Real-time tracking of self-reported symptoms to predict potential COVID-19
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
A total of 2,618,862 participants reported their potential symptoms of COVID-19 on a smartphone-based app. Among the 18,401 who had undergone a SARS-CoV-2 test, the proportion of participants who reported loss of smell and taste was higher in those with a positive test result (4,668 of 7,178 individuals; 65.03%) than in those with a negative test result (2,436 of 11,223 participants; 21.71%) (odds ratio = 6.74; 95% confidence interval = 6.31-7.21). A model combining symptoms to predict probable infection was applied to the data from all app users who reported symptoms (805,753) and predicted that 140,312 (17.42%) participants are likely to have COVID-19.
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The COVID19 symptom-tracker app has been downloaded by 3.9 million people in the UK and USA and is feeding into national surveillance.
“The COVID19 symptom-tracker app has been downloaded by 3.9 million people in the UK and USA 38 and is feeding into national surveillance.”
From Digital technologies in the public-health response to COVID-19 (2020) · cites this paper as [38]
The Methods (Study setting and participants; page unavailable) confirm that the symptom-tracker app launched in the UK and US, but report 2,618,862 users after three weeks—not 3.9 million downloads. The citation is attached to the download claim; the subsequent statement about national surveillance is not assessed as attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredClinical reports indicate that SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with high rates of disturbances in smell and taste perception, including anosmia.
“Clinical reports suggest that infection with CoV-2 is associated with high rates of disturbances in smell and taste perception, including anosmia (8-13).”
From Non-neuronal expression of SARS-CoV-2 entry genes in the olfactory system suggests mechanisms underlying COVID-19-associated anosmia (2020) · cites this paper as [12]
COVID-19-associated anosmia has high penetrance of smell disorders relative to endemic viruses.
“Any reasonable pathophysiological mechanism for COVID-19-associated anosmia must account for the high penetrance of smell disorders relative to endemic viruses (12, 91, 92), the apparent suddenness of smell loss that can precede the development of other symptoms (11, 13), and the transient nature of dysfunction in many patients (11, 17, 18); definitive identification of the disease mechanisms”
From Non-neuronal expression of SARS-CoV-2 entry genes in the olfactory system suggests mechanisms underlying COVID-19-associated anosmia (2020) · cites this paper as [12]
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- Authors
- Menni, C., Valdes, A. M., Freidin, M. B., Sudre, C. H., Nguyen, L. H., Drew, D. A., Ganesh, S., Varsavsky, T., Cardoso, M. J., El-Sayed Moustafa, J. S., Visconti, A., Hysi, P., Bowyer, R. C. E., Mangino, M., Falchi, M., Wolf, J., Ourselin, S., Chan, A. T., Steves, C. J., & Spector, T. D.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- Harvard University (US)
- ZOE (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Menni, Cristina
- Spector, Tim D.
- ORCID
- Menni, Cristina
- Valdes, Ana M.
- Freidin, Maxim B.
- Sudre, Carole H.
- Nguyen, Long H.
- Drew, David A.
- Ganesh, Sajaysurya
- Varsavsky, Thomas
- Cardoso, M. Jorge
- El-Sayed Moustafa, Julia S.
- Visconti, Alessia
- Hysi, Pirro
- Bowyer, Ruth C. E.
- Mangino, Massimo
- Falchi, Mario
- Wolf, Jonathan
- Chan, Andrew T.
- Steves, Claire J.
- Spector, Tim D.
- Venue
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2020-05-11
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1037-1040
- ISSN
- 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-170X
- PMC
- PMC7751267
- OpenAlex
- W3023519397
- Cited by
- 1,517
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 52 · 2024: 86 · 2023: 185 · 2022: 303 · 2021: 532 · 2020: 336 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 319.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Medicine (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Chronic Disease Research Foundation
- RCUK | Medical Research Council (AIMHY; MR/M016560/1)
- DH | NIHR | Health Services Research Programme
- Alzheimer’s Society (AS-JF-17-011)
- Evergrande COVID-19 Response Fund Reward
- Wellcome Trust (WT203148/Z/16/Z)
- Steele Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, self-reported symptoms, mobile application, loss of taste and smell, anosmia, olfactory dysfunction, infection prediction, contact tracing
- MeSH terms
- Smartphone, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Adult, Aged, Olfaction Disorders, Computer Systems, Cough, Dyspnea, Fatigue, Female, United Kingdom, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Pneumonia, Viral, Prognosis, Severity of Illness Index, Taste Disorders, United States, Coronavirus Infections, Disease Notification, Self Report, Pandemics, Prodromal Symptoms, Mobile Applications
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