The smart potential behind probability matching

How the mind works

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Working memory span tasks: A methodological review and user’s guide

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An automated version of the operation span task

Unsworth, N., Heitz, R. P., Schrock, J. C., & Engle, R. W. (2005) · Behavior Research Methods · doi:10.3758/bf03192720 · Cited by 1,861

A strategy of win-stay, lose-shift that outperforms tit-for-tat in the Prisoner's Dilemma game

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The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences

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The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?

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Negative Consequences of Dichotomizing Continuous Predictor Variables

Irwin, J. R., & McClelland, G. H. (2003) · Journal of Marketing Research · doi:10.1509/jmkr.40.3.366.19237 · Cited by 425

An Economist’s Perspective on Probability Matching

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The perception of randomness

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Environments That Make Us Smart: Ecological Rationality

Todd, P. M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2007) · Current Directions in Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8721.2007.00497.x · Cited by 364

Maximizing as satisficing: On pattern matching and probability maximizing in groups and individuals

Schulze, C., Gaissmaier, W., & Newell, B. R. (2020) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104382 · Cited by 15

Better calibration when predicting from experience (rather than description)

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2018) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.10.006 · Cited by 11

Predictability and Variation in Language Are Differentially Affected by Learning and Production

Keogh, A., Kirby, S., & Culbertson, J. (2024) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/cogs.13435 · Cited by 10

Make‐or‐Break: Chasing Risky Goals or Settling for Safe Rewards?

Analytis, P. P., Wu, C. M., & Gelastopoulos, A. (2019) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/cogs.12743 · Cited by 9

When irrelevance matters: Stimulus-response binding in decision making under uncertainty.

Nett, N., Bröder, A., & Frings, C. (2015) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/xlm0000109 · Cited by 9

Hold it! The influence of lingering rewards on choice diversification and persistence.

Schulze, C., van Ravenzwaaij, D., & Newell, B. R. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/xlm0000407 · Cited by 11

Myopia drives reckless behavior in response to over-taxation

Spektor, M. S., & Wulff, D. U. (2021) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500008329 · Cited by 9

Peer Information and Risk-taking under Competitive and Non-competitive Pay Schemes

Brookins, P., Brown, J., & Ryvkin, D. (2016) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w22486 · Cited by 9

You Don't Act like you Trust Me: Dissociations between Behavioural and Explicit Measures of Source Credibility Judgement

Gordon, R., & Spears, K. (2011) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1080/17470218.2011.591534 · Cited by 10

A Match Made by Modafinil: Probability Matching in Choice Decisions and Spatial Attention

Geng, J. J., Soosman, S. K., Sun, Y., DiQuattro, N. E., Stankevich, B. A., & Minzenberg, M. (2012) · Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/jocn_a_00333 · Cited by 10

Probability matching does not decrease under cognitive load: A preregistered failure to replicate

Schulze, C., James, G. M., Koehler, D. J., & Newell, B. R. (2019) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-018-0888-3 · Cited by 9

A Bird's‐Eye View of the History of Judgment and Decision Making

Keren, G. B., & Wu, G. (2015) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118468333.ch1 · Cited by 11

Rapid learning of morphologically conditioned phonetics: Vowel nasalization across a boundary

Morley, R. (2013) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199573745.003.0009 · Cited by 7

The effect of explanation in simple binary decision tasks

Taylor, E. G., Landy, D. H., & Ross, B. H. (2012) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1080/17470218.2012.656664 · Cited by 7

Intelligent Object Exploration

Gaschler, R., Katz, D., Grund, M., Peter, A., & Brock, O. (2012) · InTech eBooks · doi:10.5772/25836 · Cited by 7

The memory state heuristic: A formal model based on repeated recognition judgments.

