Cited by 387Vector-borne infectious diseasesClimate Change and Health ImpactsViral Infections and Vectors

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Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change

Lindgren, Elisabet, Gustafson, Rolf·2001·The Lancet

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Abstract

Background The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden has substantially increased since the mid-1980s. During the same period the climate has become milder and ticks have become more abundant. We investigated whether there is a link between the change in climate and the increase in incidence of TBE.Methods Since the late 1950s all cases of encephalitis admitted in Stockholm County have been serologically tested for TBE. We analysed the period 1960-98 with multiple regressions. The number of days per season with temperatures of known importance for tick prevalence and pathogen transmission were studied. 2 years of temperature data were related to each TBE incidence rate to account for the tick's long life-span.Findings Increases in disease incidence was significantly related (R(2)=0.58; p<0.0001) to a combination of two consecutive mild winters, temperatures favouring spring development (8-10 degrees C) and extended autumn activity (5-8 degrees C) in the year prior to the incidence year, and temperatures allowing tick activity (5-8 degrees C) early in the incidence year.Interpretations The findings indicate that the increase in TBE incidence since the mid-1980s is related to the period's change towards milder winters and early arrival of spring. Other factors may have influenced TBE incidence such as more people in endemic locations, and increases in host animal populations; factors which are partly climate related. Access to TBE vaccination since 1986 and increased awareness of ticks might have caused an underestimation of the links found. Our findings also suggest that the incidence of other tick-borne zoonoses might have been affected by the milder climate.

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Authors: Lindgren, E., & Gustafson, R.
Affiliations: Stockholm University (SE)
Karolinska Institutet (SE)
Corresponding author: Lindgren, Elisabet
ORCID: Lindgren, Elisabet
Venue: The Lancet
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2001-07
Volume: 358
Issue: 9275
Pages: 16-18
ISSN: 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
0140-6736
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(00)05250-8
OpenAlex: W2143532042
Cited by: 387
References: 17
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 13
FWCI: 11.75
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: The Lancet (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Vectors
Keywords: tick-borne encephalitis, climate change, temperature, tick activity, disease incidence, spring temperature, autumn temperature, tick-borne zoonoses, Sweden, Stockholm County
MeSH terms: Animals, Climate, Cross-Sectional Studies, Encephalitis, Tick-Borne, Humans, Risk Factors, Sweden, Ticks, Incidence, Greenhouse Effect

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Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climate change

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