The East–West divide in response to COVID-19
Open accessAbstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths per million population in the countries of the West had often exceeded those in the countries of the East by factor of 100 by May 2021. In this paper, we refer to the West as represented by the United States plus the five most populous countries of Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom), and the East as the 15 countries in East Asia and Oceania that are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP (Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). This paper argues that currently available information points to the factors most responsible for the East-West divide. Warnings by early January 2020 about an atypical viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China, prompted rapid responses in many jurisdictions in East Asia. Publication of the virus's genome on 10 January 2020 provided essential information for making diagnostic tests and launching vaccine development. China's lockdown of Wuhan on 23 January 2020 provided a final, decisive signal of the danger of the new disease. By late March 2020, China had fully controlled its epidemic, and many other RCEP countries had taken early and decisive measures, including restrictions on travel, that aborted serious outcomes. Inaction during the critical month of February 2020 in the United States and most other Western countries allowed the disease to take hold and spread. In both the East and the West, stringent population-wide non-pharmaceutical interventions were widely implemented at great cost to societies, economies, and school systems. Without these measures, the outcomes could have been even worse. Most countries in the East also implemented tightly focused policies to isolate infectious individuals. Even today, most countries in the West allow infectious individuals to mingle with their families, coworkers, and communities. Much of the East-West divide plausibly results from failure in the West to implement the basic public health policies of early action and the isolation of infectious individuals. Widespread immunization in some RCEP and high-income countries will soon attenuate their outbreaks, while the slow rollout of vaccines in lower income countries is replacing the East-West divide in outcomes with a North-South one. The South is thus replacing the West as the breeding ground for more dangerous variants as exemplified by the highly contagious Delta variant, which may undermine hitherto successful control strategies in many countries.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Pablos Mendez et al and Jamison and Wu point to an East-West divide in 2020, with a factor of up to 100 to 1 separating countries.
“Pablos Mendez et al and Jamison and Wu point to an “East-West divide” in 2020,183,184, with a factor of up to 100 to 1 separating countries.”
From Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (2024) · cites this paper as [183]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China
Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., Zhang, L., Fan, G., Xu, J., Gu, X., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30183-5 · Cited by 48,884 · see citing works
Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575 · see citing works
A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China
Wu, F., Zhao, S., Yu, B., Chen, Y.-M., Wang, W., Song, Z.-G., Hu, Y., Tao, Z.-W., Tian, J.-H., Pei, Y.-Y., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3 · Cited by 11,688 · see citing works
A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern
Wang, C., Horby, P. W., Hayden, F. G., & Gao, G. F. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30185-9 · Cited by 7,700 · see citing works
Wu, J. T., Leung, K., & Leung, G. M. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30260-9 · Cited by 4,389 · see citing works
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
Davies, N. G., Abbott, S., Barnard, R. C., Jarvis, C. I., Kucharski, A. J., Munday, J. D., Pearson, C. A. B., Russell, T. W., Tully, D. C., Washburne, A. D., et al. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abg3055 · Cited by 2,633 · cited 12× · see citing works
“The possible presence of SARS-CoV-2 in France, Italy, and the United States (based on antibodies identified in blood and tissue samples) before the emergence of the disease in Wuhan, points to the difficulty of using surveillance systems to detect a new but initially silent virus [16–21].”
InfluentialOrigin of HIV-1 in the chimpanzee Pan troglodytes troglodytes
Gao, F., Bailes, E., Robertson, D. L., Chen, Y., Rodenburg, C. M., Michael, S. F., Cummins, L. B., Arthur, L. O., Peeters, M., Shaw, G. M., et al. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/17130 · Cited by 1,764 · see citing works
Wouters, O. J., Shadlen, K. C., Salcher‐Konrad, M., Pollard, A. J., Larson, H. J., Teerawattananon, Y., & Jit, M. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00306-8 · Cited by 1,291 · see citing works
AIDS as a Zoonosis: Scientific and Public Health Implications
Hahn, B. H., Shaw, G. M., De, K. M., Cock, & Sharp, P. M. (2000) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.287.5453.607 · Cited by 1,234 · see citing works
COVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at New Year
Chen, S., Yang, J., Yang, W., Wang, C., & Bärnighausen, T. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30421-9 · Cited by 815 · see citing works
Han, E., Tan, M. M. J., Turk, E., Sridhar, D., Leung, G. M., Shibuya, K., Asgari, N., Oh, J., García-Basteiro, A. L., Hanefeld, J., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32007-9 · Cited by 814 · see citing works
Fangcang shelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies
Chen, S., Zhang, Z., Yang, J., Wang, J., Zhai, X., Bärnighausen, T., & Wang, C. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30744-3 · Cited by 724 · see citing works
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
Ord, T. (2020) · Cited by 557 · see citing works
Death from COVID-19 of 23 Health Care Workers in China
Zhan, M., Qin, Y., Xue, X., & Zhu, S. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmc2005696 · Cited by 313 · cited 1× · see citing works
“By mid-January 2020, the number of serious cases began to increase rapidly, including health care workers [28,29].”
Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9): Improving Health and Reducing Poverty
Jamison, D. T. T., Gelband, H., Horton, S., Jha, P., Laxminarayan, R., Mock, C., & Nugent, R. A. (2017) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0527-1 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Self-citationCOVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic
Editors (2021) · New Zealand Science Review · doi:10.26686/nzsr.v77i1-2.7752 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Covid-19 mass testing facilities could end the epidemic rapidly
Peto, J. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m1163 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Testing on the move: South Korea's rapid response to the COVID-19 pandemic
Lee, D., & Lee, J.-H. (2020) · Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives · doi:10.1016/j.trip.2020.100111 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly
Sachs, J. D., Abdool Karim, S., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Cuevas Barron, G., Daszak, P., Espinosa, M. F., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31927-9 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy
Apolone, G., Montomoli, E., Manenti, A., Boeri, M., Sabia, F., Hyseni, I., Mazzini, L., Martinuzzi, D., Cantone, L., Milanese, G., et al. (2021) · Tumori Journal · doi:10.1177/0300891620974755 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Clarifying the evidence on SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid tests in public health responses to COVID-19
Mina, M. J., Peto, T., García‐Fiñana, M., Semple, M. G., & Buchan, I. E. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00425-6 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Basavaraju, S. V., Patton, M. E., Grimm, K., Rasheed, M. A. U., Lester, S., Mills, L., Stumpf, M., Freeman, B., Tamin, A., Harcourt, J., et al. (2021) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa1785 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Chumakov, K., Avidan, M. S., Benn, C. S., Bertozzi, S. M., Blatt, L., Chang, A. Y., Jamison, D. T., Khader, S. A., Kottilil, S., Netea, M. G., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2101718118 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citationA Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic
Agarwal, R., & Gopinath, G. (2021) · IMF staff discussion note · doi:10.5089/9781513577609.006 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an oropharyngeal swab specimen, Milan, Italy, early December 2019
Amendola, A., Bianchi, S., Gori, M., Colzani, D., Canuti, M., Borghi, E., Raviglione, M. C., Zuccotti, G. V., & Tanzi, E. (2021) · Emerging Infectious Diseases · doi:10.3201/eid2702.204632 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Carrat, F., Figoni, J., Henny, J., Desenclos, J.-C., Kab, S., de Lamballerie, X., & Zins, M. (2021) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
Mazo, J. (2021) · Survival · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Horton, R. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30669-3 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
The COVID-19 Catastrophe: What's Gone Wrong and How to Stop It Happening Again
Horton, R. (2020) · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Jamison, J., Bundy, D. A. P., Jamison, D. T. T., Spitz, J., & Verguet, S. (2021) · Health Services Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6773.13688 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationChen, S., Chen, Q., Yang, W., Xue, L., Liu, Y., Yang, J., Wang, C., & Bärnighausen, T. (2020) · Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.eng.2020.07.018 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Public health policies and health-care workers’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand
Nittayasoot, N., Suphanchaimat, R., Namwat, C., Dejburum, P., & Tangcharoensathien, V. (2021) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.20.275818 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
COVID-19-related dermatosis in November 2019: could this case be Italy's patient zero?
Gianotti, R., Barberis, M., Fellegara, G., Galván‐Casas, C., & Gianotti, E. (2021) · British Journal of Dermatology · doi:10.1111/bjd.19804 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Bat cave solves mystery of deadly SARS virus — and suggests new outbreak could occur
Cyranoski, D. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-017-07766-9 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Chen, S., Chen, Q., Yang, J., Lin, L., Li, L., Jiao, L., Geldsetzer, P., Wang, C., Wilder‐Smith, A., & Bärnighausen, T. (2020) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa226 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Sachs, J. D., Abdool Karim, S., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Cuevas Barron, G., Daszak, P., Fernanda Espinosa, M., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00388-3 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Rich countries should tithe their vaccines
Yamey, G. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-021-00470-9 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
The Loss from Pandemic Influenza Risk
Fan, V. Y., Jamison, D. T. T., & Summers, L. H. (2017) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0527-1_ch18 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationThe COVID-19 Epidemic in China
Lau, L. J., & Xiong, Y. (2020) · WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks · doi:10.1142/11890 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in Italy, in early December 2019.
(2021) · PubMed · doi:10.26355/eurrev_202104_25746 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Institutional versus home isolation to curb the COVID-19 outbreak – Authors' reply
Wilder‐Smith, A., Cook, A. R., & Dickens, B. S. L. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32171-1 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
A global compact to counter vaccine nationalism
Jha, P., Jamison, D. T. T., Watkins, D., & Bell, J. I. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01105-3 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationSARS-CoV-2 risk misclassification explains poor COVID-19 management
Hernández, J. M. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32169-3 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Can Cuba beat COVID with its homegrown vaccines?
