Clinical Prediction Rules: Applications and Methodological Standards

Wasson, John H.; Sox, Harold C.; Neff, Raymond K.; Goldman, Lee

doi:10.1056/nejm198509263131306

Cited by 1,357Statistical Methods in EpidemiologyClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic SkillsMeta-analysis and systematic reviews

Clinical Prediction Rules: Applications and Methodological Standards

Wasson, John H., Sox, Harold C., Neff, Raymond K., Goldman, Lee·1985·New England Journal of Medicine

DOI 10.1056/nejm198509263131306

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

The objective of clinical prediction rules is to reduce the uncertainty inherent in medical practice by defining how to use clinical findings to make predictions. Clinical prediction rules are derived from systematic clinical observations. They can help physicians identify patients who require diagnostic tests, treatment, or hospitalization. Before adopting a prediction rule, clinicians must evaluate its applicability to their patients. We describe methodological standards that can be used to decide whether a prediction rule is suitable for adoption in a clinician's practice. We applied these standards to 33 reports of prediction rules; 42 per cent of the reports contained an adequate description of the prediction rules, the patients, and the clinical setting. The misclassification rate of the rule was measured in only 34 per cent of reports, and the effects of the rule on patient care were described in only 6 per cent of reports. If the objectives of clinical prediction rules are to be fully achieved, authors and readers need to pay close attention to basic principles of study design.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1056/nejm198509263131306

Cites

57 of 57 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Various reports have indicated that in prediction modelling research there is an unfortunate practice of developing new models instead of externally validating or updating existing models.
“Various reports have indicated that in prediction modelling research there is an unfortunate practice of developing new models instead of externally validating or updating existing models [8]–[10],[15],[29],[36],[48].”
From Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review (2012) · cites this paper as [29]

