The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Counterfactual thinking.
Abstract
Counterfactuals are mental representations of alternatives to the past and produce consequences that are both beneficial and aversive to the individual. These apparently contradictory effects are integrated in a functionalist model of counterfactual thinking. The author reviews research in support of the assertions that (a) counterfactual thinking is activated automatically in response to negative affect, (b) the content of counterfactuals targets particularly likely causes of misfortune, (c) counterfactuals produce negative affective consequences through a contrast-effect mechanism and positive inferential consequences through a causal-inference mechanism, and (d) the net effect of counterfactual thinking is beneficial.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Labaien et al. generate contrastive explanations for time-series data [141].”
From A Survey of Contrastive and Counterfactual Explanation Generation Methods for Explainable Artificial Intelligence (2021) · cites this paper as [141]
In the citing paper
“On the one hand, visual explanations for non-visual input data (i.e., datasets containing continuous or categorical featurevalue pairs) plot feature-value pair dependencies [134], [141], [142].”
From A Survey of Contrastive and Counterfactual Explanation Generation Methods for Explainable Artificial Intelligence (2021) · cites this paper as [141]
Citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–200 of 999
Causal ascriptions and perceived learning from entrepreneurial failure
Yasuhiro Yamakawa, B., & Cardon, M. S. (2014) · Small Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s11187-014-9623-z · Cited by 151
“This important entrepreneurial capability (Baron 2004) is highly relevant because such counterfactual thinking can have profound effects on understanding cause-and-effect relationships, subsequent decision making, and task performance (Markman et al. 2002; Roese 1997).”
BackgroundRegret and Responsibility in the Evaluation of Decision Outcomes
Connolly, T., Ordóñez, L. D., & Coughlan, R. S. (1997) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.1997.2695 · Cited by 149
The Effects of Queue Structure on Attitudes
Rafaeli, A., Barron, G., & Haber, K. (2002) · Journal of Service Research · doi:10.1177/109467002237492 · Cited by 146
“Moreover, SQ structures clearly prescribe actions and behavior throughout the wait, but MQ structures can invite counterfactual (or what-if) thinking (Mandel and Lehman 1996; Roese 1997).”
BackgroundThe energizing nature of work engagement: Toward a new need-based theory of work motivation
Green, P. I., Finkel, E. J., Fitzsimons, G. M., & Gino, F. (2017) · Research in Organizational Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.riob.2017.10.007 · Cited by 207
“Ample research in psychology (Kray et al., 2010; Roese, 1997; Zeelenberg et al., 1998) demonstrates the dramatic effect one’s counterfactual mental reality can wield on one’s affective response to that reality.”
BackgroundCounterfactual thinking facilitates behavioral intentions
Smallman, R., & Roese, N. J. (2009) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2009.03.002 · Cited by 150
“Counterfactuals furnish benchmarks against which events are appreciated; they influence emotions both in magnitude and in kind; and they impact a range of judgments, such as blame, likelihood, suspicion, and decision-making (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMarkdown or Everyday Low Price? The Role of Behavioral Motives
Özer, Ö., & Zheng, Y. (2013) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2014.2147 · Cited by 136
“Regret arises when a consumer engages in counterfactual thinking (Kahneman and Miller 1986, Medvec et al. 1995, Roese 1997).”
Shepherd, D. A., & Patzelt, H. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-71782-1 · Cited by 203
Garry, M., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2000) · Current Directions in Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/1467-8721.00048 · Cited by 142
“2 These contrary-to-truth “what if” scenarios, called counterfactual thoughts, can affect the way people judge bad outcomes, personal choices, and accountability (see Roese, 1997, for a review).”
BackgroundTHE SELF NOT TAKEN: HOW ALTERNATIVE SELVES DEVELOP AND HOW THEY INFLUENCE OUR PROFESSIONAL LIVES.
