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Cited by 41Fire effects on ecosystemsWater resources management and optimizationHydrology and Watershed Management Studies

A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire

Open access
Robinne, François-Nicolas, Miller, Carol, Parisien, Marc-André, Emelko, Monica, Bladon, Kevin, Silins, Uldis, Flannigan, Mike·2016·Forests
DOI 10.3390/f7010022
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Abstract

Wildfires are keystone components of natural disturbance regimes that maintain ecosystem structure and functions, such as the hydrological cycle, in many parts of the world. Consequently, critical surface freshwater resources can be exposed to post-fire effects disrupting their quantity, quality and regularity. Although well studied at the local scale, the potential extent of these effects has not been examined at the global scale. We take the first step toward a global assessment of the wildfire water risk (WWR) by presenting a spatially explicit index of exposure. Several variables related to fire activity and water availability were identified and normalized for use as exposure indicators. Additive aggregation of those indicators was then carried out according to their individual weight. The resulting index shows the greatest exposure risk in the tropical wet and dry forests. Intermediate exposure is indicated in mountain ranges and dry shrublands, whereas the lowest index scores are mostly associated with high latitudes. We believe that such an approach can provide important insights for water security by guiding global freshwater resource preservation.

Verified 2026-10-06 · 8 references not checked yet

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper introduces the Global Wildfire Water Exposure Index (GWWEI), a 0–100 global raster index combining seven fire and water indicators to map where water resources are exposed to wildfire. It finds highest exposure in tropical wet and dry forests, intermediate exposure in mountains and dry shrublands, and lowest exposure at high latitudes, while sensitivity analysis shows water indicators dominate the index.

Key findings

  • Highest GWWEI scores are concentrated in tropical latitudes, especially the Amazon basin, Congo basin, and Indonesia; moderately high scores occur in subtropical humid forests, fire-prone dry forested savannas, and many mountain ranges; intermediate scores appear in dry savannas, dry steppes, and dry shrublands; lowest scores are in temperate prairies, northern boreal forest, and tundra.
  • Spearman correlations with the GWWEI are highest for water indicators: AET 0.76, SM 0.74, and SR 0.66; among fire indicators, NI is 0.55 and AB is 0.21, while FD (0.11) and AI (0.06) show low influence.
  • The weighting scheme assigns 50% to fire indicators and 50% to water indicators, with 16.6% per water indicator and 12.5% per fire indicator; final pixel scores theoretically range from 0 to 100.
  • Sensitivity analysis created 51 modified indices; highest coefficient of variation is mostly at northern latitudes, the tundra, and the northern circumboreal fringe, with moderately high variability in dense human-pressure areas and some mountain ranges, while lowest variability is in tropical savannas and dry temperate steppes except the North American prairies and northern Australia.

Methods

  • Design: a spatially explicit global exposure index (GWWEI) for wildfire water risk, using seven indicators—area burned (AB), fire danger (FD), natural ignitions (NI), anthropogenic influence (AI), surface runoff (SR), soil moisture (SM), and actual evapotranspiration (AET)—normalized to 0–100 and aggregated additively by weight.
  • Data: off-the-shelf global datasets were rasterized, reprojected to WGS84, and resampled to 0.5°; the FWI layer was used as an extraction mask to exclude deserts, and small islands, Greenland, and Antarctica were removed (28% of global land surface).
  • Analysis: sensitivity was tested with one non-spatial approach and six spatial approaches—Spearman/Pearson correlations, stepwise addition, jackknifing, low/high case scenarios, random weighting, and systematic weighting—producing 51 modified indices and coefficient-of-variation maps.

