10 years of Bayesian theories of autism: A comprehensive review
Abstract
Ten years ago, Pellicano and Burr published one of the most influential articles in the study of autism spectrum disorders, linking them to aberrant Bayesian inference processes in the brain. In particular, they proposed that autistic individuals are less influenced by their brains' prior beliefs about the environment. In this systematic review, we investigate if this theory is supported by the experimental evidence. To that end, we collect all studies which included comparisons across diagnostic groups or autistic traits and categorise them based on the investigated priors. Our results are highly mixed, with a slight majority of studies finding no difference in the integration of Bayesian priors. We find that priors developed during the experiments exhibited reduced influences more frequently than priors acquired previously, with various studies providing evidence for learning differences between participant groups. Finally, we focus on the methodological and computational aspects of the included studies, showing low statistical power and often inconsistent approaches. Based on our findings, we propose guidelines for future research.
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A meta-analysis found mixed results regarding the integration of priors, possibly due to low power and inconsistent approaches, but various studies showed differences in learning between autistic and non-autistic individuals.
“This meta-analysis found mixed results regarding the integration of priors possibly to low power and inconsistent approaches, but various studies showed differences in learning between autistic and non-autistic individuals [11].”
From Predicting emotional valence in autism: a preregistered study in the Bayesian Brain framework (2026) · cites this paper as [11]
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Perrykkad, K., Lawson, R. P., Jamadar, S. D., & Hohwy, J. (2021) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104598 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Lacroix, A., Dutheil, F., Logemann, A., Cserjesi, R., Peyrin, C., Biro, B., Gomot, M., & Mermillod, M. (2022) · Autism · doi:10.1177/13623613211062776 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Atypical perception in autism: A failure of perceptual specialization?
Hadad, B. S., Goldstein, E. K., & Russo, N. N. (2017) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.1800 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Low-level, prediction-based sensory and motor processes are unimpaired in Autism
Finnemann, J., Plaisted-Grant, K. C., Moore, J. W., Teufel, C., & Fletcher, P. C. (2021) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2021.107835 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Edey, R., Brewer, R., Bird, G., & Press, C. (2018) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-018-3725-4 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Autistic Traits Differently Account for Context-Based Predictions of Physical and Social Events
Bianco, V., Finisguerra, A., Betti, S., D’Argenio, G., & Urgesi, C. (2020) · Brain Sciences · doi:10.3390/brainsci10070418 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Predictive action perception from explicit intention information in autism
Hudson, M., Nicholson, T., Kharko, A., McKenzie, R., & Bach, P. (2021) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-021-01941-w · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Flexible integration of visual cues in adolescents with autism spectrum disorder
Bedford, R., Pellicano, E., Denis Mareschal, B., & Marko Nardini, A. (2015) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.1509 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Utzerath, C., Schmits, I. C., Kok, P., Buitelaar, J. K., & de Lange, F. P. (2019) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2019.03.011 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Individual differences in the tendency to see the expected
Andermane, N., Bosten, J. M., Seth, A. K., & Ward, J. (2020) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2020.102989 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Sensory Adaptation and Short Term Plasticity as Bayesian Correction for a Changing Brain
Stevenson, I. H., Cronin, B., Sur, M., & Kording, K. P. (2010) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012436 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Neural mechanisms underlying valence inferences to sound: The role of the right angular gyrus
Bravo, F., Cross, I. R. M., Hawkins, S., Gonzalez, N., Docampo, J., Bruno, C., & Stamatakis, E. A. (2017) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2017.05.029 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Jaffe‐Dax, S., & Eigsti, I. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-72896-6 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Arthur, T., Vine, S., Brosnan, M., & Buckingham, G. (2019) · Experimental Brain Research · doi:10.1007/s00221-019-05586-z · Cited by 11 · see citing works
No increased circular inference in adults with high levels of autistic traits or autism
Chrysaitis, N. A., Jardri, R., Denève, S., & Seriès, P. (2021) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009006 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationSpecial treatment of prediction errors in autism spectrum disorder
Todorova, G. K., Pollick, F. E., & Muckli, L. F. (2021) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2021.108070 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The Integration of Occlusion and Disparity Information for Judging Depth in Autism Spectrum Disorder
