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Multi-threshold time series analysis enables characterization of variable renewable energy droughts in Europe

Kittel, Martin, Schill, Wolf-Peter·2026·Communications Earth & Environment
DOI 10.1038/s43247-026-03251-2

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Abstract

Variable renewable energy droughts, so called Dunkelflaute events, emerge as a challenge for climate-neutral energy systems based on variable renewables. Here we characterize European drought events for on- and offshore wind power, solar photovoltaics, and renewable technology portfolios, using 38 historic weather years and an advanced identification method. Their characteristics heavily depend on the chosen drought threshold, questioning the usefulness of single-threshold analyses. Applying a multi-threshold framework, we quantify how the complementarity of wind and solar power temporally and spatially alleviates drought frequency, return periods, duration, and severity within (portfolio effect) and across countries (balancing effect). We identify the most extreme droughts, which drive major discharging periods of long-duration storage in a fully renewable European energy system, based on a policy-relevant decarbonization scenario. Such events comprise sequences of shorter droughts of varying severity. The most extreme event occurred in winter 1996/97 and lasted 55 days in an idealized, perfectly interconnected setting. The average renewable availability during this period was still 47% of its long-run mean. System planners must consider such events when planning for storage and other flexibility technologies. Methodologically, we conclude that using arbitrary single calendar years is not suitable for modeling weather-resilient energy scenarios.

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  • Increasing interconnection capacity enables more pronounced geographical balancing, which smooths the impact of storage-defining renewable droughts, resulting in decreasing least-cost storage capacity.

    “Increasing interconnection capacity enables more pronounced geographical balancing, which smooths the impact of storage-defining renewable droughts, resulting in decreasing least-cost storage capacity33.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

    The Discussion (page unavailable) says geographical balancing mitigates extreme renewable droughts and the need for system flexibility, while Section 2.4 links severe droughts to long-duration storage use. Section 4.3 describes a model that determines least-cost capacities, but the retrieved passages do not establish that increasing interconnection decreases least-cost storage capacity. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The lower drought severity and storage needs in the pan-European copperplate scenario are due to a geographical balancing effect that spatially smooths renewable generation and demand patterns across all of Europe, and reservoir and pumped hydro storage balancing renewable droughts without transmission constraints across Europe, particularly large-scale capacities in Scandinavia.

    “This is due to a geographical balancing effect, which spatially smooths renewable generation and demand patterns across all of Europe, thereby mitigating extreme droughts32,33, and reservoir and pumped hydro storage balancing renewable droughts without transmission constraints across Europe, particularly the large-scale capacities in Scandinavia.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

    Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Even during extended extreme droughts, renewable generation potential substantially above zero remains.

    “Further, even during extended extreme droughts, renewable generation potential substantially above zero remains33.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

  • Wind droughts are more frequent in summer than in winter.

    “Wind droughts are more frequent and severe in summer than in winter33,44,47.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

  • Events identified by higher thresholds may last substantially longer, up to several weeks or months.

    “In contrast, events identified by higher thresholds may last substantially longer, i.e., up to several weeks or months33.”

    From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [33]

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Cited by

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Authors
Kittel, M., & Schill, W.-P.
Venue
Communications Earth & Environment
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2026-02-10
Volume
7
Issue
1
ISSN
2662-4435
DOI
10.1038/s43247-026-03251-2
Cited by
20
References
1
Language
en
Licence
Funders
Einstein Stiftung Berlin (A-2020-612)

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