Assessing water contamination risk from vegetation fires: Challenges, opportunities and a framework for progress
Open accessAbstract
Alberta Innovates, Grant/Award Number: 2096, 2343, 2385; European Commission, Grant/Award Number: 655993; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia,Grant/Award Number: IF/01465/2015; Marie Skłodowska‐Curie, Grant/Award Number: 63830; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme;Swansea University; Sêr Cymru Fellowship; Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Individual Fellowship, Grant/Award Number: 655993; LeverhulmeTrust Fellowship, Grant/AwardNumber: RF‐2016‐456\2; Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, and Melbourne Water; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Grant/Award Number: IF/00586/2015
Verified 2026-10-06 · 4 references not checked yet
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This commentary argues that post-fire water contamination risk assessment lacks a coherent framework and proposes a three-tier approach: identifying contaminants and water assets of concern, understanding dominant contaminant mobilization processes, and mapping dominant pathways to areas of concern. It illustrates the challenges and opportunities with literature synthesis and case examples from Lisbon, Portugal, and Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada.
Key findings
- Vegetation fires affect ~4% of the global vegetated land surface annually, and fire-prone or fire-managed ecosystems provide ~60% of the water supply for the world’s 100 largest cities. Although global burned area declined by ~20% over the last two decades, many water-supply-critical areas face increasing fire risk.
- Post-fire erosion can rapidly transfer sediment, nutrients, PAHs, and heavy metals into stream networks, impacting aquatic ecosystems and drinking water supplies. Cited examples include drinking-water restrictions in Denver (1996, 2002), Canberra (2003), and Belfast (2011), with costs of $26 million for Denver and $38 million for Canberra.
- The proposed framework has three tiers: (1) identifying contaminants and water assets of concern; (2) understanding the dominant processes governing contaminant mobilization; and (3) mapping the dominant pathways linking contaminants to areas of concern. Mitigation opportunities exist before, during, and after fires, including fuel management, suppression, post-fire emergency measures, and treatment plant modification.
- In the Lisbon example, 2003 and 2005 fires threatened the main water supply reservoir with fine sediments, and different assumptions in a water quality model led to contamination estimates ranging from none to severe. In the Fort McMurray example, the 2016 wildfire led to >$1 million (Can.) increases in water-treatment costs in the first year, mainly from dissolved organic carbon shifts, but catastrophic treatment failure was averted.
Methods
- This is a commentary/conceptual synthesis, not an empirical study; no primary data collection, sample, or formal statistical analysis is described.
- The authors introduce a three-tier framework for predicting post-fire water contamination risks and illustrate it with literature and two case examples: Lisbon, Portugal, and Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada.
- The paper draws on existing hydrological, water quality, and drinking-water treatment research and cites prior studies to support the framework and examples.
Limitations
- The paper states that current approaches to risk assessment are often site-specific because of differences in dominant mobilization and transport processes and in the vulnerability of priority water assets; the lack of systematic frameworks makes it difficult to generalize findings and develop adaptation strategies.
- The paper states that subsurface transport remains poorly studied, and that quantifying contaminant amounts available for transport and delivery to receiving waters remains a major challenge.
- Evident from the text: as a commentary, the proposed framework is conceptual and not empirically tested; the case examples are illustrative rather than a systematic validation, and no quantitative synthesis or meta-analysis is presented.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 80 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Premisecitation
Both rill/inter-rill and channel erosion processes can dominate at different times.
“Both processes can also dominate at different times.For example, in northern temperate regions, channel erosion often governs mobilization during the snowmelt period, whereas rainfall dominates more widespread mobilization later in the season (Owens et al., 2013;Silins, Stone, Emelko, & Bladon, 2009).”
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- cites Silins, Stone, Emelko, & Bladon, 2009
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- Premisecitation
Climate change will likely increase risks of water contamination events through increases in droughts, fire frequency, intensity and extent, and intensity of rainfall events.
“Climate change will likely increase risks of water contamination events through increases in droughts, fire frequency, intensity and extent, and intensity of rainfall events (IPCC, 2014;Sankey et al., 2017).”
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- cites Sankey et al., 2017
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- Premisecitation
Runoff-related processes are often driven by high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events.
“Their occurrence is often driven by high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events (Kean, Staley, & Cannon, 2011).”
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- Interpretationreasoning
Contrasting mobilization processes may erode distinct parts of the landscape.