Limitations

  • Stated: water resource indicators overwhelm fire-related indicators in the GWWEI pattern, raising questions about the equal-weight assumption; future versions should use expert opinion or a larger variable set to improve weighting.
  • Stated: the indicator list is intentionally simple, data availability dependent, and based on long-term averages with some temporal mismatches; global proxies may not be suitable for small areas, and the framework only considers overlapping additive effects without downstream cumulative effects or spatial transmission/downstream routing.
  • Evident from the text: the GWWEI does not describe a quantitative likelihood or probability of impacts; it depicts geographic overlay of drivers and should be interpreted with local environmental, socio-cultural, and economic factors, and the simple correlation coefficients do not explore nonlinear relationships or interactions.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3390/f7010022

Cites

49 of 57 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

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Claims the paper makes

0 of 65 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data
    § AGlobal Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire · p. 1

    The GWWEI indicates intermediate exposure in mountain ranges and dry shrublands.

    “Intermediate exposure is indicated in mountain ranges and dry shrublands”
    • Also stated in: § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 7 · plain
      “Intermediate scores are shown in dry savannas, dry steppes and dry shrublands on all continents, as well as in the Mediterranean, the northwest of the Eurasian boreal forest and the southern range of the North American boreal forest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.
  • Findingown data
    § AGlobal Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire · p. 1

    The lowest GWWEI scores are mostly associated with high latitudes.

    “whereas the lowest index scores are mostly associated with high latitudes.”
    • Also stated in: § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 7 · plain
      “The lowest scores are seen in the temperate prairies of North America, South America and Eurasia, as well as in the northern boreal and the tundra (Figure 3b).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.
  • Findingown data
    § AGlobal Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire · p. 1

    The GWWEI shows the greatest exposure risk in the tropical wet and dry forests.

    “The resulting index shows the greatest exposure risk in the tropical wet and dry forests.”
    • Also stated in: § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 7 · plain
      “Highest scores are concentrated in the tropical latitudes, more specifically in the forests of the Amazon basin, the Congo basin and Indonesia.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.
  • Findingown data
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 7

    Moderately high GWWEI scores are mostly located in subtropical humid forests of southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, Central America, and in fire-prone dry forested savannas of Africa, southeastern South America and southeastern Oceania.

    “Moderately high scores are mostly located in the subtropical humid forests of southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, Central America and in fire-prone dry forested savannas of Africa, southeastern South America and southeastern Oceania.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.
  • Findingown data
    § 3.2. Sensitivity of the GWWEI · p. 9

    Moderately high to high variability in index scores is also shown in areas of dense human pressure, like Japan, Western Europe and eastern North America.

    “Moderately high to high variability in index scores is also shown in areas of dense human pressure, like Japan, Western Europe and eastern North America.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 30
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 40

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3.2. Sensitivity of the GWWEI · p. 9

    NI and AB are the fire indicators that add the most to the pattern of the final index, whereas FD and AI show surprisingly low influence.

    “NI and AB are the fire indicators that add the most to the pattern of the final index, whereas FD and AI show surprisingly low influence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 7

    A large part of northeastern North America and many mountain ranges across the globe show moderately high GWWEI scores.

    “A large part of northeastern North America, as well as many mountain ranges across the globe, also show moderately high scores.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 2.3. Sensitivity Analysis · p. 6

    The GWWEI is most strongly correlated with AET (0.76) and SM (0.74), moderately with SR (0.66) and NI (0.55), and weakly with AB (0.21), FD (0.11), and AI (0.06).

    “GWWEI | GWWEI | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.06 | 0.76 | 0.74 | 0.66”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3.2. Sensitivity of the GWWEI · p. 9

    Robust estimates of the GWWEI (lowest coefficient of variation values) are concentrated in the tropical savannas and the dry temperate steppes, except for the North American prairies, which show a wide range of variability, and northern Australia, which shows a constant high level in all individual indicator scores.

    “Robust estimates of the GWWEI, i.e. , the lowest coefficient of variation values, are concentrated in the tropical savannas and the dry temperate steppes, except for the North American prairies, which show a wide range of variability, and for northern Australia, which shows a constant high level in all individual indicator scores.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    The highest exposure scores were mostly clustered in the tropical wet forests, whereas intermediate scores tended to be localized in tropical dry forest and shrublands, as well as in several mountain ranges and boreal forests; the lowest levels were found in the tundra, temperate forests and temperate prairies.

