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Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass
Open accessAbstract
Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.
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“The biomass of the world ' s vegetation ( 25 ) has halved over human history”
From Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change (2019) · cites this paper as [25]
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“The total biomass of crops cultivated by humans is estimated at ≈10 Gt C, which accounts for only ≈2% of the extant total plant biomass (17).”
From The biomass distribution on Earth (2018) · cites this paper as [17]
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“Combining data from independent sources such as these enables a robust assessment of the total plant biomass (17).”
From The biomass distribution on Earth (2018) · cites this paper as [17]
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“The latter is estimated at 11.3 Mkm 2 in 2000 (9)”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
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“Approximately 450 Gt of C is bound up in terrestrial biota, primarily in plants (86), while only ~6 Gt of C is found in ocean biota (87).”
From Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries (2023) · cites this paper as [86]
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“Land conversions (i.e., replacement of forests with cropland and pastures) and land management [i.e., harvesting of timber from managed forests or removal of herbaceous biomass through grazing (9)] almost equally cause these differences.”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
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“Converted grassland holds biomass stocks that are less than 10% of the potential biomass stock (9).”
From Restoring Degraded Lands (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
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Citations
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Improving the estimation of grazing pressure in tropical rangelands
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“Thus, while our study shows that considering the contribution of woodlands to livestock production is key, it also corroborates that data on the livestock footprint in woodlands is uncertain (Erb et al 2018).”
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Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems
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“Grazing systems are highly sensitive and vulnerable to these widespread environmental changes given its high reliance on natural processes, such as heat, water, and forage (5, 6).”
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Self-citationModelling herbivory impacts on vegetation structure and productivity
Krause, J., Anthoni, P. M., Harfoot, M. B. J., Kupisch, M., & Arneth, A. (2025) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-18-9633-2025 · Cited by 6
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“Terrestrial living plants hold a crucial role in regulating the climate through their contributions in carbon flux density and storing a tremendous amount of carbon storage (380–536 Pg C) [1,2].”
BackgroundAdaptation and mitigation capacity of wildland forests in the northeastern United States
Faison, E. K., Laflower, D. M., Morreale, L. L., Foster, D. R., Hall, B. R., Johnson, E., & Thompson, J. R. (2023) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121145 · Cited by 4
“potential carbon stores by about 36% (Harris et al. 2016; Erb et al. 2018).”
Kaufmann, L., Wiedenhofer, D., Cao, Z., Theurl, M. C., Lauk, C., Baumgart, A., Gingrich, S., & Haberl, H. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad236b · Cited by 5
“This amount equals ca. 1.5% of global biomass stocks in ecosystems [63].”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal: A Physical Science Perspective
Taylor, W., Marston, B., Rosner, R., & Wurtele, J. S. (2025) · PRX Energy · doi:10.1103/prxenergy.4.017001 · Cited by 6
New Metrics and the Combinations for Estimating Forest Biomass From GLAS Data
Zhang, Y., Li, W., & Liang, S. (2021) · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/jstars.2021.3101285 · Cited by 4
Vegetation change enhanced the positive global surface radiation budget
Feng, H., Xiong, J., Ye, S., Zou, B., & Wang, W. (2022) · Advances in Space Research · doi:10.1016/j.asr.2022.04.038 · Cited by 4
Hayek, M. (2022) · Agricultural & Environmental Letters · doi:10.1002/ael2.20073 · Cited by 4
Barrera, M., & Ielpi, A. (2024) · Geological Society London Special Publications · doi:10.1144/sp540-2023-94 · Cited by 4
Carbon Sequestration in Cropland Soils
Lorenz, K. E., & Lal, R. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92318-5_3 · Cited by 4
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trendsPreprint
Gormley-Gallagher, A., Sterl, S. H., Hirsch, A. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Davin, É. L., & Thiery, W. (2020) · doi:10.5194/esd-2020-35 · Cited by 4
Revising the global biogeography of plant life cyclesPreprint
Poppenwimer, T. L., Mayrose, I., & DeMalach, N. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.09.13.507878 · Cited by 4
Social Metabolism and Biodiversity
Haberl, H., Erb, K., Gaube, V., Krausmann, F., & Matej, S. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-822562-2.00133-x · Cited by 3
Self-citationFire in the Chaco Region: Ecological Aspects and Land Management
Bravo, S., Ledesma, R., Coria, R. D., & Loto, D. E. (2025) · Ecological studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-89372-8_8 · Cited by 3
Mukotanyi, S. M., Mbaswa, J. N., Badesire, L. A., Muhindo, D. I., & Balezi, A. Z. (2026) · Discover Forests · doi:10.1007/s44415-025-00053-w · Cited by 3
Substantial contribution of trees outside forests to above-ground carbon across China
Su, Y., Shi, T., Zhang, X., Xu, Y., Cheng, K., Liu, S., Han, G., Ma, X., Chen, S., Tong, X., et al. (2026) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-03150-y · Cited by 5
“Consequently, AGC in scattered trees in non-forest ecosystems like croplands, grasslands, and urban green spaces, remain more uncertain 10 .”