“These contrasting processes may also erode distinct parts of the landscape.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Fire and fuel characteristics determine the generation, or availability after fire, of contaminants.
“Whilst fire and fuel characteristics determine their generation (i.e., their availability after fire), hydrological processes (precipitation, infiltration, runoff, and erosion) drive their mobilization and delivery to water bodies.”
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- Premisecitation
Saturation-based processes are sensitive to tree mortality, gradual root decay, and high-volume rainfall events.
“They are therefore sensitive to tree mortality, gradual root decay, and high-volume rainfall events (Jackson & Roering, 2009).”
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- Premisecitation
Whether a constituent is deemed a contaminant depends on the ecosystem service evaluated, such as human consumption, industrial use, or aquatic ecosystem health.
“whether a constituent is deemed a contaminant depends on the ecosystem service evaluated (e.g., human consumption, industrial use, and aquatic ecosystem health; Calkin et al., 2007).”
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- Premisecitation
Many areas critical for water supply are exposed to increasing fire risk.
“many areas critical for water supply are exposed to increasing fire risk (Doerr & Santin, 2016;Sankey et al., 2017).”
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- cites Sankey et al., 2017
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- Premisecitation
Non-erosional processes include the subsurface mobilization of dissolved contaminants such as DOC, phosphorous, and nitrate in some regions, which is governed by saturation processes.
“Non-erosional processes include the subsurface mobilization of dissolved contaminants such as DOC, phosphorous, and nitrate in some regions, which is also governed by saturation processes (Elliot, Brooks, Traeumer, & Dobre, 2015;Mast & Clow, 2008;Olefeldt, Devito, & Turetsky, 2013).”
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- cites Mast & Clow, 2008
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- cites Olefeldt, Devito, & Turetsky, 2013
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- Interpretationreasoning
Hydrological processes (precipitation, infiltration, runoff, and erosion) drive the mobilization and delivery of contaminants to water bodies.
“Whilst fire and fuel characteristics determine their generation (i.e., their availability after fire), hydrological processes (precipitation, infiltration, runoff, and erosion) drive their mobilization and delivery to water bodies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
It is still difficult to sufficiently predict the probability and magnitude of post-fire contaminant exports to enable reliable water contamination risk assessments in fire-prone catchments and support effective mitigation strategies.
“it is still difficult to sufficiently predict the probability and magnitude of post-fire contaminant exports to enable (a) reliable water contamination risk assessments in fire-prone catchments and (b) support effective mitigation strategies (Shakesby, 2011;Shakesby et al., 2016;Verkaik et al., 2013).”
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- cites Shakesby et al., 2016
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- cites Verkaik et al., 2013
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- Interpretationnone given
Post-fire water contamination risks are governed by the potential generation, mobilization, and accumulation of contaminants in aquatic environments.
“Post-fire water contamination risks are governed by the potential generation, mobilization, and accumulation of contaminants in aquatic environments.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Saturation-based processes, such as post-fire mass failure processes common in steep landscapes of western North America, result from increased soil saturation and decreased soil bulk strength.
“Saturation-based processes, such as post-fire mass failure processes common in steep landscapes of western North America, result from increased soil saturation and decreased soil bulk strength.They are therefore sensitive to tree mortality, gradual root decay, and high-volume rainfall events (Jackson & Roering, 2009).”
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- Interpretationreasoning
The emerging field of post-fire water contamination research has not yet developed a coherent framework that supports addressing regional and universal knowledge gaps.
“The emerging field of post-fire water contamination research has thus not yet developed a coherent framework that supports addressing regional and universal knowledge gaps.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
A major challenge still remains in quantifying contaminant amounts available for transport and delivery to receiving waters.
“yet a major challenge still remains in quantifying contaminant amounts available for transport and delivery to receiving waters.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
In the Lisbon region, a large research focus on sediment mobilization was not combined with a similar focus on transport, exemplifying a limitation in existing approaches.
“This exemplifies a situation where a large research focus on sediment mobilization (Tier 2 of the framework presented here) was not combined with a similar focus on transport (Tier 3 of the framework).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
There is often a lack of connection between contaminant delivery from the land surface and within-stream transport processes.
“However, there is often a lack of connection between contaminant delivery from the land surface and withinstream transport processes (Moody et al., 2013).”