    “The highest exposure scores were mostly clustered in the tropical wet forests, whereas intermediate scores tended to be localized in tropical dry forest and shrublands, as well as in several mountain ranges and boreal forests. The lowest levels were found in the tundra, temperate forests and temperate prairies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 1

    The water requirements of rapidly growing post-fire vegetation can subsequently limit water quantity, even though water quality may improve.

    “The water requirements of rapidly growing post-fire vegetation can subsequently limit water quantity [4], even though water quality may improve [7].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [4] Kuczera, 1987, Prediction of water yield reductions following a bushfire in ash-mixed species eucalypt forest, J. Hydrol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [7] Dunnette, 2014, Biogeochemical impacts of wildfires over four millennia in a Rocky Mountain subalpine watershed, New Phytol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 2

    Several key global studies used this approach to underline issues in water security and riverine biodiversity, ocean vulnerability to human impact, and to identify natural areas of great importance for ecosystem functioning.

    “Several key global studies used this approach to underline issues in water security and riverine biodiversity [20], ocean vulnerability to human impact [22] and to identify natural areas of great importance for ecosystem functioning [19].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [20] McIntyre, 2010, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Halpern, 2008, A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [19] Freudenberger, 2012, A global map of the functionality of terrestrial ecosystems, Ecol. Complex. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 2

    Resource or risk indices are often created by aggregating proxy variables (indicators) known to play a role in the occurrence of the studied phenomenon.

    “Often, resource or risk indices are created by aggregating proxy variables, called indicators, that are known to play a role in the occurrence of the studied phenomenon [19-22].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [19] Freudenberger, 2012, A global map of the functionality of terrestrial ecosystems, Ecol. Complex. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [20] McIntyre, 2010, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [21] Dickson, B., Blaney, R., Miles, L., Regan, E., van Soesbergen, A., Väänänen, E., Blyth, S., Harfoot, M., Martin, C.S., and McOwen, C. (2014). Towards a Global Map of Natural Capital: KEY Ecosystem Assets, United Nations Environment Program.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Halpern, 2008, A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 1

    Wildfires are essential to ecosystem function across the globe and influence a wide spectrum of ecosystem components and natural processes, including the hydrological cycle.

    “Wildfires are essential to ecosystem function across the globe [1], influencing a wide spectrum of ecosystem components and natural processes [2], among which is the hydrological cycle.”
    • Also stated in: § AGlobal Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire · p. 1 · plain
      “Wildfires are keystone components of natural disturbance regimes that maintain ecosystem structure and functions, such as the hydrological cycle, in many parts of the world.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [1] Bond, 2005, The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire, New Phytol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [2] Lavorel, 2007, Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 2

    In such an approach, raster datasets representing indicators are selected and normalized to assign each pixel a score, each indicator is assigned a weight according to its assumed importance, and numerous indicators are aggregated to create a final raster index.

    “In such an approach, raster datasets representing indicators are selected and normalized to assign each pixel a score. Each indicator is then assigned a weight according to its assumed importance to the phenomenon of interest. Numerous indicators can then be aggregated to create a final raster index, whereby pixel values reflect the degree of risk or resource availability.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [19] Freudenberger, 2012, A global map of the functionality of terrestrial ecosystems, Ecol. Complex. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [20] McIntyre, 2010, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [21] Dickson, B., Blaney, R., Miles, L., Regan, E., van Soesbergen, A., Väänänen, E., Blyth, S., Harfoot, M., Martin, C.S., and McOwen, C. (2014). Towards a Global Map of Natural Capital: KEY Ecosystem Assets, United Nations Environment Program.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Halpern, 2008, A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction · p. 1

    Vegetation cover, litter and soil organic matter can be dramatically reduced by large fires, leading to higher surface runoff and soil erosion, increasing water quantity but decreasing water quality.

