The DOI matches its Crossref record; 106 of the 110 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 14 of the 57 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.
Open accessAbstract
Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause…
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Claims the paper makes
135 Own result · 32 Own method · 27 Own interpretation · 26 No basis given · 21 No full text of the sources · 6 Supported · 6 Partly supported · 4 Sources not found · 1 Not checked yet · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Even for these deaths, the comparability of findings on the leading causes of death is affected by variation in certification skills among physicians, the diagnostic and pathological data available at the time of completing a death certificate, variations in medical culture in choosing the underlying cause, and legal and institutional frameworks for governing mortality reporting.1–5”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [1] Murray, 2006, Understanding the coronary heart disease versus total cardiovascular mortality paradox: a method to enhance the comparability of cardiovascular death statistics in the United States, Circulation sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Clinical Perspective (p. 2081) identifies differences in clinical information, certificate-completer skills, and regional cause-of-death practices as factors that can undermine comparability. The paper addresses cardiovascular deaths specifically; the cited passages do not establish the broader claim about leading causes of death or identify legal and institutional reporting frameworks as a factor. (LLM, conf=0.86)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [2] Ruzicka, 1990, The use of cause-of-death statistics for health situation assessment: national and international experiences, World Health Stat Q
- Not matchedcites [3] Lopez, 1993, Causes of death in the industrialized and developing countries: estimates for 1985–1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Mathers, 2005, Counting the dead and what they died from: an assessment of the global status of cause of death data, Bull World Health Organ
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [5] Lu, 2001, Diversity in death certification: a case vignette approach, J Clin Epidemiol source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Second, there is systematic misclassification of deaths in cause of death data sources, particularly for congenital syphilis,53,54 whooping cough,55 measles,56 and HIV/AIDS.57”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [53] Schulz, 1987, Pregnancy loss, infant death, and suffering: legacy of syphilis and gonorrhoea in Africa, Genitourin Med sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In “Incidence of Congenital Syphilis” (page unavailable), the paper says its estimate of syphilis-related deaths is too low partly because many stillborn infants lack clinical evidence of congenital syphilis. This supports underrecognition of syphilis-related deaths, but the paper does not specifically establish systematic misclassification in cause-of-death data sources. This citation is attached to congenital syphilis, not the other diseases listed. (LLM, conf=0.80)
- Not matchedcites [54]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Supportedcites [55] Crowcroft, 2002, Deaths from pertussis are underestimated in England, Arch Dis Child source
Citation 55 is attached to whooping cough, not the other diseases in the sentence. The Abstract reports that national mortality statistics significantly underestimate deaths from pertussis in England, and the Discussion attributes missing cases in the mortality database to inaccurate or imprecise certified causes of death. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [56] Anker, 1997, The effect of misclassification error on reported cause-specific mortality fractions from verbal autopsy, Int J Epidemiol source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“For the GBD 2010, we assessed the completeness of vital registration or sample registration data over age 5 years using the most accurate variants of death distribution methods: synthetic extinct generations, the generalised growth balance method, and a hybrid of the two.46”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [46] Murray, 2010, What can we conclude from death registration? Improved methods for evaluating completeness, PLoS Med source
The Methods section identifies synthetic extinct generations (SEG), generalized growth balance (GGB), and their hybrid (GGBSEG) as the three death-distribution method families for assessing death-registration completeness. The Discussion identifies the best-performing variant of each. The citing authors’ statement about how they applied those methods in GBD 2010 is their own description, not a result attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“For the GBD 2010, we identified causes that should not be assigned as underlying cause of death at a much more detailed level.50”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [50] Naghavi, 2010, Algorithms for enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data, Popul Health Metr source
The Methods section (‘A Typology of Garbage Codes’; page unavailable) identifies categories of codes that should not be treated as underlying causes of death and gives specific ICD-code examples. The Results section (‘Evolution of garbage codes across ICD revisions’; page unavailable) says this analysis used a more extensive definition of such codes than prior GBD work, supporting the claim of greater detail. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“For diabetes, the risk factor analysis99 provides an assessment of all mortality associated with hyperglycaemia. This number is substantially larger than the number of deaths directly coded to diabetes estimated here.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [99] Lim, 2012, A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
The Results (page not available in our copy) estimate 3.4 million deaths attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in 2010, supporting the attribution of a hyperglycaemia-related mortality estimate to this risk-factor analysis. The comparison with deaths directly coded to diabetes is made against the citing authors’ own estimate, not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.89)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“The high levels of mortality for lower respiratory infections might be related to the bias in physician diagnosis of verbal autopsies, which was demonstrated in a rigorous validation study.68”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [68] Lozano, 2011, Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards, Popul Health Metr sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results sections on individual cause assignment and CSMF estimation report poor physician-certified verbal-autopsy performance for pneumonia, including inaccurate estimates of its mortality fraction. The study does not establish that this bias inflated lower respiratory infection mortality in the population discussed by the citing paper. (LLM, conf=0.85)
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Verbal autopsy cause fractions are representative of the study population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For vital registration with medical certification of causes of death, we identified 2798 site-years of data from 130 countries between 1980 and 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 114
- Probably not a substantial claim. 43
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“we have changed our analytical approach (see below) to an ensemble modelling strategy to generate more realistic uncertainty intervals (UIs) and more accurate predictions.38”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [38] Foreman, 2012, Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm, Popul Health Metr source
The Background section (‘Principles for cause of death model development’; page not supplied) says ensemble models provide lower prediction error and more accurate uncertainty intervals. The Methods section (‘Creating ensemble models’) explains that CODEm creates and tests ensemble models to improve predictions and capture uncertainty due to model specification. (LLM, conf=0.94)
