The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
Open accessAbstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.
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Claims the paper makes
10 of 15 cited sources checked · 8 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Detection and attribution studies seldom estimate the associated human health impacts.
“These studies are often conducted in the climate science disciplines and rarely take the additional step of estimating associated human health impacts9–11.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites [9] Ebi, K. L., Ogden, N. H., Semenza, J. C. & Woodward, A. Detecting and attributing health burdens to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 085004 (2017). source
- cites [10] Mitchell, D. et al. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074006 (2016). source
- cites [11] Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751–4768 (2019). source
- Findingown data
In the counterfactual scenario, heat-related mortality averaged 0.98% (95% CI 0.26-1.80) of all warm-season deaths across all locations.
“there was less heat-related mortality in all countries under the counterfactual scenario, with an average estimate of 0.98% (95% CI, 0.26–1.80) across all locations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Findingown data
Attributable mortality was evident on every inhabited continent represented in the study.
“increased mortality is evident on every continent”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“Impacts were evident in all of our study countries, which included locations on every inhabited continent”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
- Findingown data
Country-specific average temperature increases ranged from about 0.5°C in Argentina to more than 1°C in Iran, Kuwait, parts of South and Central America, and northern Europe.
“the country-specific average temperature increase ranged from ~0.5 °C in Argentina to >1 °C in Iran, Kuwait, some countries in South and Central America and North of Europe”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Findingown data
The population-level burden of heat-related deaths attributable to human-induced climate change was relatively heavy in southern and eastern Europe, where several countries had rates above 6 per 100,000 over 1991-2018 versus a study average of 2.2 per 100,000.
“indicating a relatively heavy population-level burden in southern and eastern Europe, where rates in several countries are >6 per 100,000 population over the 1991–2018 period compared to the study average of 2.2 per 100,000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Findingown data
The largest climate change-induced contributions, exceeding 50%, occurred in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand), and several Central and South American countries.
“The largest climate change-induced contributions (>50%) were in southern and western Asia (Iran and Kuwait), southeast Asia (Philippines and Thailand) and several countries in Central and South America”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Findingown data
Across the study countries, 37.0% of warm-season heat-related deaths are attributable to anthropogenic climate change.
“Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
“The overall estimate is 37.0% but this percentage varied widely across subregions and countries.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · plain
- Findingown data
Many locations experienced attributable heat-related mortality burdens of roughly tens to hundreds of deaths annually.
“Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations.”
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
“in many locations, the attributable mortality is already on the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths each year”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Also stated in: § Heat-mortality impacts attributed to climate change · boosted
- Findingown data
Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario averaged 1.56% (95% CI 0.62-2.41) of all warm-season deaths.
“Across all locations, heat-related mortality in the factual scenario amounted to an average of 1.56% (95% CI, 0.62–2.41) of all warm-season deaths”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Study design and conductown data
The study could not include locations in all world regions, such as large parts of Africa and South Asia, because empirical data needed to estimate exposure-response functions were lacking.
“we were not able to include locations in all world regions—for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia—due to a lack of the empirical data needed to estimate the exposure-response functions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The climate has already been altered by human activity.
“Human activity has already changed the climate1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Study design and conductown data
The location sample may not represent country-specific average effects, since some countries were represented by only one or two cities.
“estimates should not necessarily be considered representative of country-specific average effects, as the study included a sample of locations which, in some cases, were restricted to one or two cities”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
A substantial share of total and heat-related deaths during the study period is attributable to human-induced climate change.
“Taken together, our findings demonstrate that a substantial proportion of total and heat-related deaths during our study period can be attributed to human-induced climate change”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
- Study design and conductown data
The methodology accounted for uncertainty from estimating exposure-response functions and variability across climate models.
“The methodology allowed us to properly account for the uncertainty that arose from estimating the exposure-response functions and the variability across climate models”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
- May combine two claims. 12
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductcitationTemperature series were bias-corrected using local weather station data following a published method.
“Location-specific temperature series were extracted from the gridded products on the basis of the corresponding centroid and bias-corrected following a method described elsewhere19.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J. & Piontek, F. A trend-preserving bias correction—the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219–236 (2013). source
Section 3 describes a method for bias-correcting simulated temperature series against observations. The Observations section identifies the reference as WATCH Forcing Data, a gridded observational dataset, not local weather-station data. The citing sentence itself attributes the correction method—not the use of station data—to this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationDAMIP is designed to assess individual contributions of external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate.
