Cited by 1,312Diabetes and associated disordersDiabetes Management and ResearchPancreatic function and diabetes

Seroconversion to multiple islet autoantibodies and risk of progression to diabetes in children

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Ziegler, Anette G., Rewers, Marian, Simell, Olli, Simell, Tuula, Lempainen, Johanna, Steck, Andrea, Winkler, Christiane, Ilonen, Jorma +4 more·2013·JAMA

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: Type 1 diabetes usually has a preclinical phase identified by circulating islet autoantibodies, but the rate of progression to diabetes after seroconversion to islet autoantibodies is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine the rate of progression to diabetes after islet autoantibody seroconversion. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were pooled from prospective cohort studies performed in Colorado (recruitment, 1993-2006), Finland (recruitment, 1994-2009), and Germany (recruitment, 1989-2006) examining children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes for the development of insulin autoantibodies, glutamic acid decarboxylase 65 (GAD65) autoantibodies, insulinoma antigen 2 (IA2) autoantibodies, and diabetes. Participants were all children recruited and followed up in the 3 studies (Colorado, 1962; Finland, 8597; Germany, 2818). Follow-up assessment in each study was concluded by July 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary analysis was the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with 2 or more autoantibodies. The secondary analysis was the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with 1 autoantibody or no autoantibodies. RESULTS: Progression to type 1 diabetes at 10-year follow-up after islet autoantibody seroconversion in 585 children with multiple islet autoantibodies was 69.7% (95% CI, 65.1%-74.3%), and in 474 children with a single islet autoantibody was 14.5% (95% CI, 10.3%-18.7%). Risk of diabetes in children who had no islet autoantibodies was 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2%-0.6%) by the age of 15 years. Progression to type 1 diabetes in the children with multiple islet autoantibodies was faster for children who had islet autoantibody seroconversion younger than age 3 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.65 [95% CI, 1.30-2.09; P < .001]; 10-year risk, 74.9% [95% CI, 69.7%-80.1%]) vs children 3 years or older (60.9% [95% CI, 51.5%-70.3%]); for children with the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype DR3/DR4-DQ8 (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.68; P = .007]; 10-year risk, 76.6% [95% CI, 69.2%-84%]) vs other HLA genotypes (66.2% [95% CI, 60.2%-72.2%]); and for girls (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.04-1.58; P = .02];10-year risk, 74.8% [95% CI, 68.0%-81.6%]) vs boys (65.7% [95% CI, 59.3%-72.1%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The majority of children at risk of type 1 diabetes who had multiple islet autoantibody seroconversion progressed to diabetes over the next 15 years. Future prevention studies should focus on this high-risk population.

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Crossref · 10.1001/jama.2013.6285

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  • The presence of multiple islet autoantibodies (IAA, GADA, IA-2A/IA-2bA, or ZnT8A) is associated with a risk of type 1 diabetes of >90%.

    “The presence of multiple islet autoantibodies (IAA, GADA, IA-2A/IA-2bA, or ZnT8A) is associated with a risk of type 1 diabetes of >90% (408,422,423).”

    From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [408]

    The Results section (Children With Multiple Islet Autoantibodies; page unavailable) confirms that multiple autoantibodies are associated with high risk, but reports progression of 69.7% at 10 years and 84.2% at 15 years—not greater than 90%. Adding ZnT8 autoantibodies did not substantially change the progression estimates in the cohorts where they were measured. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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  • Seroconversion to two or more serum autoantibodies in children is associated with an 84% risk of clinical type 1 diabetes by age 18 years.

    “Most people with a single autoantibody do not progress to type 1 diabetes, but seroconversion to the presence of two or more serum autoantibodies in children is associated with an 84% risk of clinical type 1 diabetes by the age of 18 years (figure 2A).16”

    From Type 1 diabetes (2018) · cites this paper as [16]

    The Results (Children With Multiple Islet Autoantibodies; page not provided) report an 84.2% risk of type 1 diabetes at 15 years after seroconversion in children with multiple islet autoantibodies. That is not an 84% risk by age 18: the paper measures this figure from seroconversion, not from birth. (LLM, conf=0.91)

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  • Because of the low prevalence of type 1 diabetes (approximately 0.3% in the general population), the positive predictive value of a single islet autoantibody is low.