Castela, M., & Erdfelder, E. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/xlm0000299 · Cited by 7

Self-Generated or Cue-Induced—Different Kinds of Expectations to Be Considered

Kemper, M., & Gaschler, R. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00053 · Cited by 7

Gambling-Specific Cognitions Are Not Associated With Either Abstract or Probabilistic Reasoning: A Dual Frequentist-Bayesian Analysis of Individuals With and Without Gambling Disorder

Muela, I., Navas, J. F., & Perales, J. C. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.611784 · Cited by 9

People express more bias in their predictions than in their likelihood judgments.

Park, I., Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Smith, A. R., Stuart, J. O., & Biangmano, M. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001258 · Cited by 7

Resource-rational account of sequential effects in human prediction

Prat-Carrabin, A., Meyniel, F., & da Silveira, R. A. (2023) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.81256 · Cited by 9

Recognition of categorised words: Repetition effects in rote study

Singer, M., Fazaluddin, A., & Andrew, K. N. (2012) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2012.739625 · Cited by 7

From long to short and from short to long: Perceptual motivations for changes in vocalic length

Lehnert‐LeHouillier, H. (2013) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199573745.003.0004 · Cited by 7

Tied to expectations: Predicting features speeds processing even under adverse circumstances

Schwager, S., Gaschler, R., Rünger, D., & Frensch, P. A. (2016) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-016-0683-y · Cited by 7

Balancing model-based and memory-free action selection under competitive pressure

Kikumoto, A., & Mayr, U. (2019) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.48810 · Cited by 7

Probability Matching on a Simple Simulated Foraging Task: The Effects of Reward Persistence and Accumulation on Choice Behavior

Ellerby, Z. W., & Tunney, R. J. (2019) · Advances in Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.5709/acp-0261-2 · Cited by 8

Relative cue precision and prior knowledge contribute to the preference of proximal and distal landmarks in human orientation

Qi, Y., & Mou, W. (2024) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2024.105772 · Cited by 8

Neural implementation of probabilistic models of cognition

Kharratzadeh, M., & Shultz, T. R. (2016) · Cognitive Systems Research · doi:10.1016/j.cogsys.2016.04.002 · Cited by 6

The Monty Hall dilemma in pigeons: Effect of investment in initial choice

Stagner, J. P., Rayburn-Reeves, R. M., & Zentall, T. R. (2013) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-013-0403-6 · Cited by 6

Rational Variability in Children’s Causal Inferences: The Sampling HypothesisPreprint

Denison, S., Bonawitz, E. B., Alison Gopnik, C., & Griffiths, T. L. (2018) · Cognition · doi:10.31219/osf.io/9y6t2 · Cited by 6

A Bayesian model for human directional localization of broadband static sound sourcesPreprint

Barumerli, R., Majdak, P., Geronazzo, M., Avanzini, F., Meijer, D., & Baumgartner, R. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.10.25.513770 · Cited by 6

An educated guess: how coral reef fish make decisions under uncertainty

Newport, C., Sibeaux, A., Wallis, G. M., Wilkins, L., & de Perera, T. B. (2024) · Animal Behaviour · doi:10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.02.016 · Cited by 5

Introducing a Method for Calculating the Allocation of Attention in a Cognitive “Two-Armed Bandit” Procedure: Probability Matching Gives Way to Maximizing

Heyman, G. M., Grisanzio, K. A., & Liang, V. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00223 · Cited by 6

Further evidence for the memory state heuristic: Recognition latency predictions for binary inferences

Castela, M., & Erdfelder, E. (2017) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500006677 · Cited by 4

Lexical sensitivity to phonetic and phonological pressures

Kaplan, A. (2013) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199573745.003.0007 · Cited by 4

Differential hemispheric modulation of preparatory attention

Fernández, L. G., & Siéroff, É. (2014) · Brain and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.bandc.2014.03.006 · Cited by 4

Controlling for initial endowment and experience in binary choice tasks

Fatás, E., Jiménez, F. J., & Morales, A. J. (2011) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1007/s11166-011-9128-y · Cited by 5