“DAMIP is part of the CMIP6 and was specifically designed to allow for the assessment of the individual contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate17,18.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [17] Gillett, N. P. et al. The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685–3697 (2016). source
- cites [18] Gillett, N. P. et al. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since preindustrial. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 207–212 (2021). source
The ‘Attribution of global mean temperature changes’ section identifies DAMIP as part of CMIP6 and describes experiments separating historical natural, aerosol, and greenhouse-gas forcings. It supports assessing individual contributions to past global temperature change, but does not establish the claimed design purpose for future changes or regional climate. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationModel choices for the cross-basis and control terms were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network.
“These choices that specify the cross-basis and model terms used to control for long-term and seasonal trends were based on related studies from the MCC Collaborative Research Network20,24.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
- cites [24] Gasparrini, A. et al. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ. Health Perspect. 123, 1200–1207 (2015). source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationHeat-related mortality risks tend to appear soon after exposure and vanish within 10 days.
“Prior research has demonstrated that heat risks tend to occur quickly after exposure and then disappear within 10 d (ref. 20).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] Gasparrini, A. et al. Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: a multicountry analysis. Am. J. Epidemiol. 183, 1027–1036 (2016). source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationExposure to high outdoor temperatures is linked to illness and a higher risk of premature death.
“An immediate and direct impact of climate change is through human exposure to high outdoor temperatures, which is associated with morbidity and an increased risk of premature death (mortality)2–4.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites [2] Gasparrini, A. et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386, 369–375 (2015). source
- cites [3] Hsiang, S. et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science 356, 1362–1369 (2017). source
- cites [4] Ye, X. et al. Ambient temperature and morbidity: a review of epidemiological evidence. Environ. Health Perspect. 120, 19–28 (2012). source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataCountry-specific heat-related mortality fractions in the factual scenario ranged from below 1% (e.g., USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan, South Korea) to above 5% in Southern Europe.
“The country-specific estimates ranged from <1% (for example, the USA, Colombia, Sweden, Norway, UK, Japan and South Korea) to >5% in countries of Southern Europe”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe average temperature difference between factual and counterfactual scenarios over 1991-2018 was about 0.8°C, with strong regional variation.
“Warming is also reflected in the overall temperature difference between scenarios over the study period (1991–2018), with ~0.8 °C increase on average and strong differences across regions of the world”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAcross the 732 locations, average warm-season temperature in the factual scenario rose from about 21.5°C at the end of the twentieth century to nearly 23°C in the 2010s, while the counterfactual scenario stayed near 21.5°C.
“Across the 732 locations, the annual average temperature in the warm season in the factual scenario increased from nearly 21.5 °C at the end of the twentieth century to almost 23 °C in the 2010s, whereas in the counterfactual scenario, annual temperatures remained relatively stable at around 21.5 °C”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe overall attributable fraction of 0.58% (95% CI 0.24-1.14) of all warm-season deaths corresponds to an average of 9,702 (95% CI 4,005-19,135) deaths across the 732 locations.
“The overall estimate that 0.58% (95% CI: 0.24–1.14) of all warm-season deaths are attributable to climate change translates to an average of 9,702 (95% CI, 4,005–19,135) deaths across the 732 locations”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataHeat-related mortality risks at the 99th percentile temperature versus the optimum ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 across the 732 locations, with only 28 locations below 1.
“Heat-related mortality risks ranged from 0.97 to 2.47 but with only 28 of the 732 locations <1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataCountry-specific attributable deaths show a north-south pattern within regions, with less than 1% of total deaths in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia and larger contributions in southern Europe, southern and western Asia, and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.
“Country-specific estimates (Fig. 4b) show a clear north-south pattern within regions; human-induced climate change attributable deaths are <1% of total deaths for countries in northern subregions of America, Europe and Asia, while larger contributions were observed in southern Europe, southern and western Asia and some countries in southeast Asia and South America.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataLarger heat-related mortality risks occurred in Europe, especially Western and Central Europe, while most locations in Asia and the Americas had estimates below 1.5.