Regression Models and Life-Tables
Cox, D. R. (1972) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology · doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x · Cited by 39,793 · see citing works
Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations
Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1958.10501452 · Cited by 39,158 · see citing works
Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife
Efron, B. (1979) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1176344552 · Cited by 17,602 · see citing works
Bias in analytic research
Sackett, D. L. (1979) · Journal of Chronic Diseases · doi:10.1016/0021-9681(79)90012-2 · Cited by 2,075 · see citing works
Problems of Spectrum and Bias in Evaluating the Efficacy of Diagnostic Tests
Ransohoff, D. F., & Feinstein, A. R. (1978) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm197810262991705 · Cited by 1,739 · see citing works
Risk Stratification and Survival after Myocardial Infarction
The Multicenter Postinfarction Research Group (1983) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198308113090602 · Cited by 1,599 · see citing works
Computer-Intensive Methods in Statistics
Diaconis, P. W., & Efron, B. (1983) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0583-116 · Cited by 1,157 · see citing works
Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Risk with Common Predispositions
Fowler, A. A., HAMMAN, R. F., GOOD, J. T., BENSON, K. N., BAIRD, M., EBERLE, D. J., PETTY, T. L., & HYERS, T. M. (1983) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-98-5-593 · Cited by 793 · see citing works
A Predictive Instrument to Improve Coronary-Care-Unit Admission Practices in Acute Ischemic Heart Disease
Pozen, M. W., D’Agostino, R. B., Selker, H. P., Sytkowski, P. A., & Hood, W. B. (1984) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198405173102001 · Cited by 596 · see citing works
A Computer-Derived Protocol to Aid in the Diagnosis of Emergency Room Patients with Acute Chest Pain
Goldman, L., Weinberg, M. S., Weisberg, M. C., Olshen, R. A., Cook, E. F., Rk, S., Ga, L., Dennis, C. A., Wilson, C., Deckelbaum, L. I., et al. (1982) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198209023071004 · Cited by 502 · see citing works
Self-citation
Estimation of Error Rates in Discriminant Analysis
Lachenbruch, P. A., & Mickey, M. R. (1968) · Technometrics · doi:10.2307/1266219 · Cited by 463 · see citing works
Clinical biostatistics
Feinstein, A. R. (1977) · Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1002/cpt1977224485 · Cited by 436 · see citing works
Risk Factors for Nephrotoxicity in Patients Treated with Aminoglycosides
Moore, R. D., Smith, C. R., Lipsky, J. J., Mellits, E. D., & Lietman, P. S. (1984) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-100-3-352 · Cited by 413 · see citing works
Prognosis in Nontraumatic Coma
Levy, D. E., BATES, D., CARONNA, J. J., CARTLIDGE, N. E. F., KNILL-JONES, R. P., LAPINSKI, R. H., SINGER, B. H., SHAW, D. A., & PLUM, F. (1981) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-94-3-293 · Cited by 396 · see citing works
A Recursive Partitioning Decision Rule for Nonparametric Classification
Friedman (1977) · IEEE Transactions on Computers · doi:10.1109/tc.1977.1674849 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Risk of Infection after Penetrating Abdominal Trauma
Nichols, R. L., Smith, J. W., Klein, D. B., et al. (1984) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198410253111701 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Statistical Analysis: A Computer Oriented Approach.
Afifi, A. A., & Azen, S. P. (1973) · Biometrics · doi:10.2307/2529182 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
An Index Predicting Relapse and Need for Hospitalization in Patients with Acute Bronchial Asthma
Fischl, M. A., Pitchenik, A. E., & Gardner, L. B. (1981) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198110013051402 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Prediction of Awakening after Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest
Longstreth, W. T., Diehr, P. K., & Inui, T. S. (1983) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198306093082302 · Cited by 261 · see citing works
Involuntary Weight Loss: Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance
Marton, K. I., SOX, H. C., & KRUPP, J. R. (1981) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-95-5-568 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Self-citation
A QRS Scoring System for Assessing Left Ventricular Function after Myocardial Infarction
Palmeri, S. T., Harrison, D. G., Cobb, F. R., Morris, K. G., Harrell, F. E., Ideker, R. E., Selvester, R. H. S., & Wagner, G. S. (1982) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198201073060102 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Identification of Alcohol Abuse Using Laboratory Tests and a History of Trauma
Skinner, H. A., HOLT, S., SCHULLER, R., et al. (1984) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-101-6-847 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Psychologically Mediated Effects of Diagnostic Tests
Sox, H. C., MARGULIES, I., & SOX, C. H. (1981) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-95-6-680 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Self-citation
Establishing the cause of genitourinary symptoms in women in a family practice. Comparison of clinical examination and comprehensive microbiology
Berg, A. O. (1984) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.251.5.620 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Risk Factors for Persistent Middle-Ear Effusions
Kraemer, M. J. (1983) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.249.8.1022 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
The assessment of diagnostic tests. A survey of current medical research
Sheps, S. B. (1984) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.252.17.2418 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Predicting Survival in Adults with End-Stage Renal Disease: An Age Equivalence Index
Hutchinson, T. A., THOMAS, D. C., & MACGIBBON, B. (1982) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-96-4-417 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Prognosis in Childhood Epilepsy
Thurston, J. H., Thurston, D. L., Hixon, B. B., et al. (1982) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198204083061403 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Risk factors for persistent middle-ear effusions. Otitis media, catarrh, cigarette smoke exposure, and atopy.