    “Vegetation cover, litter and soil organic matter can be dramatically reduced by large fires and can lead to higher surface runoff and soil erosion, increasing water quantity, but decreasing water quality.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [3] USDA (2005). Wildland Fire in Ecosystems: Effects of Fire on Soil and Water, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-42-vol.4. Ogden.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] Kuczera, 1987, Prediction of water yield reductions following a bushfire in ash-mixed species eucalypt forest, J. Hydrol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [5] DeBano, 2000, The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wildland environments: A review, J. Hydrol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [6] Seibert, 2010, Effects of wildfire on catchment runoff response: A modelling approach to detect changes in snow-dominated forested catchments, Hydrol. Res. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    If natural surface runoff increases when vegetation cover is reduced, it becomes more difficult to predict and can lead to greater erosion levels and floods.

    “That said, if natural SR increases when vegetation cover is reduced, it becomes more difficult to predict and can lead to greater erosion levels and floods.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    A recent study argues that human influence tends to decrease fire activity at the global scale and, consequently, the area burned.

    “Nonetheless, a recent study argues that human influence tends to decrease fire activity at the global scale [16] and, consequently, the area burned.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [16] Knorr, 2014, Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    The GWWEI, as part of a larger WWR framework, can contribute to knowledge improvement, especially in mountainous areas known as 'water towers'.

    “The GWWEI, as a part of a larger WWR framework, can contribute to knowledge improvement, especially in mountainous areas, known as 'water towers', across the globe.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 8

    Indicators are global-scale proxies that may not be suitable when estimating fire risk or water discharge across small areas.

    “It is important to note that indicators are global-scale proxies that may not be suitable when estimating fire risk or water discharge across small areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 2.3. Sensitivity Analysis · p. 6

    The Spearman correlation coefficient table was generated as a measure of dependency, such that indicators highly correlated with the final index have an overall higher influence on final index scores.

    “The Spearman correlation coefficient table was generated as a measure of dependency, such that indicators highly correlated with the final index have an overall higher influence on final index scores.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 8

    The GWWEI does not describe a quantitative likelihood or probability of impacts on water resources; it depicts the geographic overlay of important drivers of the WWR and identifies areas where quantitative assessments must be carried out.

    “At this stage of our framework development, it is important to recall that the GWWEI does not describe a quantitative likelihood or probability of impacts on water resources. It rather depicts the geographic overlay of important drivers of the WWR and identifies areas where such quantitative assessments must be carried out.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    Moody and Martin [11] showed the critical exposure of mountainous reservoirs to wildfire impacts, although limited to the western U.S.

    “Moody and Martin [11] showed the critical exposure of mountainous reservoirs to wildfire impacts, although limited to the western U.S.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Moody and Martin [11] Moody, J.A., and Martin, D.A. (2004, January 18–21). Wildfire impacts on reservoir sedimentation in the western United States. Proceedings of the Ninth International Symposium on River Sedimentation, Yichang, China.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    High levels of soil moisture favor runoff and water availability, but soil moisture is also sensitive to post-fire changes in vegetation cover.

    “Although high levels of SM favor runoff and water availability, it is also sensitive to post-fire changes in vegetation cover [39].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [39] Kasischke, 2007, Assessing spatial and temporal variations in surface soil moisture in fire-disturbed black spruce forests in Interior Alaska using spaceborne synthetic aperture radar imagery—Implications for post-fire tree recruitment, Remote Sens. Environ. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 8

    Working at the global scale usually smooths regional differences, so GWWEI scores should be interpreted according to specific environmental, socio-cultural and economic factors.

    “Working at the global scale usually smooths regional differences, and in this regard, the scores should be interpreted according to specific environmental, socio-cultural and economic factors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.2. Data Processing and Aggregation · p. 5

    The study used the FWI layer as an extraction mask for other layers, thereby avoiding result biases by including arid areas where climatic conditions restrain water availability, vegetation growth and wildfire activity.