    “Because of the low prevalence of type 1 diabetes (approximately 0.3% in the general population), the positive predictive value of a single islet autoantibody is low (408).”

    From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [408]

    The Results report a 12.7% risk of diabetes by age 15 in children with one islet autoantibody, versus 61.6% with two, supporting the point that a single antibody is less predictive. The paper does not give a 0.3% general-population prevalence or attribute the lower predictive value to that prevalence. The Discussion also cautions that its genetically susceptible cohort may not represent the general population (page numbers unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.86)

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  • Most individuals without diabetes who have only one autoantibody will not develop type 1 diabetes; the 10-year risk is about 15%.

    “Most individuals without diabetes who have only one autoantibody will not develop type 1 diabetes, as the 10-year risk is about 15% (408).”

    From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [408]

    The Results section, “Children With a Single Islet Autoantibody,” reports a 14.5% risk of progression to diabetes within 10 years, supporting the approximate 15% figure and the statement that most did not progress. The study measured this risk in children, however, while the citing sentence extends it to individuals generally. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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  • It is clear from prospective studies that the persistent presence of two or more islet autoantibodies is a near-certain predictor of clinical diabetes.

    “It is clear from prospective studies that the persistent presence of two or more islet autoantibodies is a nearcertain predictor of clinical diabetes (42).”

    From 2. Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2024</i> (2024) · cites this paper as [42]

    The Results report that 69.7% of genetically at-risk children with multiple islet autoantibodies progressed to type 1 diabetes within 10 years; the Discussion says most progressed, but some remained diabetes-free for more than a decade. This supports a strong predictive association, but “near-certain” overstates the observed risk and omits the study’s population and follow-up limits. The indexed copy provides section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.89)

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Authors
Ziegler, A. G., Rewers, M., Simell, O., Simell, T., Lempainen, J., Steck, A., Winkler, C., Ilonen, J., Veijola, R., Knip, M., Bonifacio, E., & Eisenbarth, G. S.
Affiliations
  • TUM Klinikum (DE)
  • University of Helsinki (FI)
Venue
JAMA
Published
2013-06-19
Volume
309
Issue
23
Pages
2473
ISSN
  • 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
  • 0098-7484
OpenAlex
W2095256598
Cited by
1,312
References
29
Citations by year
2026: 118 · 2025: 133 · 2024: 103 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 107 · 2021: 127 · 2020: 83 · 2019: 92 · 2018: 92 · 2017: 86 · 2016: 89 · 2015: 83 · 2014: 55 · 2013: 18
FWCI
54.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • JAMA (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • mediaTUM (Technical University of Munich) (submittedVersion)
  • Site cant be reached (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International (4‐1999‐731, 4‐2001‐435)
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (/14-2, /14-1)
  • Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Lastentautien Tutkimussäätiö
  • National Institutes of Health (DK32493)
  • National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK32493, R01DK032493, U01DK063821)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Pancreatic function and diabetes
Keywords
type 1 diabetes, islet autoantibodies, seroconversion, multiple autoantibodies, progression to diabetes, insulin autoantibodies, GAD65 antibodies, IA-2 autoantibodies, preclinical diabetes, risk prediction, age at seroconversion, islet transplantation
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Autoantibodies, Child, Child, Preschool, Colorado, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Female, Finland, Follow-Up Studies, Genotype, Germany, Glutamate Decarboxylase, Humans, Infant, Insulin, Islets of Langerhans, Male, Prospective Studies, Risk, Disease Progression, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Receptor-Like Protein Tyrosine Phosphatases, Class 8

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