“Larger risks are observed in the European region, in particular the Western and Central area of the continent, while smaller estimates <1.5 were found in most locations in Asia and the Americas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. The quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductown dataUncertainty was quantified by Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000 BLUP coefficient samples, with empirical confidence intervals accounting for exposure-response imprecision and model variability.
“We obtained empirical confidence intervals corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the empirical distribution of the heat-related mortality impacts across coefficients and models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataAnthropogenic climate change is already producing non-trivial health burdens that are geographically widespread.
“We have demonstrated that health burdens from anthropogenic climate change are occurring, are geographically widespread and are non-trivial”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
- Rests on an assumption: The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe dataset's broad and heterogeneous geographic coverage enabled assessment of spatial patterns and identification of disproportionately affected areas.
“the wide and heterogeneous geographical scope of our dataset allowed us to assess spatial patterns in the estimated impacts and to identify areas that have already been disproportionately affected.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationSeveral high-population regions have warmed by more than 2°C, while others have warmed relatively little.
“several high-population regions have warmed by >2 °C, while others have experienced relatively little change1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationGlobal mean surface temperature is about 1°C above the pre-industrial level.
“The world is now an average of ~1°C above the pre-industrial era”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
The paper relies on this without support.
No large-scale, systematic studies had already quantified the heat-related health impacts of climate change.
“there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The counterfactual climate simulations, driven only by natural forcings, approximate a world without human-induced climate change.
“a counterfactual scenario where climate simulations are driven by natural forcings only, thus approximating the climate that would have occurred in a world without human-induced or anthropogenic climate change16.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The exposure-response functions estimated from observed data apply to the modelled temperature series under both scenarios.
“we used the estimated exposure-response functions to compute the heat-related mortality burden between 1991 and 2018 for each location under two scenarios”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The difference in heat-related mortality between factual and counterfactual scenarios represents the proportion of warm-season deaths attributable to human-induced climate change.
“The difference between the factual and counterfactual scenarios is interpretable as the proportion of total deaths during the warm season attributable to human-induced climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study is the largest attribution study so far on climate change health impacts.
“To our knowledge, this is the largest attribution study to date on the health impacts of climate change.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The MCC database is the largest consortium of weather and health data assembled so far.
“The observed temperature and mortality data were collected through the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, the largest weather and health data consortium to date (https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk).”
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Self-citationClassic and exertional heatstroke
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Climate change and health: three grand challenges
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Rising temperatures erode human sleep globally
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Humidity’s Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate
Baldwin, J. W., Benmarhnia, T., Ebi, K. L., Jay, O., Lutsko, N. J., & Vanos, J. (2023) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp11807 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
“…r ) between near-surface T a and speci fi c humidity anomalies from HadISD, 88 overlaid with locations of the same epidemiological data as Figure 3A 10 ; anomalies are calculated by subtracting the corresponding daily resolution seasonal cycles from temperature and speci fi c humidity at each…”
InfluentialRapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
Lüthi, S., Fairless, C., Fischer, E. M., Scovronick, N., Armstrong, B., Coêlho, M. D. S. Z. S., Guo, Y. L., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Huber, V., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x · Cited by 284 · see citing works
“Heat-related mortality corresponds to the average fraction of daily deaths attributed to heat during days with mean temperature above the MMT.”
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Self-citationGlobal climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions
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“Climate change has been regarded as the single largest global health challenge in the 21st century by affecting the physical environment and ecosystem and their interactions with human beings [3,5,6].”
BackgroundSelf-citationIntegrated Assessment of Urban Overheating Impacts on Human Life
Nazarian, N., Krayenhoff, E. S., Bechtel, B., Hondula, D. M., Paolini, R., Vanos, J., Cheung, T. C. T., Chow, W., de Dear, R., Jay, O., et al. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef002682 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
“3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths across 43 countries (many high-income) globally from 1991 to 2018 can be attributed to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021); hence, even with adaptive capacity increases, 1/3 of lives lost may not have occurred without climate change.”
