The prevalence of aortic stenosis in the elderly in Iceland and predictions for the coming decades: The AGES–Reykjavík study
Open accessAbstract
Aims To evaluate the prevalence of significant aortic valve stenosis (AS) in a randomly selected study population of elderly individuals representing the general population of Iceland. Furthermore, to predict the number of individuals likely to have severe AS in the future.Methods and results Echocardiography and computed tomography (CT) data from individuals who participated in the AGES-Reykjavik study were used. Echocardiography data from 685 individuals (58% females) aged 67-95 years were available. In both sexes combined, the prevalence for severe AS, defined as an aortic valve area index of <0.6 cm2/m2, in the age groups<70, 70-79 and ≥80 years was 0.92%, 2.4% and 7.3%, respectively. A ROC analysis on the relation between the echocardiography data and the aortic valve calcium score on CT defined a score≥500 to be indicative of severe AS. Subsequently, in a CT study cohort of 5256 individuals the prevalence of severe AS in the same age groups was 0.80%, 4.0% and 9.5%, respectively. Overall, the prevalence of severe AS by echocardiography and CT in individuals≥70 years was 4.3% and 5.9%, respectively. A prediction on the number of elderly≥70 years for the coming decades demonstrated that patients with severe AS will have increased 2.4 fold by the year 2040 and will more than triple by the year 2060.Conclusion This study, in a cohort of elderly individuals representative of the general population in a Nordic country, predicts that AS will be a large health problem in the coming decades.
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In developed countries, the number of patients with calcific aortic stenosis older than 70 or 75 years is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 50 years.
“Estimates based on current prevalence rates and demographic forecasts predict that the number of patients with calcific AS >70 or >75 years of age will increase twofold to threefold over the next 50 years in developed countries15;16;19.”
From Calcific aortic stenosis (2016) · cites this paper as [15]
The Results (‘Predicting the future’; page unavailable) project a 2.4-fold increase in Icelanders aged ≥70 with severe aortic stenosis by 2040 and a more-than-threefold increase by 2060. The Conclusions foresee a similar trend in other western countries, but the paper does not provide a twofold-to-threefold estimate for developed countries as a whole or for an over-75 age group. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe burden of calcific aortic stenosis is expected to rise over the coming decades because of population aging and the absence of a prevention strategy that reduces disease progression.
“The burden of calcific AS in the community is expected to increase over the next decades owing to population aging and the lack of a prevention strategy aimed at reducing disease progression.”
From Calcific aortic stenosis (2016) · cites this paper as [15]
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- Authors
- Danielsen, R., Aspelund, T., Harris, T. B., & Gudnason, V.
- Affiliations
- University of Iceland (IS)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Venue
- International Journal of Cardiology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-10
- Volume
- 176
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 916-922
- ISSN
- 0167-5273 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4742571
- OpenAlex
- W1992419135
- Cited by
- 168
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 3
- FWCI
- 3.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- International Journal of Cardiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Hirsla (Landspítali University Hospital) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute on Aging (N01-AG12100, ZIAAG007380)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac Valve Diseases and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Aortic Disease and Treatment Approaches
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Cardiac Imaging and Diagnostics
- Keywords
- aortic stenosis, prevalence, older adults, AGES-Reykjavik Study, aortic valve calcium score, echocardiography, computed tomography, disease burden projections, Iceland
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Aortic Valve Stenosis, Female, Humans, Iceland, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Cohort Studies, Prevalence
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