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The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
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“SSPs 3 and 4 envision more pessimistic development trends, with little investment in education or health, fast growing population, and increasing inequalities.”
From The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 (2016) · cites this paper as O'Neill et al., 2015
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“SSPs 1 and 5 envision relatively optimistic trends for human development, with substantial investments in education and health, rapid economic growth, and well-functioning institutions.”
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“SSP2 envisions a central pathway in which trends continue their historical patterns without substantial deviations.”
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“However, SSP5 assumes an energy intensive, fossilbased economy, while in SSP1 there is an increasing shift toward sustainable practices.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., & Solecki, W.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Washington (US)
- Chulalongkorn University (TH)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Denver (US)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- University of Stuttgart (DE)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Columbia University (US)
- Hunter College (US)
- Corresponding author
- O’Neill, Brian C.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 169-180
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1992193293
- Cited by
- 3,359
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 401 · 2025: 469 · 2024: 478 · 2023: 485 · 2022: 413 · 2021: 329 · 2020: 250 · 2019: 201 · 2018: 156 · 2017: 93
- FWCI
- 266.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, long-term scenarios, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, social development, expert opinion, future scenarios, human development, technology and institutions, natural resources
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