Smith, D., Ropar, D., & Allen, H. A. (2017) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-017-3234-x · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Preservation of categorical perception for speech in autism with and without speech onset delay
Chiodo, L., Mottron, L., & Majerus, S. (2019) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.2134 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Ward, E. K., Buitelaar, J. K., & Hunnius, S. (2021) · Developmental Science · doi:10.1111/desc.13158 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Intact predictive motor sequence learning in autism spectrum disorder
Rybicki, A. J., Galea, J. M., Schuster, B. A., Hiles, C., Fabian, C., & Cook, J. L. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-00173-1 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Ioannou, C., Seernani, D. P., Stefanou, M. E., Biscaldi-Schaefer, M., van Elst, L. T., Fleischhaker, C., Boccignone, G., & Klein, C. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.585149 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Ward, E. K., Braukmann, R., Buitelaar, J. K., & Hunnius, S. (2020) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/abn0000518 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Retzler, C., Boehm, U., Cai, J., Cochrane, A., & Manning, C. (2021) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1177/17470218211019939 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Intention Attribution in Children and Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: An EEG Study
Schütz, M., Boxhoorn, S., Mühlherr, A. M., Mössinger, H., Freitag, C. M., & Luckhardt, C. (2021) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-021-05358-1 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The Hollow-Mask Illusion and Variations
Papathomas, T. V. (2017) · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199794607.003.0087 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
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Individual differences in computational psychiatry: A review of current challenges
Karvelis, P., Paulus, M. P., & Diaconescu, A. O. (2023) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2023.105137 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
“…investigating associations between computational measures and clinician-rated or self-reported symptom measures (concurrent validity) or with diagnostic categories (diagnostic validity) (e.g., Chrysaitis and Seri ` es, 2022; Kaliuzhna et al., 2019; Kat-thagen et al., 2022; Pike and Robinson, 2022).”
InfluentialScarcella, I., Marino, F., Failla, C., Doria, G., Chilà, P., Minutoli, R., Vetrano, N., Vagni, D., Pignolo, L., Cara, M. D., et al. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1212522 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Intact predictive processing in autistic adults: evidence from statistical learning
Pesthy, O., Farkas, K., Sapey‐Triomphe, L., Guttengéber, A., Komoróczy, E., Janacsek, K., Réthelyi, J., & Németh, D. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-38708-3 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Keysers, C., Silani, G., & Gazzola, V. (2024) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2024.105877 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
A theory of autism bridging across levels of description
Noel, J., & Angelaki, D. E. (2023) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2023.04.010 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“Thisaccounthasbeenchallengedbyempiricalwork(e.g.,[17,52,100];see[88]forareview)butdidleadtoamore subtle formulation: that individuals with ASD have ‘ high, in fl exible precision of prediction errors (HIPPEA) ’ [15].”
Testing predictive coding theories of autism spectrum disorder using models of active inference
Arthur, T., Vine, S., Buckingham, G., Brosnan, M., Wilson, M., & Harris, D. (2023) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011473 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“Nevertheless, some key theoretical issues relating to predictive processing accounts of autism require further examination, and additional questions remain about the applicability of these frameworks across wider daily living behaviours and social domains (for further discussions, see [27,81]).”
BackgroundMøller, J. (2024) · Educational Psychology Review · doi:10.1007/s10648-024-09918-6 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Understanding learning through uncertainty and bias
Bruckner, R., Heekeren, H. R., & Nassar, M. R. (2025) · Communications Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44271-025-00203-y · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Keating, C. T., Ichijo, E., & Cook, J. L. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-39070-0 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Literalism in Autistic People: a Predictive Processing Proposal
Vicente, A., Michel, C., & Petrolini, V. (2023) · Review of Philosophy and Psychology · doi:10.1007/s13164-023-00704-x · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“This has recently been dubbed “the imbalance hypothesis” (Chrysaitis and Seriès 2022).”
A dissociation between the use of implicit and explicit priors in perceptual inference
Bévalot, C., & Meyniel, F. (2024) · Communications Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44271-024-00162-w · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“The experimenter might infer that participants weigh explicit and implicit priors differently, whereas in fact the weight is the same, and the value of the participant ’ s implicit prior differs from the experimenter ’ s expectation 22 .”
