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Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
Open accessAbstract
Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo‐ fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote‐sensing observations of month‐by‐month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
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“However, the spatially explicit nature of our data and the range of fire metrics used complements longer-term, less data-rich studies (see ref. 45 for justification).”
From Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes (2013) · cites this paper as [45]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Daniau, A. ‐., Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Brewer, S., Friedlingstein, P., Harrison‐Prentice, T. I., Inoue, J., Izumi, K., Marlon, J. R., Mooney, S., Power, M. J., Stevenson, J., Tinner, W., Andrič, M., Atanassova, J., Behling, H., Black, M., Blarquez, O., Brown, K. J., Carcaillet, C., Colhoun, E. A., Colombaroli, D., Davis, B. A. S., D'Costa, D., Dodson, J., Dupont, L., Eshetu, Z., Gavin, D. G., Genries, A., Haberle, S., Hallett, D. J., Hope, G., Horn, S. P., Kassa, T. G., Katamura, F., Kennedy, L. M., Kershaw, P., Krivonogov, S., Long, C., Magri, D., Marinova, E., McKenzie, G. M., Moreno, P. I., Moss, P., Neumann, F. H., Norström, E., Paitre, C., Rius, D., Roberts, N., Robinson, G. S., Sasaki, N., Scott, L., Takahara, H., Terwilliger, V., Thevenon, F., Turner, R., Valsecchi, V. G., Vannière, B., Walsh, M., Williams, N., & Zhang, Y.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Oregon (US)
- University of Wyoming (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Osaka City University (JP)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- American Museum of Natural History (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SI)
- Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski" (BG)
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- University of Newcastle Australia (AU)
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
- Monash University (AU)
- Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (AU)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- Addis Ababa University (ET)
- University of Calgary (CA)
- University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US)
- University of Cologne (DE)
- Virginia Tech (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh (US)
- Sapienza University of Rome (IT)
- University of Chile (CL)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Université Laval (CA)
- Université de Franche-Comté (FR)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- Fordham University (US)
- Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (JP)
- University of the Free State (ZA)
- Kyoto Prefectural University (JP)
- Université d'Orléans (FR)
- University of Geneva (CH)
- Government of New South Wales (AU)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- ORCID
- Daniau, A.‐L.
- Bartlein, P. J.
- Harrison, S. P.
- Prentice, I. C.
- Brewer, S.
- Friedlingstein, P.
- Inoue, J.
- Izumi, K.
- Marlon, J. R.
- Mooney, S.
- Stevenson, J.
- Tinner, W.
- Andrič, M.
- Atanassova, J.
- Behling, H.
- Blarquez, O.
- Brown, K. J.
- Carcaillet, C.
- Colombaroli, D.
- Davis, B. A. S.
- Dodson, J.
- Dupont, L.
- Eshetu, Z.
- Gavin, D. G.
- Haberle, S.
- Hope, G.
- Horn, S. P.
- Kennedy, L. M.
- Kershaw, P.
- Magri, D.
- Marinova, E.
- Moreno, P. I.
- Moss, P.
- Neumann, F. H.
- Rius, D.
- Roberts, N.
- Robinson, G. S.
- Scott, L.
- Takahara, H.
- Turner, R.
- Valsecchi, V. G.
- Vannière, B.
- Williams, N.
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2012-10-23
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 12 p.
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W1689144894
- Cited by
- 417
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 23 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 22.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- insu.hal.science
- Licence
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- Kölner Universitäts PublikationsServer (Universität zu Köln) (publishedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ScholarWorks (Central Washington University) (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Institute of Botany, CAS Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- GoeScholar The Publication Server of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Natural Environment Research Council (quest010001, NE/E006183/1)
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (22710015)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- biomass burning, fire regimes, paleoclimate, sedimentary charcoal, moisture balance, global warming, burned area, Holocene, fire-climate relationships
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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