CoChat
Sign Up
PreprintCited by 468Fire effects on ecosystemsClimate variability and modelsHydrology and Drought Analysis

The DOI matches its Crossref record.

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Open access
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Krikken, Folmer, Lewis, Sophie, Leach, Nicholas J., Lehner, Flavio, Saunders, Kate R., van Weele, Michiel, Haustein, Karsten, Li, Sihan, Wallom, David, Sparrow, Sarah, Arrighi, Julie, Singh, Roop P., van Aalst, Maarten K., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Vautard, Robert, Otto, Friederike E. L.·2020·Natural hazards and earth system sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-2020-69

Preprint — published as 10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021

Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically-based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index, long-term observations of heat and drought, and eleven large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor two due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. Finally, we find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the ERA5 reanalysis, and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. The trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes and hence also likely underestimated. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean dipole and Southern Annular Mode. These factors are included in the analysis. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some, but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.5194/nhess-2020-69

Cites

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Australia and Western US extreme wildfire events were directly linked to persistent drought and record-breaking temperatures.

    “Australia and Western US extreme wildfire events, among many others, were directly linked to persistent drought and record‐breaking temperatures (Harris & Lucas, 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020).”

    From Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply (2021) · cites this paper as van Oldenborgh et al., 2020

    The Introduction (page unavailable) says Australia's record warmth and dryness, following two dry years, created conditions conducive to unusually widespread and intense bushfires. Section 5.6 Interpretation (page unavailable) also links the late-2019 drought and high temperatures to increased Australian fire risk. The paper does not establish the claimed link for Western US wildfire events. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 77

