The Age-Related Eye Disease Study Severity Scale for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: AREDS Report No. 17
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop a fundus photographic severity scale for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: In the Age-Related Eye Disease Study, stereoscopic color fundus photographs were taken at baseline, at the 2-year follow-up visit, and annually thereafter. Photographs were graded for drusen characteristics (size, type, area), pigmentary abnormalities (increased pigment, depigmentation, geographic atrophy), and presence of abnormalities characteristic of neovascular AMD (retinal pigment epithelial detachment, serous or hemorrhagic sensory retinal detachment, subretinal or sub-retinal pigment epithelial hemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue). Advanced AMD was defined as presence of 1 or more neovascular AMD abnormalities, photocoagulation for AMD, or geographic atrophy involving the center of the macula. We explored associations among right eyes of 3212 participants between severity of drusen characteristics and pigmentary abnormalities at baseline and development of advanced AMD within 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A 9-step severity scale that combines a 6-step drusen area scale with a 5-step pigmentary abnormality scale was developed, on which the 5-year risk of advanced AMD increased progressively from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9. Among the 334 eyes that had at least a 3-step progression on the scale between the baseline and 5-year visits, almost half showed stepwise progression through intervening severity levels at intervening visits. Replicate gradings showed agreement within 1 step on the scale in 87% of eyes. CONCLUSIONS: The scale provides convenient risk categories and has acceptable reproducibility. Progression along it may prove to be useful as a surrogate for progression to advanced AMD.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
AREDS developed a 9-step fundus photographic severity scale for AMD by combining a 6-step drusen area scale with a 5-step pigmentary abnormality scale, on which 5-year risk of advanced AMD rose from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9. The scale showed acceptable reproducibility, and progression along it may prove useful as a surrogate for progression to advanced AMD.
Key findings
- The 9-step scale combined drusen area and pigmentary abnormalities; 5-year risk of advanced AMD increased progressively from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9.
- Among 334 eyes with at least a 3-step progression between baseline and 5-year visits, 47% showed stepwise progression through intervening severity levels, 31% were abrupt, and the remainder had reversals.
- Replicate gradings showed complete agreement in 63.4% of eyes, agreement within 1 step in 86.6%, and agreement within 2 steps in 93.6%; unweighted κ was 0.58 and weighted κ was 0.73.
- Presence of neovascular AMD in one eye increased the risk of its development in the fellow eye by a factor ranging from 2 for eyes in step 8 to about 20 for eyes in steps 1 and 2.
Methods
- AREDS was a multicenter prospective cohort study; 4757 people aged 55 to 80 years were enrolled between 1992 and 1998. Stereoscopic color fundus photographs were taken at baseline, at the 2-year visit, and annually thereafter and graded for drusen characteristics, pigmentary abnormalities, and neovascular AMD abnormalities.
- Analyses explored associations among right eyes of 3212 participants without advanced AMD in either eye at baseline and development of advanced AMD within 5 years, using cross-tabulations and tree-structured models; scale performance was also examined in left eyes and in the eye with nonadvanced AMD of participants who had advanced AMD in one eye at baseline.
- Reproducibility was assessed by applying the scale to duplicate gradings carried out periodically as part of quality control (total number of eyes, 1225).
Limitations
- The paper states that many subgroups combined to produce the scale steps were small and outcome rates were low, so biologic or grading variability could have had large effects.
- The paper states that participants were mostly non-Hispanic whites, and age, sex, race, and other risk factors were not considered; some predictive power may have been lost by excluding drusen size and/or predominance of soft indistinct drusen.
- Evident from the text: scale development was based primarily on right eyes, and although left-eye results were similar, basing the grouping on left eyes could have led to several differences; the CGA fellow-eye analysis included only 57 participants, and treatment-effect analyses had few events through step 4.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 24 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Preliminary analyses showed that development of CGA was more frequent in eyes with noncentral GA at baseline than in eyes with depigmentation not meeting the GA definition.