Obodaru, O. (2011) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.2009.0358 · Cited by 176
On bad decisions and deciding badly: When intention–behavior inconsistency is regrettable
Pieters, R. G. M., & Zeelenberg, M. (2005) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2005.01.003 · Cited by 137
Regulatory mode effects on counterfactual thinking and regret
Pierro, A., Leder, S., Mannetti, L., Higgins, E. T., Kruglanski, A. W., & Aiello, A. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2007.06.002 · Cited by 142
“A relation between counterfactual thinking and regret is postulated in various models (e.g. Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Roese, 1997) and there is some evidence to support it (Zeelenberg, van Djik, Van der Pligt, Manstead, Regulatory Mode Effects On Regret 7 Empelen, & Reinderman, 1998; Tsiros &…”
BackgroundPrécis ofThe Rational Imagination: How People Create Alternatives to Reality
Byrne, R. M. J. (2007) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x07002579 · Cited by 146
Cognitive neuroscience of human counterfactual reasoning
Hoeck, N. V. (2015) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2015.00420 · Cited by 147
“Counterfactual thought rarely suggests alterations from natural or social laws (Byrne, 1997, 2007; Roese, 1997; Nasco and Marsh, 1999; McCloy and Byrne, 2000; Walsh and Byrne, 2004; Tykocinski and Steinberg, 2005; Dehghani et al., 2012).”
Backgroundvan Dijk, E., & Zeelenberg, M. (2005) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2005.04.001 · Cited by 132
Counterfactuals, emotions, and context
Mandel, D. R. (2003) · Cognition & Emotion · doi:10.1080/02699930302275 · Cited by 134
The effects of social category norms and stereotypes on explanations for intergroup differences.
Hegarty, P. V., & Pratto, F. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.80.5.723 · Cited by 167
Dan Ariely, C., & Norton, M. I. (2008) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.60.110707.163536 · Cited by 140
“…the extraordinary human capacity for mental simulation of both past and future events (Gilbert & Wilson 2007, Kahneman & Miller 1986, et al. 2008, Roese 1997, Taylor et al. 1998, Tulving 2002) and general proclivity for mind-wandering (Mason et al. 2007, Smallwood & Schooler 2006) suggests that…”
BackgroundCounterfactual Reasoning: Developing a Sense of “Nearest Possible World”
Rafetseder, E., Cristi‐Vargas, R., & Perner, J. (2010) · Child Development · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8624.2009.01401.x · Cited by 126
“Creating such alternatives to known facts is called counterfactual reasoning (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundGerstenberg, T., Peterson, M., Goodman, N. D., Lagnado, D. A., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2017) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797617713053 · Cited by 135
“Past research has shown that counterfactual thoughts are triggered when experienced outcomes are negative, unexpected, or close to alternative outcomes (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundMethodProviding an Explanation for Service Failure: Context, Content, and Customer Responses
Sparks, B., & Fredline, L. (2007) · Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research · doi:10.1177/1096348006297292 · Cited by 135
“According to this theory, following a negative event, such as a service failure encounter, people tend to engage in a process referred to as counterfactual thinking (Roese, 1997).”
Computational Models of Emotion Inference in Theory of Mind: A Review and Roadmap
Ong, D. C., Zaki, J., & Goodman, N. D. (2018) · Topics in Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/tops.12371 · Cited by 132
Bacile, T. J., Wolter, J. S., Allen, A. M., & Xu, P. (2018) · Journal of Interactive Marketing · doi:10.1016/j.intmar.2018.04.002 · Cited by 139
“Counterfactual thinking literally means thinking about something that did not happen (Roese 1997), and then mentally juxtaposing a comparatively better or worse outcome.”