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“We adjusted data for bias using a revised version of the hospital adjustment method, which uses more data and is more consistent with the GBD cause list developed by Murray and colleagues in 2007.42”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [42] Murray, 2007, Estimating population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital mortality: validation of a new method, PLoS Med sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Methods > Validation passage says the 2007 paper used a GBD cause list and adapted it into 45 cause groups. The paper also proposes a method for reducing bias in hospital mortality data (Abstract > Conclusions). It does not say it developed the GBD cause list in 2007; its reference for that list is Murray and Lopez (1996). Nor does it establish that the citing authors’ revised method uses more data. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“the 66 000 to 199 000 deaths for the year 2005 reported by Nair and colleagues75 in 2010”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [75] Nair, 2010, Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Lancet source
The Discussion reports an estimate of 66,000–199,000 deaths from RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection in 2005 among children younger than 5 years. The citing sentence accurately attributes that range and year to Nair and colleagues. (LLM, conf=0.95)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“They reviewed the published studies on RSV but chose, on the basis of expert opinion, to assume no RSV deaths in individuals older than 2 years;75 the scientific literature, however, records deaths in those older than 2 years.77,78”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [75] Nair, 2010, Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Lancet sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results passage says the authors assumed that all deaths from RSV-associated severe acute lower respiratory infection occurred in the first two years of life. It grounds that assumption in age-stratified mortality data from unpublished studies, not expert opinion. The assumption concerns severe disease in young children, not all RSV deaths in people older than two; the separate claim about recorded deaths carries other citations. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Could not verifycites [77] Almirall, 2007, Differences in the etiology of community-acquired pneumonia according to site of care: a population-based study, Respir Med sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results report RSV among the causes of pneumonia and give overall inpatient and outpatient mortality rates, but do not link any death to RSV. Searches for RSV-specific deaths and mortality found no passage documenting deaths in people older than 2 years. The Nair assumption is attached to a different citation in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.74)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [78] Díaz, 2007, Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients in chile: the increasing prevalence of respiratory viruses among classic pathogens, Chest source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Validation studies suggest that verbal autopsy studies overestimate adult deaths at low malaria cause fractions and underestimate adult malaria deaths when malaria deaths are common.68”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [68] Lozano, 2011, Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards, Popul Health Metr sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (CSMF estimation; page unavailable) report estimates that are too high at low true cause fractions and too low at high fractions for adult asthma when health-care experience is included. They describe malaria estimates as poorly correlated with true fractions, but do not report that directional pattern for adult malaria deaths. The claim applies an observed pattern for another cause to malaria. (LLM, conf=0.82)
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Verbal autopsy validation studies68 suggest that verbal autopsy is accurate for some causes such as breast cancer, drowning, or road injury, but less accurate for other causes. Verbal autopsy performance for some key causes of child death such as lower respiratory infections is particularly poor.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [68] Lozano, 2011, Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards, Popul Health Metr source
The Results (Individual cause assignment) report relatively high chance-corrected concordance for breast cancer, drowning, and road traffic accidents in adults, alongside poor performance for several other causes. The same section reports chance-corrected concordance below 33% for pneumonia in children, supporting the claim about poor performance for child lower respiratory infections. These findings concern physician-certified verbal autopsy. (LLM, conf=0.93)
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Verbal autopsy cause fractions are representative of the study population.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45–54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17–28%.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We identified 486 site-years of published and unpublished verbal autopsy data across 66 countries, of which 10% were nationally representative.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainn = 8- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990;”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a causen = 9- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Important sex differences were evident from ages 15–34 years; among male individuals, injuries, HIV/TB, and some non-communicable diseases predominate.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, for some causes such as African trypanosomiasis, almost no deaths are recorded in vital registration or verbal autopsy studies, most likely because data have not been obtained in focal populations with substantial disease present.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also identified 56 surveys or censuses with information on injury mortality across 65 survey years or census years.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the neonatal age groups, disorders arising during the neonatal period dominated, but with important contributions from the category of diarrhoeal disease, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious and non-communicable diseases, including congenital causes.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Beginning at age 50 years, circulatory causes begin a steady rise to become the largest cause of death.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Out-of-sample performance also varies substantially across causes; kidney cancer has the largest RMSE in female individuals (2·039) and the smallest RMSE is for cardiovascular and circulatory disease in male individuals (0·555).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More than 50% of the models the appendix (p 112) have an out-of-sample RMSE of less than 1.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because of the correlation between population growth rates and mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes, population growth alone would have increased this category by 46·9%, non-communicable diseases by 22·9%, and injuries by 31·1% (table 1).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cancers claimed 8·0 million lives in 2010, 15·1% of all deaths worldwide”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of note, the gap between in-sample and out-of-sample performance varies substantially across causes—from mechanical forces (firearm) with the largest difference to leukaemia with the smallest.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among female individuals of the same age group, injuries were a smaller cause of death with maternal causes making an important contribution.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Roughly half of the total liver cancer mortality was attributed to hepatitis B infection, with smaller fractions due to hepatitis C and alcohol”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although at the draw level the same scalar was applied to all causes, the net effect of CoDCorrect was to change the size of more uncertain causes by more than is done for more certain causes, a desirable property.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Combining results for individual causes of death to generate final estimates—CoDCorrect algorithm