Probability matching and reinforcement learning

Rivas, J. (2012) · Journal of Mathematical Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmateco.2012.09.004 · Cited by 4

Disadvantageous associations: Reversible spatial cueing effects in a discrimination task

Nico, D., & Daprati, E. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep16156 · Cited by 4

Prediction oriented behavioral research and its relationship to classical decision researchPreprint

Plonsky, O., & Erev, I. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/7uha4 · Cited by 4

From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate ShocksPreprint

Jiang, B., Rigobon, D. E., & C, R. R. B. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3932708 · Cited by 5

Simultaneous Underweighting and Overestimation of Rare Events: Unpacking a ParadoxPreprint

Szollosi, A., Liang, G., Konstantinidis, E., Donkin, C., & Newell, B. R. (2019) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/fmsze · Cited by 4

Disentangling Perceptual and Process-Related Sources of Behavioral Variability in Categorization

Seitz, F. I., Jarecki, J. B., Rieskamp, J., & von Helversen, B. (2025) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916241264259 · Cited by 3

Failure to use probability of success when deciding whether to pursue one goal or two.

James, W. R. G., Clarke, A. D. F., & Hunt, A. R. (2017) · Cognitive Science · Cited by 3

The association between experience‐based risky choice and mathematical ability

Sheng, Y., Yu, M., Liu, P., Wang, X., Bai, X., & Zhou, X. (2022) · PsyCh Journal · doi:10.1002/pchj.612 · Cited by 3

Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context

Kóbor, A., Tóth-Fáber, E., Kardos, Z., Takács, Á., Éltető, N., Janacsek, K., Csépe, V., & Németh, D. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-27642-z · Cited by 5

Probabilistic prediction and context tree identification in the Goalkeeper game

Hernández, N., Galves, A., García, J. E., Gubitoso, M. D., & Vargas, C. D. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-66009-w · Cited by 3

Cognitive strategies for peer judgments.

Olsson, H., Barman‐Adhikari, A., Galešić, M., Hsu, H.-T., & Rice, E. R. W. (2023) · Decision · doi:10.1037/dec0000208 · Cited by 3

Simulating probability learning and probabilistic reversal learning using the attention-gated reinforcement learning (AGREL) model

Erdeniz, B., & Atalay, N. B. (2010) · International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) · doi:10.1109/ijcnn.2010.5596783 · Cited by 3

Communicating Meaning in the Intelligence Enterprise

Broniatowski, D. A. (2019) · Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1177/2372732218792061 · Cited by 3

Optimal response vigor and choice under non-stationary outcome values

Dezfouli, A., Balleine, B. W., & Nock, R. (2018) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-018-1500-3 · Cited by 2

Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environmentsPreprint

Konstantinidis, E., Harman, J. L., & González, C. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/f34qb · Cited by 3

Task switching with probabilistic reward schemes

Janczyk, M., Danwitz, L., Fröber, K., & von Helversen, B. (2025) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2025.105029 · Cited by 2

Learning to explore the structure of kinematic objects in a virtual environment

Buckmann, M., Gaschler, R., Sebastian, H., Loeben, D., Frensch, P. A., & Brock, O. (2015) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00374 · Cited by 2

The influence of affect on suboptimal strategy choice in the Monty Hall dilemma

Efendić, E., & Drače, S. (2015) · Psihologija · doi:10.2298/psi1502135e · Cited by 2

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

Wang, T. S. L., Christie, N., Howe, P. D. L., & Little, D. R. (2016) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2016.01743 · Cited by 2

Heuristics and protective behavior for floods

Starominski-Uehara, M. (2021) · Risk Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy · doi:10.1002/rhc3.12221 · Cited by 2

Switching costs in stochastic environments drive the emergence of matching behaviour in animal decision-making through the promotion of reward learning strategies