BackgroundSelf-citationClimate Change, Extreme Heat, and Health
Bell, M. L., Gasparrini, A., & Benjamin, G. C. (2024) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmra2210769 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth
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Treatment and Prevention of Heat-Related Illness
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Climate change and global issues in allergy and immunology
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Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future
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“People with cardiovascular and/or respiratory chronic illnesses are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures (183).”
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
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Urban Heat Island and Its Interaction with Heatwaves: A Review of Studies on Mesoscale
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Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale
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“Moreover, following literature 20,24,26–29 , our study focuses on temperature as the environmental exposure variable of interest.”
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“More recently, Vicedo and colleagues 31 use mortality and weather data from 732 locations in 43 countries during 1991–2018 to attribute 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths to anthropogenic climate change.”
The Regenerative Lens: A conceptual framework for regenerative social-ecological systems
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Self-citationIncreasing Heat‐Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate
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Association of Extreme Heat With All-Cause Mortality in the Contiguous US, 2008-2017
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Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health
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“Similarly, we computed 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the regional heat-related mortality numbers and separately aggregated them in each simulation to calculate the 95% CIs at the national and European levels 21,33 .”
Risk factors associated with heatwave mortality in Chinese adults over 65 years
Xi, D., Liu, L., Zhang, M., Huang, C., Burkart, K. G., Ebi, K. L., Zeng, Y., & Ji, J. S. (2024) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-024-02880-4 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Extended two-stage designs for environmental research
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“Early applications of the two-stage design considered a small number of locations within a country, but the increased availability of environmental measures and health data now allows studies that include hundreds of locations within several countries [18, 19, 39].”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citationJoint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries
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“The latter has been associated with an important increase in heat-related deaths in the twenty-first century 2,9 .”
Self-citationGlobal projections of heat exposure of older adults
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“In addition to physical, physiological, and psychological conditions, population aging, preexisting structural inequalities in income and in health, and limited availability of and access to basic services and information are key moderators of temperature impacts on human health 39 – 41 .”
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The (Un)political Perspective on Climate Change in Education—A Systematic Review
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Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review
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“A global study suggests that more than a third of all heat-related deaths in the last three decades are attributable to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
BackgroundFuture Population Exposure to Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves in South Asia
Ullah, S., You, Q., Chen, D., Sachindra, D. A., AghaKouchak, A., Kang, S., Li, M., Zhai, P., & Ullah, W. (2022) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002511 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
“Moreover, this study used the total population of the study area, without considering the urban and rural differences, which may also affect the extent of exposure, as urban sites are likely to be at higher risk of HWs (Batibeniz et al., 2020; Rohat et al., 2019; Scovronick et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2019).”
BackgroundMethodInequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050
Falchetta, G., Cian, E. D., Pavanello, F., & Wing, I. S. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52028-8 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
“14 provides a summary of regional trajectories, while Supple-mentaryTables 8, 9 report country-level statisticsfor the projected AC ownership and AC electricity consumption, as well as the corresponding Gini indexes of within-country inequality.”
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Public Health Preparedness for Extreme Heat Events
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“These occurrences are giving rise to extensive ecological and socio-economic damages, with the expectation of potential exacerbation in the future, leading to height - ened frequency and increased severity of ecological disasters (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021; Vitousek et al. 2017).”
Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers
Parsons, L. A., Masuda, Y. J., Kroeger, T., Shindell, D. T., Wolff, N. H., & Spector, J. T. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac3dae · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events: How Health Systems Should Prepare
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Self-citationSeasonally disparate responses of surface thermal environment to 2D/3D urban morphology
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Combined impacts of climate and air pollution on human health and agricultural productivity
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Electrochemical valorization of captured CO 2 : recent advances and future perspectives
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On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
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Urbanization and regional climate change-linked warming of Indian cities
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“In a warming climate threatened by anthropogenic climate change 2 , urban areas are highly vulnerable to the compounding effects of both urbanization and climate change.”
The Climate Change Crisis: A Review of Its Causes and Possible Responses
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“These extreme weather events have increased human morbidity mortality [14,15] and contributed to forced human migration [16], especially in These impacts include: changes in the growth and distribution of plants [7], animals and insects [8]; ocean acidification [9] and poleward shifts in the…”
Schumacher, D. L., Singh, J., Hauser, M., Fischer, E. M., Wild, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
“4,45).”