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the case of Thailand and Panama, however, UNAIDS 2012 revision estimates are considerably higher than 2010 estimates and are inconsistent with the all-cause mortality evidence.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ageing of the world’s population such that the mean age of the world increased from 26·1 years to 29·5 years contributed to an 11·2% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, a 39·2% increase in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 9·2% increase in injuries (table 1).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the age group 5–14 years, infectious diseases, HIV/tuberculosis (HIV/TB), injuries, and some cancers predominated, although overall mortality at these ages was low.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Declines in age-specific and sex-specific death rates have contributed to a 52·7% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, a 32·1% decrease in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 16·3% decrease in injury deaths.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The annual number of deaths from non-communicable diseases, by contrast, rose by just under 8 million, to 34·5 million, or two of every three deaths in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We identified 1557 survey years with sibling history data, and a further 52 household survey years or census years of data covering 61 countries.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other important shifts, with age, are evident—namely, a rising fraction of deaths in many age groups from diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, blood and endocrine disorders, and cancers, along with a decrease in the fraction due to chronic respiratory deaths in the middle-aged and older groups.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Completeness is often substantially different for child and adult deaths; in some regions such as Latin America, child completeness is usually lower than adult completeness, but other patterns are observed in Asia.40”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [40] Wang, 2012, Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet source
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite these efforts to enhance quality and comparability, the data from some sources seem completely implausible.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The third category, injuries, accounts for 5·1 million or 9·6%.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They used a much higher estimate of all-cause under-5 mortality and a higher cause fraction due to lower respiratory infection than we used.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [76] Watt, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Haemophilus influenza type b in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and rose for diabetes and chronic kidney disease.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“age-standardised death rates from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers fell by 8% between 1990 and 2010, despite a 47% increase in numbers of deaths”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Globally, although the number of deaths from injury rose by 24% since 1990, death rates decreased modestly”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In these GBD 2010 results, where the sum of cause-specific estimates must equal the number of deaths from the demographic analysis for each country-age-sex-year, the number of malaria deaths in 2010 was estimated to be about 5% less or about 1·17 million.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For women aged 15–49 years, we estimated 3·5 million deaths from all causes in 2010. Figure 3A shows that the leading cause was HIV/AIDS, followed by cardiovascular disease, maternal disorders, suicide, tuberculosis, breast and cervical cancer, and digestive diseases and cirrhosis.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“CHERG estimated 1·40 million deaths due to lower respiratory infection compared with 847 000 in our study; CHERG estimated 801 000 for diarrhoeal diseases versus 666 000 in the GBD 2010; for malaria CHERG estimated 564 000 versus 676 000 here.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The leading causes of death for men in this age group, however, were cardiovascular diseases, road traffic injuries, and HIV/AIDS, with other major causes including suicide and interpersonal violence.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“preterm events accounted for 29% of global neonatal deaths, with nearly equal shares for neonatal sepsis and neonatal encephalopathy—17% each.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the post-neonatal period (figure 2B), we estimated 2·0 million deaths. Nearly half of these deaths were due to three diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At both time periods, there was substantial variation across regions in the relative importance of different causes, with communicable diseases and related causes being much more important in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia than in north Africa, and vascular diseases and cancer predominating in most other regions.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we reported 173 000 deaths due to rotavirus in children younger than 5 years and 78 000 deaths in individuals older than 5 years in 2010”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our findings of 234 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010 and 520 000 in 1990”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings of 168 000 deaths due to pneumococcal lower respiratory infection in children younger than 5 years in 2010 and 381 000 in 1990”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Death rates for COPD and liver cirrhosis also decreased”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The key difference lies in how the case-detection rate in every country was estimated; WHO used locally informed expert consultation to assess both under-diagnosis and under-reporting whereas we used a statistical model to try and estimate the case detection rate.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They used a higher estimated fraction of deaths in children younger than 5 years due to lower respiratory infections than in our study, 27% and 18%, respectively.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Road injury was a remarkably consistent cause of YLLs; its lowest regional ranking is 19th in Oceania and it was in the top five causes in eight regions.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One million more deaths from injuries occurred in 2010 (5·1 million) than two decades earlier, a 24% increase”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The leading cause of YLLs globally was lower respiratory infections in 1990 and ischaemic heart disease in 2010; in this period, the total number of YLLs from lower respiratory infections decreased by 45% but increased 28% for ischaemic heart disease.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our finding of 184 000 (95% UI 154 053–219 456) in 2010 and 447 000 (385 717–506 594) in 1990”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deaths from intentional injuries increased for both self-harm and interpersonal violence.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Malaria was a leading global cause but a minor cause in most regions outside sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cirrhosis of the liver was the cause of a million deaths in 2010, 33% more than in 1990, roughly equally attributable to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and alcohol.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We estimate that in 2010 1·20 million deaths were due to tuberculosis, about 14% more than the WHO estimate of 1·05 million (2011 WHO TB Report).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Together, ischaemic heart disease and all forms of stroke killed an estimated 12·9 million people in 2010, a quarter of the global total, compared with one in five deaths worldwide 20 years earlier.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedn = 9- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“UIs varied widely across causes. Figure 7 shows the 95% UIs for YLLs for each cause in 2010, ordered by the mean rank of every cause. The two leading causes—ischaemic heart disease and lower respiratory infections—have nearly overlapping UIs. These two causes are separated by a substantial gap with the next highest ranked cause, stroke.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our findings suggest important decreases (20% or more) in age-standardised death rates from major vascular diseases, especially heart disease and strokes, for the world as whole, even though numbers of vascular disease deaths increased by a third to 15·6 million in 2010”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the top four causes of death in 1990 remain the top four in 2010, the change in numbers of deaths is noteworthy, with ischaemic heart disease and stroke increasing by 26–35% over the interval, but lower respiratory infections and COPD declining by 7–18%.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for some countries, such as Ecuador, our estimates, WHO estimates, and the cause of death data were in close alignment”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainSingle case- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and rising for transport injuries and, interestingly, from adverse effects of medical treatment.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“driven primarily by a 420 600 increase in road traffic deaths, which claimed 1·3 million lives in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our models also captured more of the temporal and spatial correlation structure in the cause of death data yielding quite different estimates than did the WHO where data were strong (eg, Japan and Thailand).