Cited by 390Statistics Education and MethodologiesData Visualization and AnalyticsMeta-analysis and systematic reviews

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Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars.

Belia, Sarah, Fidler, Fiona, Williams, Jennifer, Cumming, Geoff·2005·Psychological Methods

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Abstract

Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p < .05). Results from 473 respondents suggest that many leading researchers have severe misconceptions about how error bars relate to statistical significance, do not adequately distinguish CIs and SE bars, and do not appreciate the importance of whether the 2 means are independent or come from a repeated measures design. Better guidelines for researchers and less ambiguous graphical conventions are needed before the advantages of CIs for research communication can be realized.

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Authors: Belia, S., Fidler, F., Williams, J., & Cumming, G.
Affiliations: La Trobe University (AU)
ORCID: Fidler, Fiona
Cumming, Geoff
Venue: Psychological Methods
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 2005
Volume: 10
Issue: 4
Pages: 389-396
ISSN: 1082-989X (ISSN-L)
1939-1463
DOI: 10.1037/1082-989x.10.4.389
OpenAlex: W2110405340
Cited by: 390
References: 27
Citations by year: 2026: 15 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 19 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 11
FWCI: 8.98
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Psychological Methods (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design › Data Visualization and Analytics
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Keywords: confidence intervals, error bars, statistical significance, repeated measures designs, scholarly communication
MeSH terms: Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Research, Confidence Intervals

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars.

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