Examining the robustness of the relationship between metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias
Open accessAbstract
We recently found a positive relationship between estimates of metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias. However, this relationship was only examined on a within-subject level and required binarizing the confidence scale, a technique that introduces methodological difficulties. Here we examined the robustness of the positive relationship between estimates of metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias by conducting two different types of analyses. First, we developed a new within-subject analysis technique where the original n-point confidence scale is transformed into two different (n-1)-point scales in a way that mimics a naturalistic change in confidence. Second, we examined the across-subject correlation between metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias. Importantly, for both types of analyses, we not only established the direction of the effect but also computed effect sizes. We applied both techniques to the data from three tasks from the Confidence Database (N > 400 in each). We found that both approaches revealed a small to medium positive relationship between metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias. These results demonstrate that the positive relationship between metacognitive efficiency and metacognitive bias is robust across several analysis techniques and datasets, and have important implications for future research.
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Factors only indirectly related to metacognitive capacity may contribute to findings of domain-generality, such as how confidence scales are used or the adoption of a particular threshold for postdecisional evidence accumulation.
“In addition, there are concerns that factors only indirectly related to metacognitive capacity may contribute to findings of domain-generality-such as how confidence scales are used, or the adoption of a particular threshold for postdecisional evidence accumulation (Desender et al. 2022, Xue et al. 2021).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Xue et al. 2021
The Discussion (page not provided) warns that changes in overall confidence, including those induced by task instructions or feedback affecting use of low confidence ratings, can spuriously change estimated metacognitive efficiency. This supports the concern about confidence-scale use, but our copy does not connect it explicitly to findings of domain-generality or address a threshold for postdecisional evidence accumulation. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe assumption that meta-d'/d' is fully independent of metacognitive bias and performance has been challenged.
“However, the assumption that meta-d ′ /d ′ is fully independent of metacognitive bias and performance has been challenged (Guggenmos 2021, Xue et al. 2021).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Xue et al. 2021
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- Authors
- Xue, K., Shekhar, M., & Rahnev, D.
- Affiliations
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Xue, Kai
- Venue
- Consciousness and Cognition
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-10
- Volume
- 95
- Pages
- 103196
- ISSN
- 1053-8100
- PMC
- PMC8560567
- OpenAlex
- W3197547467
- Cited by
- 45
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 3
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Consciousness and Cognition (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (R01MH119189)
- Office of Naval Research (N00014-20-1-2622)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Keywords
- metacognitive efficiency, metacognitive bias, metacognition, confidence estimation, within-subject analysis, effect size
- MeSH terms
- Metacognition, Humans
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