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Counterfactual thinking.

Roese, Neal J.·1997·Psychological Bulletin

DOI 10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133

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Abstract

Counterfactuals are mental representations of alternatives to the past and produce consequences that are both beneficial and aversive to the individual. These apparently contradictory effects are integrated in a functionalist model of counterfactual thinking. The author reviews research in support of the assertions that (a) counterfactual thinking is activated automatically in response to negative affect, (b) the content of counterfactuals targets particularly likely causes of misfortune, (c) counterfactuals produce negative affective consequences through a contrast-effect mechanism and positive inferential consequences through a causal-inference mechanism, and (d) the net effect of counterfactual thinking is beneficial.

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“Counterfactual thinking is, as it states: ‘ counter to the facts ’ (Roese, 1997) and include things that — in the present — now could never happen in reality because they solely pertain to events that have occurred in the past (Kray et al., 2010; Roese, 1997; Sherman & McConnell, 1996).”
Background
Public Administration Capacity Building through Exploring Downward Counterfactuals
Woo, G., Gargiulo, M. V., Napolitano, F., et al. (2024) · Public Organization Review · doi:10.1007/s11115-024-00788-8 · Cited by 1
“The terminology originates from social psychology (Roese, 1997), combining two key aspects of human cogni - tion: imagination and regret.”
A role game to learn about risk perception via downward counterfactual thinking
Gargiulo, M. V., Woo, G., Russo, R., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105000 · Cited by 1
Recursive Counterfactual Deconfounding for image recognition
Sun, J., Gao, M., Wang, H., & Dong, Q. (2025) · Knowledge-Based Systems · doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2025.113245 · Cited by 2
Relations of Regret, Subjective Well-being, and Adaptation for College Students
Eun, J. (2013) · Asian Journal of Education · doi:10.15753/aje.2013.14.1.012 · Cited by 1
Counterfactual Thinking in Children With Autism Spectrum Disorders
Westby, C. E. (2016) · Word of Mouth · doi:10.1177/1048395016673056a · Cited by 1
“In addition, depending on the positive or negative nature of the outcome, the stories were intended to elicit downward or upward counterfactual reasoning, respectively (Roese, 1997).”
Background
Language, Cognition, and Counterfactual Thinking
Westby, C. E. (2016) · Word of Mouth · doi:10.1177/1048395016673056 · Cited by 1
“Comparing a situation with a better alternative provides an incentive to modify our behavior (Roese, 1997).”
Background
Counterfactual thinking and educational psychology
Hill, J. (2017) · Educational Psychology in Practice · doi:10.1080/02667363.2017.1288086 · Cited by 1
“…rather than failures to act; focusing on exceptions rather than the ordinary (Kahneman & Tversky, 1982); thinking counterfactually about controllable rather than uncontrollable events (McCloy & Byrne, 2000), and tending to have counterfactual thoughts when there is a negative outcome (Roese, 1997).”
Background
Linking counterfactuality with theory of mind: evidence from developmental studies with Yàobúshì in Chinese
Hsu, C.-F. (2017) · Lingua Sinica · doi:10.1186/s40655-017-0031-6 · Cited by 1
Cognições sobre Eventos Passados: uma Revisão da Literatura
Justino, F. L. C., & Schelini, P. W. (2018) · Revista Colombiana de Psicología · doi:10.15446/rcp.v27n2.65585 · Cited by 1
“Assim como no processo experimental, o pensamento contrafactual envolve a consideração lógica de relações e associações causais entre eventos; as alternativas contrafactuais seriam como testes a partir dos quais essas relações poderiam ser inferidas (Roese, 1997).”
Background
赌博游戏中的near-miss效应
Tao, S. U. O., Yan, Y. A. N. G., Fan, Z., Wang, M., & Zhao, G. (2018) · Advances in Psychological Science · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1042.2018.01689 · Cited by 1
“…et al., 2013)。纵观以上三种理论解释, 最终可归结为结果评价理论解释的两大争论：强化学习理论 (the reinforcement-learning theory, Holroyd & Coles, 2002)和情感动机假说 (the motivational/affective hypothesis, Gehring & Willoughby, 2002 )。前两者解释都认为 near-miss输钱通过增强奖赏预期提升个体持续赌博动机, 它们都属于强化学习理论的范畴, 但二者的具体分歧在于：认知曲解假说把 near-miss…”
Influential

Authors: Roese, N. J.
Affiliations: Northwestern University (US)
Corresponding author: Roese, Neal J.
ORCID: Roese, Neal J.
Venue: Psychological Bulletin
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1997
Volume: 121
Issue: 1
Pages: 133-148
ISSN: 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
1939-1455
DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133
OpenAlex: W4246855866
Cited by: 1,156
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 38
FWCI: 13.68
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Keywords: counterfactual reasoning, counterfactuals, negative affect, contrast effects, causal inference, misfortune, functionalism
MeSH terms: Anger, Depression, Humans, Internal-External Control, Motivation, Problem Solving, Social Perception, Thinking

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