InfluentialHabituation of auditory responses in young autistic and neurotypical children
Dwyer, P. S. R., Williams, Z. J., Vukušić, S., Saron, C. D., & Rivera, S. M. (2023) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.3022 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“In most of these accounts, autistic people are postulated to place relatively greater weight on bottom-up information such as momentary sensory inputs, while placing less weight on top-down generalizations and predictions about environments (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2022).”
BackgroundA common computational and neural anomaly across mouse models of autism
Noel, J., Balzani, E., Acerbi, L., Benson, J., Angelaki, D. E., Birman, D., Bonacchi, N., Carandini, M., Catarino, J. A., Chapuis, G. A., et al. (2025) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-025-01965-8 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“These findings suggest that distinct genetic instantiations of ASD may yield common neurophysiological and behavioral phenotypes.”
Rządeczka, M., Wodziński, M. C., & Moskalewicz, M. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1291854 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Beyond Prior and Volatility: The Distinct Iterative Updating Account of ASDPreprint
Shi, Z., Allenmark, F., Theisinger, L. A., Pistorius, R. L., Glasauer, S., Müller, H. J., & Falter‐Wagner, C. M. (2022) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2022.01.21.477218 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
“Contrary to the view that individuals with ASD form compromised prior beliefs, many types of prior – particularly those deriving from experience or top-down knowledge – actually remain intact (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialThérien, V. D., Degré‐Pelletier, J., Barbeau, É. B., Samson, F., & Soulières, I. (2023) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhad195 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Sapey-Triomphe, L.-A., Sanchez, G., Hénaff, M.-A., Sonié, S., Schmitz, C., & Mattout, J. (2023) · npj Science of Learning · doi:10.1038/s41539-023-00207-5 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Is she still angry? Intact learning but no updating of facial expressions priors in autism
Twito, R., Hadad, B., & Szpiro, S. (2024) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.3145 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
“There may also be differences in the use of preexisting priors versus learned priors in autism (see Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023 for a recent review).”
BackgroundRDoC Framework Through the Lens of Predictive Processing: Focusing on Cognitive Systems Domain
Banaraki, A. K., Toghi, A., & Mohammadzadeh, A. (2024) · Computational Psychiatry · doi:10.5334/cpsy.119 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“In one of these systematic reviews, the authors declared, “These ambiguities cannot be resolved without a clear framework for the hierarchy of priors in the brain and possibly its implementation in computational models” (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023).”
BackgroundSapey‐Triomphe, L., Bouet, R., Mattout, J., Sonié, S., Schmitz, C., & Lecaignard, F. (2025) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70131 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Lozano, I., Campos, R., & Carmona, M. B. (2025) · Infant Behavior and Development · doi:10.1016/j.infbeh.2024.102026 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Suboptimal but intact integration of Bayesian components during perceptual decision-making in autism
Fazioli, L., Hadad, B., Denison, R. N., & Yashar, A. (2025) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-025-00639-3 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“…could also stem from experimental shortcomings—such as inadequate prior learning attributable to compromised attentional or working memory capacities in autism [3, 19] (i.e., impaired learning of priors)—rather than a genuine reduced effect of priors [20, 21] (i.e., altered integration process).”
Improved emotion differentiation under reduced acoustic variability of speech in autism
Duville, M. M., Alonso-Valerdi, L. M., & Ibarra-Zárate, D. I. (2024) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-024-03341-y · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“Therefore, precision weighting may be altered in autistics, but the presence and nature of atypicality may depend on tasks, contexts, and processed information [29].”
BackgroundWord meaning is complex: Language-related generalization differences in autistic adults
Cuneo, N., Floyd, S., & Goldberg, A. E. (2024) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105691 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“Other studies have found autistic individuals rely less on priors in perceptual and social tasks than neurotypical individuals (e.g., Pellicano & Burr, 2012; Von Der Lühe et al., 2016), although again, a recent meta-study finds the evidence to be mixed (Chrysaitis & Seri ` es, 2022).”
BackgroundPredictive Processing in Autism Spectrum Disorder: The Atypical Iterative Prior Updating Account
Shi, Z., Allenmark, F., Theisinger, L. A., Pistorius, R. L., Glasauer, S., Müller, H. J., & Falter‐Wagner, C. M. (2025) · Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science · doi:10.1016/j.bpsgos.2025.100468 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“Thus, our fi ndings may help explain some mixed fi ndings on predictive processing in ASD (15), which often depend on the rate of adaptation and the timescales used in studies.”