“Preliminary analyses showed that development of CGA was more frequent in these eyes than in eyes with depigmentation not meeting the GA definition”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Presence of neovascular AMD in one eye of an individual increases the risk of its development in the fellow eye by a factor that ranges from 2 for eyes in step 8 to about 20 for eyes in steps 1 and 2, as compared with an eye in an individual free of neovascular AMD in both eyes.
“presence of neovascular AMD in one eye of an individual increases the risk of its development in the fellow eye by a factor that ranges from 2 for eyes in step 8 to about 20 for eyes in steps 1 and 2, as compared with an eye in an individual free of neovascular AMD in both eyes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The weighted kappa statistic for reproducibility of the scale, giving 75% credit for 1-step disagreement, was 0.73 (SE 0.013).
“An unweighted statistic (SE) was 0.58 (0.015), and weighted to give 75% credit for 1-step disagreement was 0.73 (0.013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A 9-step severity scale that combines a 6-step drusen area scale with a 5-step pigmentary abnormality scale was developed.
“A 9-step severity scale that combines a 6-step drusen area scale with a 5-step pigmentary abnormality scale was developed”
- Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
“we developed a 9-step severity scale that combines a 6-step drusen area scale with a 5-step pigmentary abnormality scale”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Occurrence of increased pigment and depigmentation in one or more of the 4 outer subfields only might frequently represent a disorder other than AMD.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The diameter of the optic disc is 1500 µm.
- Rests on an assumption: The 4 groups used to categorize participants at entry into AREDS were not based on an analysis of outcome data.
- Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
- Findingown data
Among the remaining 381 eyes in column 1, which had any degree of increased pigmentation but no depigmentation, 67 (18%) developed advanced AMD.
“Among the remaining 381 eyes in column 1, which had any degree of increased pigmentation but no depigmentation, 67 (18%) developed advanced AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
Only 35 of the 3212 right eyes initially used in scale building had noncentral GA at baseline.
“Only 35 of the 3212 right eyes initially used in scale building had noncentral GA at baseline.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among 1249 eyes with only small drusen, 1096 (88%) had drusen area less than C-1.
“while among 1249 eyes with only small drusen, 1096 (88%) had area less than C-1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The increase in risk of advanced AMD with increasing drusen size is less consistent.
“The increase in risk of advanced AMD with increasing drusen size is less consistent.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Baseline and 5-year follow-up gradings were available for the right eyes of 3212 participants without advanced AMD in either eye at baseline.
“As of May 2001, baseline and 5-year follow-up gradings were available for the right eyes of 3212 participants without advanced AMD in either eye at baseline”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was complete agreement in 63.4% of eyes on replicate grading of the scale.
“There was complete agreement in 63.4% of eyes, agreement within 1 step in 86.6%, and agreement within 2 steps in 93.6%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The unweighted kappa statistic for reproducibility of the scale was 0.58 (SE 0.015).
“An unweighted statistic (SE) was 0.58 (0.015), and weighted to give 75% credit for 1-step disagreement was 0.73 (0.013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
On the 9-step severity scale, the 5-year risk of advanced AMD increased progressively from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9.
“the 5-year risk of advanced AMD increased progressively from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9”
- Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
“Five-year rates of this outcome range from less than 1% in step 1 to about 50% in step 9 of the scale”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
- Findingown data
Preliminary analyses showed that development of CGA was as frequent in eyes with noncentral GA graded questionable as in those placed in a higher category.
“and was as frequent in eyes with noncentral GA graded questionable (probable) as in those placed in a higher category.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among the 334 eyes that had at least a 3-step progression on the scale between baseline and 5-year visits, almost half showed stepwise progression through intervening severity levels at intervening visits.
“Among the 334 eyes that had at least a 3-step progression on the scale between the baseline and 5-year visits, almost half showed stepwise progression through intervening”
- Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
“Among 334 eyes in which progression of 3 or more steps on the scale occurred between the baseline and 5-year visits, almost half showed stepwise progression through intervening severity levels at intervening visits”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
- Findingown data
Drusen area appeared to be the stronger and more consistent risk factor than drusen size.