The cost of mitigation revisited
Köberle, A. C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., & Rogelj, J. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
“Impacts include loss of agricultural productivity 15 ; heat-induced mortality and morbidity 16,17 and loss of labour productivity 18,19 ; infrastructure losses from extreme events and sea-level rise 20 ; biodiversity losses 21 , and many others 22 .”
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Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events
Matthews, T. K. R., Raymond, C., Foster, J., Baldwin, J. W., Ivanovich, C. C., Kong, Q., Kinney, P. L., & Horton, R. (2025) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-024-00635-w · Cited by 112 · see citing works
“…models (using daily mean Ta to characterize heat and considering lagged effects of exposure 110 ) suggest that ~1% of all deaths during 1990–2019 worldwide were caused by Ta above an optimum level 111 , with approximately 37% of this total attributable to anthropogenic climate change 112 .”
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Heat-related mortality in Germany from 1992 to 2021
Winklmayr, C., Muthers, S., Niemann, H., Mücke, H., & der Heiden, M. A. (2022) · Deutsches Ärzteblatt international · doi:10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0202 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Sustainable and Resilient Health Care in the Face of a Changing Climate
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Estimates of country level temperature-related mortality damage functions
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Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States
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Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review
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“And for countries of Southern Europe heat-related mortality makes up>5% of warm-season deaths [9].”
BackgroundNocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk
He, C., Breitner, S., Zhang, S., Huber, V., Naumann, M. K., Traidl‐Hoffmann, C., Hammel, G., Peters, A., Ertl, M., & Schneider, A. E. (2024) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehae277 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
“9,21 We also explored the lag response curves with a natural cubic B-spline with an intercept and three internal knots placed at equally spaced values in the log scale, with a maximum lag of up to 7 days (Lag 0–6).”
MethodSelf-citationDeploy heat officers, policies and metrics
Keith, L., Meerow, S., Hondula, D. M., Turner, V. K., & Arnott, J. C. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02677-2 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Self-citationA functional vulnerability framework for biodiversity conservation
Auber, A., Waldock, C. A., Maire, A., Goberville, É., Albouy, C. P., Algar, A. C., McLean, M. J., Brind’Amour, A., Green, A. L., Tupper, M. H., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32331-y · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Impact of climate change on immune responses and barrier defense
Skevaki, C. L., Nadeau, K. C., Rothenberg, M. E., Alahmad, B., Mmbaga, B. T., Masenga, G. G., Sampath, V., Christiani, D. C., Haahtela, T., & Renz, H. E. (2024) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2024.01.016 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Self-citationde Schrijver, E., Bundo, M., Ragettli, M. S., Sera, F., Gasparrini, A., Franco, O. H., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2022) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp9835 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
“Moreover, a recent international assessment found that 37% of heat-related deaths can be attributed to human-induced climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021).”
Self-citationSocial inequalities in exposure to heat stress and related adaptive capacity: a systematic review
Slesinski, S. C., Matthies‐Wiesler, F., Breitner, S., Gussmann, G., & Schneider, A. E. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adb509 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, J., Kim, H., Hashizume, M., Lee, W., Honda, Y., Kim, S. E., He, C., Kan, H., & Chen, R. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-56067-7 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“The cross-basis function of CEHWI employed a natural cubic spline with two internal knots positioned at the 50th and 90th percentiles of city-speci fi c CEHWI distributions 57 .”
