The DOI matches its Crossref record; 106 of the 106 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?
Open accessAbstract
A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate, technology and socio-economics has led to the realisation that identification of “best-guess” future conditions might no longer be appropriate. Instead, multiple plausible futures need to be considered, which requires (i) uncertainties to be described with the aid of scenarios that represent coherent future pathways based on different sets of assumptions, (ii) system performance to be represented by metrics that measure insensitivity (i.e. robustness) to changes in future conditions, and (iii) adaptive strategies to be considered alongside their more commonly used static counterparts. However, while these factors have been considered in isolation previously, there has been a lack of discussion of the way they are connected. In order to address this shortcoming, this paper presents a multidisciplinary perspective on how the above factors fit together to facilitate the development of strategies that are best suited to dealing with a deeply uncertain future.
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Cites
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Cited by
van der Giesen, C., Cucurachi, S., Guinée, J., Kramer, G. J., & Tukker, A. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120904 · Cited by 386
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Self-citationEight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling
Elsawah, S., Filatova, T., Jakeman, A. J., Kettner, A. J., Zellner, M. L., Athanasiadis, I. N., Hamilton, S. H., Axtell, R. L., Brown, D. G., Gilligan, J. M., et al. (2020) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling · doi:10.18174/sesmo.2020a16226 · Cited by 205
Futures literacy and the diversity of the future
Mangnus, A. C., Oomen, J., Vervoort, J. M., & Hajer, M. A. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102793 · Cited by 181
Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. J., & Bryan, B. A. (2020) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 · Cited by 130
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Metadata
- Authors
- Maier, H. R., Guillaume, J. H. A., van Delden, H., Riddell, G. A., Haasnoot, M., & Kwakkel, J. H.
- Venue
- Environmental Modelling & Software
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-07
- Volume
- 81
- Pages
- 154-164
- ISSN
- 1364-8152 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2509731930
- Cited by
- 490
- References
- 106
- FWCI
- 29.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
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