“Because drusen area appeared to be the stronger and more consistent risk factor and because the drusen size grade indicates only the largest druse present, whereas drusen area provides a measure of total drusen, subsequent development of the severity scale focused on drusen area rather than size.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
This rate appeared to change little with increasing amounts of pigment except for an increase in the 2 highest categories.
“This rate appeared to change little with increasing amounts of pigment except for an increase in the 2 highest categories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Progression was abrupt in 31% of the 334 eyes that progressed by 3 or more steps between baseline and 5-year visits.
“Progression was “abrupt” in 31% of the 334 eyes”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among 467 eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater, in 410 (88%) soft indistinct drusen were present to some degree.
“and in 410 (88%) they were present to some degree.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among 401 eyes with very large drusen, 309 (77%) had drusen area of 0.5 standard disc area (DA) or greater.
“Among 401 eyes with very large drusen, 309 (77%) had drusen area of 0.5 standard disc area (DA) or greater”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Of the 3212 eyes, 2412 (75%) had no pigmentary abnormalities.
“Of the 3212 eyes, 2412 (75%) had no pigmentary abnormalities (column 1, row 1)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Agreement within 2 steps on the scale was 93.6%.
“There was complete agreement in 63.4% of eyes, agreement within 1 step in 86.6%, and agreement within 2 steps in 93.6%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Progression was stepwise in 47% of the 334 eyes that progressed by 3 or more steps between baseline and 5-year visits.
“and was “stepwise” in 47%”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Among 467 eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater, in 211 (45%) soft indistinct drusen were predominant in all 3 zones.
“Among 467 eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater, in 211 (45%) soft indistinct drusen were predominant in all 3 zones”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The rates shown in the column totals show a steady increase from 8.5% when depigmentation was questionable to about 50% when depigmentation was 0.5 DA or greater or noncentral GA was present.
“the rates shown in the column totals show a steady increase from 8.5% when depigmentation was questionable to about 50% when depigmentation was 0.5 DA or greater or noncentral GA was present.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Replicate gradings showed agreement within 1 step on the scale in 86.6% of eyes.
“Replicate gradings showed agreement within 1 step on the scale in 87% of eyes.”
- Also stated in: § REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE SCALE · plain
“There was complete agreement in 63.4% of eyes, agreement within 1 step in 86.6%, and agreement within 2 steps in 93.6%.”
- Also stated in: § COMMENT · plain
“Complete agreement, 63.4%; agreement within 1 step, 86.6%; agreement within 2 steps, 93.6%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE SCALE · plain
- Findingcitation
Presence of large (or very large) drusen in both eyes vs only one eye of a participant is a useful clinical indicator of risk of progression to advanced AMD in at least one eye of the participant: 27% if there are large drusen in both eyes (or noncentral GA in at least one eye) vs 6% for participants with large drusen in only one eye (or with extensive intermediate drusen in one or both eyes).
“Presence of large (or very large) drusen in both eyes vs only one eye of a participant is also a useful clinical indicator of risk of progression to advanced AMD in at least one eye of the participant: 27% if there are large drusen in both eyes (or noncentral GA in at least one eye) vs 6% for participants with large drusen in only one eye (or with extensive intermediate drusen in one or both eyes)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2]
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- Findingown data
On the 9-step severity scale, the 5-year risk of advanced age-related macular degeneration increases from less than 1% to about 50%.
“on which the 5-year risk of advanced AMD increases from less than 1% to about 50%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Corresponding rates for the AREDS scale were from about 10% in steps 1 and 2 to 45% to 55% in steps 6, 7, and 8.
“Corresponding rates for the AREDS scale were from about 10% in steps 1 and 2 to 45% to 55% in steps 6, 7, and 8 (Table 10).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In participants with neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the fellow eye at baseline, the 5-year rate of advanced AMD in the eye at risk was 37.9% overall.
“Total † 130 61 (46.9) 413 145 (35.1) 124 37 (29.8)543 206 (37.9)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The scale is based primarily on the 5-year risk of progression to advanced AMD in individual eyes of patients free of advanced AMD in both eyes at baseline.