Autistic traits relate to speed/accuracy trade-off but not statistical learning and updating
Hann, F., Pesthy, O., Brezóczki, B., Vékony, T., Nagy, C. A., Sapey‐Triomphe, L., Tóth-Fáber, E., Farkas, B. C., Farkas, K., & Németh, D. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-16138-7 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“The predictive processing framework of ASD suggests alterations in how autistic individuals rely on internal models constructed from prior experience to predict future events 3,4 .”
Huang, Y., Norrman, H. N., Oliva, M., van Leeuwen, T. M., Fransson, P., Bölte, S., & Neufeld, J. (2025) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-025-07061-x · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Duville, M. M., Ibarra-Zárate, D. I., & Alonso-Valerdi, L. M. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-35013-x · Cited by 5 · see citing works
A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Empirical Evidence for the Simple Bayesian Model of Autism
Cui, K., Lin, X., Gao, R., Jing, S., Luo, F., & Wang, J. (2025) · Neuropsychology Review · doi:10.1007/s11065-025-09672-8 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Feng, S., Wang, M., Zhang, J.-N., Ding, L., Yuan, Y., Zhang, P., & Bai, X.-J. (2025) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2025.06.031 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Häger, L. A., Høyland, A. L., Kropotov, J. D., Johnels, J. Å., Weidle, B., Hollup, S., Gillberg, C., Billstedt, E., & Øgrim, G. (2024) · Clinical EEG and Neuroscience · doi:10.1177/15500594241227974 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Predictive Processing During Cue-Outcome Associative Learning in Autistic Children
Papastamou, F., Dumont, C., Destrebecqz, A., & Kissine, M. (2024) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-024-06448-6 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“It has been suggested that this precision imbalance results in more frequent prior updates in autistic individuals, as compared to their non-autistic peers. population (Pesthy et al., 2023; Rybicki et al., 2021; for reviews see Cannon et al., 2021; Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023).”
Cole, R. H., Smythe, L., Edwards, M. J., Happe, F. G. E., & Nicholson, T. R. (2025) · Autism · doi:10.1177/13623613251393504 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Mottron, L., Desrosiers, J., McGuire, O. L., Lestage, G., Krikorian, A.-L., Ostrolenk, A., & Gagnon, D. (2026) · Autism & Developmental Language Impairments · doi:10.1177/23969415261454212 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Two decades of empirical work have mostly revealed intact priors in multiple domains (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Series, 2023; Cui et al., 2025; Finnemann et al., 2021), along with typical adjustment to prediction errors (Papastamou et al., 2025).”
O’Brien, A. M., May, T. A., Koskey, K. L. K., Bungert, L., Cardinaux, A. L., Cannon, J. J., Treves, I. N., D’Mello, A. M., Joseph, R. M., Li, C. E., et al. (2024) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-024-06379-2 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“…via reduced habituation and repetition suppression, reduced spontaneous predictive movement, reduced predictive eye gaze, difficulty with social predictions, and potential dif - ferences in the learning of predictive relationships (for two reviews, see Angeletos et al., 2023; Cannon et al., 2021).”
Jassim, N., McCoy, B., Yip, E. W.-C., Allison, C. L., Baron‐Cohen, S., & Lawson, R. P. (2025) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-025-00654-4 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“A prominent hypothesis is that autistic individuals rely less on top-down prior knowledge [9, 36].”
Autistic and nonautistic adolescents do not differ in adaptation to gaze direction
Ward, E. K., Buitelaar, J. K., & Hunnius, S. (2024) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.3118 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Similar refinements of the predictive processing account of autism appear to be necessary for the framework to account for the empirical data, and the necessary synthesis of the empirical evidence so far has recently begun (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2022; Cannon et al., 2021).”