  1. Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326-336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. · DOI · Paper page
  2. Agard, J., Schipper, E. L. F., Birkmann, J., Campos, M., Dubeux, C., Nojiri, Y., Olsson, J., Osman-Elasha, B., Pelling, M., Prather, M. J., Rivera-Ferre, M. G., Ruppel, O. C., Sallenger, A., Smith, K. R., and St. Clair, A. L.: AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Annex II Glossary, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2014.
  3. Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., and King, A. D.: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heat waves of January 2014, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S145- S148, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00097.1, 2015. · DOI
  4. Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O. Y. B., Bas- triko, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Bracon- not, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheru, F., Co- zic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., M., D., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.- L., Dupont, E., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Foujols, M.- A., Gardoll, S., Gastinea, G. J. G., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khadre-Traoré, A., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Lev- avasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S. G. M., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rousset, C., Sepul- chre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thieblemont, R., Traoré, A., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation an evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. · DOI
  5. Bryant, R. A., Waters, E., Gibbs, L., Gallagher, H. C., Pattison, P., Lusher, D., MacDougall, C., Harms, L., Block, K., Snow- don, E., Sinnott, V., Ireton, G., Richardson, J., and Forbes, D.: Psychological outcomes following the Victorian Black Sat- urday bushfires, Aust. New Zeal. J. Psych., 48, 634-643, https://doi.org/10.1177/0004867414534476, 2014. · DOI · Paper page
  6. Camia, A. and Amatulli, G.: Weather Factors and Fire Danger in the Mediterranean, in: Earth Observation of Wildland Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems, edited by Chuvieco, Springer, Berllin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01754- 4_6, 2009. · DOI
  7. Ciavarella, A., Christidis, N., Andrews, M., Groenendijk, M., Rostron, J., Elkington, M., Burke, C., Lott, F. C., and Stott, P. A.: Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for prob- abilistic event attribution, Weather Clim. Extrem., 20, 9-32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.003, 2018. · DOI
  8. Clarke, H., Lucas, C., and Smith, P.: Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 931-944, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3480, 2013. · DOI
  9. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Val- ues, Springer Series in Statistics, London, UK, 2001.
  10. Cooley, D., Hunter, B., and Smith, R.: Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, in: chap. 8, Univariate and multivari- ate extremes for the environmental sciences, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 153-180, 2019.
  11. Dimitrakopoulos, A. P., Bemmerzouk, A. M., and Mitsopoulos, I. D.: Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment, Meteorol. Appl., 18, 83-93, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.214, 2011. · DOI
  12. Dowdy, A. J.: Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 221-234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1, 2018. · DOI
  13. Dowdy, A. J. and Pepler, A.: Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2005-2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076654, 2018. · DOI
  14. Dowdy, A. J., Ye, H., Pepler, A., Thatcher, M., Osbrough, S. L., Evans, J. P., Di Virgilio, G., and McCarthy, N.: Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires, Scient. Rep., 9, 10073, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598- 019-46362-x, 2019. · DOI
  15. Eden, J. M., Wolter, K., Otto, F. E. L., and van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipita- tion in Boulder, Colorado, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009, 2016. · DOI
  16. Eden, J. M., Kew, S. F., Bellprat, O., Lenderink, G., Manola, I., Om- rani, H., and van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Extreme precipitation in the Netherlands: An event attribution case study, Weather Clim. Ex- trem., 21, 90-101, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.07.003, 2018. · DOI
  17. Finlay, S. E., Moffat, A., Gazzard, R., Baker, D., and Mur- ray, V.: Health impacts of wildfires, PLoS Curr. Disast., 4, e4f959951cce2c, https://doi.org/10.1371/4f959951cce2c, 2012. · DOI · Paper page
  18. Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Interactions during the 2003 European Summer Heat Wave, J. Climate, 20, 5081-5099, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1, 2007. · DOI
  19. Guillod, B. P., Jones, R. G., Bowery, A., Haustein, K., Massey, N. R., Mitchell, D. M., Otto, F. E. L., Sparrow, S. N., Uhe, P., Wallom, D. C. H., Wilson, S., and Allen, M. R.: weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional cli- mate modelling system, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1849-1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1849-2017, 2017. · DOI
  20. Haikerwal, A., Akram, M., Del Monaco, A., Smith, K., Sim, M. R., Meyer, M., Tonkin, A. M., Abramson, M. J., and Dennekamp, M.: Impact of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Exposure Dur- ing Wildfires on Cardiovascular Health Outcomes, J. Am. Heart Assoc., 4, e001653, https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.114.001653, 2015. · DOI
  21. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global Sur- face Temperature Change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010. · DOI · Paper page
  22. Harris, S. and Lucas, C.: Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017, PLoS ONE, 14, e0222328, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222328, 2019. · DOI · Paper page
  23. Haustein, K., Otto, F. E. L., Venema, V., Jacobs, P., Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Way, R. G., White, B., Subramanian, A., and Schurer, A. P.: A Limited Role for Unforced Internal Variabil- ity in Twentieth-Century Warming, J. Climate, 32, 4893-4917, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0555.1, 2019. · DOI
  24. Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Stefanescu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bin- tanja, R., Bougeault, P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Chris- tensen, J. H., van den Hurk, B., Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kall- berg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda, P., Van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F., Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and Willen, U.: EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Ap- proach in Action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357-1363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1, 2010. · DOI
  25. Hersbach, H., Bell, W., Berrisford, P., Horányi, A. J. M.-S., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., and Dee, D.: Global reanalysis: goodbye ERA-Interim, hello ERA5, ECMWF Newslett., 159, 17-24, https://doi.org/10.21957/vf291hehd7, 2019. · DOI
  26. Hope, P., Wang, G., Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H. H., and Arblaster, J. M.: What caused the recofrd-breaking heat across Aus- tralia in October 2015?, B. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 97, S1-S5, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0142.1, 2016. · DOI