“The scale is based primarily on the 5-year risk of progression to advanced AMD in individual eyes of patients free of advanced AMD in both eyes at baseline.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A 9-step severity scale for age-related macular degeneration was developed using stereoscopic color photographs collected during 5 years of follow-up in more than 3000 AREDS participants.
“In conclusion, stereoscopic color photographs collected during 5 years of follow-up in more than 3000 AREDS participants have been used to develop a 9-step severity scale”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Five-year rates of neovascular age-related macular degeneration increase across the steps of the AREDS severity scale in persons with and without neovascular AMD in one eye at baseline.
“the parallel increases across the steps of the scale in persons with and without neovascular AMD in one eye at baseline (Figure 4)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
Increased pigment and depigmentation were strong risk factors in all the studies, with rates in the highest categories for each ranging from 3-fold to more than 10-fold higher than those for eyes in which the abnormalities were absent.
“Increased pigment and depigmentation were strong risk factors in all the studies, with rates in the highest categories for each ranging from 3-fold to more than 10fold higher than those for eyes in which the abnormalities were absent.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [10]
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- Findingown data
Corresponding 5-year rates for the AREDS scale, when progression to noncentral GA is included in the outcome, ranged from 0.4% in step 1 to 47% in step 7 and 67% in step 8.
“Corresponding 5-year rates for the AREDS scale (when progression to noncentral GA is included in the outcome, to be consistent with these other studies) ranged from 0.4% in step 1 to 47% in step 7 and 67% in step 8 (Table 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
In an earlier study of 127 fellow eyes of participants with extrafoveal choroidal neovascularization, 5-year rates of neovascular AMD ranged from 10% for eyes with neither large drusen nor pigmentary abnormalities to 58% for eyes with both.
“In an earlier study of 127 fellow eyes of participants with extrafoveal choroidal neovascularization, 5-year rates of neovascular AMD ranged from 10% for eyes with neither large drusen nor pigmentary abnormalities to 58% for eyes with both.13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13]
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- Interpretationown data
The scale has acceptable reproducibility.
“The scale provides convenient risk categories and has acceptable reproducibility.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Subsequent development of the severity scale focused on drusen area rather than size.
“subsequent development of the severity scale focused on drusen area rather than size.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Further scale building used only drusen area.
“In view of the complexity that would be added to the scale by inclusion of a second drusen characteristic, and the limited additional predictive power to be gained, further scale building used only drusen area.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The 9-step severity scale has acceptable reproducibility.
“The scale provides convenient risk categories and has acceptable reproducibility.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Comparison of placebo and all groups combined for scale steps 8 and 9 suggests that 5-year risks of advanced AMD for untreated eyes in these steps are somewhat higher than those given by the scale.
“comparison of the placebo and all groups combined columns for scale steps 8 and 9 suggests that 5-year risks of advanced AMD for untreated eyes in these steps are somewhat higher than those given by the scale.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The AREDS 5-year progression rates to advanced age-related macular degeneration are similar to those reported in other studies.
“the similarities between our results and those of others (Table 15) are reassuring”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Reproducibility of the scale is similar to that reported for the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study retinopathy severity scale.
“reproducibility similar to that reported for the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study retinopathy severity scale, on which progression by 3 or more steps served as the primary outcome in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial.7”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7]
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- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 6
- May combine two claims. 24
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataOnly 52 eyes had depigmentation without accompanying increased pigment.
“Only 52 eyes had depigmentation without accompanying increased pigment (row 1, columns 2-7).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAmong the 2412 eyes with no pigmentary abnormalities, 38 (1.6%) developed neovascular AMD and none developed CGA.
“among them, 38 (1.6%) developed neovascular AMD and none developed CGA.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe predictive power of drusen area was stronger and more consistent than that of predominance of soft indistinct drusen.
“The predictive power of drusen area was stronger and more consistent than that of predominance of soft indistinct drusen.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataProgression to steps 7 to 9 increased across steps 1 to 6, although there was little difference between steps 2 and 3.
“progression to steps 7 to 9 increased across steps 1 to 6, although there was little difference between steps 2 and 3”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataWithin drusen size categories, the risk of developing advanced AMD generally increases with increasing drusen area, although there is little or no increase between the 2 largest area categories.