MethodBayesian Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Borderline Personality Disorder
Manavalan, M., Song, X., Nolte, T., Fonagy, P., Montague, P. R., & Vilares, I. (2024) · Journal of Personality Disorders · doi:10.1521/pedi.2024.38.1.53 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Abé, C. (2024) · Sexuality & Culture · doi:10.1007/s12119-024-10290-4 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“…internally stored information is generally not novel and has found application across various neuroscientific domains (Adams et al., 2015; Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023; Corlett et al., 2019; Fletcher & Frith, 2009; Friston, 2005, 2010; Knill & Pouget, 2004; Kording, 2014;…”
InfluentialVisuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traits
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Visuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traits
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946.3 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Linking Subclinical Autistic Traits and Perceptual Category Learning
Warren, C. V., Baumert, R., Diermann, K., Schöttle, D., & Bayer, J. (2025) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.70000 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Autistic adults, financial risk preference, and economic outcomes
Galizzi, M., Hillier, A. J., & Schena, D. A. (2025) · Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101065 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ma, S., He, X., Xu, X., He, H., Shi, W., & Zhao, X. (2025) · Asian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.ajp.2025.104556 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Cheng, L. L., Wang, X., Mao, H., Liu, Y., Yuan, W., Wang, P., Hou, N., & Peng, Y. (2025) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-025-06915-8 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Oscillatory traveling waves during visual entrainment in autistic and neurotypical adultsPreprint
Alamia, A., Schwenk, J. C. B., Wagemans, J. P., & Sapey‐Triomphe, L. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.01.29.702587 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“However, empirical findings testing these hypotheses remain mixed, as prior precision in ASD has been reported as intact, increased, or decreased depending on the context (Cannon et al., 2021; Angeletos Chrysaitis and Seriès, 2023).”
Qi, J., Peng, J., & Kang, X. (2025) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-024-06704-9 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Moreover, Angeletos Chrysaitis and Seriès (2023) reviewed 83 studies to evaluate the empirical support for Bayesian theories of autism.”
Karakale, Ö., Nelson, N. L., Gredelj, A., Ryan, K. J., & Bayindir, A. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-13507-0 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Weaker integration of priors was observed more often in studies that required learning priors implicitly, such as through repeated exposure to frequent stimuli (see 12 for a review).”
Autistic Listeners Demonstrate Robust Lexically Guided Perceptual Learning
Cummings, S. N., Duda, B., & Theodore, R. M. (2025) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70078 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“In a review of Bayesian theories of autism, Angeletos Chrysaitis and Seriès (2023) conclude that use of prior knowledge is not weakened in autism, while Cannon and colleagues (Cannon et al. 2021) find reduced learning in three of four included studies.”
Autistic Adults Anticipate Simple and Complex Narrative Events
Wimmer, L., & Ferguson, H. J. (2025) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-025-07037-x · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Oscillatory Traveling Waves During Visual Entrainment in Autistic and Non-Autistic Adults
Alamia, A., Schwenk, J. C. B., Wagemans, J. P., & Sapey‐Triomphe, L. (2026) · Autism · doi:10.1177/13623613261478892 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“However, empirical findings testing these hypotheses remain mixed, as prior precision in autism has been reported as intact, increased, or decreased depending on the context (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023; Cannon et al., 2021).”
Altered semantic prediction error processing with increasing schizotypal and autistic traits
Sterner, E., Demler, V. F., Rachel, L. E. N. Z., MacGregor, L. J., Mathys, C. D., & Knolle, F. (2026) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41398-026-04479-4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“…samples and clinical cohorts will be needed to better disentangle disorder-speci fi c mechanisms and account for the heterogeneity of ASD and SSD. Whole-brain modeling and advanced single-trial approaches may further help to directly map computational parameters onto electrophysiological signatures.”
Predictive processing: Layer-specific prediction error signals in human cortex
Sterzer, P., & Keller, G. B. (2024) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2024.04.031 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sandini, C., Imparato, A., Feller, C. M., Ilen, L., D, S. E. M., Stringaris, A. K., & Schneider, M. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4673085/v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sandini, C., Imparato, A., Feller, C. M., Ilen, L., Reich, N., Graser, C. J., D, S. E. M., Stringaris, A. K., & Schneider, M. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.07.09.25330999 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Predicting emotional valence in autism: a preregistered study in the Bayesian Brain framework
Plank, I. S., Pior, A., Yurova, A., Nowak, J., Shi, Z., & Falter-Wagner, C. M. (2026) · Molecular Autism · doi:10.1186/s13229-026-00730-3 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“These results show a mixed picture of tonic volatility modifications in autism, possibly due to the differences in models and tasks [11].”
