Predicting adverse outcomes due to diabetes complications with machine learning using administrative health data
Open accessAbstract
Across jurisdictions, government and health insurance providers hold a large amount of data from patient interactions with the healthcare system. We aimed to develop a machine learning-based model for predicting adverse outcomes due to diabetes complications using administrative health data from the single-payer health system in Ontario, Canada. A Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model was trained on data from 1,029,366 patients, validated on 272,864 patients, and tested on 265,406 patients. Discrimination was assessed using the AUC statistic and calibration was assessed visually using calibration plots overall and across population subgroups. Our model predicting three-year risk of adverse outcomes due to diabetes complications (hyper/hypoglycemia, tissue infection, retinopathy, cardiovascular events, amputation) included 700 features from multiple diverse data sources and had strong discrimination (average test AUC = 77.7, range 77.7–77.9). Through the design and validation of a high-performance model to predict diabetes complications adverse outcomes at the population level, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning and administrative health data to inform health planning and healthcare resource allocation for diabetes management.
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Ravaut et al. applied ML to Canadian administrative health data, achieving satisfactory performance for adverse CVD events.
“Ravaut et al. [88] applied ML to Canadian administrative health data, achieving satisfactory performance for adverse CVD events.”
From Artificial intelligence-powered prediction of diabetic complications: from clinical data to molecular omics (2026) · cites this paper as [88]
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RETRACTED ARTICLE: iDP: ML-driven diabetes prediction framework using deep-ensemble modeling
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How machine learning on real world clinical data improves adverse event recording for endoscopy
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A Review of Machine Learning Algorithms in Diabetes Management
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RetractedA Systematic Review of Supervised Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Diabetic Detection
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Machine Learning in Vascular Surgery: A Systematic Review and Critical AppraisalPreprint
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Mohammed, S. J., Ahmed, A. M. S., & Mohammed, M. S. (2023) · JOIV International Journal on Informatics Visualization · doi:10.30630/joiv.7.3-2.1868
- Authors
- Ravaut, M., Sadeghi, H., Leung, K. K., Volkovs, M., Kornas, K., Harish, V., Watson, T., Lewis, G. F., Weisman, A., Poutanen, T., & Rosella, L.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Mount Sinai Hospital (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Rosella, Laura
- ORCID
- Venue
- npj Digital Medicine
- Published
- 2021-02-12
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 24-24
- ISSN
- 2398-6352 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7881135
- OpenAlex
- W3127218785
- Cited by
- 121
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 7
- FWCI
- 6.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- npj Digital Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Canada Research Chairs
- Gouvernement du Canada | Canadian Institutes of Health Research
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Keywords
- diabetes complications, adverse outcome prediction, administrative health data, gradient boosting decision tree, tissue infection, diabetic retinopathy, cardiovascular events, amputation, single-payer health care, Ontario, healthcare resource allocation, health planning
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