BackgroundUnifying morality’s influence on non-moral judgments: The relevance of alternative possibilities
Phillips, J., Luguri, J. B., & Knobe, J. (2015) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2015.08.001 · Cited by 120
The 3P Model: A General Theory of Subjective Well-Being
Durayappah, A. (2010) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-010-9223-9 · Cited by 136
Rationalism and the Content of Intuitive Judgements
Malmgren, A. (2011) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/fzr039 · Cited by 131
Feeling Duped: Emotional, Motivational, and Cognitive Aspects of Being Exploited by Others
Vohs, K. D., Baumeister, R. F., & Chin, J. M. (2007) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/1089-2680.11.2.127 · Cited by 126
Mandel, D. R. (2003) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/0096-3445.132.3.419 · Cited by 119
“Over the past two decades, a great deal of psychological research has examined the determinants, consequences, and functions of counterfactual thinking (for a review, see Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundResultKulakova, E., & Nieuwland, M. S. (2016) · Language and Linguistics Compass · doi:10.1111/lnc3.12175 · Cited by 122
Affective Determinants of Counterfactual Thinking
Roese, N. J., & Hur, T. (1997) · Social Cognition · doi:10.1521/soco.1997.15.4.274 · Cited by 121
Self-citationWhen Plans Change: Examining How People Evaluate Timing Changes in Work Organizations
Blount, S., & Janicik, G. A. (2001) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.2001.5393892 · Cited by 155
“, what the event could have been or was expected to be (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundOn generating trustworthy counterfactual explanations
Del Ser, J., Barredo-Arrieta, A., Díaz-Rodríguez, N., Herrera, F., Saranti, A., & Holzinger, A. (2024) · Information Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.ins.2023.119898 · Cited by 122
Futurescapes: Imagination and temporal reorganization in the design of strategic narratives
Rindova, V., & Martins, L. L. (2021) · Strategic Organization · doi:10.1177/1476127021989787 · Cited by 135
“Mental stimulation refers to “imaginative mental construction” (Roese, 1997: 134), whereas narrative transportation is “a guided form of mental simulation” (Green and Donahue, 2009: 241).”
BackgroundWhen Possibility Informs Reality
Spellman, B. A., & Mandel, D. R. (1999) · Current Directions in Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/1467-8721.00028 · Cited by 119
“People also tend to mutate antecedents that are personally controllable (see Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundFrederiks, A. J., Englis, B. G., Ehrenhard, M., & Groen, A. J. (2018) · Journal of Business Venturing · doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2018.05.007 · Cited by 116
Perceived control and posttraumatic stress: A temporal model
Frazier, P. A., Berman, M. I., & Steward, J. (2001) · Applied and Preventive Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0962-1849(01)80015-9 · Cited by 118
Koo, M., Algoe, S. B., Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2008) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0013316 · Cited by 118
“Research on norm theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986) and counterfactual reasoning (Roese, 1997) suggests that thinking about the ways in which an event might not have occurred can make that event seem more surprising.”
BackgroundInfluentialSchimel, J., Arndt, J., Pyszczynski, T., & Greenberg, J. (2001) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.80.1.35 · Cited by 150
Peceived control of life regrets: Good for young and bad for old adults.
Wrosch, C., & Heckhausen, J. (2002) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.17.2.340 · Cited by 119
“Regrets involve counterfactual thoughts (e.g., “If I would have done behavior X, I would be happier”; Roese, 1997) and often the experience of negative emotions (e.g., anger, feelings of helplessness; Gilovich et al., 1998; Kahneman, 1995).”
BackgroundCognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): A framework of patient medical decision making
Power, T. E., Swartzman, L. C., & Robinson, J. W. (2010) · Patient Education and Counseling · doi:10.1016/j.pec.2010.05.021 · Cited by 116
Post-decisional accounts of biases in confidence
Navajas, J., Bahrami, B., & Latham, P. E. (2016) · Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.cobeha.2016.05.005 · Cited by 97
Wohl, M., & Enzle, M. (2003) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0022-1031(02)00525-5 · Cited by 131
“Our hypothetical scenario is usually understood in terms of the counterfactual thinking approach (see Roese, 1997 for a review).”
BackgroundMa, J., & Roese, N. J. (2014) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/674977 · Cited by 124
Self-citationArora, P., Haynie, J. M., & Laurence, G. A. (2011) · Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6520.2011.00472.x · Cited by 115
“Counterfactual thoughts represent “alternative versions of the past” where the individual compares their current circumstance to some envisioned worse (downward counterfactual), or better (upward counterfactual) outcome (Roese, 1997, pp. 133–134).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialCrisp, R. J., Heuston, S., Farr, M. J., & Turner, R. N. (2007) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/1368430207071337 · Cited by 111
“Silver et al. (2001) found that participants appraised themselves as weak in the situation, more so when they were the sole ingroup member encountering multiple outgroup members.”