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- Premisecitation
There is a wealth of historical water quality data for streams and reservoirs which can be explored to study the relation between fires and contamination.
“Finally, there is a wealth of historical water quality data for streams and reservoirs which can be explored to study the relation between fires and contamination (Emelko et al., 2016;Rhoades, Entwistle, & Butler, 2011;Santos et al., 2015a).”
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- cites Rhoades, Entwistle, & Butler, 2011
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- cites Santos et al., 2015a
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- Premisecitation
Aquatic environment properties such as volume, flow regime, temperature, and stratification dominate processes including contaminant dilution, attenuation, transformation, and breakdown.
“In contrast, aquatic environment properties such as volume, flow regime, temperature, and stratification dominate processes including contaminant dilution, attenuation, transformation, and breakdown (Samuels, Amstutz, Bahadur, & Pickus, 2006;Smith et al., 2011).”
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- cites Smith et al., 2011
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- Interpretationcitation
Rapid identification of water contamination and treatment risks after the Fort McMurray fire was informed by previous long-term, post-fire, catchment-scale hydrological research conducted in different hydrologic, geologic, and physiographic settings of Alberta's south-eastern, steep-sloped Rocky Mountains.
“While operational expertise and wise infrastructure investment largely enabled this success, rapid identification of water contamination and treatment risks was informed by previous long-term, post-fire, catchment-scale hydrological research (Emelko et al., 2011(Emelko et al., , 2016;;Silins et al., 2009) that was conducted in the different hydrologic, geologic, and physiographic settings of”
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- cites Emelko et al., 2016
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- cites Silins et al., 2009
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- Premisecitation
Contaminant source tracing and apportionment techniques provide valuable insights into characterizing both upstream sources and downstream fate of fire-affected sediments and contaminants in larger river basins downstream of fire.
“Contaminant source tracing and apportionment techniques also provide valuable insights into characterizing both upstream sources and downstream fate of fireaffected sediments and contaminants in larger river basins downstream of fire (Stone, Collins, Silins, Emelko, & Zhang, 2014).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stone, Collins, Silins, Emelko, & Zhang, 2014
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- Premisecitation
Elevated nutrient levels following snowmelt impacted stream ecosystems in burned catchments in Canada.
“reported elevated nutrient levels following snowmelt impacting stream ecosystems in burned catchments in Canada”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Fewer studies focus on lakes, where particle size and density, lake bathymetry, and stratification affect contaminant attenuation and second-order impacts such as nutrient-induced eutrophication.
“There are fewer studies focusing on lakes, where particle size and density, lake bathymetry, and stratification affect contaminant attenuation and second-order impacts such as nutrient-induced eutrophication (Smith et al., 2011).”
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- Premisecitation
Identification of contaminants of concern for priorities such as ecosystem health is more difficult due to complex interactions between contaminants and effects on trophic chains.
“Further identification of contaminants of concern for priorities such as ecosystem health is more difficult due to complex interactions between contaminants and effects on trophic chains (Silins et al., 2014).”
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- Interpretationnone given
Surface transport pathways can differ between mobilization processes.
“Surface transport pathways can differ between mobilization processes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
The connectivity of surface transport pathways for a given process is controlled by factors such as geomorphology, rainfall, or soil properties.
“Their connectivity in the landscape for a given process is controlled by factors such as geomorphology, rainfall, or soil properties (Bracken et al., 2013;Bracken, Turnbull, Wainwright, & Bogaart, 2015).”
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- cites Bracken, Turnbull, Wainwright, & Bogaart, 2015
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- Interpretationnone given
Hydrological contaminant transport can be partitioned into parts where land surface properties dominate and parts where properties of the water body dominate.
“Hydrological contaminant transport can be partitioned into the parts where land surface properties dominate, and where properties of the water body dominate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Acute toxic effects occurred in Portuguese river ecosystems from PAHs dissolved in ash-laden runoff.
“Campos et al. (2012) found acute toxic effects in Portuguese river ecosystems from PAHs dissolved in ash-laden runoff”
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- Premisecitation
Human factors, such as forest tracks, terraces, and post-fire management, add further complication to transport connectivity.
“Human factors, such as forest tracks, terraces, and post-fire management add further complication (Shakesby, 2011;Wagenbrenner, MacDonald, Coats, Robichaud, & Brown, 2015).”
