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The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
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“SSPs 3 and 4 envision more pessimistic development trends, with little investment in education or health, fast growing population, and increasing inequalities.”
From The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 (2016) · cites this paper as O'Neill et al., 2015
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“SSPs 1 and 5 envision relatively optimistic trends for human development, with substantial investments in education and health, rapid economic growth, and well-functioning institutions.”
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“SSP2 envisions a central pathway in which trends continue their historical patterns without substantial deviations.”
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“However, SSP5 assumes an energy intensive, fossilbased economy, while in SSP1 there is an increasing shift toward sustainable practices.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., & Solecki, W.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Washington (US)
- Chulalongkorn University (TH)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Denver (US)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- University of Stuttgart (DE)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Columbia University (US)
- Hunter College (US)
- Corresponding author
- O’Neill, Brian C.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 169-180
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1992193293
- Cited by
- 3,359
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 401 · 2025: 469 · 2024: 478 · 2023: 485 · 2022: 413 · 2021: 329 · 2020: 250 · 2019: 201 · 2018: 156 · 2017: 93
- FWCI
- 266.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, long-term scenarios, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, social development, expert opinion, future scenarios, human development, technology and institutions, natural resources
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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