Central tendency effects in time interval reproduction in autism
Open accessAbstract
Central tendency, the tendency of judgements of quantities (lengths, durations etc.) to gravitate towards their mean, is one of the most robust perceptual effects. A Bayesian account has recently suggested that central tendency reflects the integration of noisy sensory estimates with prior knowledge representations of a mean stimulus, serving to improve performance. The process is flexible, so prior knowledge is weighted more heavily when sensory estimates are imprecise, requiring more integration to reduce noise. In this study we measure central tendency in autism to evaluate a recent theoretical hypothesis suggesting that autistic perception relies less on prior knowledge representations than typical perception. If true, autistic children should show reduced central tendency than theoretically predicted from their temporal resolution. We tested autistic and age- and ability-matched typical children in two child-friendly tasks: (1) a time interval reproduction task, measuring central tendency in the temporal domain; and (2) a time discrimination task, assessing temporal resolution. Central tendency reduced with age in typical development, while temporal resolution improved. Autistic children performed far worse in temporal discrimination than the matched controls. Computational simulations suggested that central tendency was much less in autistic children than predicted by theoretical modelling, given their poor temporal resolution.
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A recent study by Shi et al. investigated prior updating in ASD using the central tendency effect in combination with Kalman, finding an initial underweighting of priors in autistic adults that normalised by the end of the task.
“For example, a recent study by Shi et al. [5] investigated prior updating in ASD using the central tendency effect in combination with Kalman. They found an initial underweighting of priors in autistic adults, resonating with some previous findings indicating atypical priors [13, 56], which normalised by the end of the task, resonating with contrasting previous findings of intact priors in ASD [57”
From Predicting emotional valence in autism: a preregistered study in the Bayesian Brain framework (2026) · cites this paper as [56]
The Abstract and Discussion report a central-tendency study finding weaker-than-optimal use of priors in autistic children. But the cited paper is not a study by Shi et al. of autistic adults: its Methods assume priors remain constant during each session, and its Discussion says the model does not distinguish learning a prior from using one. It does not support the attributed Kalman-based finding that initially underweighted priors normalised by the end of the task. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAccumulating evidence indicates that timing functions are impaired in ADHD, dyslexia, and autism.
“accumulating evidence indicates that timing functions are impaired in a variety of developmental disorders including ADHD [32,33], dyslexia [34], and autism [35,36].”
From The Conceptual and Methodological Mayhem of “Screen Time” (2020) · cites this paper as [36]
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Heading perception from optic flow is affected by heading distribution
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Weaker face recognition in adults with autism arises from perceptually based alterations
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No increased circular inference in adults with high levels of autistic traits or autism
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Beyond Prior and Volatility: The Distinct Iterative Updating Account of ASDPreprint
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1-s Productions: A Validation of an Efficient Measure of Clock Variability
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The Multidimensional Battery of Prosody Perception (MBOPP)
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Shared Perception Is Different From Individual Perception: A New Look on Context Dependency
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The impact of early aging on visual perception of space and time
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Suboptimal but intact integration of Bayesian components during perceptual decision-making in autism
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Predictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
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Memory decay enhances central bias in time perception
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The Multidimensional Battery of Prosody Perception (MBOPP)
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Contraction bias in temporal estimation
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Predictive processing of music and language in autism: Evidence from Mandarin and English speakers
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Perceptual inference, accuracy, and precision in temporal reproduction in schizophrenia
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LSD microdosing attenuates the impact of temporal priors in time perceptionPreprint
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Stronger reliance on visual perceptual history in individuals with higher math anxiety
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Robust Temporal Averaging of Time Intervals Between Action and Sensation
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The Multidimensional Battery of Prosody Perception (MBOPP)Preprint
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Temporal Reference, Attentional Modulation, and Crossmodal Assimilation
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Body-part specificity for learning of multiple prior distributions in human coincidence timing
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Fast updating of stimulus history reveals weak internal representations of faces in autism
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Visual-Haptic Size Estimation in Peripersonal Space
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Illusory perception of auditory filled duration is task‐ and context‐dependent
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“They found an initial underweighting of priors in autistic adults, resonating with some previous findings indicating atypical priors [13, 56], which normalised by the end of the task, resonating with contrasting previous findings of intact priors in ASD [57].”
Visual landmarks calibrate auditory space across eye movementsPreprint
Aagten‐Murphy, D., Szinte, M., Taylor, R. T., & Deubel, H. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/853739
No increased circular inference in autism or autistic traitsPreprint
Chrysaitis, N. A., Jardri, R., Denève, S., & Seriès, P. (2021) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2021.04.28.441748
Xuan, B., Li, S., & Yang, L. (2021) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-870951/v1
- Authors
- Karaminis, T., Cicchini, G. M., Neil, L., Cappagli, G., Aagten-Murphy, D., Burr, D., & Pellicano, E.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- Neuroscience Institute (IT)
- Italian Institute of Technology (IT)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Karaminis, Themelis
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2016-06-28
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 28570-28570
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4923867
- OpenAlex
- W2469949634
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 7.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Edge Hill University Research Information Repository (Edge Hill University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Open access LMU (Ludwid Maxmilian's Universitat Munchen) (submittedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutial Research Information System (University of Genoa) (submittedVersion)
- CNR ExploRA (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Edge Hill University (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council (MR/J013145/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neuroscience and Music Perception
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Multisensory perception and integration
- Keywords
- measures of central tendency, autism spectrum disorder, temporal resolution, temporal discrimination, Bayesian inference, prior knowledge, sensory noise, perceptual estimation, children with autism, computational modelling
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Autistic Disorder, Child, Computer Simulation, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Neurological, Time Perception
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