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“these investigators used an estimate of 10·6 million deaths in children younger than 5 years from all causes for the year 2000, which contrasts with our estimate of 9·4 million and UNICEF’s estimate of 9·6 million.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Lung cancer increased from the 8th cause to the 5th cause in the two decades because of a 48% increase in absolute number of deaths.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the age group 1–4 years (figure 2C), we noted 2·0 million deaths distributed across a wider array of causes. The most important cause globally in this age group was malaria, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and nutritional deficiencies. These four causes accounted for 52·4% of deaths in this age group.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By 2010, substantial progress was achieved, even in Africa, in reducing YLLs from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes particularly, although these still accounted for three out of four premature deaths in Africa.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“CHERG estimating much higher fractions due to preterm birth complications and lower fractions due to sepsis and other disorders”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Breast cancer mortality rates fell by 15%, even though numbers of deaths from the disease increased by more than a third.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“During 1990–2010, direct deaths peaked at 496 400 in 1994 with a low in 2001 of 14 700 and 17 700 in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“given the substantial difference in modelling approaches, the results for 2010 between the two approaches were actually surprisingly close”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Cirrhosis rates vary greatly across countries, with Egypt having the highest level related to an iatrogenic epidemic of hepatitis C that began as early as the 1920s.101”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [101] Frank, 2000, The role of parenteral antischistosomal therapy in the spread of hepatitis C virus in Egypt, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“they reported undertaking a cross-validation study but no metrics of model performance were reported such as the coverage of their UIs or a measure of prediction error”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the MDG-related YLLs were declining at 2·0% per year, whereas the non-MDG related YLLs were increasing at 0·8% per year”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the 17 670 deaths related to direct conflict estimated for 2010. This number should be interpreted with great caution. First, in the ICD cause list, only direct deaths are assigned to this cause; 17 670 is not the total number of deaths related to conflict, which would include indirect deaths mediated through various mechanisms such as the destruction of health-care infrastructure.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Road deaths to pedestrians were the major cause, rising from 284 000 in 1990 to 461 000 in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“CHERG reported using vital registration data for 578 country-years between 1998 and 2009, whereas we used 1125 country-years for that period. They used 113 study years between 1980 and 2008; by contrast, we used 294 years.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“in their cross-validation study they left out 10% of the data at random; as shown in previous studies,23 this is the easiest task for prediction”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Lozano, 2011, Progress towards Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Regional detail shows road deaths in east Asia, south Asia, and eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa rapidly escalating over the past two decades, whereas in high-income areas with a history of road safety programmes such as western Europe and high-income North America, road deaths have decreased.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The total number of deaths due to hepatitis B in 2010 was estimated to be 786 000 and those due to hepatitis C 499 000.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They used multinomial logistic models to make estimates for six causes of death simultaneously, a method found to perform worse than modelling causes individually and then scaling to all-cause mortality (appendix pp 146–148).”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Because of the variety of data sources and their associated biases, cause of death assessments are inherently uncertain and subject to vigorous debate.6–8”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [6] Abouzahr, 2011, New estimates of maternal mortality and how to interpret them: choice or confusion?, Reprod Health Matters source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [7] Grassly, 2004, Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: the estimation and application of plausibility bounds, Sex Transm Infect source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Cooper, 1998, Disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa: what should we conclude in the absence of data?, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although results are reported in this Article at the regional level for 1990 and 2010, the cause of death analysis has been undertaken at the country level for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Population growth, increased average age of the world’s population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Interpretation
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Use of longer time series improves the performance of many types of estimation models; data from before 1980, however, are much sparser for developing countries so we restricted the analysis to 1980–2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over the 5-year duration of the GBD 2010, we sought to identify all published and unpublished data sources relevant to estimating causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By comparing with other sources such as vital registration data, we assessed whether police reports were likely to be complete and cover the entire country.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In some cases, however, time series estimation can be substantially affected by these outliers.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
plainstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We assessed completeness for under age 5 years by comparing registration data with survey and census data on child mortality.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Higher coverage suggests that UIs are too large and lower than 95% suggest UIs are too narrow.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because of stochastic fluctuation in death rates, we do not expect a good model to predict the trend observed in the data 100% of the time.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In the GBD 1990, major garbage codes were identified and simple algorithms proposed to redistribute these proportionately to various causes (called “target codes”) that were the likely underlying causes of death.49”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [49] Murray, 1996
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Murray and Lopez43 introduced the notion of “garbage codes” in the GBD 1990 and proposed methods to redistribute deaths assigned to garbage codes to probable underlying causes of death.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [43] Murray, 1996, Estimating causes of death: new methods and global and regional application for 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The sponsor of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Role of the funding source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The corresponding author had full access to all of the data in the study and the final responsibility to submit for publication.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Role of the funding source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because we had developed single-cause models, it was imperative as a final step to ensure that individual cause estimates summed to the all-cause mortality estimate for every age-sex-country-year group.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Combining results for individual causes of death to generate final estimates—CoDCorrect algorithm
