Yield of a public health screening of children for islet autoantibodies in Bavaria, Germany
Open accessAbstract
IMPORTANCE: Public health screening for type 1 diabetes in its presymptomatic stages may reduce disease severity and burden on a population level. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in children participating in a public health screening program for islet autoantibodies and the risk for progression to clinical diabetes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Screening for islet autoantibodies was offered to children aged 1.75 to 5.99 years in Bavaria, Germany, between 2015 and 2019 by primary care pediatricians during well-baby visits. Families of children with multiple islet autoantibodies (presymptomatic type 1 diabetes) were invited to participate in a program of diabetes education, metabolic staging, assessment of psychological stress associated with diagnosis, and prospective follow-up for progression to clinical diabetes until July 31, 2019. EXPOSURES: Measurement of islet autoantibodies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was presymptomatic type 1 diabetes, defined by 2 or more islet autoantibodies, with categorization into stages 1 (normoglycemia), 2 (dysglycemia), or 3 (clinical) type 1 diabetes. Secondary outcomes were the frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis and parental psychological stress, assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (range, 0-27; higher scores indicate worse depression; ≤4 indicates no to minimal depression; >20 indicates severe depression). RESULTS: Of 90 632 children screened (median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 3.1 [2.1-4.2] years; 48.5% girls), 280 (0.31%; 95% CI, 0.27-0.35) had presymptomatic type 1 diabetes, including 196 (0.22%) with stage 1, 17 (0.02%) with stage 2, 26 (0.03%) with stage 3, and 41 who were not staged. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 2.4 (1.0-3.2) years, another 36 children developed stage 3 type 1 diabetes. The 3-year cumulative risk for stage 3 type 1 diabetes in the 280 children with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes was 24.9% ([95% CI, 18.5%-30.7%]; 54 cases; annualized rate, 9.0%). Two children had diabetic ketoacidosis. Median (IQR) psychological stress scores were significantly increased at the time of metabolic staging in mothers of children with presymptomatic type 1 diabetes (3 [1-7]) compared with mothers of children without islet autoantibodies (2 [1-4]) (P = .002), but declined after 12 months of follow-up (2 [0-4]) (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among children aged 2 to 5 years in Bavaria, Germany, a program of primary care-based screening showed an islet autoantibody prevalence of 0.31%. These findings may inform considerations of population-based screening of children for islet autoantibodies.
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Education and anticipatory guidance provided as part of type 1 diabetes screening programs have been shown to significantly reduce the risk of ketoacidosis at the onset of stage 3 type 1 diabetes.
“The education and anticipatory guidance provided as part of these programs have been shown to significantly reduce the risk of ketoacidosis at the onset of stage 3 type 1 diabetes129.”
From 100 years of insulin: celebrating the past, present and future of diabetes therapy (2021) · cites this paper as [129]
The Discussion reports ketoacidosis in fewer than 5% of children in this screening study, compared with previously reported rates above 20% in unscreened children in Germany. The Staging and Follow-up section says children participated in a diabetes education program. These passages support a lower observed rate in a program that included education, but they do not establish a statistically significant reduction or show that education and anticipatory guidance caused it. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStage 1 is defined by the presence of at least two islet autoantibodies and normoglycaemia, and accounts for 80-90% of individuals with presymptomatic disease.
“Stage 1 is defined by the presence of at least two islet autoantibodies and normoglycaemia, and accounts for 80-90% of individuals with presymptomatic disease.8,12”
From The future of type 1 diabetes therapy (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
The Outcome Definitions section defines stage 1 as at least two islet autoantibodies with normal glucose tolerance. In Staging and Follow-up (page not provided), 196 of 239 children assigned a stage after screening were stage 1—about 82%. The paper does not establish that 80–90% of all individuals with presymptomatic disease are stage 1; its figure is limited to the children staged in this screening study. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStage 2 is defined by positive islet autoantibodies accompanied by dysglycaemia.
“Stage 2 is defined by positive islet autoantibodies accompanied by dysglycaemia.8,12”
From The future of type 1 diabetes therapy (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
The Outcome Definitions section defines stage 2 as dysglycemia accompanied by two or more islet autoantibodies. The claim captures the dysglycemia requirement but omits the minimum of two autoantibodies, an essential part of the definition. No page number is provided for the passage. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRecent data suggest that risk of diabetes is equally high in young children with multiple autoantibodies from the general population.
“Recent data suggest that risk of diabetes is equally high in young children with multiple autoantibodies from the general population [ 13 ].”
From Islet autoantibody profiles associated with higher diabetes risk in Lithuanian compared with English schoolchildren (2020) · cites this paper as [13]
Multiple studies indicate that measuring islet autoantibodies in relatives of those with type 1 diabetes or in children from the general population can effectively identify those who will develop type 1 diabetes.
“Multiple studies indicate that measuring islet autoantibodies in relatives of those with type 1 diabetes (47) or in children from the general population (72,73) can effectively identify those who will develop type 1 diabetes.”
From 2. Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2024</i> (2024) · cites this paper as [73]
Measuring islet autoantibodies in relatives of those with type 1 diabetes, in children from the general population, or in children from the general population with high genetic risk can identify many individuals who will develop type 1 diabetes.
“Multiple studies indicate that measuring islet autoantibodies in relatives of those with type 1 diabetes (45), in children from the general population (71,72), or in children from the general population with high genetic risk (73) can identify many individuals who will develop type 1 diabetes.”
From 2. Diagnosis and classification of diabetes: standards of care in diabetes-2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [72]
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- Authors
- Ziegler, A.-G., Kick, K., Bonifacio, E., Haupt, F., Hippich, M., Dunstheimer, D., Lang, M., Laub, O., Warncke, K., Lange, K., Assfalg, R., Jolink, M., Winkler, C., Achenbach, P., & for the Fr1da Study Group
- Affiliations
- TUM Klinikum (DE)
- Helmholtz Munich (DE)
- Klinikum Augsburg, Klinik für Kinder und Jugendliche, Augsburg, Germany
- Berufsverband der Kinder- und Jugendärzte e.V., Landesverband Bayern, Augsburg, Germany
- PaedNetz Bayern e.V., Rosenheim, Germany
- Medizinische Hochschule Hannover (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Ziegler, Anette-Gabriele
- ORCID
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2020-01-28
- Volume
- 323
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 339
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- PMC
- PMC6990943
- OpenAlex
- W3003622489
- Cited by
- 312
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 66 · 2025: 52 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 15
- FWCI
- 20.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- mediaTUM – the media and publications repository of the Technical University Munich (Technical University Munich) (submittedVersion)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- OPUS (Augsburg University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International (3-SRA-2015-72-M-R, LP00228, 1-SRA-2014-310-M-R)
- Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust (G-1911-03274)
- B. Braun-Stiftung (BBST-D-15-00016)
- Diabetes-Stiftung
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (FKZ 01GI0805)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Pancreatic function and diabetes
- Keywords
- islet autoantibodies, public health screening, children, dysglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis, parental psychological stress, depression, primary care pediatricians, Bavaria, screening yield, diabetes education, well-child visits
- MeSH terms
- Autoantibodies, Child, Preschool, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Germany, Humans, Islets of Langerhans, Male, Mass Screening, Parents, Surveys and Questionnaires, Asymptomatic Diseases
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