A major event has a major cause: Evidence for the role of heuristics in reasoning about conspiracy theories

J. Leman, Patrick; Cinnirella, Marco

doi:10.53841/bpsspr.2007.9.2.18

Cited by 142Misinformation and Its ImpactsDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsParanormal Experiences and Beliefs

A major event has a major cause: Evidence for the role of heuristics in reasoning about conspiracy theories

J. Leman, Patrick, Cinnirella, Marco·2007·Social Psychological Review

DOI 10.53841/bpsspr.2007.9.2.18

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Abstract

Sixty-four participants were asked to read one of four variations on a vignette that reported the assassination or attempted assassination of a hypothetical President and then to rate the likelihood that each of eight statements relating to the vignettes was accurate. Participants were more likely to endorse a conspiracy theory to account for events when the consequences were major (the President dies) rather than comparatively minor (the President survives). Levels of belief in real-world conspiracy theories did not relate to this inference-making process even though participants whose level of belief in conspiracy theories was high were more likely to doubt the veracity of the reported details of the event.

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Psychologia myślenia spiskowego
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Background
Why We Doubt
Pinillos, N. Á. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198871965.001.0001 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Analytic Thinking Predicts Vaccine Endorsement: Linking Cognitive Style and Affective Orientation Toward Childhood Vaccination
Anderson, D. (2016) · doi:10.15760/honors.220 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
For the Greater Good? The Devastating Ripple Effects of the Lockdown MeasuresPreprint
Schippers, M. C. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3612622 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The Psychology of Pandemic Conspiracy Theories
Imhoff, R. (2023) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003330769-4 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
How Belief in Conspiracy Theories Addresses Some Basic Human Needs
Wheeler, E. A. (2020) · Identity in a changing world · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-38270-4_11 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Irrationality
Sullivan‐Bissett, E. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009641883 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Misinformation about COVID-19: Evidence for Differential Latent Profiles and a Strong Association with Trust in SciencePreprint
Agley, J. D., & Xiao, Y. (2020) · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-35919/v2 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs
Rose, C. (2017) · doi:10.26686/wgtn.17060408 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Conspiracy Beliefs and Monothematic Delusions: A Case for De-pathologizing
Ichino, A., & Sullivan‐Bissett, E. (2024) · Erkenntnis · doi:10.1007/s10670-024-00881-w · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“…is the proportionality bias , according to which ‘when big things happen, we look for big causes’ (Brotherton 2015: 211) – where the causes that we tend to see as ‘big’ are those involving the actions of intentional and powerful groups of agents (Ebel-Lam et al., 2010; Leman & Cinnirella, 2007).”
The Appraisal Model of Conspiracy Theories (AMCT): Applying Appraisal Theories to Understand Emotional and Behavioral Reactions to Conspiracy Theories
Pummerer, L., Gkinopoulos, T., Douglas, K. M., Jolley, D., & Sassenberg, K. (2024) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2024.2442906 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“…(i.e., evil intentions of the American government against American people) and Princess Diana (i.e., evil intentions of the British government against the British people) in the same scale (e.g., Douglas & Sutton, 2011; Leman & Cinnirella, 2007; Lewandowsky et al., 2015; Pummerer et al., 2023).”
Approaching differential diagnosis and decisional capacity assessment in the context of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: A narrative review and clinical discussion
Serdenes, R., Arana, F., Karasin, J., Kontos, N. J., & Musselman, M. A. (2023) · General Hospital Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2023.04.008 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Believing badly ain’t so bad
Sullivan‐Bissett, E. (2022) · Philosophical Psychology · doi:10.1080/09515089.2022.2077717 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“…the “proportionality bias” according to which “when big things happen, we look for big causes” (Brotherton, 2015, p. 211) – where the causes that we tend to see as “big” are typically those involving the actions of intentional and powerful agents (Ebel-Lam et al., 2010; Leman & Cinnirella, 2007).”