Kraemer, M. J., Richardson, M. A., Weiss, N. S., et al. (1983) · PubMed · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Performance of an Index Predicting the Response of Patients with Acute Bronchial Asthma to Intensive Emergency Department Treatment
Rose, C. C., Murphy, J. G., & Schwartz, J. S. (1984) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198403013100906 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Algorithmic method for assessing urinary incontinence in elderly women.
Hilton, P., & Stanton, S. L. (1981) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.282.6268.940 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Inability to Predict Relapse in Acute Asthma
Centor, R. M., YARBROUGH, B. E., & Wood, J. P. (1984) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198403013100907 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
A Critique of Methodology in Studies of Anticoagulant Therapy for Acute Myocardial Infarction
Gifford, R. H., & Feinstein, A. R. (1969) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm196902132800703 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
A Protocol for Selecting Patients with Injured Extremities Who Need X-Rays
Brand, D. A., Frazier, W. H., Kohlhepp, W. C., et al. (1982) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198202113060604 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
A second look at the utility of radiographic skull examination for trauma
DeSmet, A. A., Fryback, D., & Thornbury (1979) · American Journal of Roentgenology · doi:10.2214/ajr.132.1.95 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
The ACLS score. Predicting survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
Eisenberg, M. S. (1981) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.246.1.50 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
The Usefulness of Chest Radiographs in First Asthma Attacks
Gershel, J. C., Goldman, H. S., Stein, R. E. K., et al. (1983) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198308113090603 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
The Assessment of Diagnostic Tests
Sheps, S. B. (1984) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1984.03350170020012 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Biochemical and Hematologic Correlates of Alcoholism and Liver Disease
Ryback, R. S. (1982) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1982.03330180021025 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
When to Perform Biopsies of Enlarged Peripheral Lymph Nodes in Young Patients
Slap, G. B. (1984) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1984.03350100051031 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Admission after mild head injury: benefits and costs.
Mendelow, A. D., Campbell, D. A., Jeffrey, R. R., Miller, J. D., Hessett, C., Bryden, J., & Jennett, B. (1982) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.285.6354.1530 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Factors predictive of attendance at clinic and blood pressure control in hypertensive patients.
Patrice Degoulet, A., Ménard, J., Vu, H. A., Golmard, J., Devries, C., Châtellier, G., & Plouin, P. (1983) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.287.6385.88 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Computer Diagnosis and Diagnostic Methods
Feinstein, A. R. (1973) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1973.03220280056034 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Scoring system to improve cost effectiveness of open access endoscopy.
Mann, J., Holdstock, G., Harman, M., et al. (1983) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.287.6397.937 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Estimation of Classification Error
Fukunaga, K., & Kessell, D. (1971) · IEEE Transactions on Computers · doi:10.1109/t-c.1971.223165 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Prognosis after myocardial infarction: results of 15 year follow up.
MERRILEES, M. A., Scott, P. J., & Norris, R. M. (1984) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.288.6414.356 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Hip fractures in the elderly. Discharge predictions with a functional rating scale
Keene, J. S. (1982) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.248.5.564 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Statistical Analysis: A Computer Oriented Approach (2nd Ed.)
Crump, P. P. (1982) · Technometrics · doi:10.1080/00401706.1982.10487766 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Predictors of Employment Status After Cardiac Surgery
Stanton, B. A. (1983) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1983.03330310037023 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Evaluation of Plain Abdominal Radiographs in the Diagnosis of Abdominal Pain
Eisenberg, R. L., Heineken, P., Hedgcock, M. W., et al. (1982) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-97-2-257 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Heterophil Antibody in Adults with Sore Throat
Aronson, M. D., KOMAROFF, A. L., PASS, T. M., et al. (1982) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-96-4-505 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Short-Acting Barbiturate Overdosage
McCarron, M. M. (1982) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1982.03330010029026 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Some Misuses of Discriminant Analysis
Lachenbruch, P. A. (1977) · Methods of Information in Medicine · doi:10.1055/s-0038-1636603 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Some Misuses of Discriminant Analysis
Lachenbruch, P. A. (1977) · Methods of Information in Medicine · doi:10.1055/s-0038-1636664 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
The Differential Diagnosis of Hypercalcemia
Wong, E. T. (1982) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1982.03320260053034 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
A methodology for construction of a multivariate diagnostic instrument: An application to alcohol abuse screening
Rawlings, R. R., Rae, D. S., Graubard, B. I., et al. (1982) · Computers and Biomedical Research · doi:10.1016/0010-4809(82)90058-1 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Preoperative prediction of significant coronary artery disease in patients with valvular heart disease.