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- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 13
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PremisecitationSpatially widespread rill and inter-rill erosion processes can mobilize the ash that blankets soil after fire, whereas channel erosion processes may release colluvial, bank, or bed stores of clay-sized or clay-adsorbed contaminants.
“For example, spatially widespread rill and inter-rill erosion processes can mobilize the ash that blankets soil after fire (Moody et al., 2013), whereas channel erosion processes may release colluvial, bank, or bed stores of clay-sized or clay-adsorbed contaminants (Smith et al., 2011;Stone, Emelko, Droppo, & Silins, 2011).”
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- cites Smith et al., 2011
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- cites Stone, Emelko, Droppo, & Silins, 2011
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InterpretationreasoningBoth the type and extent of knowledge on post-fire water contamination are limited and regionally diverse.
“As a result, both the type and extent of knowledge are limited and regionally diverse.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenTransport by water erosion plays a dominant role for contaminant delivery to surface water bodies.
“As highlighted above, transport by water erosion plays a dominant role for contaminant delivery to surface water bodies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenPollutants can be mobilized by surface-runoff or saturation-based processes, which are controlled by different system properties.
“Pollutants can be mobilized by surface-runoff or saturation-based processes, which are controlled by different system properties.”
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PremisecitationResearch has only recently focused on linkages between on-site and downstream impacts of fire on water quality and on treatability of contaminated water following fire.
“research has only recently focused on linkages between on-site and downstream impacts of fire on water quality (Abraham, Dowling, & Florentine, 2017;Bladon, Emelko, Silins, & Stone, 2014;Smith, Sheridan, Lane, Nyman, & Haydon, 2011) and treatability of contaminated water following fire (Emelko, Silins, Bladon, & Stone, 2011).”
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- cites Bladon, Emelko, Silins, & Stone, 2014
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- cites Emelko, Silins, Bladon, & Stone, 2011 source
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PremisecitationThe increase in fire risk in water-supply-critical areas is due to increases in fire weather severity and extended fire season in many regions, as well as fuel build-up due to fire suppression, afforestation, land abandonment, and a trend towards more extensive fires.
“This is due to increases in fire weather severity (Flannigan et al., 2013) and extended fire season in many regions (Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, & Swetnam, 2006), as well as fuel build-up due to fire suppression, afforestation, land abandonment, and a trend towards more extensive fires (Doerr & Santin, 2016).”
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- cites Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, & Swetnam, 2006
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- cites Doerr & Santin, 2016
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InterpretationreasoningRunoff-related processes such as inter-rill and rill erosion and runoff-generated debris flows require knowledge on local weather patterns, topography, fire severity, and soil hydrological and erosional characteristics.
“For example, runoffrelated processes such as inter-rill and rill erosion and runoff-generated debris flows require knowledge on local weather patterns, topography, fire severity, and soil hydrological and erosional characteristics.”
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PremisecitationPost-fire contamination events have led to drinking-water restrictions affecting large cities and substantial direct costs for restoring ecosystem services and managing drinking water treatment.
“Such events have led to drinking-water restrictions affecting large cities (e.g., Denver, 1996Denver, , 2002;;Canberra, 2003;Belfast, 2011) and substantial direct costs for restoring ecosystem services and managing drinking water treatment, e.g., $26 Mill.Denver and $38 Mill. Canberra (Denver Water, 2010;White et al., 2006).”
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PremisecitationContaminants can be mobilized by wind and water erosion, debris flow, mass failure, and dissolution in water.
“Contaminants can be mobilized by wind and water erosion, debris flow, mass failure, and dissolution in water (Bodí et al., 2014;Smith et al., 2011).”
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- cites Smith et al., 2011
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PremisecitationPresence of highly erodible ash, combined with enhanced runoff and erosion responses following fire, can rapidly transfer sediment, nutrients, and contaminants of health concern such as PAHs and heavy metals into stream networks, impacting aquatic ecosystems and drinking water supplies.
“Presence of highly erodible ash, combined with enhanced runoff and erosion responses following fire, can rapidly transfer sediment, nutrients, and contaminants of health concern, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals into stream networks (Bodí et al., 2014;Verkaik et al., 2013), impacting aquatic ecosystems (Silva et al., 2015) and drinking water supplies (Smith et al.,”
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- cites Verkaik et al., 2013
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PremisecitationA specific process is often dominant in a particular landscape and can be responsible for the majority of contaminant mobilization and delivery to water systems.