Human footprint effects on the distribution of the spotted lowland paca (Cuniculus paca)
Sánchez-Reyes, M., Chiappa‐Carrara, X., Vázquez‐Domínguez, E., Yáñez‐Arenas, C., Falconi, M., Osorio‐Olvera, L., & Díaz, R. G. C. (2023) · Therya · doi:10.12933/therya-23-2237 · Cited by 3
Usługi ekosystemowe polskich lasów : ocena potencjału
Nauk, I. G. I. P. Z. P. A., Affek, A. N., Kołaczkowska, E., Kowalska, A., Regulska, E., Wolski, J., & Solon, J. (2023) · doi:10.7163/rap.0003 · Cited by 3
Nie, W., Liu, J., Wang, Q., Huang, R., Zhao, Y., Yang, S., Sun, J., Xiao, W., Duan, A., Xiao, Y., et al. (2024) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110789 · Cited by 3
Liu, Y., Qu, B., Jiang, E., Hao, L., & Li, J. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102208 · Cited by 3
Liu, H., Yao, Y., Ai, Z., Dang, X., Cao, Y. J., Li, Q., Hou, M., Hu, H., Zhang, Y., & Cao, T. (2025) · Journal of Arid Land · doi:10.1007/s40333-025-0016-8 · Cited by 3
Gingrich, S., Matej, S., Erb, K.-H., Haberl, H., Noë, J. L., Kaufmann, L., Magerl, A., Schaffartzik, A., Wiedenhofer, D., & Pauliuk, S. (2025) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2025.113472 · Cited by 3
“Erb et al. 26 estimate that on existing forest land, the difference between currently pre-vailing (actual) biomass and its ecological maximum potential amounts to 488 GtCO 2 , with Mo et al. 27 and Walker et al. 28 finding similar values.”
Self-citationBiomass and Land Use in a Decarbonizing US Economy
Leslie-Bole, H., Denvir, A., Lashof, D., Scafidi, A., & Ribeiro, C. M. (2025) · doi:10.46830/wriwp.24.00033 · Cited by 3
Stocker, B. D., Yu, Z., & Joos, F. (2018) · Past Global Change Magazine · doi:10.22498/pages.26.1.6 · Cited by 3
Filho, J. A. C., & Leal, G. A. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-13-7264-3_8 · Cited by 3
Marques, L. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-47527-7_7 · Cited by 3
Effects of Organic Agriculture on the Soil Carbon Stock
Lorenz, K. E., & Lal, R. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-17215-1_2 · Cited by 4
Yan, L., Meng, S., Yang, F., Dai, X., & Wang, H. (2023) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f14030602 · Cited by 3
Evaluation and economic value of Hedera colchica in urban land management
Mirhosseini, M. S., Saeb, K., Kiadaliri, M., & Rahnavard, A. (2023) · CLEAN - Soil Air Water · doi:10.1002/clen.202200279 · Cited by 3
Richardson, K. A. K., & Rosing, M. T. (2023) · Mathematics online first collections · doi:10.1007/16618_2023_70 · Cited by 3
Ocena wielofunkcyjnej gospodarki leśnej w Polsce na tle wybranych krajów Unii Europejskiej
Słupska, A., & Zawadzka, A. (2023) · Agronomy Science · doi:10.24326/as.2022.4.3 · Cited by 3
Praticò, S., Solano, F., Piovesan, G., & Modica, G. (2023) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-37129-5_17 · Cited by 3
Negative Emissions From Stopping Deforestation and Forest Degradation
Houghton, R. A. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.11889-5 · Cited by 3
Why Should We Care So Much About Old World Tropical Rainforests?
Abrams, R. W., & Abrams, J. F. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.11969-4 · Cited by 3
Finlayson, C., Hethcoat, M. G., Cannon, P. G., Bryant, R. G., Yusah, K. M., Edwards, D. P., & Freckleton, R. P. (2023) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121648 · Cited by 2
The Ecology and Management of the Coffee Forests of Ethiopia
Senbeta, F. (2024) · Advances in global change research · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-73136-5_12 · Cited by 2
Li, Y., Lan, A., Xiong, K., Zhang, W., Xiang, S., & Zhang, B. (2025) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.71168 · Cited by 3
“…grassland degradation in other regions is primarily driven by unpredictable land-use patterns, such as overgrazing (Ganguli and O'Rourke 2022; Erb et al. 2018), mineral exploitation (Qi et al. 2022), and excessive mowing (Bartold et al. 2024), all of which contribute to ecosystem…”
Carbon Footprints of Indian Forest Degradation and Deforestation
Bijlwan, A., Singh, M., Agrawal, T., & Ranjan, R. (2025) · Forestry sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-84055-5_4 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Erb, K.-H., Kastner, T., Plutzar, C., Bais, A. L. S., Carvalhais, N., Fetzel, T., Gingrich, S., Haberl, H., Lauk, C., Niedertscheider, M., Pongratz, J., Thurner, M., & Luyssaert, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Klagenfurt (AT)
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Erb, Karl-Heinz
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2017-12-20
- Volume
- 553
- Issue
- 7686
- Pages
- 73-76
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC5756473
- OpenAlex
- W2780388729
- Cited by
- 727
- References
- 79
- Citations by year
- 2026: 56 · 2025: 77 · 2024: 111 · 2023: 101 · 2022: 131 · 2021: 78 · 2020: 80 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 31
- FWCI
- 32.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (640176, H2020, 263522, UID/AMB/04085/2013)
- Vetenskapsrådet (621‐2014‐4266)
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (640176)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest ecology and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- terrestrial carbon stocks, plant biomass, land use change, deforestation, forest management, grazing, carbon loss, climate change mitigation, biomass energy, tropical forests, temperate forests, carbon verification
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Animal Husbandry, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Human Activities, Plants, Trees, Tropical Climate, Forestry, Biomass, Uncertainty, Internationality, Global Warming, Carbon Sequestration, Forests
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