BackgroundCounterfactual thinking about controllable events
McCloy, R., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2000) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03209355 · Cited by 112
Dare to compare: Fact-based versus simulation-based comparison in daily life
Summerville, A. L., & Roese, N. J. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2007.04.002 · Cited by 110
Self-citationJoseph‐Williams, N., Edwards, A., & Elwyn, G. J. (2010) · Health Expectations · doi:10.1111/j.1369-7625.2010.00621.x · Cited by 110
Can Identifying and Investigating Fraud Risks Increase Auditors’ Liability?
Reffett, A. B. (2010) · The Accounting Review · doi:10.2308/accr.2010.85.6.2145 · Cited by 106
Scott, K. M., Koenen, K. C., King, A., Petukhova, M. V., Alonso, J., Bromet, E. J., Bruffaerts, R., Bunting, B., de Jonge, P., Haro, J. M., et al. (2017) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291717001593 · Cited by 116
“Upwards counterfactual thinking is hypothesized to be distressing in the short-term but adaptive in the longer term because it leads to the development of behavioral intentions that generated a sense of future control (Roese 1997).”
BackgroundInfluentialLearning to de-escalate: The effects of regret in escalation of commitment
Ku, G. (2007) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2007.08.002 · Cited by 109
The temporality effect in counterfactual thinking about what might have been
Byrne, R. M. J., Segura, S., Culhane, R., et al. (2000) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03213805 · Cited by 108
“( People generate counterfactuals in response to both dra matic life events and more mundane outcomes commonly encountered in day-to-day living (see, e.g., Hofstadter, 1985; Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundWhen People Don’t Realize Their Career Desires: Toward a Theory of Career Inaction
Verbruggen, M., & Vos, A. D. (2019) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.2017.0196 · Cited by 126
Children’s thinking about their own and others’ regret and relief
Weisberg, D., & Beck, S. R. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2010.02.005 · Cited by 107
The role and impact of mental simulation in design
Christensen, B. T., & Schunn, C. D. (2008) · Applied Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1002/acp.1464 · Cited by 106
“Social psychological explanations of counterfactual thinking have built upon this notion of a simulation heuristic, focussing primarily on the simulations of alternatives to autobiographical episodes and the associated affect (see Roese, 1997; Roese & Olson, 1995).”
BackgroundOnly spontaneous counterfactual thinking is impaired in patients with prefrontal cortex lesions
Beldarrain, M. G., García‐Moncó, J. C., Astigarraga, E., Gonzalez, A., & Grafman, J. H. (2005) · Cognitive Brain Research · doi:10.1016/j.cogbrainres.2005.03.013 · Cited by 104
Motives of theHumanAnimal: Comprehending, Managing, and Sharing Inner States
Higgins, E. T., & Pittman, T. S. (2007) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093726 · Cited by 105
Reasoning counterfactually: Making inferences about things that didn't happen.
Thompson, V. A., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2002) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1037/0278-7393.28.6.1154 · Cited by 111
“In particular, counterfactual and causal thinking have been closely linked by philosophers (e.g., Chisholm, 1946; Mackie, 1974) and psychologists (e.g., Mandel & Lehman, 1996; Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundReality Compared With Its Alternatives: Age Differences in Judgments of Regret and Relief.
Guttentag, R. E., & Ferrell, J. M. (2004) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/0012-1649.40.5.764 · Cited by 102
“Regret is one of a set of complex, second-order emotions whose quality and intensity depend not only on the exact nature of the outcome of a situation but also on a comparison of reality to its alternatives (Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Miller & Taylor, 1995; Roese, 1997; Roese & Olson, 1995).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialReactance, Compliance, and Anticipated Regret
Crawford, M. T., McConnell, A. R., Lewis, A. C., & Sherman, S. J. (2002) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1006/jesp.2001.1481 · Cited by 104
The team halo effect: Why teams are not blamed for their failures.