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We re-ran cause of death models for the major causes of death in children younger than 5 years in five different ways: excluding all data with completeness lower than 30%, lower than 40%, lower than 50%, lower than 60%, and lower than 70%.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For models using the log of the death rate, either observations that record zero deaths are dropped or an arbitrary small number is substituted for zero observations; both approaches can lead to bias.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We assessed and enhanced data quality following six steps outlined in more detail here:”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Assessement and enhancement of data quality and comparability
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“CODEm was used to analyse maternal mortality, breast and cervical cancer mortality, and malaria mortality in published studies.22,25,31”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Hogan, 2010, Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980–2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, Lancet source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] Murray, 2012, Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis, Lancet source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [31] Forouzanfar, 2011, Breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Additionally, we included 21 site-years of data based on deaths in health facilities. However, we chose to only incorporate deaths due to injury from this source because of known bias.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Database development
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In this way, the out-of-sample predictive validity testing mimics the task required of a good cause of death model.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Watt and colleagues assumed that Hib in individuals older than 2 years does not cause death; the available observational data,81–84 however, show Hib mortality at all ages.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [81] Shibli, 2010, Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients in northern Israel, Isr Med Assoc J
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [82] Köksal, 2010, Etiological agents of community-acquired pneumonia in adult patients in Turkey; a multicentric, cross-sectional study, Tuberk Toraks
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [83] Maruyama, 2008, A prospective comparison of nursing home-acquired pneumonia with hospital-acquired pneumonia in non-intubated elderly, Respir Med source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [84] Maruyama, 2010, Community-acquired pneumonia and nursing home-acquired pneumonia in the very elderly patients, Respir Med source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Watt and colleagues76 published in 2009 for the year 2000, an estimate of 292 000 deaths”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [76] Watt, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Haemophilus influenza type b in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Higher numbers were probably reported by WHO for three reasons: higher all-cause global deaths in children younger than 5 years than currently estimated by UNICEF or the GBD 2010; a much higher fraction of deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed at the time to diarrhoea; and a higher fraction of diarrhoea attributed to rotavirus.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“claims from WHO of 453 000 rotavirus deaths in children younger than 5 years alone in 2008.74”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [74] 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plainn = 453,000- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because of both the huge heterogeneity of results and the variation in the number of pathogens tested across studies, great caution should be used in interpreting our findings on the diarrhoea aetiologies.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: Many diarrhoea pathogens can be cultured from the stool of individuals who do not have diarrhoea.
In the paper
“contrast sharply with the 826 000 for the year 2000 published by O’Brien and colleagues.35”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The 2005 WHO report estimated that abortion caused only 8% of maternal deaths but 14% in the 2008 study.16”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [16] Mathers, 2008
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Death rates from forces of nature also massively increased (by 336%) comparing 1990 to 2010 because of the earthquake in Haiti in 2010.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These observational data suggest substantial variation across regions; for example, pneumococcus might be less common in south Asia.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis and that of WHO use fundamentally different methods but do not yield, at the aggregate level, substantially different conclusions.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We used both the trials and observational data to generate different breakdowns by pathogen by region giving extra weight to the trials; our findings, however, still showed variation by region and age.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the deaths due to maternal causes reported here are after the application of the CoDCorrect algorithm, which is a strength of the comprehensive burden of disease approach. The global number of deaths due to maternal causes was reduced by 9·8% through the application of CoDCorrect.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV, so the extent to which RSV is a major cause of post-neonatal lower respiratory deaths needs the most attention.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Studies, however, vary markedly in their sampling, culturing, and identification protocols, which might also account for some heterogeneity.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Differences must arise from any or all of the following: the datasets used, the adjustments to the data, and the modelling strategies.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In GBD 2010, our estimates of the fraction of maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS come from a review and statistical analysis of available data that provide a detailed breakdown of maternal deaths.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Their model structure does not allow for spatial or temporal patterns in the residuals, probably substantially reducing model performance.22”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Hogan, 2010, Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980–2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, Lancet source
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The differential treatment of some causes and not others in the modelling strategy might also have caused distortions in the results.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We were not able to develop uncertainty distributions around garbage code redistribution algorithms; to the extent that this is poorly known, our UIs for some causes might be underestimated.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If all deaths related to these diseases were directly counted in the main GBD 2010 cause list, hepatitis B would be the 15th ranked cause of death and hepatitis C would be the 25th ranked cause of death.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Where natural history models have been used, these approaches potentially will tend to yield higher estimates than those using more empirical strategies such as CODEm.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our use of CODEm for most major causes of death means that our UIs have in most cases been shown to be valid, but for causes where we have had to use other methods such as negative binomial, fixed proportion, or natural history models, the UIs have not been independently validated.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for some causes of death such as kidney cancer, poisonings, or paralytic ileus, only weak covariates have been identified that explain the spatial or temporal variation in the cause. Inevitably, model estimates for these causes will have wide UIs.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“data on cause of death, even in settings with medical certification, might not always accurately capture the underlying cause of death. Results from autopsy studies104–106 have shown that medically certified causes of death might be incorrect.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [104] Roulson, 2005, Discrepancies between clinical and autopsy diagnosis and the value of post mortem histology; a meta-analysis and review, Histopathology source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [105] Sonderegger-Iseli, 2000, Diagnostic errors in three medical eras: a necropsy study, Lancet source
- Not matchedcites [106]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Verbal autopsy cause fractions are representative of the study population.
“In the absence of evidence on the cause of death pattern in recalled versus not recalled deaths, we have made the simplifying assumption that verbal autopsy cause fractions are representative of the study population; the CHERG analyses of verbal autopsy data make the same assumption.19,20”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A larger sum of deaths across individual causes is more likely to be associated with a higher draw of the all-cause mortality level.
“We assumed that if the sum of deaths from each individual cause was large, it was more likely to be associated with a higher draw of the all-cause mortality level.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Many diarrhoea pathogens can be cultured from the stool of individuals who do not have diarrhoea.
“For diarrhoea, many pathogens can be cultured from the stool of individuals without diarrhoea.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Rotavirus remains an important cause of death in many countries.
“Because rotavirus remains an important cause of death in many countries”
The paper relies on this without support.
In many observational studies, no pathogen is identified in a substantial fraction of cases.
“In many observational studies, no pathogen is identified in a substantial fraction of cases.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The case-fatality rate for severe respiratory infections varies substantially by pathogen, confounding analysis.
“the case-fatality rate is likely to vary substantially by pathogen, which confounds the analysis”
The paper relies on this without support.
Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV.
“Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV”
The paper relies on this without support.
Public health priorities everywhere are changing, or soon will be, as large and avoidable causes of disease burden become more common with development.
“Public health priorities everywhere are changing, or soon will be, as large and avoidable causes of disease burden become more common with development.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Large differences also exist for cause-specific mortality, especially in relation to diarrhoea and lower respiratory tract infections (which can be affected by both of these risks) versus malaria (which is not).176”
From A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2012) · cites this paper as [176]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“The GBD 2010 study estimates of deaths due to E. histolytica, Cryptosporidium spp., and Campylobacter spp. were 10 times, 4 times and 3 times greater, respectively, than the FERG estimates [25].”
From World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 22 Foodborne Bacterial, Protozoal, and Viral Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis. (2015) · cites this paper as [25]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“In 2020, IHD and depression are expected to be among the top contributors to the disease-burden worldwide.”
From Efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a therapist-assisted web-based intervention for depression and anxiety in patients with ischemic heart disease attending cardiac rehabilitation [eMindYourHeart trial]: a randomised controlled trial protocol (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2010) ranked stroke as the second most common cause of death1”
From Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2014) · cites this paper as [1]
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Several prior reports have extensively reviewed the evidence for CVD effects of dietary sodium, including strengths and limitations of various studies and implications for causality.[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]”
From Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes (2014) · cites this paper as [20]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
In the citing paper
“This estimate is substantially larger than those reported by UNICEF176 and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation177 at the time of Black and colleagues' publication.”
In the citing paper
“These chronic diseases were chosen based on their high global burden [15].”
From Impact of mHealth chronic disease management on treatment adherence and patient outcomes: a systematic review (2015) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“Furthermore, in GBD 2015, the prevalence of dementia varied among 187 countries by a factor of three, whereas dementia death rates varied by more than 20 times.13”
From Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (2017) · cites this paper as [13]
In the citing paper
“The global shift toward NCDs for both sexes has been driven by the effects of population growth, ageing, and the epidemiological transition;3,25”
In the citing paper
“Although the estimates from the GBD 2010 Study showed that ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the two greatest causes of death between 1990 and 2010,1,8”
From Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2014) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Worldwide in 2010, roughly 10% of the 52 769 700 deaths1 and about 4% of the 2 490 385 000 DALYs2 were due to stroke.”
From Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2014) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to individual-level risk of coronary artery disease.”
From Genetic Risk, Adherence to a Healthy Lifestyle, and Coronary Disease (2016) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“For these regions, it was necessary to predict estimates using models, relying on covariates and verbal autopsy.”
From The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (2016) · cites this paper as [13]
In the citing paper
“According to the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, liver cirrhosis caused 31 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), or 1.2% of global DALYs, in 2010, and one million deaths, or 2% of all deaths worldwide in that year [1,2].”
From Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
In the citing paper
“According to the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, liver cirrhosis caused 31 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), or 1.2% of global DALYs, in 2010, and one million deaths, or 2% of all deaths worldwide in that year [1,2].”
From Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
In the citing paper
“case fatality rates in Latin America have either remained unchanged or may have increased between 1990 and 2010 (estimated from analysis of hospital data) [2].”
From Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
In the citing paper
“Globally, the case fatality rate of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (estimated from an analysis of hospital data) remained unchanged, at about 20% (95% uncertainty interval: 15 to 26) in 1990 and 22% (16 to 28) in 2010, even in more developed countries [1,2,26].”
From Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
In the citing paper
“Previously reported GBD estimated annual deaths for skin disease included 66.5 Â 10 3 from bacterial skin infections such as cellulitis and 30.6 Â 10 3 from NMSC (Lozano et al., 2012).”
From The Global Burden of Skin Disease in 2010: An Analysis of the Prevalence and Impact of Skin Conditions (2014) · cites this paper as Lozano et al., 2012
In the citing paper
“Recommended maximum intakes in major dietary guidelines ranged from 1200 to 2400 mg/d.[19][20][21][22][23][24]”
From Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes (2014) · cites this paper as [20]
In the citing paper
“Major behavioural risk factors such as obesity, smoking, excess alcohol consumption and poor dietary patterns account for large shares of the burden of morbidity and mortality, both nationally and globally.1–3”
From Major health-related behaviours and mental well-being in the general population: the Health Survey for England (2014) · cites this paper as [2]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Methods
“For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
“For 27 causes, the number of deaths recorded in the database was too low to generate stable estimates of out-of-sample predictive validity. For these causes, we developed negative binomial models using plausible covariates.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
“Proportions were computed using all available data in the database and were fixed over time, but, depending on data density, allowed to vary by region, age, or sex.”
§ Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Modelling of individual causes of death
“Opioid, cocaine, amphetamine, and other drug use disorders varied by region and year.”
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Foreman, K., Lim, S., Shibuya, K., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Adair, T., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, S. Y., AlMazroa, M. A., Alvarado, M., Anderson, H. R., Anderson, L. M., Andrews, K. G., Atkinson, C., Baddour, L. M., Barker-Collo, S., Bartels, D. H., Bell, M. L., Benjamin, E. J., Bennett, D., Bhalla, K., Bikbov, B., Abdulhak, A. B., Birbeck, G., Blyth, F., Bolliger, I., Boufous, S., Bucello, C., Burch, M., Burney, P., Carapetis, J., Chen, H., Chou, D., Chugh, S. S., Coffeng, L. E., Colan, S. D., Colquhoun, S., Colson, K. E., Condon, J., Connor, M. D., Cooper, L. T., Corriere, M., Cortinovis, M., de Vaccaro, K. C., Couser, W., Cowie, B. C., Criqui, M. H., Cross, M., Dabhadkar, K. C., Dahodwala, N., De Leo, D., Degenhardt, L., Delossantos, A., Denenberg, J., Des Jarlais, D. C., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Duber, H., Ebel, B., Erwin, P. J., Espindola, P., Ezzati, M., Feigin, V., Flaxman, A. D., Forouzanfar, M. H., Fowkes, F. G. R., Franklin, R., Fransen, M., Freeman, M. K., Gabriel, S. E., Gakidou, E., Gaspari, F., Gillum, R. F., Gonzalez-Medina, D., Halasa, Y. A., Haring, D., Harrison, J. E., Havmoeller, R., Hay, R. J., Hoen, B., Hotez, P. J., Hoy, D., Jacobsen, K. H., James, S. L., Jasrasaria, R., Jayaraman, S., Johns, N., Karthikeyan, G., Kassebaum, N., Keren, A., Khoo, J.-P., Knowlton, L. M., Kobusingye, O., Koranteng, A., Krishnamurthi, R., Lipnick, M., Lipshultz, S. E., Ohno, S. L., Mabweijano, J., MacIntyre, M. F., Mallinger, L., March, L., Marks, G. B., Marks, R., Matsumori, A., Matzopoulos, R., Mayosi, B. M., McAnulty, J. H., McDermott, M. M., McGrath, J., Memish, Z. A., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Michaud, C., Miller, M., Miller, T. R., Mock, C., Mocumbi, A. O., Mokdad, A. A., Moran, A., Mulholland, K., Nair, M. N., Naldi, L., Narayan, K. M. V., Nasseri, K., Norman, P., O'Donnell, M., Omer, S. B., Ortblad, K., Osborne, R., Ozgediz, D., Pahari, B., Pandian, J. D., Rivero, A. P., Padilla, R. P., Perez-Ruiz, F., Perico, N., Phillips, D., Pierce, K., Pope, C. A., Porrini, E., Pourmalek, F., Raju, M., Ranganathan, D., Rehm, J. T., Rein, D. B., Remuzzi, G., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., De León, F. R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Rushton, L., Sacco, R. L., Salomon, J. A., Sampson, U., Sanman, E., Schwebel, D. C., Segui-Gomez, M., Shepard, D. S., Singh, D., Singleton, J., Sliwa, K., Smith, E., Steer, A., Taylor, J. A., Thomas, B., Tleyjeh, I. M., Towbin, J. A., Truelsen, T., Undurraga, E. A., Venketasubramanian, N., Vijayakumar, L., Vos, T., Wagner, G. R., Wang, M., Wang, W., Watt, K., Weinstock, M. A., Weintraub, R., Wilkinson, J. D., Woolf, A. D., Wulf, S., Yeh, P.-H., Yip, P., Zabetian, A., Zheng, Z.-J., Lopez, A. D., & Murray, C. J.
