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Detection of the Keplerian decline in the Milky Way rotation curve
Open accessAbstract
Our position inside the Galactic disc has previously prevented us from establishing an accurate rotation curve (RC). The advent of Gaia and its third data release ( Gaia DR3) made it possible to specify the RC up to twice the optical radius. We aim to establish a new RC of the Galaxy from the Gaia DR3 by drastically reducing systematic uncertainties. Our goal is to provide a new estimate of the mass of the Galaxy. We compared different estimates, established a robust assessment of the systematic uncertainties, and addressed differences in methodologies, particularly regarding distance estimates. We find a sharply decreasing RC for the Milky Way; the decrease in velocity between 19.5 and 26.5 kpc is approximately 30 km s −1 . We identify, for the first time, a Keplerian decline of the RC, starting at ∼19 kpc and ending at ∼26.5 kpc from the Galaxy centre, while a flat RC is rejected with a significance of 3 σ . The total mass is revised downwards to 2.06 −0.13 +0.24 × 10 11 M ⊙ , which is in agreement with the absence of a significant mass increase at radii larger than 19 kpc. We evaluated the upper limit on the total mass by considering the upper values of velocity measurements, which leads to a strict, unsurpassable limit of 5.4 × 10 11 M ⊙ .
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“Regarding the exclusion of Zhou et al. (2023), we note that the argument of Jiao et al. (their Fig. B1) rests on a comparison with the distance scales of Wang et al. (2016, as updated with Gaia EDR3 priors), Hogg et al. (2019) and StarHorse (Queiroz et al. 2023), all of which are somewhat shorter than the Zhou et al. scale for R > 10 kpc. Since all of these are spectrophotometric distances, the”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
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In the citing paper
“They then fit a power-law model vc ∝ R γ to the data at R > 19 kpc, finding γ = -0 . 47 ± 0 . 15 for their RC and γ = -0 . 56 + 0 . 23 -0 . 22 for the Ou et al. (2024) RC, both consistent with Keplerian ( γ = -0 . 5) at 1 σ . A flat RC ( γ = 0) is excluded at the 3 σ level.”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Ou et al. (2024) used an axisymmetric Jeans analysis but neglected the vertical cross-term in equation (22), estimating its omission as one contribution to their systematic error budget. Their quoted systematic uncertainties remain small out to about 20 kpc and grow rapidly beyond 22 kpc, where the asymmetric-drift contribution alone reaches the ∼ 15% level (Jiao et al., 2023)”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al., 2023
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Both RCs decline with a very similar linear slope, β = -(2 . 18 ± 0 . 23) km s -1 kpc -1 for their own measurement and β = -(2 . 22 ± 0 . 20) km s -1 kpc -1 for that of Ou et al. (2024).”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Jiao et al. (2023) re-derived the RC of Wang et al. (2023) with a revised binning and a full systematic error budget, and compared it with a preliminary version of Ou et al. (2024) (circulated as Ou et al. 2023 on arXiv at the time of submission), after carefully reconciling their different distance scales;”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
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The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“It is worth stressing that the Keplerian behaviour is not a feature of the Jiao et al. reanalysis alone: although neither Wang et al. (2023) nor Ou et al. (2024) explicitly claim a Keplerian decline, the outer slopes of their own RCs, taken at face value, are consistent with one”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“The inferred spherical-equivalent mass within 30 kpc, M sph , 30 ≈ 2 . 6 × 10 11 M ⊙ , exceeds the strict Keplerian sphericalequivalent total of 2 . 06 × 10 11 M ⊙ (Jiao et al., 2023).”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“this reflects the weight of the Jiao et al. (2023) points in the compilation, which lie ∼ 5 km s -1 below the RGBbased curves at R < 13 kpc and are referred to R ⊙ = 8 . 34 kpc.”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“The last major merger experienced by the MW (Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus) dates back to ∼ 10 Gyr ago, whereas a typical spiral of comparable mass experienced its last major merger more recently, on average ∼ 6 Gyr ago (see Jiao et al., 2023, and references therein). The equilibrium assumption is therefore less problematic for the MWdisc than for many external spirals, and in particular than for M31.”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Gaia DR3 has changed the picture: several analyses now find a velocity decline beyond R ≈ 15 kpc”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al., 2023