“Within drusen size categories, the risk of developing advanced AMD generally increases with increasing drusen area, although there is little or no increase between the 2 largest area categories”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe data for the first and last drusen area categories of Table 6 demonstrate the close association of pigmentary abnormalities with large drusen area; 6% of eyes with drusen area less than C-1 had pigmentary abnormalities, compared with 67% of eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater.
“The data for the first and last drusen area categories of Table 6 demonstrate the close association of pigmentary abnormalities with large drusen area; 6% of eyes with drusen area less than C-1 had pigmentary abnormalities, compared with 67% of eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the 16 participants with CGA in one eye and fellow eye in steps 1 to 6 at baseline, 1 eye developed neovascular AMD and 1 developed CGA (total, 12.5%).
“In the former group, 1 eye developed neovascular AMD and 1 developed CGA (total, 12.5%)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the 41 participants with CGA in one eye and fellow eye in steps 7 to 9 at baseline, 7 developed neovascular AMD, 13 developed CGA, and 2 developed both (total, 53.7%).
“while in the latter group, 7 developed neovascular AMD, 13 developed CGA, and 2 developed both (total, 53.7%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor both neovascular AMD and CGA, risk increased progressively except for the decrease in risk of neovascular AMD in eyes that had previously developed noncentral GA (step 5).
“For both neovascular AMD and CGA, risk increased progressively except for the decrease in risk of neovascular AMD in eyes that had previously developed noncentral GA (step 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe risk of neovascular AMD increased from steps 1 through 8 and then decreased in step 9.
“The risk of neovascular AMD increased from steps 1 through 8 and then decreased in step 9”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataProgression to advanced AMD increased across all 9 steps of the scale, although there was little change between steps 4 and 5.
“Progression to advanced AMD increased across all 9 steps of the scale, al-though there was little change between steps 4 and 5”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationThe Rotterdam study combined drusen type and presence or absence of pigmentary abnormalities to create a 4-step scale based on 5-year risk of GA or neovascular AMD; rates ranged from less than 0.2% for persons with no abnormalities other than hard drusen to 30% in persons with soft indistinct drusen and pigmentary abnormalities.
“The Rotterdam study combined drusen type and presence or absence of pigmentary abnormalities to create a 4-step scale based on 5-year risk of GA or neovascular AMD.Rates ranged from less than 0.2% for persons with no abnormalities other than hard drusen to 30% in persons with soft indistinct drusen and pigmentary abnor-malities.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9]
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May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAs events and rates increased thereafter, trends consistent with the beneficial treatment effect previously reported were seen in steps 5 through 9 and when steps 2 through 9 were pooled.
“As events and rates increased thereafter, trends consistent with the beneficial treatment effect previously reported were seen in steps 5 through 9 and when steps 2 through 9 were pooled.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationDrusen area was reported for all types and sizes combined in the Rotterdam study and in AREDS; progression rates in the largest category were 26% in both.
“Drusen area was reported for all types and sizes combined in the Rotterdam study and in AREDS; progression rates in the largest category were 26% in both.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9]
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May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn participants without advanced AMD in either eye, eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater and without pigmentary abnormalities had a 5-year risk of advanced AMD of about 12%; adding increased pigment (any amount) and/or mild depigmentation (less than circle I-2, about 0.25 DD) doubled the risk; adding more extensive depigmentation or noncentral GA doubled the risk again.
“In participants without advanced AMD in either eye, eyes with drusen area of 0.5 DA or greater and without pigmentary abnormalities had a 5-year risk of advanced AMD of about 12%; adding increased pigment (any amount) and/or mild depigmentation (less than circle I-2, about 0.25 DD) doubled the risk; adding more extensive depigmentation or noncentral GA doubled the risk again (Table 6, bottom row).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationA similar analysis in the Beaver Dam cohort limited to eyes with soft indistinct drusen gave similar results; 5-year rates ranged from 0% of 140 eyes with drusen area less than 0.1 DA to 30% of 50 eyes with drusen area of 0.1 DA or greater and pigmentary abnormalities; the 10-year rate in the latter category approached 60%.