InfluentialComplex priors and flexible inference in recurrent circuits with dendritic nonlinearitiesPreprint
Lyo, B. S. H., & Savin, C. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.10.03.560701
Mismatch Negativity: time for deconstructionPreprint
Lecaignard, F., & Mattout, J. (2023) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2310.11247
Atypical sensory perception in autism from the perspective of Bayesian framework
Cui, K., Luo, F., & Wang, J. (2023) · Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version) · doi:10.1360/tb-2023-0939
RDoC Framework Through the Lens of Predictive Processing: Focusing on Cognitive System DomainPreprint
Banaraki, A. K., Toghi, A., & Mohammadzadeh, A. (2023) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/3f9ce
Visuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traitsPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.12.19.572419
Visuo-motor updating in autism symptomatologyPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946.1
Predictive coding deficits in autism: Abnormalities in feedback or feedforward connectivities?
Wei, J. I. N. G., Qi, C. H. E. N., Yun Qing, X. U. E., Miao, Y. A. N. G., & ZHANG, J. (2024) · Advances in Psychological Science · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1042.2024.00813
The “Tetris effect”: Testing the implicit drive for perceptual cohesion in autismPreprint
Jassim, N., McCoy, B., Yip, E. W.-C., Allison, C. L., Baron‐Cohen, S., & Lawson, R. P. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/echxf
Fu, C., Aixin, L., Xiaokang, L., & Chongying, W. (2024) · Advances in Psychological Science · doi:10.3724/sp.j.1042.2024.01164
Visuo-motor updating in individuals with heightened autistic traitsPreprint
Pomè, A., & Zimmermann, E. (2024) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.94946.2
Influence of truthful and misleading instructions on statistical learning across the autism spectrumPreprint
Chrysaitis, N. A., & Seriès, P. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.07.12.603256
“Our review also showed that studies using implicitly learned priors tended to find weaker influences in autistic individuals, while this was less common when prior learning was explicit or when participants were directly informed about the regularities [21].”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationSuboptimal but intact integration of Bayesian components during perceptual decision-making in autismPreprint
Fazioli, L., Hadad, B. S., Denison, R. N., & Yashar, A. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/249rv
Disentangling the effects of Anxious, Autistic and Psychotic Traits on Perceptual InferencePreprint
Bévalot, C., & Meyniel, F. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.10.14.618266
Perceptual distortions in PredNet and quantification of top-down/bottom-up flow
Kojima, H., Suzuki, K., & Yamashita, Y. (2026) · Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fncom.2026.1869519
García‐Pérez, Á., González-Rodríguez, A., Godoy‐Giménez, M., Sayans‐Jiménez, P., Cañadas, F., & Estévez, Á. F. (2024) · Psychological Research · doi:10.1007/s00426-024-02067-z
Chakravarty, S., Do, Q. H., Li, Y., Tager-Flusberg, H. B., McGuire, J. T., & Scott, B. B. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.05.06.652509
Scikit-NeuroMSI: A Generalized Framework for Modeling Multisensory Integration
Paredes, R., Cabral, J., & Seriès, P. (2025) · Neuroinformatics · doi:10.1007/s12021-025-09738-1
Self-citationPerceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structurePreprint
Clarke, J., Rittershofer, K., Ward, E. K., Yon, D., & Press, C. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2025.07.30.667172
“…some current debates in the literature, for example, concerning whether aberrant prediction generates the atypicalities characteristic of autism (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023) or schizophrenia (Corlett et al., 2019), or whether it shapes early, or just later stages of, sensory processing…”
Ferrarese, L., & Asari, H. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63788-2
“However, the current experimental evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited in both sample sizes and computational models (Chrysaitis and Seriès, 2023).”
