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Cited by 1Geology and Paleoclimatology ResearchClimate variability and modelsPaleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils

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Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?

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Umbo, Stuart, Lechleitner, Franziska, Opel, Thomas, Modestou, Sevasti, Braun, Tobias, Vaks, Anton, Henderson, Gideon, Scott, Pete, Osintzev, Alexander, Kononov, Alexandr, Adrian, Irina, Dublyansky, Yuri, Giesche, Alena, Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.·2025·Climate of the Past
DOI 10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025

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Abstract

The Miocene provides an excellent climatic analogue for near-future runaway anthropogenic warming, with atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and global average temperatures similar to those projected for the coming century under extreme-emissions scenarios. However, the magnitude of Miocene Arctic warming remains unclear due to the scarcity of reliable proxy data. Here we use stable oxygen isotope and trace element analyses, alongside clumped isotope and fluid inclusion palaeothermometry of speleothems to reconstruct palaeo-environmental conditions near the Siberian Arctic coast during the Tortonian (8.68 ± 0.09 Ma). Stable oxygen isotope records suggest warmer-than-present temperatures. This is supported by temperature estimates based on clumped isotopes and fluid inclusions giving mean annual air temperatures between +6.6 and +11.1 °C, compared with −12.3 °C today. Trace elements records reveal a highly seasonal hydrological environment. Our estimate of > 18 °C of Arctic warming supports the wider consensus of a warmer-than-present Miocene and provides a rare palaeo-analogue for future Arctic amplification under high-emissions scenarios. The reconstructed increase in mean surface temperature far exceeds temperatures projected in fully coupled global climate models, even under extreme-emissions scenarios. Given that climate models have consistently underestimated the extent of recent Arctic amplification, our proxy data suggest Arctic warming may exceed current projections.

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Metadata

Authors
Umbo, S., Lechleitner, F., Opel, T., Modestou, S., Braun, T., Vaks, A., Henderson, G., Scott, P., Osintzev, A., Kononov, A., Adrian, I., Dublyansky, Y., Giesche, A., & Breitenbach, S. F. M.
Affiliations
  • Northumbria University (GB)
  • Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
  • Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
  • Leibniz Association (DE)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Universität Innsbruck (AT)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author
Umbo, Stuart
ORCID
Venue
Climate of the Past
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2025-09-08
Volume
21
Issue
9
Pages
1533-1551
ISSN
  • 1814-9324 (ISSN-L)
  • 1814-9332
DOI
10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025
OpenAlex
W4414073644
Cited by
1
References
10
Citations by year
2025: 1
FWCI
0.43
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Climate of the past (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) (submittedVersion)
  • Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2020-334)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/KE005057/1)
  • Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (P2EZP2_172213)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
Keywords
Late Miocene, Arctic amplification, speleothems, Tortonian, paleothermometry, clumped isotopes, fluid inclusions, stable oxygen isotopes, trace elements, seasonal hydrology, climate change analogue, anthropogenic warming, paleoclimate reconstruction

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