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“For plausible outer-disc tracer profiles the quadratic correction is va ∼ 30-55 km s -1 (the toy value above lies at the upper end), it propagates into the inferred circular speed weakly, since v 2 c = ⟨ v ϕ ⟩ 2 + v 2 a implies δ vc ≈ ( va / vc ) δ va . For this range of va and vc ≈ 230 km s -1 , even a 30% error in va shifts vc by only ∼ 1-4 km s -1 , below the ∼ 30 km s -1 outer-disc decline”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“The subsequent DR3-based analyses of Wang et al. (2023), Jiao et al. (2023), and Ou et al. (2024) all find a steeper decline at R > 15 kpc, with the extreme interpretation of Jiao et al. (2023) claiming a Keplerian decline and a total mass nearly five times lower.”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al., 2023
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Jiao et al. (2023) quote 2 . 06 + 0 . 24 -0 13 × 10 11 M ⊙ for their preferred total mass and a strict upper limit of 5 . 4 × 10 11 M ⊙ .”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Klaˇ cka & Šturc (2025) showed that in the best-fit mass models of Jiao et al. (2023) and Ou et al. (2024), the spherically distributed DM halo accounts for ≳ 88% of the total radial gravitational acceleration at R = 27 kpc”
From The rotation curve of the Milky Way: State of the art, the Keplerian decline debate, and implications for dark matter (2026) · cites this paper as Jiao et al. (2023)
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The Schwarzschild–de Sitter Metric of Nonlocal dS Gravity
Dimitrijević, I., Dragovich, B. G., Rakić, Z., & Stanković, J. (2024) · Symmetry · doi:10.3390/sym16050544 · Cited by 1
Keplerian Rotation Curve of the Milky Way
Colenbrander, B. G., & Hulscher, W. S. (2024) · American Journal of Modern Physics · doi:10.11648/j.ajmp.20241304.11 · Cited by 1
Zhu, Y. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202402.1765.v2 · Cited by 1
A Conjecture on the Possible Another Supermassive Black Hole in the Bar of Our Milky WayPreprint
Zhu, Y. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202406.1730.v1 · Cited by 1
A Conjecture on the Possible Another Supermassive Black Hole in the Bar of Our Milky WayPreprint
Zhu, Y. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202406.1730.v2 · Cited by 1
Optics Effect on the Observed Image about Sgr A* and Orbits of S-StarsPreprint
Zhu, Y. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202407.2142.v1 · Cited by 1
Melchiorri, A., & Ruchika (2026) · New Astronomy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.newar.2026.101758
“The choice of Jeans formalism at large radii Klaˇcka & Šturc (2025) showed that in the best-fit mass models of Jiao et al. (2023) and Ou et al. (2024), the spherically distributed DM halo accounts for ≳ 88% of the total radial gravitational acceleration at R = 27 kpc, and argued on this basis that…”
InfluentialHigh-energy emission from the Galactic Center
Goldwurm, A., Clavel, M., Stefano Gabici, A., & Terrier, R. (2025) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/9nww-fclb · Cited by 2
A Possible Explanation for the Flat Curve Paradox
Haraux, A. (2024) · Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics · doi:10.1134/s1995080224604259
Relativity CosmologyPreprint
Choi, J. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4643365
Relativity CosmologyPreprint
Choi, J. (2023) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202312.2215.v1
Relativity CosmologyPreprint
Choi, J. (2024) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/j8tb3
Relativity CosmologyPreprint
Choi, J. (2024) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202312.2215.v2
A New Dark Matter and Dark Energy Theory Based on the Assumption of Mass VectorizationPreprint
Zhou, F. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4692093
(2024) · International Journal of Fundamental Physical Sciences · doi:10.14331/ijfps.2024.330166
Deligny, O. (2025) · Journal of Physics Conference Series · doi:10.1088/1742-6596/3053/1/012016
The DR3 Milky Way Rotation Curve within the Framework of General Relativity Without Dark Matter
Canac, M. (2024) · Reports in Advances of Physical Sciences · doi:10.1142/s2424942424500087
A Survey of Dynamical and Gravitational Lensing Tests in Scale Invariance: The Fall of Dark Matter?
