., Hazen, E. L., Pethybridge, H. R., Ceccarelli, D., Lorrain, A., Olson, R. J., Allain, V., et al. (2015) · Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.05.015 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
“(Bopp et al., 2001; Hays et al., 2005; Richardson, 2008), these processes are likely to be key drivers of micronekton biomass and”
BackgroundEnvironmental fluctuations accelerate molecular evolution of thermal tolerance in a marine diatom
Schaum, C., Buckling, A. G. J., Smirnoff, N., Studholme, D. J., & Yvon‐Durocher, G. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03906-5 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Chapter 1 Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change
Reid, P. C., Fischer, A. C., Lewis‐Brown, E., Meredith, M. P., Sparrow, M., Andersson, A. J., Antia, A., Bates, N. R., Bathmann, U. V., Beaugrand, G., et al. (2009) · Advances in marine biology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2881(09)56001-4 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P. P., Hauck, J., John, J. G., Lima, I. D., et al. (2016) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Self-citationHeterotrophic Bacterial Respiration
Robinson, C. (2008) · doi:10.1002/9780470281840.ch9 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
“Model simulations under warmer and more stratified conditions suggest that reduced nutrient availability would prevail in low and mid latitudes and shallower mixed layers would occur at high latitudes, together leading to an approximately 9 percent decrease in global primary production (Bopp et al. 2001).”
BackgroundClimate-mediated dance of the plankton
Behrenfeld, M. J. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2349 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean
Dutkiewicz, S., Scott, J. R., & Follows, M. J. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/gbc.20042 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
“All Rights Reserved.”
Interactions of the iron and phosphorus cycles: A three‐dimensional model study
Dutkiewicz, S., Follows, M. J., & Parekh, P. (2005) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002342 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
“…the consequences of changes to productivity by other factors, such as increased stratification, longer growing season (e.g., in future climate change scenarios [Bopp et al., 2001]), may also be significant, especially in reference to nonlocal responses engendered by lateral supply of nutrients.”
BackgroundGlobal reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change
Jones, D. O. B., Yool, A., Wei, C., Henson, S. A., Ruhl, H. A., Watson, R. A., & Gehlen, M. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12480 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
“In turn, this is expected to reduce surface ocean production (Bopp et al., 2001; Steinacher et al., 2010) and hence the flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface to benthic communities.”
BackgroundKemp, A. E. S., Pearce, R., Grigorov, I., Rance, J., Lange, C. B., Quilty, P. G., & Salter, I. (2006) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2006gb002698 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
“, 1988] showed decreased carbon flux with increased stratification, a result corroborated using more sophisticated biological models including phytoplankton [Bopp et al., 2001].”
ResultFu, F., Mulholland, M. R., Garcia, N. S., Beck, A. J., Bernhardt, P. W., Warner, M. E., Sañudo‐Wilhelmy, S. A., & Hutchins, D. A. (2008) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.4319/lo.2008.53.6.2472 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Southern Ocean phytoplankton physiology in a changing climate
Petrou, K., Kranz, S. A., Trimborn, S., Hassler, C. S., Blanco‐Ameijeiras, S., Sackett, O., Ralph, P. J., & Davidson, A. T. (2016) · Journal of Plant Physiology · doi:10.1016/j.jplph.2016.05.004 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
“Increasing temperature is predicted to strengthen stratification and shallow the MLD, reducing the flux of nutrients to surface waters (Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002; Boyd et al., 2008; Lewandowska et al., 2014).”
BackgroundCabré, A., Marinov, I., & Leung, S. W. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2374-3 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
“2010) that includes 4 models as well as a recent study by Bopp et al. (2013) that includes 10 CMIP5 models.”
MethodFu, F., Zhang, Y., Warner, M. E., Feng, Y., Sun, J., & Hutchins, D. A. (2007) · Harmful Algae · doi:10.1016/j.hal.2007.05.006 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
“At the same time, over the next 50–100 years greenhouse warming will increase average sea surface temperatures by as much as 4–5 8C (Bopp et al., 2001; Sarmiento et al., 2002).”
BackgroundFrölicher, T. L., & Joos, F. (2010) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0727-0 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
“Marine ecosystems and their role in the carbon cycle are parametrized in a highly simplified way in the NCAR CSM1.4-carbon in comparison to some more sophisticated representations ( Bopp et al. 2001; Moore et al. 2002; Maier-Reimer et al. 2005; Manizza et al. 2008; Schmittner et al. 2008).”
BackgroundMethodEstimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century
Boyce, D. G., Dowd, M. G., Lewis, M. R., et al. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.01.004 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
“Although there is substantial variability among OGCM projections, 15 of 18 published estimates report declining marine Chl or primary production into the future (median time interval: 100 yr; time interval range: 10–2000 yr; Beaulieu et al., 2013; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002; Cermeno et al., 2008; Cox et a…”
BackgroundCenozoic Planktonic Marine Diatom Diversity and Correlation to Climate Change
Lazarus, D., Barron, J. A., Renaudie, J., Diver, P., & Türke, A. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0084857 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Long-term changes in temperate Australian coastal waters: implications for phytoplankton
THOMPSON, P. A., Baird, M. E., Ingleton, T., et al. (2009) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps08297 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
“…to modelling studies, which predict a 5% decrease in global ocean productivity due to the reduced vertical transfer of nutrients (Cox et al. 2000, Bopp et al. 2001), the present study shows little evidence of increasing vertical stratification, except at PH50m where it was limited to April, May…”
BackgroundCarbon Export in the Ocean: A Biologist's Perspective
Iversen, M. H. (2022) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-035153 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian
Doney, S., & Schimel, D. (2007) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.32.041706.124700 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Vertical distribution and composition of phytoplankton under the influence of an upper mixed layer
Ryabov, A. B., Rudolf, L., & Blasius, B. (2009) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.10.034 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
“As some climate models predict higher water stratification with an increase of temperature (Bopp et al. 2001; Sarmiento et al. 2004), our findings may help to predict and understand future changes in phytoplankton patterns ongoing with global climate change.”
ResultDo marine phytoplankton follow B ergmann's rule sensu lato?
Sommer, U. J., Peter, K. H., Genitsaris, S., & Moustaka-Gouni, M. T. (2016) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/brv.12266 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario
Lehodey, P., Senina, I., Sibert, J., Bopp, L., Calmettes, B., Hampton, J., & Murtugudde, R. (2010) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.04.021 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
“, warming, changes in cloudiness and mixed layer thickness, and increased vertical stratification, very likely will cause significant adjustments in the biology of the oceans (Denman et al., 1996; Cox et al., 2000; Bopp et al., 2001; Boyd and Doney, 2002).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMind the gap: The impact of missing data on the calculation of phytoplankton phenology metrics
Cole, H. S., Henson, S. A., Martin, A. P., & Yool, A. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2012jc008249 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Early Life History and Fisheries Oceanography: New Questions in a Changing World
Institution, W. H. O., Llopiz, J. K., Cowen, R. K., Hauff, M., Ji, R., Munday, P. L., Muhling, B. A., Peck, M. A., Richardson, D., Sogard, S. M., et al. (2014) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2014.84 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., & Orr, J. C.
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2001-03
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 81-99
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W1973095441
- Semantic Scholar
- 25569a9b12bdc21407f3e73f4cc6499d87b6d440
- Cited by
- 514
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 11.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hal.science
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe) (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, ocean primary productivity, ocean stratification, nutrient supply, light efficiency, upwelling, poleward shift, growing season, greenhouse gas increase, Southern Ocean, tropical oceans
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