- Affiliations
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Hôpital Universitaire Dupuytren (FR)
- The University of Texas at San Antonio (US)
- Sanjay Gandhi Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences (IN)
- Ministry of Health (SA)
- St George's, University of London (GB)
- University of Washington (US)
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Harvard University (US)
- Yale University (US)
- Boston University (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Russian University of Medicine (RU)
- Michigan State University (US)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Great Ormond Street Hospital (GB)
- The Kids Research Institute Australia (AU)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (US)
- Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (US)
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Menzies School of Health Research (AU)
- National Health Service Scotland (GB)
- Loyola University Chicago (US)
- Wake Forest University (US)
- Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research (IT)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Emory University (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (AU)
- University of Peradeniya (LK)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Hospital Maciel (UY)
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health (GB)
- Auckland University of Technology (NZ)
- Royal Life Saving Society - Australia (AU)
- Howard University (US)
- Brandeis University (US)
- Flinders University (AU)
- King's College London (GB)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Besançon (FR)
- Baylor College of Medicine (US)
- Monash University (AU)
- George Mason University (US)
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences (IN)
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem (IL)
- University of South Africa (ZA)
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (GH)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology (JP)
- South African Medical Research Council (ZA)
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- Legacy Health (US)
- Northwestern University (US)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- Alfaisal University (SA)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- China Medical Board (US)
- Pacific Institute For Research and Evaluation (US)
- Eduardo Mondlane University (MZ)
- Columbia University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Centro Studi GISED (IT)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Ollscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway (IE)
- Deakin University (AU)
- B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences (NP)
- Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias (MX)
- Brigham Young University (US)
- Hospital Universitario de Canarias (ES)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of Missouri (US)
- Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CA)
- University of Chicago (US)
- Vanderbilt University (US)
- University of Alabama at Birmingham (US)
- Queen's Medical Center (US)
- Northern Sydney Local Health District (AU)
- Drexel University (US)
- King Fahd Medical City (SA)
- Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center (US)
- Herlev Hospital (DK)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (US)
- Capital Medical University (CN)
- James Cook University (AU)
- Brown University (US)
- Royal Children's Hospital (AU)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Corresponding author
- Murray, Christopher JL
- ORCID
- Lozano, Rafael
- Naghavi, Mohsen
- Lim, Stephen
- Shibuya, Kenji
- Aboyans, Victor
- Abraham, Jerry
- Aggarwal, Rakesh
- Alvarado, Miriam
- Andrews, Kathryn G
- Baddour, Larry M
- Barker-Collo, Suzanne
- Bell, Michelle L
- Benjamin, Emelia J
- Bennett, Derrick
- Bikbov, Boris
- Birbeck, Gretchen
- Blyth, Fiona
- Bolliger, Ian
- Boufous, Soufiane
- Burch, Michael
- Burney, Peter
- Carapetis, Jonathan
- Chen, Honglei
- Chugh, Sumeet S
- Coffeng, Luc E
- Colan, Steven D
- Colquhoun, Samantha
- Condon, John
- Cooper, Leslie T
- Corriere, Matthew
- Criqui, Michael H
- Cross, Marita
- Dahodwala, Nabila
- Degenhardt, Louisa
- Dharmaratne, Samath D
- Driscoll, Tim
- Duber, Herbert
- Ebel, Beth
- Feigin, Valery
- Flaxman, Abraham D
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
- Franklin, Richard
- Fransen, Marlene
- Gakidou, Emmanuela
- Gaspari, Flavio
- Harrison, James E
- Hay, Roderick J
- Hoen, Bruno
- Hotez, Peter J
- Jacobsen, Kathryn H
- Jasrasaria, Rashmi
- Jayaraman, Sudha
- Johns, Nicole
- Karthikeyan, Ganesan
- Kassebaum, Nicholas
- Keren, Andre
- Khoo, Jon-Paul
- Knowlton, Lisa Marie
- Kobusingye, Olive
- Koranteng, Adofo
- Krishnamurthi, Rita
- Lipnick, Michael
- Lipshultz, Steven E
- March, Lyn
- Marks, Guy B
- Matzopoulos, Richard
- Mayosi, Bongani M
- McDermott, Mary M
- McGrath, John
- Memish, Ziad A
- Mensah, George A
- Merriman, Tony R
- Miller, Ted R
- Mock, Charles
- Mocumbi, Ana Olga
- Naldi, Luigi
- Narayan, K M Venkat
- O'Donnell, Martin
- Omer, Saad B
- Ortblad, Katrina
- Osborne, Richard
- Pahari, Bishnu
- Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai
- Perico, Norberto
- Phillips, David
- Pope, C Arden
- Porrini, Esteban
- Pourmalek, Farshad
- Ranganathan, Dharani
- Rehm, Jürgen T
- Rein, David B
- Rivara, Frederick P
- Roberts, Thomas
- Rosenfeld, Lisa C
- Salomon, Joshua A
- Schwebel, David C
- Shepard, Donald S
- Sliwa, Karen
- Smith, Emma
- Steer, Andrew
- Tleyjeh, Imad M
- Undurraga, Eduardo A
- Venketasubramanian, N
- Vos, Theo
- Wagner, Gregory R
- Wang, Mengru
- Wang, Wenzhi
- Watt, Kerrianne
- Weinstock, Martin A
- Wilkinson, James D
- Woolf, Anthony D
- Yip, Paul
- Murray, Christopher JL
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-12
- Volume
- 380
- Issue
- 9859
- Pages
- 2095-2128
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC10790329
- OpenAlex
- W2125065061
- Cited by
- 14,070
- References
- 110
- Citations by year
- 2026: 239 · 2025: 450 · 2024: 639 · 2023: 719 · 2022: 883 · 2021: 1132 · 2020: 1235 · 2019: 1180 · 2018: 1298 · 2017: 1479 · 2016: 1411 · 2015: 1498 · 2014: 1202 · 2013: 665 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 2695.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion, public-domain)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Tuwhera (Auckland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion)
- Swinburne figshare (Swinburne University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
- PepsiCo
- World Health Organization
- Vanderbilt University
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- University of New South Wales
- University of Sydney
- Vetenskapsrådet
- H. Lundbeck A/S
- World Heart Federation
- Lomonosov Moscow State University
- National Institutes of Health
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Medical Research Council
- National Health and Medical Research Council
- Health Research Council of New Zealand
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (22390130)
- National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre
- National Institute on Aging (K23AG034236)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K08HL089675)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- cause-specific mortality, causes of death, global burden of disease, mortality trends, age and sex differences in mortality, cause of death estimation, verbal autopsy, natural history model, uncertainty intervals
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Sex Factors, Global Health, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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