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Cited by 358

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 34 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Probabilistic prediction in patient management and clinical trials

Spiegelhalter, D. J.·1986·Statistics in Medicine
DOI 10.1002/sim.4780050506
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Abstract

It is argued that the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of future events should be a fundamental task for biostatisticians collaborating in clinical or experimental medicine, and we explore two aspects of obtaining and evaluating such predictions. When covariate information on patients is available, logistic regression and other multivariate techniques are often used to select prognostic factors and create predictive models. An example shows how the explicit aim of prediction needs to be taken into account in such modelling, and how predictive performance may be assessed by decomposition of a scoring rule. Secondly, results from a program that provides pretrial and interim predictions in clinical trials are displayed, bringing together the use of subjective opinion, Bayesian methodology and techniques for evaluating and criticizing predictions.

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Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 10

  1. 10.1136/bmj.288.6429.1536-a · doi:10.1136/bmj.288.6429.1536-a
  2. 10.1136/bmj.287.6400.1173 · doi:10.1136/bmj.287.6400.1173
  3. 10.2307/2988098 · doi:10.2307/2988098
  4. 10.1136/hrt.51.3.330 · doi:10.1136/hrt.51.3.330
  5. 10.1177/0272989X8600600109 · doi:10.1177/0272989x8600600109
  6. 10.1002/cpt1977214482 · doi:10.1002/cpt1977214482
  7. 10.1080/00401706.1977.10489590 · doi:10.1080/00401706.1977.10489590
  8. 10.2307/2529856 · doi:10.2307/2529856
  9. Lindley D. V., 1978, The Bayesian approach, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 5, 1
  10. 10.1177/0272989X8300300409 · doi:10.1177/0272989x8300300409

Cited by

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Metadata

Authors
Spiegelhalter, D. J.
Venue
Statistics in Medicine
Publisher
Wiley
Published
1986-09
Volume
5
Issue
5
Pages
421-433
ISSN
  • 0277-6715 (ISSN-L)
  • 1097-0258
DOI
10.1002/sim.4780050506
OpenAlex
W2084396669
Cited by
358
References
34
FWCI
2.81
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 7346 d)

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