Uncertainty in Treatment Rankings: Reanalysis of Network Meta-analyses of Randomized Trials
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ranking of interventions is one of the most appealing elements of network meta-analysis. There is, however, little evidence about the reliability of these rankings. PURPOSE: To empirically evaluate the extent of uncertainty in intervention rankings from network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Two previous systematic reviews that involved searches of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, and Embase up to July 2012 for articles that included networks of at least 3 interventions. STUDY SELECTION: 58 network meta-analyses involving 1308 randomized trials and 404 interventions with available aggregated outcome data. DATA ANALYSIS: Each network was analyzed with a Bayesian approach. For each intervention, the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) and its 95% credible interval (95% CrI) were estimated. Through use of the SUCRA values, the interventions were then rank-ordered between 0% (worst) and 100% (best). DATA SYNTHESIS: The median width of the 95% CrIs of the SUCRA was 65% (first to third quartile, 38% to 80%). In 28% of networks, there was a 50% or greater probability that the best-ranked treatment was actually not the best. No evidence showed a difference between the best-ranked intervention and the second and third best-ranked interventions in 90% and 71% of comparisons, respectively. In 39 networks with 6 or more interventions, the median probability that 1 of the top 2 interventions was among the bottom 2 was 35% (first to third quartile, 14% to 59%). LIMITATION: This analysis did not consider such factors as the risk of bias within trials or small-study effects that may affect the reliability of rankings. CONCLUSION: Treatment rankings derived from network meta-analyses have a substantial degree of imprecision. Authors and readers should interpret such rankings with great caution. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Cochrane France.
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SUCRA curves should be interpreted with caution due to the small number of studies and children included in each NMA and the high uncertainty around SUCRA values.
“However, the results of our SUCRA curves should be interpreted with caution, especially due to the small number of studies and children included in each NMA, which is also reflected in the high uncertainty around the SUCRA values (figure 2).31”
Evidence suggests that ranking probabilities for a treatment of being the best may be biased towards treatments with the smallest number of studies, which may have influenced SUCRA results.
“Evidence suggests that ranking probabilities for a treatment of being the best may be biased towards the treatments with the smallest number of studies, which may have influenced our SUCRA results.31 45”
The ranking analysis suggests that cognitive behavioural therapy following the French and Morrison protocol, currently the most widely adopted intervention, may not be the best candidate treatment.
“it suggests that CBT-F, which currently represents the most widely adopted intervention, may not be the best candidate”
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The treatment modalities of masticatory muscle pain a network meta-analysis
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- Authors
- Trinquart, L., Attiche, N., Bafeta, A., Porcher, R., & Ravaud, P.
- Affiliations
- Inserm (FR)
- From INSERM U1153, Université Paris Descartes–Sorbonne Paris Cité, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Hôtel-Dieu, Centre d'Epidémiologie Clinique, and Cochrane France, Paris, France, and Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, New York.
- Venue
- Annals of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American College of Physicians
- Published
- 2016-05-17
- Volume
- 164
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 666-673
- ISSN
- 0003-4819 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-3704
- OpenAlex
- W2339783374
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 99
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 28 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 4
- FWCI
- 13.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annals of Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Delphi Technique in Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Keywords
- network meta-analysis, treatment ranking, surface under the cumulative ranking curve, Bayesian ranking
- MeSH terms
- Network Meta-Analysis as Topic, Bayes Theorem, Humans, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
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