Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development.
Open accessAbstract
The anomalously strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector. Here we show that the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo‐Pacific) is a key parameter in controlling the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, an important quantity for hurricane activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to that of the Indo‐Pacific during the most recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and is thus responsible for the strong hurricane activity observed. In 2006, however, the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans is much reduced, which explains the relatively weak hurricane season.
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There is strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity, but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known.
“There is also strong evidence linking decadal-multidecadal tropical Atlantic SST variability to hurricane activity (Goldenberg et al., 2001;Latif et al., 2007;Balaguru et al., 2018), but the drivers of this SST variability are not well known (Yang, 1999;Chang et al., 2000;Tanimoto and Xie, 2002;Evan et al., 2011;Booth et al., 2012;Clement et al., 2015).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Latif et al., 2007
Climate models predict increases in wind shear in some portions of the Atlantic hurricane development region, which would act to decrease overall Atlantic storm activity.
“Climate models predict increases in wind shear in some portions of the Atlantic hurricane development region (Latif et al., 2007;Vecchi and Soden, 2007), which would, however, act to decrease overall Atlantic storm activity.”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Latif et al., 2007
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Ayala, J. J. H., & Méndez‐Tejeda, R. (2022) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos13121945 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Zhao, M., Held, I. M., Lin, S.-J., Gabriel, & Vecchi, A. (2012) · Cited by 13 · see citing works
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Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario
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- Authors
- Latif, M., Keenlyside, N., & Bader, J.
- Affiliations
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-01
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1999546511
- Cited by
- 139
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 8.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- oceanrep.geomar.de
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, global warming, North Atlantic warming, tropical ocean warming
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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