“However, a specific process is often dominant in a particular landscape (Moody et al., 2013) and can be responsible for the majority of contaminant mobilization and delivery to water systems.”
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PremisecitationThe dominant processes that govern contaminant mobilization are often controlled by higher-order factors, such as aridity controlling debris flows occurrence in Australia or land use patterns affecting mobilization.
“The dominant processes that govern contaminant mobilization are often controlled by higher-order factors, for example, aridity controlling debris flows occurrence in Australia (Sheridan et al., 2016) or mobilization being affected by land use patterns (Nunes et al., 2017).”
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PremisecitationThe body of research on post-fire water contamination is still relatively small with enormous variability in reported drivers of post-fire contamination events and location- or end user-specific questions.
“the body of research is still relatively small with enormous variability in the reported drivers of post-fire contamination events (type of pollutants and mobilization processes; Moody et al., 2013) and location-or end user-specific questions (e.g., White et al., 2006;Emelko et al., 2011;Campos et al., 2012;Santín, Doerr, Otero, & Chafer, 2015;Santos, Sanches Fernandes, Pereira, Cortes, & Pacheco,”
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InterpretationreasoningThe identified need to focus on relatively subtle changes in DOC after wildfire both enabled appropriate-albeit costly-water treatment responsiveness and identified key knowledge gaps related to contaminant mobilization in low relief northern landscapes with highly variable hydrologic connectivity.
“Here, the identified need to focus on relatively subtle changes in DOC after wildfire both enabled appropriate-albeit costly-water treatment responsiveness (Tier 1 of the framework) and identified key knowledge gaps related to contaminant mobilization in low relief northern landscapes with highly variable hydrologic connectivity (Tier 2 of the framework).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWater treatment problems immediately post-fire were driven by turbidity in the Australian Bendora reservoir and subsequent releases of dissolved metals from reservoir bottom sediments.
“White et al. (2006) reported water treatment problems immediately post-fire driven by turbidity in the Australian Bendora reservoir and subsequent releases of dissolved metals from reservoir bottom sediments”
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PremisecitationPost-fire contaminants can have lasting legacy effects and downstream transport in larger river basins.
“They also resulted in lasting legacy effects and downstream transport of post-fire contaminants in larger river basins (Emelko et al., 2016).”
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PremisecitationGroundwater contamination has been observed in some areas, but subsurface transport remains poorly studied.
“Groundwater contamination has also been observed in some areas (Mansilha, Carvalho, Guimarães, & Espinha, 2014;Olefeldt et al., 2013), but subsurface transport remains poorly studied.”
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- cites Olefeldt et al., 2013
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PremisecitationRemobilization of contaminants inside the stream network depends on particle size and streamflow properties and can lead to a lagged post-fire response.
“The latter is complicated by remobilization of contaminants inside the stream network, which depends on particle size and streamflow properties, and can lead to a lagged post-fire response (Bladon et al., 2014;Elliot, 2013;Smith et al., 2011).”
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PremisecitationA diverse body of research concerns contaminant transport in aquatic environments, especially in streams, which often highlight high-magnitude but short duration contamination pulses following fire.
“A diverse body of research concerns contaminant transport in aquatic environments, especially in streams, which often highlight high-magnitude but short duration contamination pulses following fire (Smith et al., 2011).”
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PremisecitationRecent studies have focused on determining the sensitivity to post-fire contamination and range from relatively simple spatial indices to more complex assessments based on the probability of occurrence of both fire and post-fire contamination events.
“Recent studies have focused on determining the sensitivity to post-fire contamination and range from relatively simple spatial indices (e.g., Robinne et al., 2016 at the global scale) to more complex assessments based on the probability of occurrence of both fire and the post-fire contamination events (Langhans et al., 2016;Santos et al., 2015a;Thompson et al., 2013).”
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- cites Santos et al., 2015a
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Premisenone givenCurrent approaches to risk assessment are often site-specific because of differences in dominant mobilization and transport processes, as well as vulnerability of priority water assets.
“Current approaches to risk assessment are often sitespecific because of differences in dominant mobilization and transport processes, as well as vulnerability of priority water assets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationnone givenLinking contaminant transport from the land surface to streams, reservoirs, and aquifers is a critical step in assessing water contamination risks after fire.