Naquin, C. E., & Tynan, R. O. (2003) · Journal of Applied Psychology · doi:10.1037/0021-9010.88.2.332 · Cited by 101
Zemba, Y., Young, M. J., & Morris, M. W. (2006) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.04.007 · Cited by 104
“Third, positive outcomes, accompanied by positive feeling, are less likely to evoke counterfactual thinking than negative outcomes, accompanied by negative feeling (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundQualitative Analysis of Women's Experiences of Sexual Aggression
Testa, M., & Livingston, J. A. (1999) · Psychology of Women Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1471-6402.1999.tb00382.x · Cited by 103
The Meaning of Cause and Prevent: The Role of Causal Mechanism
Walsh, C. R., & Sloman, S. A. (2011) · Mind & Language · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0017.2010.01409.x · Cited by 94
Hechler, S., & Kessler, T. (2018) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2018.03.005 · Cited by 105
A counterfactual explanation for the action effect in causal judgment
Henne, P., Niemi, L., Pinillos, Á., Brigard, F. D., & Knobe, J. (2019) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2019.05.006 · Cited by 89
Reinforcement learning for crop management support: Review, prospects and challenges
Gautron, R., Maillard, O.-A., Preux, P., Corbeels, M., & Sabbadin, R. (2022) · Computers and Electronics in Agriculture · doi:10.1016/j.compag.2022.107182 · Cited by 114
Neurobiological regret and rejoice functions for aversive outcomes
Chandrasekhar, P. V. S., Capra, C. M., Moore, S. E., NOUSSAIR, C. N., & Berns, G. S. (2007) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2007.10.027 · Cited by 100
“…of regret and rejoice is as a result of counterfactual thinking, in which a realized outcome is compared with, “what might have been” (Boles and Messick, 1995; Inman et al., 1997; Kelsey and Schepanski, 1991; Mellers, 2000; Ritov and Baron, 1995; Roese and Olson, 1995; Zeelenberg, 1999).”
BackgroundResultDynamics of Identity: Between Self-Enhancement and Self-Assessment
Gregg, A. P., Sedikides, C., & Gebauer, J. E. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-7988-9_14 · Cited by 103
“But people do not only construe themselves as they are or were, but they also construe themselves as how they might be (Higgins, 1987) or might have been (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundJustice Within Social Dilemmas
Schroeder, D. A., Steel, J. E., Woodell, A. J., & Bembenek, A. F. (2003) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1207/s15327957pspr0704_09 · Cited by 101
“As we see it, the "triggers" for the shifts from one justice concern to another are not unlike the triggers for the cognitive processes of attribution (e.g., Weiner, 1985; Wong & Weiner, 198 1) and counterfactual thinking (e.g., Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundRegret and Behavior: Comment on Zeelenberg and Pieters
Roese, N. J., Summerville, A. L., & Fessel, F. (2007) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1207/s15327663jcp1701_5 · Cited by 99
“Regret motivates people toward revised decision making and corrective action that often bring improvement in life circumstances (Nasco & March, 1999; Roese, 1997, 1999; Zeelenberg & Pieters, 1999).”
BackgroundSelf-citationTwo Causal Theories of Counterfactual Conditionals
Rips, L. J. (2010) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/j.1551-6709.2009.01080.x · Cited by 95
“People do counterfactual reasoning whenever they contemplate a nonfactual state of affairs, whether or not this takes a specifically conditional form (e.g., Byrne, 2007; Kahneman & Varey, 1990; Roese, 1997; Tetlock & Henik, 2005).”
BackgroundFoster, M. I., & Keane, M. T. (2015) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2015.08.004 · Cited by 103
“In norm theory, these counterfactual, alternative outcomes are seen as being retrieved from memory or constructed after-the-fact (see Roese, 1997, for a review).”
Collie, T. A., Sparks, B., & Bradley, G. L. (2000) · Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research · doi:10.1177/109634800002400403 · Cited by 99
“Counterfactual is literally defined as “counter to the facts” (Roese, 1997), or thinking “what might have been” (Roese & Olson, 1997, p.”