“A similar analysis in the Beaver Dam cohort that was limited to eyes with soft indistinct drusen gave similar results.Five-year rates ranged from 0% of 140 eyes with drusen area less than 0.1 DA (with or without pigmentary abnormalities) to 30% of 50 eyes with drusen area of 0.1 DA or greater and pigmentary abnormalities; the 10-year rate in the latter category approached 60%.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [10]
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FindingcitationIn the Beaver Dam and Blue Mountains studies, drusen area was reported only within drusen type (Beaver Dam) or drusen size (Blue Mountains); rates in the largest categories were 18% and 31%, respectively. Corresponding rates in AREDS were 24% and 26%, respectively.
“In the Beaver Dam and Blue Mountains studies, drusen area was reported only within drusen type (Beaver Dam) or drusen size (Blue Mountains); rates in the largest categories were 18% and 31%, respectively.Corresponding rates in AREDS were 24% and 26%, respectively.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [10]
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FindingcitationProgression rates for eyes with soft indistinct drusen in the Blue Mountains and Rotterdam studies (23% and 18%, respectively) were somewhat higher than the AREDS rate (14%), while the Beaver Dam rate (6%) was somewhat lower.
“Progression rates for eyes with soft indistinct drusen in the Blue Mountains and Rotterdam studies (23% and 18%, respectively) were somewhat higher than the AREDS rate (14%), while the Beaver Dam rate (6%) was somewhat lower.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [12]
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- cites [9]
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Findingown dataEvents were few, and there was no suggestion of a treatment effect through step 4.
“Events were few, and there was no suggestion of a treatment effect through step 4.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn participants with large drusen in only one eye, drusen area was 0.5 DA or greater in that eye in 10%, while in participants with large drusen in both eyes, drusen area was 0.5 DA or greater in at least one eye in 71%.
“In participants with large drusen in only one eye, drusen area was 0.5 DA or greater in that eye in 10%, while in participants with large drusen in both eyes, drusen area was 0.5 DA or greater in at least one eye in 71% (data not shown).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationIn both the Beaver Dam Eye Study and AREDS, drusen size was reported in 4 categories; progression rates were somewhat higher in AREDS in all categories.
“In both the Beaver Dam study and AREDS, drusen size was reported in 4 categories; progression rates were somewhat higher in AREDS in all categories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [10]
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe increase in outcome in step 9 is due exclusively to CGA.
“The bar representing step 9 is offset to emphasize that the increase in outcome in this step is due exclusively to CGA.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationown dataPresence of questionable or definite noncentral GA within the grid was added as the highest step of a combined depigmentation-GA scale.
“Consequently, presence of questionable or definite noncentral GA (within the grid) was added as the highest step of a combined depigmentation (within the inner zone)-GA scale”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe scale-building data set was selected before publication of AREDS results, and analyses were carried out without knowledge of treatment assignment.
“The scale-building data set was selected before publication of AREDS results, and analyses were carried out without knowledge of treatment assignment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationPhotographs from each visit were graded independently of those from all other visits.
“Photographs from each visit were graded independently of those from all other visits.3”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3]
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationown dataInspection of Table 13 and underlying cross-tabulations does not suggest any change in the definitions of scale steps.
“Inspection of Table 13, and of the under- lying cross-tabulations of drusen area by pigment abnormalities from which individual cells were combined to create Table 13 (data not shown), does not suggest any change in the definitions of scale steps.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataA similar analysis for the eye at risk in participants with neovascular AMD in the fellow eye at baseline demonstrated treatment effect more clearly and suggested that risks for untreated eyes in steps 1 to 7 were somewhat higher than those given by the scale.
“A similar analysis for the eye at risk in participants with neovascular AMD in the fellow eye at baseline demonstrated treatment effect more clearly and suggested that risks for untreated eyes in steps 1 to 7 were somewhat higher than those given by the scale”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe scale is based on assessment of good-quality stereoscopic photographs by trained graders using a detailed protocol and measuring grids.