  27. Hope, P., Black, M. T., Lim, E.-P., Dowdy, A., Wang, G., Pepler, A. S., and Fawcett, R. J. B.: On Determining the Impact of Increas- ing Atmospheric CO 2 on the Record Fire Weather In Eastern Australia In February 2017, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, S111- S117, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0135.1, 2019. · DOI
  28. Johnston, F. and Bowman, D.: Bushfire Smoke: An Exemplar of Coupled Human and Natural Systems, Geogr. Res., 52, 45-54, https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-5871.12028, 2014. · DOI
  29. Kala, J., De Kauwe, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Medlyn, B. E., Wang, Y.-P., Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E.: Impact of the representation of stomatal conductance on model projections of heatwave intensity, Sci. Rep., 6, 23418, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23418, 2016. · DOI
  30. Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lind- say, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth Sys- tem Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community re- source for studying climate change in the presence of inter- nal climate variability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1333-1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1, 2015. · DOI
  31. Kew, S. F., Philip, S. Y., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E., Vautard, R., and van der Schrier, G.: The exceptional summer heatwave in Southern Europe 2017, Bu. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, S2-S5, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1, 2019. · DOI · Paper page
  32. King, A. D., Black, M. T., Karoly, D. J., and Donat, M. G.: Incraesed likelihood of Brisbane, Australia, G20 heat event due to anthro- pogenic climate change, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S141-S144, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00098. · DOI
  33. 2015a. · DOI
  34. King, A. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Karoly, D. J., Lewis, S. C., and Cullen, H.: Attribution of the record high Cen- tral England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 054002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/10/5/054002, 2015b. · DOI
  35. King, A. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Karoly, D. J.: Cli- mate Change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, S113-S117, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0164.1, 2016. · DOI
  36. Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., and Gillett, N. P.: Attri- bution of extreme events in Arctic sea ice extent, J. Climate, 30, 553-571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1, 2017. · DOI
  37. Koplitz, S. N., Mickley, L. J., Marlier, M. E., Buonocore, J. J., Kim, P. S., Liu, T., Sulprizio, M. P., DeFries, R. S., Jacob, D. J., Schwartz, J., Pongsiri, M., and Myers, S. S.: Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September- October 2015: demonstration of a new framework for informing fire management strategies to reduce downwind smoke exposure, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 094023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/11/9/094023, 2016. · DOI
  38. Krikken, F., Lehner, F., Haustein, K., Drobyshev, I., and van Old- enborgh, G. J.: Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Dis- cuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-206, in re- view, 2019. · DOI
  39. Lewis, S., Blake, S., Trewin, B., Black, M., Dowdy, A., Perkins- Kirkpatrick, S., King, A., and Sharples, J.: Deconstructing factors contributing to the 2018 fire weather in Queens- land, Australia, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S115-S122, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0144.1, 2020. · DOI
  40. Lewis, S. C. and Karoly, D. J.: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3705-3709, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50673, 2013. · DOI
  41. Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Ko- rnblueh, L., Takano, Y., Kröger, J., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Rad- datz, T., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: The Max Planck In- stitute grand ensemble-enabling the exploration of climate sys- tem variability, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 2050-2069, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001639, 2019. · DOI
  42. Martins, E. S. P. R., Coelho, C. A. S., Haarsma, R. J., Otto, F. E. L., King, A. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Kew, S. F., Philip, S. Y., Vasconselos Junior, F. C., and Cullen, H.: A multimethod attribu- tion analysis of the prolonged northeast Brazil hydrometeorolog- ical drought (2012-16), Bu. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, S65-S69, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0102.1, 2018. · DOI
  43. Mathur, R. and AchutaRao, K.: A modelling exploration of the sen- sitivity of the India's climate to irrigation, Clim. Dynam., 54, 1851-1872, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05090-8, 2019. · DOI
  44. Miller, C., Plucinski, M., Sullivan, A., Stephenson, A., Huston, C., Charman, K., Prakash, M., and Dunstall, S.: Electrically caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia are over-represented when fire danger is elevated, Landsc. Urban Plan., 167, 267-274, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.06.016, 2017. · DOI
  45. Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., van Heerwaarden, C. C., and Vilà- Guerau de Arellano, J.: Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation, Nat. Geosci., 7, 345-349, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2141, 2014. · DOI · Paper page
  46. Mitchell, J. W.: Power line failures and catastrophic wildfires un- der extreme weather conditions, Eng. Fail. Anal., 35, 726-735, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2013.07.006, 2013. · DOI
  47. Morgan, G., Sheppeard, V., Khalaj, B., Ayyar, A., Lincoln, D., Jalaludin, B., Beard, J., Corbett, S., and Lumley, T.: Ef- fects of Bushfire Smoke on Daily Mortality and Hospital Admissions in Sydney, Australia, Epidemiology, 21, 47-55, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181c15d5a, 2010. · DOI
  48. Noble, I. R., Gill, A. M., and Bary, G. A. V.: McArthur's fire- danger meters expressed as equations, Aust. J. Ecol., 5, 201-203, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.1980.tb01243.x, 1980. · DOI
  49. Otto, F. E. L., van der Wiel, K., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., Uhe, P., and Cullen, H.: Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern Eng- land/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond -a real- time event attribution revisited, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9663, 2018a. · DOI
  50. Otto, F. E. L., Wolski, P., Lehner, F., Tebaldi, C., van Olden- borgh, G. J., Hogesteeger, S., Singh, R., Holden, P., Fuckar, N. S., Odoulami, R., and New, M.: Anthropogenic influ- ence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015-2017, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 124010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/aae9f9, 2018b. · DOI
  51. Pasquale, C.: Are your data really Pareto distributed?, Physica A, 392, 5947-5962, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2013.07.061, 2013. · DOI