“However, linking contaminant transport from the land surface to streams, reservoirs, and aquifers is a critical step in assessing water contamination risks after fire.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe sensitivity of a water asset depends on the combined probability of occurrence of fires with relevant severity that produce significant contaminant loads and of contamination-inducing storms during the window of disturbance period, and on landscape- and water asset properties such as transport pathways, residence time of contaminants, and dilution capacity of water bodies.
“This will depend on (a) the combined probability of occurrence of fires with relevant severity that produce significant contaminant loads and of contaminationinducing storms during the window of disturbance period and (b) landscape-and water asset properties, such as their transport pathways, residence time of contaminants, and the dilution capacity of water bodies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationLand surface properties including burn severity, surface roughness, slope, and topographic convergence control the connectivity of overland flow transport processes, which in turn affect contaminant delivery to receiving waters.
“For example, land surface properties including burn severity, surface roughness, slope, and topographic convergence control the connectivity of overland flow transport processes, which in turn affect contaminant delivery to receiving waters (Moody et al., 2013).”
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InterpretationreasoningDifferent mobilization processes are associated with characteristic thresholds, and therefore the dominant process in a given environment can be considered as a first-order control on the magnitude and frequency of contamination events.
“Different mobilization processes are associated with characteristic thresholds, and therefore, the dominant process in a given environment can be considered as a first-order control on the magnitude and frequency of contamination events.”
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PremisecitationHeavy metals may pose significant threats to ecosystem health, but they can be effectively removed by most conventional and advanced drinking water treatment processes.
“For example, while heavy metals may pose significant threats to ecosystem health, they can be effectively removed by most conventional and advanced drinking water treatment processes (see Emelko et al., 2011 for links of contaminants of concern to drinking water infrastructure typologies).”
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InterpretationcitationThe framework outlined can be used to support a post-fire contamination vulnerability assessment.
“The framework outlined above can be used to support a post-fire contamination vulnerability assessment (sensu Adger, 2006).”
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenThe sensitivity of a water asset-the likelihood of it being affected by an important contamination event-can be evaluated by the probability of specific events occurring.
“For example, the sensitivity of a water asset, that is, the likelihood of it being affected by an important contamination event, can be evaluated by the probability of specific events occurring.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationRecent models can account for the seasonal dynamics of hydrological connectivity in burnt areas, improving ability to assess post-fire contamination risk.
“This has recently been addressed by developing models which can account for the seasonal dynamics of hydrological connectivity in burnt areas (Nunes et al., 2016(Nunes et al., , 2017;;van Eck, Nunes, Vieira, Keesstra, & Keizer, 2016).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Nunes et al., 2016
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Nunes et al., 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- cites van Eck, Nunes, Vieira, Keesstra, & Keizer, 2016
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe impacts of fire on vegetation cover and soils change connectivity of transport pathways immediately after fire and throughout the recovery period, with controls including fire severity, burn patchiness, ash characteristics, soil water repellency, and vegetation recovery.
“However, the impacts of fire on vegetation cover and soils change connectivity of transport pathways immediately after fire and throughout the recovery period, with controls including fire severity, burn patchiness, ash characteristics, soil water repellency, and vegetation recovery (Moody et al., 2013;Jordán et al., 2015).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Moody et al., 2013
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Jordán et al., 2015 source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationAdvances in post-fire erosion risk modelling may serve to provide a foundation for more complex contamination models, but science advancements are still needed to support the development of these higher level predictive tools.
“Advances in post-fire erosion risk modelling (Neris et al., 2017;Robichaud et al., 2007) may serve to provide a foundation for more complex contamination models, but science advancements are still needed to support the development of these higher level predictive tools.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Neris et al., 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Robichaud et al., 2007
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire caused periods of source water quality deterioration, especially shifts in DOC, that challenged treatment and led to >$1 million (Can.) increases in associated costs in the first year after the fire, but potentially catastrophic treatment failure was averted.
“While periods of source water quality deterioration, especially shifts in DOC, challenged treatment and led to the >$1 million (Can.) increases in associated costs in the first year after the fire (Thurton, 2017), potentially catastrophic treatment failure was averted.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Thurton, 2017
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenMajor additional treatment costs arose from changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) following the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, Canada.