Mega, E. R. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-021-01126-4 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
New WTO leader faces COVID-19 challenges
Zarocostas, J. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00507-9 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Zhang, G. (2021) · China Perspectives · doi:10.4000/chinaperspectives.11919 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
Ferguson, N. (2021) · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Gallo, R. C., & Weekly, C. C. (2021) · China CDC Weekly · doi:10.46234/ccdcw2021.037 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
5 of the 53 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 4
- [56]The secret to Vietnam’s COVID-19 response success: a review of Vietnam’s response to COVID-19 and its implications [Internet]. Washington, DC: The Diplomat; 2020 Apr 18 [cited 2021 May 15]. Available from: https//the diplomat.com/2020/04/the-secret-to-vietnams-covid-19-response-success/.
- [57]Emerging COVID-19 success story: Vietnam’s commitment to containment [Internet]. Oxford: Our World in Data; 2020 Jun [cited 2021 May 15]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-vietnam-2020.
- [59]Emerging COVID-19 success story: South Korea learned the lessons of MERS [Internet]. Oxford: Our World in Data; 2020 Jun 30 [cited 2021 May 15]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea-2020.
- [86]COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people [Internet]. Oxford: Our World in Data; c2021 [cited 2021 May 16]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Wang, W., Wang, C.-Y., Wang, S., & Wei, J. C. (2022) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101619 · Cited by 343 · see citing works
Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century
Jamison, D. T., Summers, L. H., Chang, A. Y., Karlsson, O., Mao, W., Norheim, O. F., Ogbuoji, O., Schäferhoff, M., Watkins, D., Adeyi, O., et al. (2024) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01439-9 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Self-citationMuttamba, W., O'Hare, B. A.-M., Saxena, V., Bbuye, M., Tyagi, P., Ramsay, A., Kirenga, B., & Sabiiti, W. (2022) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-060838 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Lau, L. L., Hung, N., Go, D. J., Choi, M., Dodd, W., & Wei, X. (2022) · Journal of Global Health · doi:10.7189/jogh.12.05015 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
COVID-19 responses, human rights and the cultural context of Global South
Uddin, M. K., Chy, M. T., & Ahmmed, H. U. (2022) · International Journal of Human Rights in Healthcare · doi:10.1108/ijhrh-01-2022-0002 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Isolation facilities for covid-19: towards a person centred approach
Foo, C. D., Haldane, V. E., Jung, A.-S., Grépin, K. A., Wu, S., Singh, S., Perera, N., Miranda, J. J., McKee, M., & Legido‐Quigley, H. (2022) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-069558 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Lee, Z., Tan, P. L., & Tan‐Soo, J. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0324113 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Morgan, T., Pilimatalawwe, D., Morgan, K., Duschinsky, R., Gott, M., & Wiles, J. L. (2024) · Health Risk & Society · doi:10.1080/13698575.2024.2372097 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Luo, Y., Feng, X., Wang, D., Zheng, Y., Qiao, X., Jia, S., Xiao, X., & Reinhardt, J. D. (2025) · BMC Nursing · doi:10.1186/s12912-025-04046-0 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Roberts, S. L., Samuel, G. N., Huang, P.-Y., Lee, P., & Kuan, C. (2025) · Global Public Health · doi:10.1080/17441692.2025.2593786 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Temporal dynamics for areal unit-based co-occurrence COVID-19 trajectories
Owusu, G., Yu, H., & Huang, H. (2022) · AIMS Public Health · doi:10.3934/publichealth.2022049
Can Digital Financial Behavior Improve the Effect of Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in China?
Wang, S. (2023) · Global Journal of Health Science · doi:10.5539/gjhs.v15n5p1
Pityaratstian, N. (2024) · Chulalongkorn Medical Journal · doi:10.56808/2673-060x.5451
A Temporal and Spatial Analysis of the COVID-19 Epidemic in China
Lau, L. J., & Xiong, Y. (2024) · China and the World · doi:10.1142/s2591729324500019
Ho, S., Liu, Y., Ho, S., Chen, S., Chung, M., & Chang, L. (2026) · Journal of Medical Virology · doi:10.1002/jmv.70929
- Authors
- Jamison, D. T., & Wu, K. B.
- Affiliations
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- Corresponding author
- Jamison, Dean T.
- ORCID
- Jamison, Dean T.
- Venue
- Engineering
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-07
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 936-947
- ISSN
- 2095-8099 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8196471
- OpenAlex
- W3171884185
- Cited by
- 16
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 6
- FWCI
- 1.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Engineering (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Direktoratet for Utviklingssamarbeid (RAF-18/0009)
- Trond Mohn stiftelse (BF2019MT02)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Legal, Health, Environmental and COVID-19 Challenges
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, East-West divide, COVID-19 mortality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, lockdown, Wuhan lockdown, United States, vaccine rollout, North-South divide, Delta variant, public health policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