Background
Believing in Hidden Plots is Associated with Decreased Behavioral Trust: Conspiracy Belief as Greater Sensitivity to Social Threat or Insensitivity Towards its Absence?Preprint
Meuer, M., & Imhoff, R. (2020) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.31234/osf.io/74ugt · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The psychology of conspiracy mentality
Imhoff, R. (2025) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/bs.aesp.2025.10.002 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A Dataset of Social-Psychological and Emotional Reactions During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across Four European Countries
Abadi, D., Arnaldo, I., & Fischer, A. (2023) · Journal of Open Psychology Data · doi:10.5334/jopd.86 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Suspicion and Evidence
Pelkmans, M. (2024) · Social Anthropology · doi:10.3167/saas.2024.022002 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
The Dynamics of Misinformation Sharing: The Mediated Role of News-Finds-Me Perception and the Moderated Role of Partisan Social Identity
Yoo, J., Johnson, T. J., & Lacasa-Mas, I. (2024) · Mass Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/15205436.2024.2401842 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
How do beliefs in free will and determinism correlate with beliefs in conspiracy, paranormal, and pseudoscience beliefs?
Alper, S., Konukoğlu, K., Atalay, E. D., Düzgün, A., & Yılmaz, O. (2024) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2024.112765 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Clarifying the relationship between randomness dismissal and conspiracist ideation: A preregistered replication and meta-analysis
Sternisko, A., Delouvée, S., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2022.104357 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“(Leman & Cinnirella, 2007) Participants read a fictitious and ambiguous scenario about the assassination of a president.”
Crenças em Teorias da Conspiração: uma aproximação desde a Psicologia Social
Rezende, A. T., Gouveia, V. V., & Moizéis, H. B. C. (2021) · Interação em Psicologia · doi:10.5380/riep.v25i1.61173 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Verschwörungstheorien im digitalen Raum
Imhoff, R. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-66608-1_16 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Working memory and need for cognition influence beliefs in conspiracy theories
Bliznashki, S. (2024) · Journal of Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1080/20445911.2024.2335108 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Another line of research concentrates more on the cognitive domain and speci ﬁ es propensity towards certain cognitive biases as a viable predictor for conspi-racy theory beliefs, namely representativeness heuristic (Leman & Cinnirella, 2007), and conjunction fallacy (Brotherton & French, 2014).”
Background
Evaluación psicométrica de una escala de creencias conspirativas para población peruana
Pomar, F. L. D., & Lira, B. (2022) · Persona · doi:10.26439/persona2022.n025(1).5870 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Las teorías conspirativas reducen la frustración experimentada a la hora de entender causas complejas (Ellis, 2020; Douglas et al., 2017; Leman & Cinnirella, 2007; Van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017) al permitir un cierre cognitivo (Marchlewska et al., 2018), al mismo tiempo que refuerza un sesgo contra…”
Background
Existence of Differential Belief Profiles of COVID-19 Narratives: The Role of Trust in SciencePreprint
Agley, J. D., & Xiao, Y. (2020) · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-35919/v1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Connecting Conspiracy Beliefs and Experiences of Social Exclusion
Imhoff, R. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009408165.014 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Conspiracy Theories About Local Political Issues
Douglas, K. M., Green, R., Toribio‐Flórez, D., Biddlestone, M., de Gourville, D., & Rowden, C. (2025) · Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/casp.70198 · Cited by 1 · see citing works

Authors: J. Leman, P., & Cinnirella, M.
ORCID: Cinnirella, Marco
Venue: Social Psychological Review
Publisher: British Psychological Society
Published: 2007-10
Volume: 9
Issue: 2
Pages: 18-28
ISSN: 1369-7862 (ISSN-L)
2396-9601
DOI: 10.53841/bpsspr.2007.9.2.18
OpenAlex: W4315749276
Cited by: 138
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 1.13
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Social Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
Keywords: conspiracy theories, heuristics, causal reasoning, assassination, conspiracy beliefs, causal inference

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A major event has a major cause: Evidence for the role of heuristics in reasoning about conspiracy theories

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