BackgroundDownward Counterfactual Search for Extreme Events
Woo, G. (2019) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00340 · Cited by 91
“There is a large literature on counterfactual thinking, spanning many different disciplines, including history (e.g., Roberts, 2004; Ferguson, 2011; Evans, 2014; Gallagher, 2018); literature (e.g., Roth, 2004; Leiber, 2010); and the philosophy of causation (Pearl, 2000; Collins et al., 2004; Pearl…”
BackgroundThe possible as a field of inquiry
Glăveanu, V. P. (2018) · Europe’s Journal of Psychology · doi:10.5964/ejop.v14i3.1725 · Cited by 96
“the 20th century by existentialists such as Sartre (1996), who famously articulated the consequence of this view: that we are all condemned to be free. But what exactly does it mean to be ‘open’ and ‘free’, and how do these two relate to the possible? And what happens in experiences of the possible such as wonder? The…”
BackgroundInfluentialAffective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?
Ayton, P., Pott, A., & Elwakili, N. (2006) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546780600872726 · Cited by 106
“Tykocinski (2001) notes that, although there is something odd about the tendency of people to take comfort in the inevitability of disappointing events, the tendency to perceive inevitable events as less tragic than mutable events is well established by research in counterfactual thinking (Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Kah…”
BackgroundJudging the Relevance of Fair Value for Financial Instruments
Koonce, L. L., Nelson, K. K., & Shakespeare, C. M. (2011) · The Accounting Review · doi:10.2308/accr-10134 · Cited by 85
Precision Weapons, Civilian Casualties, and Support for the Use of Force
Walsh, J. I. (2013) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12175 · Cited by 110
Sex Differences in Regret: All For Love or Some For Lust?
Roese, N. J., Pennington, G. L., Coleman, J. M., et al. (2006) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167206286709 · Cited by 90
“Regret and counterfactual thinking are widely studied because of their impact on emotional well-being, decision making, behavior regulation, and mental health (Mandel, Hilton, & Catellani, 2005; Roese, 1997, 2005; Zeelenberg, 1999).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMichailova, S., Piekkari, R., Plakoyiannaki, E., Ritvala, T. A.-M., Mihailova, I., & Salmi, A. (2013) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.5465/amr.2011.0403 · Cited by 97
Shih, E. C.-F., & Schau, H. J. (2011) · Journal of Retailing · doi:10.1016/j.jretai.2011.01.006 · Cited by 91
When bittersweet turns sour: Adverse effects of nostalgia on habitual worriers
Verplanken, B. (2012) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.1852 · Cited by 90
“…which is typical of other forms of repetitive thinking, such as depressive rumination (e.g., Nolen-Hoeksema, 1991), repetitive regret (Roese et al., 2009), counterfactual thinking (e.g., Roese, 1997), or rumination associated with homesickness (Stroebe, van Vliet, Hewstone, & Willis, 2002).”
BackgroundDevelopment and Validation of the Counterfactual Thinking for Negative Events Scale
Rye, M. S., Cahoon, M. B., Ali, R. S., et al. (2008) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1080/00223890701884996 · Cited by 90
Spreading the blame: The allocation of responsibility amongst multiple agents
Gerstenberg, T., & Lagnado, D. A. (2010) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2009.12.011 · Cited by 86
“Although the relation between causal and counterfactual judgments has been extensively investigated (Kahneman & Miller, 1986; Roese, 1997), the Structural Model has not yet been subjected to empirical test.”
Depression, Control, and Counterfactual Thinking: Functional for Whom?
Markman, K. D., & Miller, A. K. (2006) · Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1521/jscp.2006.25.2.210 · Cited by 86
“…have adopted a functional approach toward understanding the determinants and consequences of counterfactual thinking (e.g., Markman, Gavanski, Sherman, & McMullen, 1993; Markman & McMullen, 2003, 2005; Roese, 1997; Sanna, 2000), and this conceptualization highlights a number of possible functions.”
BackgroundMacKenzie, M. J., Vohs, K. D., & Baumeister, R. F. (2014) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167214549322 · Cited by 84
“Blaming The Victim” Under Memory Load
Goldinger, S. D., Kleider, H. M., Azuma, T., & Beike, D. R. (2003) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/1467-9280.01423 · Cited by 89
“Monetary Compensation The data were analyzed in separate mixed-model analyses of variance, one for each kind of judgment that participants rendered.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWang, J., Zheng, B., Liu, H., & Yu, L. (2020) · Information Technology and People · doi:10.1108/itp-10-2018-0483 · Cited by 95
Rework Causation: Emergent Theoretical Insights and Implications for Research
Love, P. E. D., Edwards, D. J., & Smith, J. (2016) · Journal of Construction Engineering and Management · doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001114 · Cited by 87
“431 432 Through counterfactual thinking, people can reason how past changes affect the present and use 433 such reasoning for cognitive tasks including social judgments, causal attribution, problem solving 434 and learning (Roese, 1997; Byrne, 2002).”