“major additional treatment costs arose from changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) following the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, Canada”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningIn cases of drinking water supply priorities, treatability risk assessment frameworks can be informed by vulnerability assessments conducted using this framework.
“In cases of drinking water supply priorities, treatability risk assessment frameworks can be informed by vulnerability assessments conducted using this framework.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationRecent advances in hydrological and sediment connectivity theory allow the development of better models and spatial indices to map risk areas and eventually facilitate post-fire interventions.
“At the landscape level, recent advances in hydrological and sediment connectivity theory (Bracken et al., 2013(Bracken et al., , 2015;;Nunes et al., 2017) allow the development of better models (Elliot, 2013;Flanagan et al., 2013;Miller et al., 2016) and spatial indices to map risk areas and eventually facilitate post-fire interventions (Robichaud & Ashmun, 2013).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Bracken et al., 2013
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Nunes et al., 2017
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Robichaud & Ashmun, 2013
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
Contaminants of concern for drinking water are often known and have been broadly linked to infrastructure needs.
“contaminants of concern are often known and have been broadly linked to infrastructure needs”
The paper relies on this without support.
Operational capacity during challenge periods such as the hydrologic events discussed herein remains largely undescribed.
“operational capacity during challenge periods such as the hydrologic events discussed herein remains largely undescribed”
The paper relies on this without support.
The lack of systematic frameworks for assessing risks has made it difficult to generalize research findings from specific studies and develop adaptation strategies in a changing environment.
“The lack of systematic frameworks for assessing risks has made it difficult to generalize research findings from specific studies and develop adaptation strategies in our changing environment.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Post-fire outcomes for the US and Australia do not directly apply to Chile, India, or Canada.
“As such, post‐fire outcomes for the US and Australia do not directly apply to Chile, India, or Canada (Nunes et al., 2018).”
From Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply (2021) · cites this paper as Nunes et al., 2018
The introduction (page unavailable) describes post-fire water-contamination findings as location-specific and regionally diverse, supporting caution about applying outcomes across regions. Section 3 (page unavailable) also describes a Canadian case informed by research from a different Canadian setting. The paper does not specifically conclude that US and Australian outcomes do not directly apply to Chile, India, or Canada. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAsh is susceptible to being transported by wind and water as part of sediment and debris during enhanced post-fire erosion.
“However, ash is also susceptible to being transported by wind and water as part of sediment and debris during enhanced post-fire erosion (Nunes et al., 2018) (Fig. 1a, b).”
From Chemical characteristics of wildfire ash across the globe and their environmental and socio-economic implications (2023) · cites this paper as Nunes et al., 2018
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Self-citationScientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply
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Event-based quickflow simulation with OpenLISEM in a burned Mediterranean forest catchment
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Stream Chemistry After Colorado’s Largest Wildfire: Solute-Specific Responses to Ash and Rainstorms
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Regional Issues of Fire Management: The Role of Extreme Weather, Climate and Vegetation Type
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Self-citationLand Use Change Analysis to Springs Conditions in Gunungpati Sub-District, Semarang City
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Effect of Wildfire on Water Quality of Closed Inland Freshwater Systems in Udaipur, Rajasthan, India
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Wildfire-induced elemental changes in drinking water reservoir sediments
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- Authors
- Nunes, J. P., Doerr, S. H., Sheridan, G., Neris, J., Santín, C., Emelko, M. B., Silins, U., Robichaud, P. R., Elliot, W. J., & Keizer, J.
- Affiliations
- CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon 1749‐016 Portugal
- Swansea University (GB)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- University of Waterloo (CA)
- University of Alberta (CA)
- US Forest Service (US)
- CESAM & Dept. Environment and Planning University of Aveiro Aveiro 3810‐193 Portugal
- Corresponding author
- Doerr, Stefan H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Hydrological Processes
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-01-30
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 687-694
- ISSN
- 0885-6087 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-1085
- OpenAlex
- W2782526389
- Semantic Scholar
- 81657037365445ee146701166bb0f0f3fcafc44b
- Cited by
- 97
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 6.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Hydrological Processes (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Consultation of the Doctoral Thesis Database (TESEO) (Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Alberta Innovates (2096, 2343, 2385)
- European Commission (655993)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (IF/01465/2015, IF/00586/2015)
- H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (63830)
- Swansea University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Stormwater Management Solutions
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Keywords
- water pollution, vegetation fires, evaluation framework
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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