Lyu, N., Hu, Y., Zhang, J., Lloyd, H., Sun, Y., & Tao, Y. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-02979-5 · Cited by 3

Biased Preferences through Exploitation

Harris, C., & Ruud Custers, A. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009002042.012 · Cited by 2

Further Perceptions of Probability: In Defence of Associative Models – A Commentary on Gallistel et al. 2014Preprint

Forsgren, M., Juslin, P., & van den Berg, R. (2019) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2020.01.30.927558 · Cited by 2

Understanding the Origin of Information-Seeking Exploration in Probabilistic Objectives for ControlPreprint

Millidge, B., Seth, A. C., & Buckley, C. L. (2021) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2103.06859 · Cited by 11

Variable and sub-optimal responses to a choice problem are a persistent default modePreprint

Hunt, A. R., James, W. R. G., Reuther, J., Spilioti, M., Mackay, E., & Clarke, A. D. F. (2019) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/p37tg · Cited by 2

Algorithm Credulity: Human and Algorithmic Advice in Prediction ExperimentsPreprint

Chevrier, M., Corgnet, B., Guerci, É., & Rosaz, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4828701 · Cited by 2

Probability matching and statistical naïveté

Barlow, M., Doan, T., Friedman, O., & Denison, S. (2025) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/jdm.2025.10014 · Cited by 1

Do children match described probabilities? The sampling hypothesis applied to repeated risky choice

Thoma, A. I., & Schulze, C. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2024.106126 · Cited by 2

Free Imagination

Tse, P. U. (2024) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198901181.001.0001 · Cited by 2

When more control means better choices: Cognitive control networks drive expected-value maximization under uncertainty

Wu, X., Geng, Y., Chen, Y., Zhang, S., Liu, T., You, S., Liu, F., Jiang, Y., Wang, Q., & Wu, T. (2026) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2026.121989 · Cited by 1

Factors Affecting Probability Matching Behavior

Gao, J. (2013) · doi:10.7916/d8sf33j6 · Cited by 1

Optimised agent-based modelling of action selection

Seth, A. K. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511731525.007 · Cited by 2

Good fortune but bad luck? Predictable versus unpredictable gains and losses in risky choice

Ranieri, A. Y., Kauffman, S. S., & Schneider, S. L. (2019) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.2117 · Cited by 1

Who shows the Unlikelihood Effect – and why?

Ingendahl, M., Woitzel, J., & Alves, H. (2024) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-024-02453-z · Cited by 3

What is the purpose of cognition?

Szollosi, A., & Newell, B. R. (2020) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x19001626 · Cited by 1

Six of one, half dozen of the other: Suboptimal prioritizing for equal and unequal alternatives

James, W., Hunt, A. R., & Clarke, A. D. F. (2022) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-022-01356-5 · Cited by 2

Inductive Inference in Infants and Young Children: The Role of Probabilistic Reasoning

Denison, S. (2012) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 1

Act versus Impact: Conservatives and Liberals Exhibit Different Structural Emphases in Moral JudgmentPreprint

Hannikainen, I. R., Miller, R., & Cushman, F. A. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2727363 · Cited by 1

Hemispheric differences in preparatory attention : a divided visual field study

Fernández, L. G. (2013) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/2a62532dz987fz4990z8871zd1c128403e1e · Cited by 1

What You Get Is What You See: How the Evidence We Obtain Through Our Behavior Shapes Our Perception of the World

Harris, C. A. (2022) · Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) · doi:10.33540/873 · Cited by 1

Learning under uncertainty: a model-based approach for understanding gambling behaviour

Yu, E. C. (2011) · Doctoral thesis, UCL (University College London).