Self-citationTracking progress on health and climate change in Europe
Romanello, M. B., van Daalen, K. R., Antó, J. M., Dasandi, N., Drummond, P., Hamilton, I., Mikhaylov, S., Kendrovski, V., Lowe, R., Rocklöv, J., et al. (2021) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00207-3 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Palinkas, L. A., Hurlburt, M. S., Fernandez, C., Leon, J. D., Yu, K., Salinas, E., Garcia, E., Johnston, J., Rahman, M. M., Silva, S. J., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph191711090 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate crisis, cities, and health
Nieuwenhuijsen, M. J. (2024) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01934-2 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
de Schrijver, E., Bundo, M., Ragettli, M. S., Sera, F., Gasparrini, A., Franco, O. H., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2022) · doi:10.48350/167234 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationCultured meat and the sustainable development goals
Nobre, F. S. (2022) · Trends in Food Science & Technology · doi:10.1016/j.tifs.2022.04.011 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Meade, R. D., Notley, S. R., Akerman, A. P., McGarr, G. W., Richards, B. J., McCourt, E. R., King, K. E., McCormick, J. J., Boulay, P., Sigal, R. J., et al. (2023) · Journal of Applied Physiology · doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00227.2023 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country
Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D., Buzan, J., Jakob Zscheischler, A., Schneider, R., Mistry, M., Kyselý, J., Lavigne, É., Silva, S. P., Royé, D., et al. (2023) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8160 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“…then apply it to past observations or future projections, for the purpose of attributing past heat-related deaths to human-induced climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), monitoring heatwave mortality in near real time (Lo et al., 2022), or projecting future impacts (Guo et al., 2018; Lo…”
InfluentialSelf-citationIntegrating CFD-GIS modelling to refine urban heat and thermal comfort assessment
Back, Y., Kumar, P., Bach, P. M., Rauch, W. A., & Kleidorfer, M. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159729 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“An increasing time of exposure to an uncomfortable amount of heat can be particularly dangerous and potentially fatal for the young, unhealthy, and elderly people as well as for those performing intense physical work under prolonged exposure (Rydin et al., 2012; Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021).”
Spatio-temporal development of the urban heat island in a socioeconomically diverse tropical city
Ramsay, E. E., Duffy, G. A., Burge, K., Taruc, R. R., Fleming, G. M., Faber, P. A., & Chown, S. L. (2022) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120443 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Understanding systemic cooling poverty
Mazzone, A., Cian, E. D., Falchetta, G., Jani, A. R., Mistry, M., & Khosla, R. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01221-6 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
“Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity around the world 3 with consequent rises in heat-related mortality 4 .”
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Quilcaille, Y., Gudmundsson, L., Schumacher, D. L., Gasser, T., Heede, R., Heri, C., Lejeune, Q., Nath, S., Naveau, P., Thiery, W., et al. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
“Nevertheless, this attribution framework may be extended to heat-related mortality 44 or economic damages 24 .”
Xian, G., Shi, H., Zhou, Q., Auch, R. F., Gallo, K. P., Wu, Z., & Kolian, M. J. (2021) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2021.112803 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa
Chapman, S., Birch, C. E., Marsham, J. H., Part, C., Hajat, S., Chersich, M., Ebi, K. L., Luchters, S. M. F., Nakstad, B., & Kovats, S. R. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac7ac5 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Zhao, Y., Sen, S., Susca, T., Iaria, J., Kubilay, A., Gunawardena, K., Zhou, X., Takane, Y., Park, Y., Wang, X., et al. (2023) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.113668 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
On the risks associated with transitioning to climate neutrality in Europe: A city perspective
Ulpiani, G., & Vetters, N. (2023) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.113448 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Massazza, A., Teyton, A., Charlson, F., Benmarhnia, T., & Augustinavicius, J. (2022) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00120-6 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
Alahmad, B., Khraishah, H., Kamineni, M., et al. (2024) · Stroke · doi:10.1161/strokeaha.123.045751 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
“As climate change is driving more extreme temperatures and weather events, urgent attention to clinical care, adaptation, and mitigation is needed to minimize the risk of death from stroke, especially in low-income countries.”