    “We used the FWI layer, which does not account for desert areas, as an extraction mask for other layers. Therefore, we avoided result biases by including arid areas where climatic conditions restrain water availability, as well as vegetation growth and, consequently, wildfire activity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    The FD indicator, based on the final FWI, provides information about the potential for fire activity, but does not account for actual area burned, vegetation composition or human influence on fire activity.

    “Our FD indicator, based on the final FWI, provides information about the potential for fire activity, but does not account for actual area burned, vegetation composition or human influence on fire activity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    The anthropogenic influence on fire activity is well known but still a matter of debate, as the nature of this influence is complicated.

    “The anthropogenic influence (AI) on fire activity is well known, but is still a matter of debate, as the nature of this influence is complicated [33-35].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [33] Aldersley, 2011, Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci. Total Environ. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [34] Bistinas, 2013, Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales, PLoS ONE source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [35] Archibald, 2013, Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 3.2. Sensitivity of the GWWEI · p. 9

    Nonlinear relationships and interactions might exist but are not explored with the simple correlation coefficients used.

    “Although several nonlinear relationships and interactions might exist, they are not explored with these simple correlation coefficients.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    Post-fire conversion of AET to runoff would be limited by expected increases in post-fire soil-water evaporation.

    “This process would be limited, however, by expected increases in post-fire soil-water evaporation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 2

    The data used have some discrepancies in their time period, but they are the product of large-scale long-term monitoring, which substantially smooths spatial and temporal variability, making them suitable for use in a global model.

    “Although our data have some discrepancies in their time period, they are the product of large-scale long-term monitoring, which substantially smooths spatial and temporal variability, making them suitable for use in a global model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 2.3. Sensitivity Analysis · p. 6

    It is critical in indexation models to test the robustness of the aggregated index to evaluate the level of confidence in the final score.

    “It is critical in indexation models to test the robustness of the aggregated index to evaluate the level of confidence in the final score [48].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [48] OECD (2008). Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators, European Comission.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    Wildfires are rarely considered as a critical threat to water resources by international authorities.

    “Surprisingly, wildfires are rarely considered as a critical threat to water resources by international authorities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    Mori and Johnson [58] demonstrated that mountains might experience significant changes in their fire regime because of climate change.

    “Mori and Johnson [58], for instance, demonstrated that mountains might experience significant changes in their fire regime because of climate change”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mori and Johnson [58] Mori, 2013, Assessing possible shifts in wildfire regimes under a changing climate in mountainous landscapes, For. Ecol. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    The NI indicator considers that a higher lightning flash rate is associated with a higher chance for lightning to reach the ground, potentially starting a fire when the strike occurs in a vegetated area.

    “We build our NI indicator considering that a higher lightning flash rate is associated with a higher chance for lightning to reach the ground, potentially starting a fire when the strike occurs in a vegetated area.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 2

    Slight temporal mismatches may be responsible for some inaccuracies, but these would be relatively minor.

    “Although slight temporal mismatches may be responsible for some inaccuracies, there is reason to believe that these would be relatively minor.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    Lightning activity should not be considered as an actual fire ignition product because it does not account for individual strikes.

    “As it does not account for individual strikes, lightning activity should not be considered as an actual fire ignition product.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    HFP scores are scaled per biome and encompass different socio-environmental configurations, which have different effects on fire activity across the globe.

    “However, scores are scaled per biome and, thus, encompass different socio-environmental configurations, which, in turn, have different effects on fire activity across the globe [35].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] Archibald, 2013, Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    Nogués-Bravo et al. [57] pointed out the extreme sensitivity of headwaters to natural hazards in the context of climate change, though wildfire was not considered.

    “Nogués-Bravo et al. [57] pointed out the extreme sensitivity of headwaters to natural hazards in the context of climate change, though wildfire was not considered.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Nogués-Bravo et al. [57]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 4

    In many places, lightning activity is an important factor of fire ignition that can lead to a large area burned when it occurs in remote areas.