Maeder, A., & Courbin, F. (2024) · Symmetry · doi:10.3390/sym16111420
Impact of merger histories on the timing argument estimate of the Local Group mass
Akib, I., Hammer, F., & Yang, Y. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202553769
Self-citationGravitational Waves and Gravitational Lensing According to Particle Based Gravity
Hulscher, W. S. (2025) · American Journal of Modern Physics · doi:10.11648/j.ajmp.20251401.14
The Solar System: Nature and mechanicsPreprint
Ljubičić, M. (2025) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/7dpvw_v2
Newtonian Field Interaction Hypothesis and Equilibrium Potential Theory
Leportier, P. A. L. (2025) · Journal of High Energy Physics Gravitation and Cosmology · doi:10.4236/jhepgc.2025.112032
Hawkins, M. R. S. (2025) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/staf736
Nonlocal de Sitter $$\sqrt{dS}$$ Gravity Model and Its Applications
Dimitrijević, I., Dragovich, B. G., Rakić, Z., & Stanković, J. (2025) · Russian Journal of Mathematical Physics · doi:10.1134/s1061920824601824
Relativity CosmologyPreprint
Choi, J. (2025) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/j8tb3_v3
Investigating the origin of the Milky Way streams
Asencio, E., Kroupa, P., & Thies, I. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202451179
On the presence of angular-velocity offsets in disc galaxies
Zimmerman, T., Tal-Or, L., & Gomel, R. (2025) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/staf2170
Mkrtchyan, A., & Horns, D. (2026) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202555415
No evidence for Keplerian taper of far-out galactic rotation in the SPARC galaxy database
Bariego-Quintana, A., & Llanes–Estrada, F. J. (2026) · New Astronomy · doi:10.1016/j.newast.2026.102537
The odd primordial halo of the Milky Way implied by Gaia : A shallow core, but a steep decline
Li, P., McGaugh, S., Pawlowski, M. S., Hammer, F., & Sellwood, J. A. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557021
Self-citationThree Models of the Gravitational Potential of the Milky Way
Бобылев, В. В., Bajkova, A. T., & Smirnov, A. A. (2025) · Astronomy Reports · doi:10.1134/s1063772925702178
Local Jeans estimates of the Galaxy’s circular velocity, based on RGB stars from the Gaia catalogue
Fedorov, P. N., Dmytrenko, A., Akhmetov, V. S., Velichko, A. B., Железняк, А. П., Khramtsov, V., Denyshchenko, S. I., Vavilova, I. B., Dobrycheva, D. V., Sergijenko, O., et al. (2026) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stag1310
The Baryonic Mass and Size of the Milky Way Galaxy from the Local Static Cosmological PerturbationsPreprint
Biswas, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5520813
Dark matter in galactic structure: From the milky way to the high redshift universe
Argüelles, C. R., Becerra‐Vergara, E. A., Collazo, S., Crespi, V., Deluca, A., Krut, A., Mestre, M. F., Pelle, J., Rueda, J. A., RUFFINI, R. J., et al. (2026) · International Journal of Modern Physics D · doi:10.1142/s0218271825400188
Biswas, S. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6193881
Role of Dark Matter in the Dynamics of Compact-Object Binaries
Argüelles, C. R., Crespi, V., Rodriguez-Ruiz, J. F., & Rueda, J. A. (2026) · Symmetry · doi:10.3390/sym18030484
Axisymmetric Jeans modelling systematically overestimates the circular speed in the inner Milky Way
Yamaguchi, T., & Baba, J. (2026) · Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan · doi:10.1093/pasj/psag066
Rotation Curves of Galaxies: A New Theoretical Approach and Comparison With Observations
Klačka, J. (2026) · Advances in Astronomy · doi:10.1155/aa/8364318
Constraining the Geometry of Galactic Dark Matter with Gaia Data Release 3
Labini, F. S., & Capuzzo-Dolcetta, R. (2026) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae7be7
Synchrotron self-Compton process for constraining sub-GeV dark matter in Omega Centauri via SKA
Anonymous, Su, B., Yang, Y., Zhang, B., & Feng, L. (2026) · Physical review. D/Physical review. D. · doi:10.1103/99qh-v2fy
Self-citationInvestigation of high-quality spectra of a sample of high-radial-velocity stars
Alazzawi, J., Caffau, E., Bonifacio, P., Çal, S., Monaco, L., Sbordone, L., & Lombardo, L. (2026) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202659789
Metadata
- Authors
- Jiao, Y., Hammer, F., Wang, H., Wang, J., Amram, P., Chemin, L., & Yang, Y.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Centro Ricerche Enrico Fermi (IT)
- Universidad Andrés Bello (CL)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Astronomy & Astrophysics
- Publisher
- EDP Sciences
- Published
- 2023-10
- Volume
- 678
- Pages
- A208
- ISSN
- 0004-6361 (ISSN-L)
- 1432-0746
- OpenAlex
- W4386437529
- Cited by
- 107
- References
- 94
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 3
- FWCI
- 12.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Astronomy and Astrophysics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Repositorio Institucional Académico , Sistema de Bibliotecas Universidad Andrés Bello (UNAB) (Universidad Andrés Bello (UNAB)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- China Scholarship Council
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- Institute of High Energy Physics
- National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations
- Keywords
- Milky Way rotation curve, galaxy mass, Gaia DR3, systematic uncertainties, distance estimates, flat rotation curves, Galactic disc
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