Abordagem computacional e psicofísica da alocação atencional e tomada de decisão.

da Silva, C. F. (2011) · Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (Universidade de São Paulo) · doi:10.11606/t.42.2011.tde-04102011-163948

RELPH: A Computational Model for Human Decision Making

Sepahvand, N. M. (2013) · UWSpace (University of Waterloo)

INVESTIGATION OF THE MONTY HALL DILEMMA IN PIGEONS AND RATS

Stagner, J. P. (2013) · UKnowledge (University of Kentucky)

Probability matching via deterministic neural networks

Kharratzadeh, M., & Shultz, T. R. (2015) · neural information processing systems

Towards an Understanding of How People Build Mental Representations

Valadao, D. F. (2016) · UWSpace (University of Waterloo)

Estimating the Unknown by the Hot Hand Belief

Sun, Y., & Wang, H. (2011) · eScholarship (California Digital Library)

Evolutionary stability of discriminating social norms

Abramczuk, K. (2016) · Decyzje · doi:10.7206/dec.1733-0092.77

The Study of Two Cognitive Processes on Probability Matching

李, 剑. (2017) · Advances in Psychology · doi:10.12677/ap.2017.710152

More than One Kind of Probability Matching: Evidence from a Dual-Task Paradigm

Otto, A. R., Markman, A. B., & Taylor, E. (2010) · eScholarship (California Digital Library)

Influência da previsibilidade de eventos no ambiente e na inibição motora proativa sobre efeitos atencionais observados em tarefas de tempo de reação.

Sais, F. A. (2018) · doi:10.11606/t.42.2018.tde-16022018-104027

Dynamical preferences and self-actuated language changes

Michaud, J. (2018) · International Conference on the Evolution of Language (EvoLang) · doi:10.12775/3991-1.074

Properties of decision-making tasks govern the tradeoff between model-based and model-free learningPreprint

Abzug, Z. M., Sommer, M. A., & Beck, J. M. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/730663

Testing the predictive coding account of temporal integration in the human visual system : a computational and behavioural study

Aitken, F. (2019) · St Andrews Research Repository (St Andrews Research Repository) · doi:10.17630/10023-19158

A Game Theoretic Perspective on the Utterance Selection Model for Language Change

Michaud, J. (2020) · KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)

The Hot Hand Exists in Volleyball and Is Used for Allocation Decisions

Gigerenzer, G. (2015) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199390076.003.0009

Myopia drives reckless behavior in the face of over-taxationPreprint

Spektor, M. S., & Wulff, D. U. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/34gzp

Consequences of Selective Sampling

Fiedler, K., Juslin, P., & Denrell, J. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009002042.011

Information Sampling in Contingency Learning

Bott, F. M., & Meiser, T. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009002042.014

Integration of facial and contextual cues in emotion inferences is limited and variable across categories and individualsPreprint

Goel, S. S., Jara‐Ettinger, J., Ong, D. C., & Gendron, M. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ukqw9

Towards re-unifying the theoretical perspectives on conditioning, category learning, probability learning and economic decisions from experience.Preprint

Schlegelmilch, R., Wills, A. J., & von Helversen, B. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/h4nu6 · Cited by 1

Can We Learn to Make Better Decisions?

Tunney, R. J. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-56972-2_4

The Birth of Our Free Imagination

Tse, P. U. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198901181.003.0002

Introduction

Tse, P. U. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198901181.003.0001

Keywords: Probability matching

Gaissmaier, W., & A, L. J. S. (2016)

Probability matching and strategy availability

J. Koehler, D., & James, G. (2010) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/mc.38.6.667 · Cited by 85

Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

Koehler, D. J., & James, G. M. (2014) · The Psychology of learning and motivation/The psychology of learning and motivation · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-800283-4.00003-4 · Cited by 20

Cognitive limitation or sophistication? Probability matching, wavy recency, and underweighting of rare events are associated with pattern search

Schulze, C., Plonsky, O., & Teodorescu, K. (2023) · eScholarship (California Digital Library)

Probability matching in choice under uncertainty: intuition versus deliberation.

Koehler, D. J., & James, G. (2009) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2009.07.003 · Cited by 94