    “In many places of the world, lightning activity is an important factor of fire ignition [23] that can lead to a large area burned when it occurs in remote areas [29-31].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [23] Krawchuk, 2009, Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS ONE source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [29] Stocks, 2002, Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997, J. Geophys. Res.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [30] Bond, 2005, Fire as a global “herbivore”: The ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems, Trends Ecol. Evol. source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [31] Pivello, 2000, Lightning fires in a Brazilian Savanna National Park: Rethinking management strategies, Environ. Manag. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 3

    Area burned has been found to be a good global proxy for fire activity, especially as fire size is an important factor of post-fire impact to water resources.

    “Area burned (AB) has been found to be a good global proxy for fire activity [23], especially as fire size is an important factor of post-fire impact to water resources [3].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [23] Krawchuk, 2009, Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS ONE source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [3] USDA (2005). Wildland Fire in Ecosystems: Effects of Fire on Soil and Water, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-42-vol.4. Ogden.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 2.2. Data Processing and Aggregation · p. 5

    The method is inspired by Freudenberger et al. [19].

    “This method is inspired by the work of Freudenberger et al. [19].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Freudenberger, 2012, A global map of the functionality of terrestrial ecosystems, Ecol. Complex. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § 2.2. Data Processing and Aggregation · p. 5

    The weighting scheme assigns 50% to fire indicators and 50% to water indicators and equally partitions weights within each group, resulting in a theoretical pixel score range of 0 to 100, with higher scores meaning higher concentration of exposure factors.

    “Our weighting scheme assigns 50% to fire indicators and 50% to water indicators and equally partitions the weights within each of these groups. Therefore, we assigned a 16.6% weight to each water indicator (3) and a 12.5% weight to each fire indicator (4). As a result, one pixel's final score in the index theoretically ranges from 0 to 100, a higher score meaning a higher concentration of exposure”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] Freudenberger, 2012, A global map of the functionality of terrestrial ecosystems, Ecol. Complex. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 3

    Fire danger is a measure of the potential for a fire to ignite and spread across the landscape and is critical to assess water resources exposure.

    “Fire danger (FD) is a measure of the potential for a fire to ignite and spread across the landscape and therefore is critical to assess water resources exposure.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [26] Canadian Forestry Servic (1987). Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2.1. Data Selection and Indicators' Definition · p. 3

    An increasing FWI value means lower fuel moisture, higher wind speed and greater fire danger.

    “An increasing index value means lower fuel moisture, higher wind speed and, consequently, a greater fire danger.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [26] Canadian Forestry Servic (1987). Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    Viviroli et al. [56] showed that several mountainous regions provide at least a 'supportive' amount of water for downstream supply needs.

    “Viviroli et al. [56] indeed showed that several mountainous regions provide at least a 'supportive' amount of water for downstream supply needs”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Viviroli et al. [56] Viviroli, 2007, Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and global significance, Water Resour. Res. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § 3.1. Geography of the GWWEI · p. 8

    High GWWEI scores in African savannas are mostly driven by area burned, as those ecosystems experience most of the fire activity on Earth.

    “For instance, high scores in African savannas are mostly driven by the AB, as those ecosystems experience most of fire activity on Earth [24]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24] Giglio, 2013, Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4), J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    This framework adds an important component to the global water security paradigm in the context of climate change that do not presently encompass global wildfire water risk.

    “This framework adds an important component to the global water security paradigm in the context of climate change that do not presently encompass global wildfire water risk.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    The Build-Up Index of the FWI System may be a better proxy to fire impacts than FWI, because it better reflects burn severity, a critical determinant of post-fire hydrological effects.

    “Similarly, the Build-Up Index of the FWI System may be a better proxy to fire impacts than FWI, because it better reflects burn severity, a critical determinant of post-fire hydrological effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    The step of surveying scientists to obtain a robust rating of the score for each indicator has been previously used in several studies describing the creation of risk and resource indices.