Ramsdale, D. R., Faragher, E. B., Bennett, D. H., Bray, C. L., Ward, C., & Beton, D. C. (1982) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.284.6311.223 · Cited by 17 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): Explanation and Elaboration
Moons, K. G. M., Altman, D. G., Reitsma, J. B., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Macaskill, P., Steyerberg, E. W., Vickers, A. J., Ransohoff, D. F., & Collins, G. S. (2015) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m14-0698 · Cited by 5,147 · see citing works
Opportunities and obstacles for deep learning in biology and medicine
Ching, T., Himmelstein, D. S., Beaulieu-Jones, B. K., Kalinin, A. A., Do, B. T., Way, G. P., Ferrero, E., Agapow, P.-M., Zietz, M., Hoffman, M. M., et al. (2018) · Journal of The Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2017.0387 · Cited by 2,310 · see citing works
Critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies: the CHARMS checklist
Moons, K. G. M., de Groot, J. A. H., Bouwmeester, W., Vergouwe, Y., Mallett, S., Altman, D. G., Reitsma, J. B., & Collins, G. S. (2014) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001744 · Cited by 2,018 · see citing works
Clinical course and prediction of survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
Ley, B., Collard, H. R., & King, T. E. (2011) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.201006-0894ci · Cited by 1,765 · see citing works
PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration
Moons, K. G. M., Wolff, R. F., Riley, R. D., Whiting, P. F., Westwood, M., Collins, G. S., Reitsma, J. B., Kleijnen, J., & Mallett, S. (2019) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m18-1377 · Cited by 1,669 · see citing works
Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: Prognostic Model Research
Steyerberg, E. W., Moons, K. G. M., van der Windt, D. A., Hayden, J. A., Perel, P., Schroter, S., Riley, R. D., Hemingway, H., Altman, D. G., & for the PROGRESS Group (2013) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381 · Cited by 1,508 · see citing works
Simple scoring scheme for calculating the risk of acute coronary events based on the 10-year follow-up of the prospective cardiovascular Munster (PROCAM) study
Assmann, G., Cullen, P., & Schulte, H. (2002) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/hc0302.102575 · Cited by 1,541 · see citing works
Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how?
Moons, K. G. M., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Grobbee, D. E., & Altman, D. G. (2009) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.b375 · Cited by 1,337 · see citing works
Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism
Aujesky, D., Obrosky, D. S., Stone, R. A., Auble, T. E., Perrier, A., Cornuz, J., Roy, P.-M., & Fine, M. J. (2005) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.200506-862oc · Cited by 1,303 · see citing works
Risk prediction models: II. External validation, model updating, and impact assessment
Moons, K. G. M., Kengne, A. P., Grobbee, D. E., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Altman, D. G., & Woodward, M. (2012) · Heart · doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2011-301247 · Cited by 1,195 · see citing works
Prognosis and prognostic research: application and impact of prognostic models in clinical practice
Moons, K. G. M., Altman, D. G., Vergouwe, Y., & Royston, P. (2009) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.b606 · Cited by 934 · see citing works
Risk prediction models: I. Development, internal validation, and assessing the incremental value of a new (bio)marker
Moons, K. G. M., Kengne, A. P., Woodward, M., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Altman, D. G., & Grobbee, D. E. (2012) · Heart · doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2011-301246 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
Translating Clinical Research into Clinical Practice: Impact of Using Prediction Rules To Make Decisions
Reilly, B. M., & Evans, A. T. (2006) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-144-3-200602070-00009 · Cited by 794 · see citing works
External validation is necessary in prediction research:
Bleeker, S. E., Moll, H. A., Steyerberg, E. W., Donders, A. R. T., Derksen-Lubsen, G., Grobbee, D. E., & Moons, K. G. M. (2003) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00207-5 · Cited by 710 · see citing works
Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review
Bouwmeester, W., Zuithoff, N. P. A., Mallett, S., Geerlings, M. I., Vergouwe, Y., Steyerberg, E. W., Altman, D. G., & Moons, K. G. M. (2012) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001221 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
Identifying unprovoked thromboembolism patients at low risk for recurrence who can discontinue anticoagulant therapy
Rodger, M. A., Kahn, S. R., Wells, P. S., Anderson, D. A., Chagnon, I., Le Gal, G., Solymoss, S., Crowther, M., Perrier, A., White, R., et al. (2008) · Canadian Medical Association Journal · doi:10.1503/cmaj.080493 · Cited by 581 · see citing works
Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting
Collins, G. S., Mallett, S., Omar, O., & Yu, L.-M. (2011) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/1741-7015-9-103 · Cited by 484 · see citing works
Community-acquired bacterial meningitis: risk stratification for adverse clinical outcome and effect of antibiotic timing
Aronin, S. I., Peduzzi, P., & Quagliarello, V. J. (1998) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-129-11_part_1-199812010-00004 · Cited by 486 · see citing works
Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews
Geersing, G.-J., Bouwmeester, W., Zuithoff, P., Spijker, R., Leeflang, M., & Moons, K. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0032844 · Cited by 350 · see citing works
Risk factors for recurrence, complications and mortality in Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review
Abou Chakra, C. N., Pepin, J., Sirard, S., & Valiquette, L. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0098400 · Cited by 328 · see citing works
Clinical Prediction Rule for Identifying Children With Cerebrospinal Fluid Pleocytosis at Very Low Risk of Bacterial Meningitis
Nigrovic, L. E. (2007) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.297.1.52 · Cited by 306 · see citing works