  52. Pepler, A., Coutts-Smith, A., and Timbal, B.: The role of East Coast Lows on rainfall patterns and inter-annual variability across the East Coast of Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1011-1021, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3741, 2014. · DOI
  53. Perkins, S. E. and Gibson, P. B.: Increased risk of the 2014 Aus- tralian May heatwave due to anthrpogenic activity, B. Am. Mete- orol. Soc., 96, S154-S157, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15- 00074.1, 2015. · DOI
  54. Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., Hauser, M., Guillod, B. P., Teuling, A. J., Whan, K., Uhe, P., and v. Oldenborgh, G. J.: West- ern US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2587-2601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3759-x, 2018a. · DOI
  55. Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Aalbers, E., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., Habets, F., and Singh, R.: Validation of a rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipita- tion in France to climate change, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1881- 1898, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0074.1, 2018b. · DOI
  56. Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., O'Keefe, S., Haustein, K., King, A. D., Zegeye, A., Eshetu, Z., Hailemariam, K., Singh, R. K., Jjemba, E., Funk, C., and Cullen, H.: Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015, J. Climate, 31, 2465-2486, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17- 0274.1, 2018c. · DOI · Paper page
  57. Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Vau- tard, R., van der Wiel, K., King, A. D., Lott, F. C., Arrighi, J., Singh, R. P., and van Aalst, M. K.: A protocol for probabilis- tic extreme event attribution analyses, Adv. Stat. Climatol. Me- teorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6- 177-2020, 2020. · DOI · Paper page
  58. Price, O. F. and Bradstock, R. A.: The efficacy of fuel treat- ment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia, J. Environ. Manage., 113, 146-157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.08.041, 2012. · DOI
  59. Reid, C. E., Brauer, M., Johnston, F. H., Jerrett, M., Balmes, J. R., and Elliott, C. T.: Critical Review of Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure, Environ. Health Perspect., 124, 1334-1343, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409277, 2016. · DOI · Paper page
  60. Ribes, A., Thao, S., and Cattiaux, J.: Describing the Re- lationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach, J. Climate, 33, 6297-6314, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0217.1, 2020. · DOI
  61. Rodgers, K. B., Lin, J., and Frölicher, T. L.: Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model, Biogeosciences, 12, 3301-3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015, 2015. · DOI
  62. Sanderson, B. M. and Fisher, R. A.: A fiery wake-up call for climate science, Nat. Clim. Change, 54, 175-177, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0707-2, 2020. · DOI
  63. Shabbar, A., Skinner, W., and Flannigan, M. D.: Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 50, 785-799, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2547.1, 2011. · DOI
  64. Shaposhnikov, D., Revich, B., Bellander, T., Bedada, G. B., Bottai, M., Kharkova, T., Kvasha, E., Lezina, E., Lind, T., Semutnikova, E., and Pershagen, G.: Mortality related to air pollution with the moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010, Epidemiology, 25, 359- 364, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000090, 2014. · DOI
  65. Siswanto, van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Schrier, G., Lenderink, G., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Trends in high-daily precipita- tion events in Jakarta and the flooding of January 2014, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S131-S135, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS- D-15-00128.1, 2015. · DOI
  66. Sun, L., Alexander, M., and Deser, C.: Evolution of the global cou- pled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss during 1990-2090 and its contribution to climate change, J. Climate, 31, 7823- 7843, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0134.1, 2018. · DOI
  67. Tebaldi, C. and Arblaster, J. M.: Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Cli- matic Change, 122, 459-471, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 013-1032-9, 2014. · DOI · Paper page
  68. Thiery, W., Davin, E. L., Lawrence, D. M., Hirsch, A. L., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Present-day irrigation miti- gates heat extremes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 1403-1422, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025740, 2017. · DOI · Paper page
  69. Uhe, P., Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., Shah, K., Kimutai, J., Mwangi, E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., Jjemba, E., Cullen, H., and Otto, F. E. L.: Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought, Int. J. Climatol., 38, e554-e568, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5389, 2018. · DOI · Paper page
  70. van der Wiel, K., Kapnick, S. B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Whan, K., Philip, S. Y., Vecchi, G. A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., and Cullen, H.: Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change, Hy- drol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess- 21-897-2017, 2017. · DOI
  71. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Haarsma, R., De Vries, H., and Allen, M. R.: Cold Extremes in North America vs. Mild Weather in Europe: The Winter of 2013-14 in the Context of a Warming World, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 707-714, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00036.1, 2015. · DOI
  72. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., and Achuta Rao, K.: The heavy precipitation event of Decem- ber 2015 in Chennai, India, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, S87-S91, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0129.1, 2016. · DOI
  73. van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G. A., and Cullen, H.: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hur- ricane Harvey, August 2017, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2, 2017. · DOI
  74. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Weele, M., Uhe, P., Otto, F. E. L., Singh, R. K., Pai, I., Cullen, H., and AchutaRao, K.: Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 365-381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, 2018. · DOI · Paper page
  75. Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Thao, S., Dubuisson, B., Lenderink, G., Ribes, A., Soubeyroux, J. M., Yiou, P., and Planton, S.: Extreme fall 2014 precipitations in the Cévennes mountain range, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S56-S60, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00088.1, 2015. · DOI
  76. Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., and Palmer, T.: Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth cen- tury: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 917- 926, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2976, 2017. · DOI
  77. Whittaker, J., Taylor, M., and Bearman, C.: Why don't bushfire warnings work as intended? Responses to of- ficial warnings during bushfires in New South Wales, Australia, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 45, 101476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101476, 2020. · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

  • Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

    Robinne, F., Hallema, D. W., Bladon, K. D., Flannigan, M. D., Boisramé, G., Bréthaut, C. M., Doerr, S. H., Di Baldassarre, G., Gallagher, L. A., Hohner, A. K., et al. (2021) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.14086 · Cited by 149

    “Australia and Western US extreme wildfire events, among many others, were directly linked to persistent drought and record-breaking temperatures (Harris & Lucas, 2019; van Oldenborgh et al., 2020).”
    Background

Metadata

Authors
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., van Weele, M., Haustein, K., Li, S., Wallom, D., Sparrow, S., Arrighi, J., Singh, R. P., van Aalst, M. K., Philip, S. Y., Vautard, R., & Otto, F. E. L.
Affiliations
  • Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL)
  • UNSW Canberra (AU)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Delft University of Technology (NL)
  • Climate Centre (NL)
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR)
Corresponding author
  • van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan
  • Lewis, Sophie
  • Leach, Nicholas J.
  • Lehner, Flavio
  • Haustein, Karsten
  • Li, Sihan
  • Wallom, David
  • Sparrow, Sarah
  • Arrighi, Julie
  • van Aalst, Maarten K.
ORCID
Venue
Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2020-03-11
Volume
21
Issue
3
Pages
941-960
ISSN
1561-8633 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.5194/nhess-2020-69
OpenAlex
W3012174158
Cited by
468
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 29 · 2025: 64 · 2024: 79 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 89 · 2020: 21
FWCI
36.38
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Natural hazards and earth system sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Twente Research Information (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
  • Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • University of Twente Research Information (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy (IA 1947282)
  • Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (PZ00P2_174128)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Keywords
bushfire risk, anthropogenic climate change attribution, fire weather index, extreme heat, drought, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode, climate model bias, south-eastern Australia, fire season

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review