    “This step has been previously used in several studies describing the creation of risk and resource indices [20,22,59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [20] McIntyre, 2010, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [22] Halpern, 2008, A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [59] Green, 2015, Freshwater ecosystem services supporting humans: Pivoting from water crisis to water solutions, Glob. Environ. Chang. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationcitation
    § 3.3. The GWWEI and Its Implications for Water Resource Protection · p. 11

    The WWR should be viewed primarily as a source of cumulative effects on water resources whose watersheds are exposed, if not already impacted, by forest degradation and human activities.

    “We argue that the WWR should be viewed primarily as a source of cumulative effects on water resources whose watersheds are exposed, if not already impacted, by forest degradation and human activities [63].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [63] Millar, 2015, Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationown data
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    The variability in the spatial pattern of the index shows that different weighting schemes could improve its robustness.

    “the variability in the spatial pattern of the index shows that different weighting schemes could improve its robustness.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    The global index presented in this study can help pinpoint regions of potential concern that may require a more detailed assessment of wildfire-induced risk to water resources.

    “The global index presented in this study can help us pinpoint regions of potential concern that may require a more detailed assessment of wildfire-induced risk to water resources.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    Resulting estimates of GWWEI could be improved if indicator data were averaged for biome-specific fire seasons, rather than annually.

    “Moreover, resulting estimates of GWWEI could be improved if indicator data were averaged for biome-specific fire seasons, rather than annually.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    The current version of the framework only considers overlapping additive effects mostly based on long-term indicator averages.

    “Our current version of the framework only considers overlapping additive effects mostly based on long-term indicator averages.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    High exposure levels may reveal the potential for deleterious impacts on water quality and downstream cumulative effects that might in turn affect local to regional water security, especially in river basins serving large populations.

    “Indeed, high exposure levels may reveal the potential for deleterious impacts on water quality and downstream cumulative effects that might in turn affect local to regional water security, especially in river basins serving large populations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Fire activity can increase the net quantity of water downstream.
    • Rests on an assumption: Potentially severe impacts on water quality and timing/magnitude of event flows (i.e., floods) can impact a wide range of ecological and human water resource uses (i.e., drinking water).

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    The definition of a WWR opens new perspectives in the understanding of the global water and land systems.

    “In this regard, the definition of a WWR opens new perspectives in the understanding of the global water and land systems.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    Extending the WWR framework to take into account the induced risk to the downstream water supply implies the integration of a 'spatial transmission' process.

    “Extending the WWR framework to take into account the induced risk to the downstream water supply implies the integration of a 'spatial transmission' process”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 3.4. Limitations and Improvements · p. 12

    Improvement of the index depends on the creation of and enhancements to global datasets, especially regarding water-related indicators.

    “It is important to underline that we were dependent on data availability; the improvement of our index will therefore depend on the creation of and enhancements to global datasets, especially regarding water-related indicators, given that several wildfire indicators already exist.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationown data
    § 4. Conclusions · p. 12

    The overwhelming influence of water resource indicators indicates the need for several modifications in the weighting scheme, such as incorporating expert opinion or including a larger set of variables.

    “Notably, the sensitivity analysis showed an overwhelming influence of water resource indicators on the final index scores, which indicates the need for several modifications in the weighting scheme, such as incorporating expert opinion or including a larger set of variables.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
55 of 55

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Areas with higher surface runoff play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are more vulnerable to disturbances.

    “For this study, our indicator assumes that areas showing higher levels of SR play a prominent role in the amount of available water resources and are thus more vulnerable to disturbances.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy, which negatively impact surface runoff levels and amounts of water during the dry season.

    “Our indicator assumes that a drop in soil moisture content after a fire is caused by greater inputs of radiative energy [43], which, in turn, negatively impact SR levels and amounts of water during the dry season.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Without vegetation interception and respiration, actual evapotranspiration will mainly be converted to runoff.

    “Our indicator is used as a proxy for post-fire water-balance change, based on the reasonable assumption that without vegetation interception and respiration, AET will mainly be converted to runoff.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The strong pattern shown by water indicators may mask information contained in fire indicators, thus showing lower levels of correlation in them.