Prospective validation of the San Francisco Syncope Rule to predict patients with serious outcomes
Quinn, J., McDermott, D., Stiell, I., Kohn, M., & Wells, G. (2006) · Annals of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2005.11.019 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Methodological guidance for the evaluation and updating of clinical prediction models: a systematic review
Binuya, M. A. E., Engelhardt, E. G., Schats, W., Schmidt, M. K., & Steyerberg, E. W. (2022) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01801-8 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Diagnostic and prognostic prediction models
Hendriksen, J. M. T., Geersing, G. J., Moons, K. G. M., & de Groot, J. A. H. (2013) · Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis · doi:10.1111/jth.12262 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
A clinical prediction rule to identify patients with atrial fibrillation and a low risk for stroke while taking aspirin
van Walraven, C., Hart, R. G., Wells, G. A., Petersen, P., Koudstaal, P. J., Gullov, A. L., Hellemons, B. S. P., Koefed, B. G., & Laupacis, A. (2003) · Archives of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/archinte.163.8.936 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Surveillance for ocular hypertension: an evidence synthesis and economic evaluation.
Burr, J., Botello-Pinzon, P., Takwoingi, Y., Hernández, R., Vazquez-Montes, M., Elders, A., Asaoka, R., Banister, K., van der Schoot, J., Fraser, C., et al. (2012) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta16290 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Derivation and validation of a clinical prediction rule for uncomplicated ureteral stone--the STONE score: retrospective and prospective observational cohort studies
Moore, C. L., Bomann, S., Daniels, B., Luty, S., Molinaro, A., Singh, D., & Gross, C. P. (2014) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.g2191 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Development and validation of a simple risk score to predict the need for permanent pacing after cardiac valve surgery
Koplan, B. A., Stevenson, W. G., Epstein, L. M., Aranki, S. F., & Maisel, W. H. (2003) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/s0735-1097(02)02926-1 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Failure to validate the San Francisco Syncope Rule in an independent emergency department population
Birnbaum, A., Esses, D., Bijur, P., Wollowitz, A., & Gallagher, E. J. (2008) · Annals of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2007.12.007 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Accuracy and Quality of Clinical Decision Rules for Syncope in the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Serrano, L. A., Hess, E. P., Bellolio, M. F., Murad, M. H., Montori, V. M., Erwin, P. J., & Decker, W. W. (2010) · Annals of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2010.05.013 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Validation of probabilistic predictions
Miller, M. E., Langefeld, C. D., Tierney, W. M., Hui, S. L., & McDonald, C. J. (1993) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x9301300107 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Guidelines You Can Follow and Can Trust: An Ideal and an Example
McDonald, C. J. (1994) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1994.03510350082042 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Tools, clinical prediction rules, and algorithms for the insertion of peripheral intravenous catheters in adult hospitalized patients: a systematic scoping review of literature
Carr, P. J., Higgins, N. S., Cooke, M. L., Rippey, J., & Rickard, C. M. (2017) · Journal of Hospital Medicine · doi:10.12788/jhm.2836 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTION RULES: PRINCIPLES, REQUIREMENTS, AND PITFALLS
Knottnerus, J. A. (1995) · Primary Care: Clinics in Office Practice · doi:10.1016/s0095-4543(21)00522-4 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Predicting OptimaL cAncer RehabIlitation and Supportive care (POLARIS): rationale and design for meta-analyses of individual patient data of randomized controlled trials that evaluate the effect of physical activity and psychosocial interventions on health-related quality of life in cancer survivors
Buffart, L. M., Kalter, J., Chinapaw, M. J., Heymans, M. W., Aaronson, N. K., Courneya, K. S., Jacobsen, P. B., Newton, R. U., Verdonck-de Leeuw, I. M., & Brug, J. (2013) · Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1186/2046-4053-2-75 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Possible contribution of advanced statistical methods (artificial neural networks and linear discriminant analysis) in recognition of patients with suspected atrophic body gastritis
Lahner, E. (2005) · World Journal of Gastroenterology · doi:10.3748/wjg.v11.i37.5867 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study
Ban, J.-W., Emparanza, J. I., Urreta, I., & Burls, A. (2016) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0145779 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Evaluation of artificial neural networks in the classification of primary oesophageal dysmotility
Santos, R., Haack, H. G., Maddalena, D., Hansen, R. D., & Kellow, J. E. (2006) · Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology · doi:10.1080/00365520500234030 · Cited by 10 · see citing works

Authors: Wasson, J. H., Sox, H. C., Neff, R. K., & Goldman, L.
ORCID: Wasson, John H.
Venue: New England Journal of Medicine
Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
Published: 1985-09-26
Volume: 313
Issue: 13
Pages: 793-799
ISSN: 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
1533-4406
DOI: 10.1056/nejm198509263131306
OpenAlex: W2012301002
Cited by: 1,357
References: 57
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 34 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 58 · 2012: 63
FWCI: 3.63
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Keywords: clinical prediction rules, methodological standards, misclassification rate, research design, clinical decision-making, reporting quality
MeSH terms: Diagnostic Errors, Heart Arrest, Humans, Probability, Prognosis, Statistics as Topic

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Clinical Prediction Rules: Applications and Methodological Standards

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks