The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States
Open accessAbstract
We investigate the effects on U.S. ozone air quality from 2000–2050 global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) driven by meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM). We follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario and separate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions through sensitivity simulations. The 2000–2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions reduce the U.S. summer daily maximum 8‐hour ozone by 2–15 ppb, but climate change causes a 2–5 ppb positive offset over the Midwest and northeastern United States, partly driven by decreased ventilation from convection and frontal passages. Ozone pollution episodes are far more affected by climate change than mean values, with effects exceeding 10 ppb in the Midwest and northeast. We find that ozone air quality in the southeast is insensitive to climate change, reflecting compensating effects from changes in isoprene emission and air pollution meteorology. We define a “climate change penalty” as the additional emission controls necessary to meet a given ozone air quality target. We find that a 50% reduction in U.S. NO x emissions is needed in the 2050 climate to reach the same target in the Midwest as a 40% reduction in the 2000 climate. Emission controls reduce the magnitude of this climate change penalty and can even turn it into a climate benefit in some regions.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,383
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Cooper, R. N., Houghton, J. T., McCarthy, J. J., & Metz, B. (2002) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20033020 · Cited by 12,889
(2007) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 9,612
Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
Change, I. P. O. C. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511546013 · Cited by 7,729
A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions
Guenther, A., Hewitt, C. N., Erickson, D., Fall, R., Geron, C., Graedel, T., Harley, P., Klinger, L., Lerdau, M., Mckay, W. A., et al. (1995) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/94jd02950 · Cited by 4,169
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J. M., Davis, G. F., de Vries, B. J. M., Fenhann, J. V., Gaffin, S. R., Gregory, K., Griibler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., et al. (2000) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 3,423
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02300 · Cited by 2,781
Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca, R. M., Logan, J. A., Field, B. D., Fiore, A. M., Li, Q., Liu, H. Y., Mickley, L. J., & Schultz, M. G. (2001) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd000807 · Cited by 2,486
Self-citationExpansion of the Hadley cell under global warming
Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A., & Reichler, T. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl028443 · Cited by 1,219
Multimodel ensemble simulations of present‐day and near‐future tropospheric ozone
Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Ellingsen, K., van Noije, T. P. C., Wild, O., Zeng, G., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bell, N., et al. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006338 · Cited by 1,198
Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms
Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Russell, G., Stone, P., Fung, I., Ruedy, R., & Lerner, J. (1984) · Geophysical Monograph Series · doi:10.1029/gm029p0130 · Cited by 1,131
Self-citationPark, R. J., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Yantosca, R. M., & Chin, M. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2003jd004473 · Cited by 987
Self-citationGlobal climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three‐dimensional model
Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., & Stone, P. (1988) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jd093id08p09341 · Cited by 980
Self-citationA simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions
Price, C., & Rind, D. (1992) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/92jd00719 · Cited by 850
Self-citationAtmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases
Ehhalt, D. H., Prather, M. J., Dentener, F. J., Derwent, R. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Holland, E. A., Isaksen, I. S. A., Katima, J. H. Y., Kirchhoff, V. W. J. H., Matson, P. A., et al. (2001) · Maryland Shared Open Access Repository (USMAI Consortium) · doi:10.13016/m2vavr-tjxr · Cited by 747
Self-citationThe sensitivity of ozone to nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in regional ozone episodes
Sillman, S., Logan, J. A., & Wofsy, S. C. (1990) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jd095id02p01837 · Cited by 687
Global simulation of tropospheric O3‐NOx‐hydrocarbon chemistry: 1. Model formulation
Wang, Y., Jacob, D. J., & Logan, J. A. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/98jd00158 · Cited by 568
Self-citationStratospheric ozone in 3‐D models: A simple chemistry and the cross‐tropopause flux
McLinden, C. A., Olsen, S. C., Hannegan, B., Wild, O., Prather, M. J., & Sundet, J. (2000) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2000jd900124 · Cited by 501
On the nonlinearity of the tropospheric ozone production
Lin, X., Trainer, M., & Liu, S. C. (1988) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/jd093id12p15879 · Cited by 500
Effect of rising Asian emissions on surface ozone in the United States
Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., & Murti, P. P. (1999) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl900450 · Cited by 433
Self-citationFiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Bey, I., Yantosca, R. M., Field, B. D., Fusco, A. C., & Wilkinson, J. G. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd000982 · Cited by 394
Self-citationVertical distributions of lightning NOx for use in regional and global chemical transport models
Pickering, K. E., Wang, Y., Tao, W., Price, C., & Müller, J. (1998) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/98jd02651 · Cited by 391
Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Cyclone Frequency and Intensity
McCabe, G. J., Clark, M. P., & Serreze, M. C. (2001) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2763:tinhsc>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 387
Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments
Sillman, S., & Samson, P. J. (1995) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/94jd02146 · Cited by 371
Evans, M. J., & Jacob, D. J. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl022469 · Cited by 345
Self-citationClimate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Lacis, A., Koch, D., Tegen, I., Hall, T., Shindell, D., Santer, B., et al. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd001143 · Cited by 345
Self-citationIncreased CO2 uncouples growth from isoprene emission in an agriforest ecosystem
Rosenstiel, T. N., Potosnak, M. J., Griffin, K. L., Fall, R., & Monson, R. K. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01312 · Cited by 329
Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?
Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Yantosca, R. M., & Rind, D. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd007801 · Cited by 324
Self-citationPoisson, N., Kanakidou, M., & Crutzen, P. J. (2000) · Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry · doi:10.1023/a:1006300616544 · Cited by 303
Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane
Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Streets, D. G., Fernandes, S. D., & Jang, C. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2002gl015601 · Cited by 287
Self-citationDentener, F., Stevenson, D., Cofala, J., Mechler, R., Amann, M., Bergamaschi, P., Raes, F., & Derwent, R. (2005) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-5-1731-2005 · Cited by 277
Hudman, R. C., Jacob, D. J., Turquety, S., Leibensperger, E. M., Murray, L. T., Wu, S., Gilliland, A. B., Avery, M., Bertram, T. H., Brune, W., et al. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd007912 · Cited by 261
Self-citationFactors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere
Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Gardner, G. M., Yevich, R. M., Spivakovsky, C. M., Wofsy, S. C., Sillman, S., & Prather, M. J. (1993) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/98jd01224 · Cited by 254
Self-citationHogrefe, C., Lynn, B., Civerolo, K., Ku, J. ‐., Rosenthal, J., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R., Gaffin, S., Knowlton, K., & Kinney, P. L. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd004690 · Cited by 252
Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States
Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., & Rind, D. (2004) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2004gl021216 · Cited by 249
Self-citationLambert, S. J., & Fyfe, J. C. (2006) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0110-3 · Cited by 224
On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions
Streets, D. G., Bond, T. C., Lee, T., & Jang, C. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd004902 · Cited by 218
Self-citationWill moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?
Del Genio, A. D., Yao, M., & Jonas, J. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl030525 · Cited by 216
Effect of Climate Change on Isoprene Emissions and Surface Ozone Levels
Sanderson, M. G., Jones, C. D., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., & Derwent, R. G. (2003) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2003gl017642 · Cited by 216
How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States?
Murazaki, K., & Hess, P. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd005873 · Cited by 216
Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States
Horowitz, L. W., Fiore, A. M., Milly, G. P., Cohen, R. C., Perring, A., Wooldridge, P. J., Hess, P. G., Emmons, L. K., & Lamarque, J. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd007747 · Cited by 210
Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy
Fiore, A., Jacob, D. J., Liu, H., Yantosca, R. M., Fairlie, T. D., & Li, Q. (2003) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2003jd003855 · Cited by 208
Self-citationTagaris, E., Manomaiphiboon, K., Liao, K., Leung, L. R., Woo, J., He, S., Amar, P., & Russell, A. G. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2006jd008262 · Cited by 202
Hudman, R. C., Jacob, D. J., Cooper, O. R., Evans, M. J., Heald, C. L., Park, R. J., Fehsenfeld, F., Flocke, F., Holloway, J., Hübler, G., et al. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd004974 · Cited by 197
Self-citationSensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study
Dawson, J. P., Adams, P. J., & Pandis, S. N. (2007) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.10.033 · Cited by 192
Martin, R. V., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Bey, I., Yantosca, R. M., Staudt, A. C., Li, Q., Fiore, A. M., Duncan, B. N., Liu, H., et al. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd001480 · Cited by 183
Self-citationRacherla, P. N., & Adams, P. J. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006939 · Cited by 175
Fiore, A. M., Horowitz, L. W., Purves, D. W., Levy, H., Evans, M. J., Wang, Y., Li, Q., & Yantosca, R. M. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd005485 · Cited by 174
Li, Q., Jacob, D. J., Park, R., Wang, Y., Heald, C. L., Hudman, R., Yantosca, R. M., Martin, R. V., & Evans, M. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd005039 · Cited by 169
Self-citationPotential regional climate change and implications to U.S. air quality
Leung, L. R., & Gustafson, W. I. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl022911 · Cited by 167
Relative roles of climate and emissions changes on future tropospheric oxidant concentrations
Johnson, C. E., Collins, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., & Derwent, R. G. (1999) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/1999jd900204 · Cited by 149
Remote sensed and in situ constraints on processes affecting tropical tropospheric ozone
Sauvage, B., Martin, R. V., van Donkelaar, A., Liu, X., Chance, K., Jaeglé, L., Palmer, P. I., Wu, S., & Fu, T. (2007) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-7-815-2007 · Cited by 146
Self-citationTrends in exceedances of the ozone air quality standard in the continental United States, 1980–1998
Lawell, C. ‐. C. L., Jacob, D. J., & Fiore, A. M. (2001) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/s1352-2310(01)00152-2 · Cited by 128
Self-citationForkel, R., & Knoche, R. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006748 · Cited by 95
Increasing background ozone in surface air over the United States
Lawell, C. ‐. C. L., Jacob, D. J., Munger, J. W., & Fiore, A. M. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2000gl011762 · Cited by 95
Self-citationCentritto, M., Nascetti, P., Petrilli, L., Raschi, A., & Loreto, F. (2004) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/j.1365-3040.2003.01156.x · Cited by 94
Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States
Constable, J. V. H., Guenther, A., SCHIMEL, D. S., & Monson, R. K. (1999) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.1999.00273.x · Cited by 90
Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors
Stevenson, D. S., Doherty, R. M., Sanderson, M. G., Johnson, C. E., Collins, B., & Derwent, D. (2005) · Faraday Discussions · doi:10.1039/b417412g · Cited by 84
Unger, N., Shindell, D. T., Koch, D. M., Amann, M. C., Cofała, J., & Streets, D. G. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006518 · Cited by 81
Self-citationThe Dynamics of Warm and Cold Climates
Rind, D. H. (1986) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · Cited by 77
Self-citationTrends in Exceedances of the Ozone Air Quality Standard in the Continental United States, 1980-1998Preprint
Lawell, C. ‐. C. L., Jacob, D. J., & Fiore, A. M. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · Cited by 63
Self-citationChanges of tracer distributions in the doubled CO2 climate
Rind, D. H., Lerner, J. A., & McLinden, C. A. (2001) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd000439 · Cited by 62
Self-citationComparison of the measured and simulated isoprene nitrate distributions above a forest canopy
Giacopelli, P., Ford, K. M., Espada, C., & Shepson, P. B. (2005) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd005123 · Cited by 51
Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes
Tao, Z., Williams, A., Huang, H., Caughey, M., & Liang, X. (2007) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl029455 · Cited by 51
Sensitivity of future ozone concentrations in the northeast USA to regional climate change
Kunkel, K. E., Huang, H., Liang, X., Lin, J., Wuebbles, D. J., Tao, Z., Williams, A., Caughey, M., Zhu, J., & Hayhoe, K. (2007) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-007-9137-y · Cited by 27
Cited by
Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Watts, N., Adger, W. N., Agnolucci, P., Blackstock, J., Byass, P., Cai, W., Chaytor, S., Colbourn, T., Collins, M., Cooper, A., et al. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60854-6 · Cited by 2,055
Effect of climate change on air quality
Jacob, D. J., & Winner, D. A. (2009) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051 · Cited by 1,979
Self-citationTai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., & Jacob, D. J. (2010) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.060 · Cited by 1,048
Self-citationAir Quality and Climate Connections
Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., & Leibensperger, E. M. (2015) · Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association · doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526 · Cited by 537
Self-citationLefohn, A. S., Malley, C. S., Smith, L., Wells, B., Hazucha, M., Simon, H., Naik, V., Mills, G., Schultz, M. G., Paoletti, E., et al. (2018) · Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.1525/elementa.279 · Cited by 457
Metadata
- Authors
- Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Leibensperger, E. M., Jacob, D. J., Rind, D., & Streets, D. G.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2008-03-19
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- D6
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1988457974
- Cited by
- 272
- References
- 65
- FWCI
- 11.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.