SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is at Herd Immunity in the Majority Segment of the Population of Qatar
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Background: Qatar experienced a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that disproportionately affected the craft and manual worker (CMW) population, who comprise 60% of the total population. This study aimed to assess ever and/or current infection prevalence in this population. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted during July 26 to September 09, 2020, to assess both anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity through serological testing and current infection positivity through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Associations with antibody and PCR positivity were identified through regression analyses. Results: The study included 2641 participants, 69.3% of whom were <40 years of age. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 55.3% (95% CI, 53.3%–57.3%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, educational attainment, occupation, and previous infection diagnosis. PCR positivity was 11.3% (95% CI, 9.9%–12.8%) and was significantly associated with nationality, geographic location, occupation, contact with an infected person, and reporting 2 or more symptoms. Infection positivity (antibody and/or PCR positive) was 60.6% (95% CI, 58.6%–62.5%). The proportion of antibody-positive CMWs who had a prior SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was 9.3% (95% CI, 7.9%–11.0%). Only seven infections were ever severe, and only 1 was ever critical—an infection severity rate of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2%–1.0%). Conclusions: Six in every 10 CMWs in Qatar have been infected, suggestive of reaching the herd immunity threshold. Infection severity was low, with only 1 in every 200 infections progressing to be severe or critical. Only 1 in every 10 infections had been previously diagnosed, which is suggestive of mostly asymptomatic or mild infections.
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Cases and controls were exact-matched by sex, 10-year-age group, nationality, and calendar week of PCR test to control for established differences in risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar.
“Cases (persons infected with BA.1, BA.2, or any-Omicron-subvariant) and controls (uninfected persons) were exact-matched by sex, 10-year-age group, nationality, and calendar week of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to control for established differences in the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar15–19.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [18]
Earlier seroprevalence studies conducted in the same population have shown that a considerable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections went undocumented.
“Earlier seroprevalence studies conducted in the same population have shown that a considerable proportion of infections went undocumented17–19.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [18]
Matching was implemented to control for established differences in the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar.
“Matching was implemented to control for established differences in the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar15–19.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [18]
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- Authors
- Al-Thani, M. H., Farag, E., Bertollini, R., Al Romaihi, H. E., Abdeen, S., Abdelkarim, A., Daraan, F., Elhaj Ismail, A. I. H., Mostafa, N., Sahl, M., Suliman, J., Tayar, E., Kasem, H. A., Agsalog, M. J. A., Akkarathodiyil, B. K., Alkhalaf, A. A., Alakshar, M. M. M. H., Al-Qahtani, A. A. A. H., Al-Shedifat, M. H. A., Ansari, A., Ataalla, A. A., Chougule, S., Gopinathan, A. K. K. V., Poolakundan, F. J., Ranbhise, S. U., Saefan, S. M. A., Thaivalappil, M. M., Thoyalil, A. S., Umar, I. M., Al Kanaani, Z., Al Khal, A., Al Kuwari, E., Butt, A. A., Coyle, P., Jeremijenko, A., Kaleeckal, A. H., Latif, A. N., Shaik, R. M., Abdul Rahim, H. F., Yassine, H. M., Nasrallah, G. K., Al Kuwari, M. G., Chaghoury, O., Chemaitelly, H., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Craft and Manual Workers Seroprevalence Study Group, Aerattel, S. T., Ansari, F., Babu, B. J., Bakari, A. O., Basheer, F. K., Cherikkal, M. J., Chonari, M. R., Darwish, A. S., Cruz, A. D., Dela Cruz, V. Z., Del Carmen, M. W., Deomampo, R. P., Gopi, S., Hortaleza, D. J. R. O., Joseph, R., Kadar, V., Kalathil, A. K. A., Kandi, B. C., Kaniyankandi, M. M. T., Karimparukuzhiyil, K., Kurane, D. G., Kurungott, M., Lumibao, J. R. C., Mahmoud, W., Malik, R. A., Maxino, J. A., Moosakutty, N. T., Nawabjahn, H. N., Orio, R. E., Osman, M. F., Ottappilakkool, M. H., Pattakunninmel, V., Peedika, N. P., Puthiyaveettil, S. T., Raghavan, A., Ramachandran, R., Sainudheen, A. S., Sassendran, K., Soosai, J. M. M., Sseri, H. P., Vallapil, D., Venzuela, P. J. S., Abdoon, R. A. M., Ahmed, H. S. M., Mahmoud, A. M. A., Gismelkhalig, O. O. E., Shihata, F., Ali, K. M., & Alsallama, F. A. A. F.
- Affiliations
- Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar
- Ministry of Public Health (QA)
- Hamad Medical Corporation (QA)
- Qatar Red Crescent Society, Doha, Qatar
- Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Cornell University (US)
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
- Qatar University (QA)
- Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar
- Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar (QA)
- Corresponding author
- Abu-Raddad, Laith J
- ORCID
- Venue
- Open Forum Infectious Diseases
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2021-05-02
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- ofab221-ofab221
- ISSN
- 2328-8957 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8135898
- OpenAlex
- W3158925955
- Cited by
- 85
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 5.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Open Forum Infectious Diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Qatar University QSpace (Qatar University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Ministry of Public Health
- Hamad Medical Corporation
- Biomedical Research Program
- Biostatistics
- Epidemiology
- Biomathematics Research Core
- Clinical Research Core
- Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, herd immunity, seroprevalence, infection prevalence, infection severity, asymptomatic infection, occupational exposure, Qatar
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