A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems
Open accessAbstract
We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.
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Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas and decreases in others.
“Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas of the globe, but to decreases in others (Scholze et al., 2006; Krawchuk et al., 2009; Pechony & Shindell, 2010).”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Scholze et al., 2006
Fire activity is projected to increase in many locations and ecotypes as a result of climate and societal changes.
“Fire activity is projected to increase in many locations and ecotypes as a result of climate and societal changes, making the full understanding of their impacts crucial (Scholze et al. 2006;Chen et al. 2018).”
From Chemical composition of wildfire ash produced in contrasting ecosystems and its toxicity to Daphnia magna (2019) · cites this paper as Scholze et al. 2006
Cites
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Self-citationThe global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire
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“Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas of the globe, but to decreases in others (Scholze et al., 2006; Krawchuk et al., 2009; Pechony & Shindell, 2010).”
BackgroundClimate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World
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Self-citationCauses and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought
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Self-citationRelationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales
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Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties
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- Authors
- Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W., & Prentice, I. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Southampton (GB)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2006-08-29
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 35
- Pages
- 13116-13120
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC1559762
- OpenAlex
- W2093932342
- Cited by
- 756
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 73 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 49 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 55 · 2012: 55
- FWCI
- 30.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (publishedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Keywords
- climate risk, ecosystem processes, global vegetation models, forest loss, forest expansion, wildfire frequency, freshwater supply, runoff, climate change scenarios, terrestrial carbon sink, carbon source, climate feedbacks, natural variation, climate model ensembles
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Models, Theoretical, Trees, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, Risk Assessment
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