Roseby, W., & Moar, C. O. (2025) · Psychoactives · doi:10.3390/psychoactives4040041
“In autism, several influential accounts point to an increase in sensory weight relative to prior expectations [39–42], with a suggestion that increased precision of prediction errors underlies the common autistic experience of sensory overload as well as neurobiological responses like increased…”
Yang, X., Zhan, L., & Wang, Y. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-23993-x
Imparato, A., Reich, N., Feller, C. M., Ilen, L., D, S. E. M., Graser, C. J., Schneider, M., & Sandini, C. (2025) · npj Digital Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41746-025-02128-6
“Of note, according to Bayesian models individuals with ASD may present an opposite tendency to rely more strongly on recent sensory information [50-52], which would prove advantageous in repetitive environments requiring high sensory precision [53], but may also contribute to higher psychological…”
Williams, D. K. A., Biswas, T. K., Brusco, C., Molholm, S., & Coen-Cagli, R. (2025) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2025.12.17.695033
Duville, M. M., Alonso-Valerdi, L. M., & Ibarra-Zarate, D. I. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26693548
Perceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structurePreprint
Clarke, J., Rittershofer, K., Ward, E. K., Yon, D., & Press, C. (2026) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.109690 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Perceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structurePreprint
Clarke, J., Rittershofer, K., Ward, E. K., Yon, D., & Press, C. (2026) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.109690.1
Modeling flexible behavior with remapping-based hippocampal sequence learningPreprint
Ito, Y., & Toyoizumi, T. (2026) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.106506.2
Low, Z. X. B. (2026) · Progress in Neuro-Psychopharmacology and Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.pnpbp.2026.111717
Roos, M., Storm, H., Zimmer, L., & Schuwerk, T. (2026) · Autism · doi:10.1177/13623613261443728
“Rather than representing a single unified mechanism, these frameworks may describe different aspects of predictive processing that are differentially affected in autism (Angeletos Chrysaitis & Seriès, 2023).”
Norrman, H. N., Huang, Y.-T., Westeinde, A. V., van Leeuwen, T. V., Fransson, P., Bölte, S., & Neufeld, J. (2026) · Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science · doi:10.1016/j.bpsgos.2026.100760 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Bayesian and predictive coding accounts of autism propose that altered priors/predictions or prediction errors increase the influence of bottom-up sensory inputs, relative to top-down prior beliefs (2).”
InfluentialAtypical Predictive Processing Is Associated With Sensory Over‐Responsivity in Autism
Yosef, B., Burgess, V., Banchik, M., Ceballos, J., Dapretto, M., & Green, S. (2026) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.70283
“Atypicalities in predictive processing have been proposed as a core mechanism underlying sensory symptoms in ASD (Angeletos Chrysaitis and Seriès 2023; Cannon et al. 2021; Gonzalez-Gadea et al. 2015; Lawson et al. 2014; Palmer et al. 2017; Pellicano and Burr 2012; Van de Cruys et al. 2014).”
Temporal features of visual processing efficiency in autistic adultsPreprint
Arguin, M., Desrosiers, J., Khalil, L. E., & Mottron, L. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10243357/v1
Chakravarty, S., Do, Q. H., Li, Y., Torres-Lacarra, V., Tager-Flusberg, H. B., McGuire, J. T., & Scott, B. B. (2026) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aec9291
“This pattern could be viewed as broadly consistent with theories of altered use of priors in ASD ( 46 – 50 ).”
Reduced Motor Preparation and Altered EEG Signatures of Prediction in Autistic Adults
Bagheri, S., Cardinaux, A. L., Bungert, L., Li, C. E., O’Brien, A. M., Sinha, P., & Cannon, J. J. (2026) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.70673
Effects of Cannabidiol on Auditory Mismatch Negativity in Autistic ChildrenPreprint
Budhiraja, K., Parrella, N.-F., Hill, A. T., Downey, L. A., Catchlove, S. J., Enticott, P. G., & Ford, T. C. (2026) · medRxiv · doi:10.64898/2026.10.14.26365371
Bortolotti, A., Palumbo, R., Matteo, F. L.-D., & Sacco, P. L. (2026) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2026.1960361
- Authors
- Angeletos Chrysaitis, N., & Seriès, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Seriès, Peggy
- ORCID
- Seriès, Peggy
- Venue
- Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-02
- Volume
- 145
- Pages
- 105022
- ISSN
- 0149-7634 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4312220799
- Cited by
- 92
- References
- 132
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 2.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Child and Animal Learning Development
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Action Observation and Synchronization
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, Bayesian inference, prior beliefs, prior distributions, autism theory, prior learning, autistic traits, statistical power, research methodology guidelines
- MeSH terms
- Autism Spectrum Disorder, Autistic Disorder, Bayes Theorem, Head, Humans
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