Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011
Abstract
We used a database capturing large wildfires (> 405 ha) in the western U.S. to document regional trends in fire occurrence, total fire area, fire size, and day of year of ignition for 1984–2011. Over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km 2 per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire‐prone regions of the world.
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Wildfires in the United States have increased in frequency since the mid-1980s.
“Wildfires in the United States (U.S.) have increased in frequency since the mid-1980s (Dennison et al., 2014; Miller et al., 2012; Singleton et al., 2019).”
From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Dennison et al., 2014
The increase in U.S. wildfire frequency is most pronounced in the western U.S.
“This is most pronounced in the western U.S. (Dennison et al., 2014; Singleton et al., 2019)”
From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Dennison et al., 2014
Much of the increase in wildfire frequency and area burned has been correlated with drier conditions, earlier snowmelt, and severe droughts associated with climate change.
“Much of the increase in wildfire frequency and area burned has been correlated with drier conditions, earlier snowmelt (especially at mid elevations) and severe droughts associated with climate change (Abatzoglou & Williams, 2016; Dennison et al., 2014; Holden et al., 2018; Westerling, 2016).”
From Wildfire Induces Changes in Receiving Waters: A Review With Considerations for Water Quality Management (2022) · cites this paper as Dennison et al., 2014
It is unclear how the current fire pattern affects water availability at the regional or continental scale.
“However, it is unclear how this fire pattern affects water availability at the regional or continental scale1–4.”
From Burned forests impact water supplies (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
MTBS has been the dataset of choice in studies on CONUS-wide trends in burn severity and area, forest disturbance, and vegetation type conversion after wildland fire.
“MTBS has been the dataset of choice in studies on CONUS-wide trends in burn severity and area28,29, forest disturbance30, and vegetation type conversion after wildland fire31.”
From Burned forests impact water supplies (2018) · cites this paper as [28]
The growth in large western US fires is probably caused by climate and fuel changes, not ignition sources.
“This finding is consistent with other studies that have demonstrated an increase in large fires across the western United States (6, 7, 40), likely as a consequence of changes in climate and fuels rather than ignitions.”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [40]
Over recent decades, warmer and drier conditions beginning earlier have increased fire activity in the western United States.
“In the past few decades, early onset of warmer and drier conditions has promoted greater fire activity across the western United States (6, 7, 40).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [40]
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- Authors
- Dennison, P. E., Brewer, S. C., Arnold, J. D., & Moritz, M. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Utah (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-04-25
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2928-2933
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1951684732
- Cited by
- 1,322
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 78 · 2025: 106 · 2024: 128 · 2023: 133 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 180 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 116 · 2018: 97 · 2017: 69 · 2016: 65 · 2015: 46 · 2014: 14
- FWCI
- 53.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Interior Bureau of Land Management (L11AC20280)
- National Science Foundation (CMMI-IMEE 1100890)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- large wildfires, fire trends, fire area, fire size, fire seasonality, drought severity, fire regimes, ecoregions, American West, climate change, invasive species, fire management
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