    “We assume that the strong pattern shown by water indicators may mask information contained in fire indicators, thus showing lower levels of correlation in them.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Equal weight is used in the aggregation process of the GWWEI.

    “This raises a question about the assumption of equal weight used in the aggregation process. While we considered this assumption acceptable to create our framework”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Fire activity can increase the net quantity of water downstream.

    “Although fire activity can increase the net quantity of water downstream”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Potentially severe impacts on water quality and timing/magnitude of event flows (i.e., floods) can impact a wide range of ecological and human water resource uses (i.e., drinking water).

    “potentially severe impacts on water quality and timing/magnitude of event flows ( i.e. , floods) can impact a wide range of ecological and human water resource uses ( i.e. , drinking water).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Wildfires can impair water provision services from ecosystems.

    “Although wildfires can impair water provision services from ecosystems”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Wildfires are a natural and essential ecosystem process.

    “they are a natural and essential ecosystem process.”
9 of 9

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Recent studies have focused on determining the sensitivity to post-fire contamination and range from relatively simple spatial indices to more complex assessments based on the probability of occurrence of both fire and post-fire contamination events.

    “Recent studies have focused on determining the sensitivity to post-fire contamination and range from relatively simple spatial indices (e.g., Robinne et al., 2016 at the global scale) to more complex assessments based on the probability of occurrence of both fire and the post-fire contamination events (Langhans et al., 2016;Santos et al., 2015a;Thompson et al., 2013).”

    From Assessing water contamination risk from vegetation fires: Challenges, opportunities and a framework for progress (2018) · cites this paper as Robinne et al., 2016

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • SM is attributed to the wrong stepwise map

    Minor

    The text cites Figure 4c for SM's effect, but the caption shows no SM in 4c. SM first appears in 4e.

  • Jackknifing count conflicts with the number of indicators

    Minor

    Removing each of seven indicators once produces seven modified indices, not eight. The stated total of 51 modified indices also uses seven jackknife indices: 7 + 2 + 14 + 28 = 51.

  • Fire-danger dataset has conflicting end years

    Minor

    Table 1 lists fire-danger coverage through 2014, but the dataset description says it was compiled through 2012.

  • Anthropogenic-influence dataset has conflicting coverage years

    Minor

    Table 1 gives 1960-2004 for anthropogenic influence, whereas its description says the Human Footprint Index data were computed from 1995 to 2004.

  • Area-burned dataset has conflicting coverage years

    Minor

    Table 1 lists 1997-2013 for area burned, while the accompanying description says the data span 1995-2014.

  • AET is attributed to the wrong stepwise map

    Minor

    The text says Figure 4a shows the inclusion of AET, but the figure caption identifies 4a as AB + SR; AET first appears in 4c.

6 of 6

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 58 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. USDA (2005). Wildland Fire in Ecosystems: Effects of Fire on Soil and Water, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-42-vol.4. Ogden.
  2. Moody, J.A., and Martin, D.A. (2004, January 18–21). Wildfire impacts on reservoir sedimentation in the western United States. Proceedings of the Ninth International Symposium on River Sedimentation, Yichang, China.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Robinne, F.-N., Miller, C., Parisien, M.-A., Emelko, M., Bladon, K., Silins, U., & Flannigan, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Alberta (CA)
  • Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
  • Canadian Forest Service (CA)
  • University of Waterloo (CA)
  • Oregon State University (US)
Corresponding author
Robinne, François-Nicolas
ORCID
Venue
Forests
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2016-01-13
Volume
7
Issue
1
Pages
22
ISSN
1999-4907 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/f7010022
OpenAlex
W2237347042
Cited by
41
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2
FWCI
3.71
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Forests (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Global Foundation for Eating Disorders
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Water resources management and optimization
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Keywords
forest fires, water resources, exposure index, post-fire effects, freshwater quality, water availability, mountain ranges, water security, global assessment

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.

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