BackgroundNicklin, J. M., Greenbaum, R. L., McNall, L. A., Folger, R., & Williams, K. (2011) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2010.10.007 · Cited by 93
Guilty, free, and wise: Determinism and psychopathy diminish learning from negative emotions
Stillman, T. F., & Baumeister, R. F. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2010.05.012 · Cited by 84
Upward counterfactual thinking and depression: A meta-analysis
Broomhall, A. G., Phillips, W. J., Hine, D. W., & Loi, N. M. (2017) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2017.04.010 · Cited by 82
“…two ways: (1) by realising that the current outcome was of a lesser standard than one would have hoped for, also referred to as the contrast effect (Roese, 1994, 1997), and/or (2) by attributing causal explanations, highlighting the importance of missing actions which could have prevented the…”
BackgroundFoundations of structural causal models with cycles and latent variables
Bongers, S., Forré, P. D., Peters, J., & Mooij, J. M. (2021) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/21-aos2064 · Cited by 84
“The interpretation of counterfactual statements has received a lot of attention in the literature [33, 61, 8, 1, 48].”
BackgroundMolden, D. C., & Higgins, E. T. (2012) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199734689.013.0020 · Cited by 86
I Never Had a Chance: Using Hindsight Tactics to Mitigate Disappointments
Tykocinski, O., & Gurion, B. (2001) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167201273011 · Cited by 84
“This amplification effect was demonstrated in a relatively large number of experiments in which various methods were employed to increase the mutability and consequently the emotional impact of negative events (see Roese, 1997).”
Counterfactual cognitive deficit in persons with Parkinson's disease
McNamara, P. (2003) · Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery & Psychiatry · doi:10.1136/jnnp.74.8.1065 · Cited by 84
Looking on the Bright Side: Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Response to Negative Life Events
White, K., & Lehman, D. R. (2005) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167205276064 · Cited by 82
“…(Galinsky & Moskowitz, 2000; Roese & Hur, 1997; Roese & Olson, 1995c, 1997; Sanna et al., 1999; Sanna, Meier, & Turley-Ames, 1998), losses in sporting events (Grieve, Houston, Dupuis, & Eddy, 1999), and negative affective states (Roese, 1997; Roese & Hur, 1997; Sanna et al., 1998, 1999).”
Causal Conceptions in Social Explanation and Moral Evaluation
Alicke, M. D., Mandel, D. R., Hilton, D., Gerstenberg, T., & Lagnado, D. A. (2015) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691615601888 · Cited by 89
“, & Roese, N. J. (2008). The functional theory of counterfactual thinking.”
BackgroundThe Loss of Loss Aversion: Paying Attention to Reference Points
Higgins, E. T., & Liberman, N. (2018) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1002/jcpy.1045 · Cited by 81
“Counterfactuals, that is, representations of what might have happened otherwise, matter (Byrne, 2007; Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundSurprise and Motivation of Causal Search: How Are They Affected by Outcome Valence and Importance?
Gendolla, G. H. E., & Koller, M. T. (2001) · Motivation and Emotion · doi:10.1023/a:1014867700547 · Cited by 85
Metadata
- Authors
- Roese, N. J.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Roese, Neal J.
- ORCID
- Roese, Neal J.
- Venue
- Psychological Bulletin
- Published
- 1997
- Volume
- 121
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 133-148
- ISSN
- 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1455
- OpenAlex
- W4246855866
- Cited by
- 1,156
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 38
- FWCI
- 13.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Keywords
- counterfactual reasoning, counterfactuals, negative affect, contrast effects, causal inference, misfortune, functionalism
- MeSH terms
- Anger, Depression, Humans, Internal-External Control, Motivation, Problem Solving, Social Perception, Thinking
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review