COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
Open accessAbstract
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3-4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.
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COVID-19 epidemics place intense pressure on national health systems, with demand for intensive care beds and mechanical ventilators rapidly outstripping availability even in relatively highly resourced settings.
“The experience in countries to date has emphasized the intense pressure that a COVID-19 epidemic places on national health systems, with demand for intensive care beds and mechanical ventilators rapidly outstripping their availability, even in relatively highly resourced settings (2).”
From The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries (2020) · cites this paper as [2]
Widespread heterogeneity exists in the accuracy and completeness of reported deaths from covid-19 across countries and jurisdictions.
“However, widespread heterogeneity exists in the accuracy and completeness of reported deaths from covid-19 across countries and jurisdictions.”
From Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
Measures taken to handle the covid-19 pandemic varied substantially across countries.
“Measures taken to handle the covid-19 pandemic have also varied substantially across countries.”
From Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
The reliable ascertainment of deaths from covid-19 depends on widespread testing for covid-19 and on the methods used to assign cause of death, both of which vary between countries.
“The reliable ascertainment of deaths from covid-19 depends on widespread testing for covid-19 and on the methods used to assign cause of death, both of which vary between countries.”
From Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
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“The spread of COVID-19 has taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks, including Israel [2, 3].”
Background
- Authors
- Remuzzi, A., & Remuzzi, G.
- Affiliations
- University of Bergamo (IT)
- Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Remuzzi, Andrea
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-04
- Volume
- 395
- Issue
- 10231
- Pages
- 1225-1228
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC7102589
- OpenAlex
- W3011242477
- Cited by
- 3,119
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 113 · 2023: 199 · 2022: 383 · 2021: 824 · 2020: 1529 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 116.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Aisberg (University of Bergamo) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › COVID-19 and healthcare impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, Italy, intensive care capacity, hospital bed allocation, exponential growth, social distancing, health system preparedness, resource allocation, pandemic response
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Female, Health Policy, Hospital Bed Capacity, Humans, Intensive Care Units, Italy, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Pneumonia, Viral, Respiration, Artificial, Global Health, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics
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