Cited by 196Fire effects on ecosystemsHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesWater resources management and optimization

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 52 of the 52 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 1 of the 32 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Burned forests impact water supplies

Open access

Abstract

Wildland fire impacts on surface freshwater resources have not previously been measured, nor factored into regional water management strategies. But, large wildland fires are increasing and raise concerns about fire impacts on potable water. Here we synthesize long-term records of wildland fire, climate, and river flow for 168 locations across the United States. We show that annual river flow changed in 32 locations, where more than 19% of the basin area was burned. Wildland fires enhanced annual river flow in the western regions with a warm temperate or humid continental climate. Wildland fires increased annual river flow most in the semi-arid Lower Colorado region, in spite of frequent droughts in this region. In contrast, prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast did not significantly alter river flow. These extremely variable outcomes offer new insights into the potential role of wildfire and prescribed fire in regional water resource management, under a changing climate.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This study synthesizes 30 years of wildland fire, climate, and river-flow records for 168 US locations and finds that large fires can increase annual river flow, especially in the western US, when burned area exceeds a critical threshold. Prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast did not significantly alter river flow.

Key findings

  • Annual river flow changed in 32 locations where more than 19% of the basin area was burned; the critical relative burned-area threshold identified was BARt = 19%.
  • Wildland fires enhanced annual river flow in western warm temperate or humid continental climates, most strongly in the semi-arid Lower Colorado region despite frequent droughts; four Arizona rivers with BAR >39% increased flow by more than +128%, while Pacific Northwest rivers increased by +24% (median of 6 rivers) and one Texas-Gulf river by +98%.
  • For the CONUS as a whole, fire-affected locations showed a median river-flow decline of −5.9 mm (−5.7%), alongside a median precipitation decline of −23.1 mm (−2.3%); at the CONUS scale for BAR ≥1%, fire influence on river flow was typically <1% and was overshadowed by climate, topography, and land cover.
  • Prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast did not significantly alter river flow; 90% were smaller than the critical BARt = 19%, and severe tropical weather in 2006 and 2008 complicated attribution in that region.

Methods

  • The authors combined MTBS fire and burn-severity data (1984–2014), GAGES-II river-flow and watershed data, Daymet v3 and PRISM climate data, GMTED2010 topography, and NLCD 2001 land cover. The plenary set included 168 burned watersheds with BAR ≥1% burned in any single year between 1984 and 2008, with drainage areas between 10 and 100,000 km².
  • River-flow disturbance was detected with a change-point model using the non-parametric Lepage statistic on monthly Q, and water-yield-ratio disturbance was detected with double-mass analysis and Chow’s F-test.
  • Gradient boosting with 49 variables was used to identify the critical burned-area threshold BARt, and climate elasticity models were fitted to attribute observed river-flow change to climate versus wildland fire; attribution was performed for 32 burned watersheds with BAR ≥19% and a detected breakpoint.

Limitations

  • The paper states that MTBS is the best available dataset for this analysis but contains only fires larger than 405 ha in the West and 202 ha in the East, and that burn-severity classification thresholds are uncertain, especially for moderate and high severity.
  • The paper states that climate elasticity models were not significant for four burned watersheds because only pre-fire annual data were used, that severe tropical weather events in the South Atlantic-Gulf region complicated attribution and may mean outcomes there do not reflect actual fire impact, and that some western watersheds may have been affected by additional disturbances such as beetle outbreaks.
  • Evident from the reported sample sizes: the attribution subset was small and overwhelmingly western (32 of 43 burned watersheds with BAR ≥19%; east n = 4), limiting regional inference for the eastern US.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41467-018-03735-6