“The scale is based on assessment of good-quality stereoscopic photographs by trained graders using a detailed protocol and measuring grids (Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationParticipants were mostly non-Hispanic whites, and age, sex, race, and other risk factors were not considered.
“Participants were mostly non-Hispanic whites, and age, sex, race, and other risk factors were not considered.8,16”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [8]
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [16]
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationLarge drusen size, extensive drusen area, soft indistinct drusen, and pigmentary abnormalities have all been recognized previously as risk factors for progression to advanced AMD.
“Large drusen size, extensive drusen area, soft indistinct drusen, and pigmentary abnormalities have all been recognized previously as risk factors for progression to advanced AMD, both in persons free of advanced AMD in both eyes and in the second eye of individuals in whom advanced AMD has already developed in the first eye.8”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [8]
Not checked in the free run.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Occurrence of increased pigment and depigmentation in one or more of the 4 outer subfields only might frequently represent a disorder other than AMD.
“because we anticipated that occurrence of these abnormalities in 1 or more of the 4 outer subfields only might frequently represent a disorder other than AMD.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The diameter of the optic disc is 1500 µm.
“When the diameter of the optic disc is assumed to be 1500 µm”
The paper relies on this without support.
The 4 groups used to categorize participants at entry into AREDS were not based on an analysis of outcome data.
“believe it will be more useful in future analyses than the 4 groups used to categorize participants at entry into AREDS, which were not based on an analysis of outcome data.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In both classification schemes, the risk of developing advanced age-related macular degeneration is directly associated with the extent of drusen and the amount of hypopigmentary or hyperpigmentary changes of the retinal pigment epithelial layer.
“In both schemes the risk of developing the advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration is directly associated with the extent of the drusen and the amount of hypopigmentary or hyperpigmentary changes of the retinal pigment epithelial layer.”
From Age-related macular degeneration (2008) · cites this paper as [7]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Pigment-scale steps are assigned to the wrong Table 4 columns
MinorTable 4 has seven depigmentation columns. Step 4 corresponds to column 6 (depigmentation ≥0.5 DA), and step 5 to column 7 (GA), not columns 5 and 6 as stated.
“Steps 4 and 5 represent columns 5 and 6, respectively.”
“| Increased Pigment | None | Questionable | ϽI-2 | ՆI-2, ϽO-2 | ՆO-2, Ͻ0.5 DA | Ն0.5 DA | GA, No. (%) | Total |”
Incorrect percentage for neovascular AMD in pigment-scale step 5
MinorTable 5 reports 2 neovascular AMD cases among 35 eyes in step 5 as 5.2%; the percentage is 5.7% to one decimal place.
Reported 5.2 · recomputed 5.714286
“| 5 | Noncentral GA Նquestionable | | | 35 | 2 (5.2) |”
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- Authors
- Age-Related Eye Disease Study Research Group
- Affiliations
- Emmes (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Age-Related Eye Disease Study Research Group
- Venue
- Archives of Ophthalmology
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2005-11-01
- Volume
- 123
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1484
- ISSN
- 0003-9950 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC1472813
- OpenAlex
- W159419684
- Semantic Scholar
- 99651e191631e8bf84a10da2cf8d08e2b6fbb5a6
- Cited by
- 739
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 37 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 48 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 63 · 2021: 48 · 2020: 48 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 40 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 45 · 2012: 36
- FWCI
- 13.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Archives of Ophthalmology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (1z01ey000394-01)
- National Eye Institute (Z01 EY000394-03)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Retinal Diseases and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Retinal Imaging and Analysis
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Ocular Diseases and Behçet’s Syndrome
- Keywords
- age-related macular degeneration, severity scale, drusen, pigmentary abnormalities, geographic atrophy, neovascular AMD, fundus photography grading, disease progression, risk prediction, retinal pigment epithelium
- MeSH terms
- Atrophy, Humans, Macular Degeneration, Photography, Retina, Retinitis Pigmentosa, Severity of Illness Index, Reproducibility of Results, Retinal Drusen, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Disease Progression
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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