Self-citationGiannaros, C., Agathangelidis, I., Papavasileiou, G., Galanaki, E., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Giannaros, T. M., Cartalis, C., & Matzarakis, A. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159300 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
What is a heat(wave)? An interdisciplinary perspective
Boni, Z., Bienkowska, Z. M., Chwałczyk, F., Jancewicz, B., Marginean, I., & Serrano, P. Y. (2023) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03592-3 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
- Authors
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N., Pascal, M., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Mayvaneh, F., Entezari, A., Goodman, P., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., de’Donato, F., Hashizume, M., Alahmad, B., Diaz, M. H., Valencia, C. D. L. C., Overcenco, A., Houthuijs, D., Ameling, C., Rao, S., Di Ruscio, F., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Seposo, X., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Holobaca, I. H., Fratianni, S., Acquaotta, F., Kim, H., Lee, W., Iniguez, C., Forsberg, B., Ragettli, M. S., Guo, Y. L. L., Chen, B. Y., Li, S., Armstrong, B., Aleman, A., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Dang, T. N., Dung, D. V., Gillett, N., Haines, A., Mengel, M., Huber, V., & Gasparrini, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- Emory University (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- University of Tsukuba (JP)
- Arizona State University (US)
- Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR)
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Los Andes, Chile (CL)
- Fudan University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Tartu (EE)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- University of Oulu (FI)
- Santé Publique France (FR)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (GR)
- Hakim Sabzevari University (IR)
- Technological University Dublin (IE)
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Regione Lazio (IT)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Harvard University (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO)
- Kyoto University (JP)
- National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (PT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- University of Turin (IT)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (CH)
- National Health Research Institutes (TW)
- Universidad de la República de Uruguay (UY)
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City (VN)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- European Space Agency (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Gasparrini, A.
- ORCID
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.
- Scovronick, N.
- Sera, F.
- Royé, D.
- Schneider, R.
- Guo, Y.
- Honda, Y.
- Hondula, D. M.
- Abrutzky, R.
- Tong, S.
- Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
- Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento
- Correa, P. Matus
- Ortega, N. Valdes
- Kan, H.
- Osorio, S.
- Kyselý, J.
- Urban, A.
- Orru, H.
- Indermitte, E.
- Jaakkola, J. J. K.
- Ryti, N.
- Pascal, M.
- Schneider, A.
- Katsouyanni, K.
- Samoli, E.
- Mayvaneh, F.
- Entezari, A.
- Goodman, P.
- Zeka, A.
- Michelozzi, P.
- Hashizume, M.
- Alahmad, B.
- Diaz, M. Hurtado
- Valencia, C. De La Cruz
- Overcenco, A.
- Houthuijs, D.
- Rao, S.
- Carrasco-Escobar, G.
- Seposo, X.
- Silva, S.
- Madureira, J.
- Fratianni, S.
- Acquaotta, F.
- Kim, H.
- Lee, W.
- Forsberg, B.
- Ragettli, M. S.
- Chen, B. Y.
- Li, S.
- Armstrong, B.
- Zanobetti, A.
- Schwartz, J.
- Dang, T. N.
- Dung, D. V.
- Gillett, N.
- Haines, A.
- Mengel, M.
- Huber, V.
- Gasparrini, A.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2021-05-31
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 492-500
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC7611104
- OpenAlex
- W3171801815
- Semantic Scholar
- 54d26db7b47f4929e373af434772c36da4d5260a
- Cited by
- 1,347
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 228 · 2025: 273 · 2024: 266 · 2023: 369 · 2022: 158 · 2021: 50 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 83.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Brunel University Research Archive (BURA) (Brunel University London) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Site cant be reached (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- PuSH - Publication Server of Helmholtz Zentrum München (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion)
- Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Emory University
- Harvard University
- Arizona State University
- Universität Basel
- University of Ottawa
- University of Bern
- Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
- European Space Agency
- European Commission (820655, 310372, HORIZON2020)
- Public Health Agency
- Monash University
- Queensland University of Technology
- Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GA20-28560S)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1201A2)
- Seoul National University
- Anhui Medical University
- Fudan University
- Universitat de València
- Akademie Věd České Republiky
- Università degli Studi di Firenze
- University of Tokyo
- Umeå Universitet
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- Universidade de São Paulo
- Hakim Sabzevari University
- Oulun Yliopisto
- University of Tsukuba
- Universidade do Porto
- Nanjing Medical University
- Tartu Ülikool
- Technological University Dublin
- Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España (PCIN-2017–046)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council (MR/M022625/1, MR/S019669/1, MR/R013349/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R009384/1)
- National Health and Medical Research Council (1163693, 1109193)
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016)
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JPMJSC20E4)
- Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
- School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
- Helmholtz Zentrum München
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES019776)
- Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (JPMJSC20E4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- heat-related mortality, anthropogenic climate change, attributable mortality, anthropogenic warming, health impacts of climate change, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, global health burden
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-09-28.
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