Cites

52 of 52 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Figures

Fig. 1 Change of annual river flow in US watersheds burned at any time between 1985 and 2008. Percentage observed change in 5-year mean annual river flow (a), percentage change attributed to climate (b), and percentage attributed to wildland fire (c). Attribution was performed using climate elasticity models fitted for each watershed individually (n = 32 burned watersheds with BAR ≥ 19%)
Fig. 1 Change of annual river flow in US watersheds burned at any time between 1985 and 2008. Percentage observed change in 5-year mean annual river flow (a), percentage change attributed to climate (b), and percentage attributed to wildland fire (c). Attribution was performed using climate elasticity models fitted for each watershed individually (n = 32 burned watersheds with BAR ≥ 19%)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2 Ratios of watershed area burned to watershed drainage area. Shown are US watersheds burned between 1985 and 2008 (n = 168 burned watersheds with BAR ≥ 1%)
Fig. 2 Ratios of watershed area burned to watershed drainage area. Shown are US watersheds burned between 1985 and 2008 (n = 168 burned watersheds with BAR ≥ 1%)CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3 CONUS-East-west comparison of post-fire change in annual river flow. Percentage change in 5-year mean annual river flow observed (dQ) attributed to climate (dQ[climate]) and fire (dQ [fire]), respectively, for watersheds burned between 1985 and 2008 (BAR ≥ 19%). Results are summarized for the CONUS (n = 32) and for the regions west (n = 28) and east (n = 4) of the Mississippi River, respectively. Whiskers extend to the most extreme value no more than 1.5× interquartile range from the box
Fig. 3 CONUS-East-west comparison of post-fire change in annual river flow. Percentage change in 5-year mean annual river flow observed (dQ) attributed to climate (dQ[climate]) and fire (dQ [fire]), respectively, for watersheds burned between 1985 and 2008 (BAR ≥ 19%). Results are summarized for the CONUS (n = 32) and for the regions west (n = 28) and east (n = 4) of the Mississippi River, respectively. Whiskers extend to the most extreme value no more than 1.5× interquartile range from the boxCC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 4 Framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on river flow. Q: river flow, P: precipitation, σPm²: monthly precipitation variance, SWE: snow water equivalent, PET: potential evapotranspiration, BAR: burned area to drainage area ratio, Lmax: maximized value of the Lepage statistic, F: F-statistic, t: t-statistic, α: significance level
Fig. 4 Framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on river flow. Q: river flow, P: precipitation, σPm²: monthly precipitation variance, SWE: snow water equivalent, PET: potential evapotranspiration, BAR: burned area to drainage area ratio, Lmax: maximized value of the Lepage statistic, F: F-statistic, t: t-statistic, α: significance levelCC BY · PubMed Central

Verification

Claims the paper makes

49 Own result · 17 Not checked yet · 10 No basis given · 8 Own interpretation · 2 Own method · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured

Verify all 31 references — free account

Show all 65 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 20
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 4
22 of 22
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Wildland fire impacts on surface freshwater resources have not previously been measured, nor factored into regional water management strategies.

    “Wildland fire impacts on surface freshwater resources have not previously been measured, nor factored into regional water management strategies.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Large wildland fires are increasing and raise concerns about fire impacts on potable water.

    “But, large wildland fires are increasing and raise concerns about fire impacts on potable water.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Wildfire seasons in the US are becoming longer due to recurring drought, coupled with more ignition sources and available fuel.

    “Wildfire seasons in the US are becoming longer due to recurring drought, coupled with more ignition sources and available fuel.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Prescribed burns are generally conducted during favorable weather and vegetation conditions.

    “Prescribed burns are generally conducted during favorable weather and vegetation conditions.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    High wind speeds and low humidity levels in the lower atmosphere and in vegetation allow fires to spread rapidly.

    “High wind speeds and low humidity levels in the lower atmosphere and in vegetation, allow fires to spread rapidly”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Vegetation mortality increases runoff.

    “mainly because vegetation mortality increases runoff”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Wildland fire was the principal cause of river flow disturbance in watersheds where BAR ≥ BARt.

    “Wildland fire was presumed the principal cause of in watersheds where BAR ≥ BARt, although some western watersheds may have been affected by additional disturbances not accounted for, e.g., beetle outbreaks.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    River flow disturbance was associated with the fire, so that a detected change point within one year following the fire indicates fire-associated disturbance.

    “The null hypothesis was rejected if this timing occurred within one year following the fire assuming that river flow disturbance was associated with the fire.”
8 of 8

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Citations

Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Sankarasubramanian, A., Vogel, R. M. & Limbrunner, J. F. Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States. Water Resour. Res. 37, 1771–1781 (2001). · DOI · Paper page

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Metadata

Authors
Hallema, D. W., Sun, G., Caldwell, P. V., Norman, S. P., Cohen, E. C., Liu, Y., Bladon, K. D., & McNulty, S. G.
Affiliations
  • US Forest Service (US)
  • Oregon State University (US)
Corresponding author
  • Hallema, Dennis W.
  • Sun, Ge
Venue
Nature Communications
Published
2018-04-10
Volume
9
Issue
1
Pages
1307-1307
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2797232962
Cited by
193
References
52
Citations by year
2026: 17 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 7
FWCI
10.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DE-AC05?, -AC05- 06OR23100, DE-AC05- 06OR23100)
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture (DE‐AC05‐06OR23100)
  • Oak Ridge Associated Universities (DE-AC05-06OR23100)
  • Joint Fire Science Program (14-1-06-18)
  • Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (#DE-AC05-06OR23100)
  • U.S. Forest Service
  • Southern Research Station
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Water resources management and optimization
Keywords
forest fires, burned forest, river discharge, water supply, drinking water, prescribed burning, climate, water resources management, drought, Lower Colorado River Basin, American West

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